Boise State Broncos vs Nebraska Cornhuskers basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET · Sanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, SD (neutral site)

Neutral siteNon-conferenceBTNSanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, SD
Boise St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #63
vs
25Nebraska
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #16
Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Boise St is the faster team (83.8, #3 of 365) and Nebraska the slower (71.6, #151). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
72.3
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.9#58
Boise St
69.9#226
Nebraska

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Nebraska has the ball+2.5
Boise St has the ball−3.4
Nebraska has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 58.3% #48 · BOIS allows 44.6% #73+1.8
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.1% #118 · BOIS forces 17.9% #186 · ~12 turnovers+1.3
✗Few second chancesOR% 32.2% #165 · BOIS allows 27.9% #122−0.6
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 45.6% #83 · BOIS allows 21.6% #29 · FT 76.9% #750.0
Boise St has the ball
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 21.5% #334 · NEB allows 22.9% #34 · FT 64.7% #258−1.8
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 56.3% #81 · NEB allows 41.9% #42−0.8
✗Few second chancesOR% 31.1% #189 · NEB allows 29.7% #153−0.5
✗Coughs it upTO% 11.9% #22 · NEB forces 24.4% #32 · ~13 turnovers−0.3

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Boise Stoffense vs#25Nebraskadefense
Share of shots by zone
Boise St shoots
Nebraska allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim42.9%#32456.0%#15158.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)16.7%#29933.3%#12538.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)0.0%#32727.3%#10634.7%
Three48.6%#525.4%#5332.5%
#25Nebraskaoffense vsBoise Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Nebraska shoots
Boise St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim74.2%#2363.2%#24458.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)66.7%#2920.0%#5438.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)85.7%#6—34.7%
Three35.2%#12422.2%#2332.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Boise St
+5.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#100 of 365
Off reb %
31.1%
#189
Def reb %
72.1%
#122
Turnover %
11.9%
#22
Forced TO %
17.9%
#186
FT rate
21.5%
#334
FT allowed
21.6%
#29
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+4.5
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−4.1
Foul shots allowed+4.3
#25Nebraska
+13.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#29 of 365
Off reb %
32.2%
#165
Def reb %
70.3%
#153
Turnover %
16.1%
#118
Forced TO %
24.4%
#32
FT rate
45.6%
#83
FT allowed
22.9%
#34
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers+4.5
Foul shots drawn+2.1
Foul shots allowed+3.9

Nebraska has more extra scoring chances per game: +13.0 (#29 of 365) to Boise St’s +5.6 (#100).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
Boise St2026-27 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1GSo6'2"2-230.517.54.56.53.056.0%66.7%3.0100.0%26.4%Active
13FSr6'9"2-224.016.011.52.51.557.1%0.0%0.557.1%29.9%Active
16FSo6'10"2-224.017.05.01.52.062.0%38.5%6.550.0%31.1%Active
10GSr6'0"2-223.014.53.04.01.565.0%46.2%6.5100.0%24.7%Active
6FJr6'7"2-019.511.03.51.50.070.0%62.5%4.050.0%19.1%Active
0GJr6'3"2-217.58.03.51.50.538.9%20.0%5.0100.0%26.5%Active
11GSr6'2"2-016.57.01.02.00.587.5%57.1%3.5—12.7%Active
7FJr6'8"2-015.510.511.02.50.577.3%50.0%1.066.7%22.2%Active
3FSo6'8"1-021.016.07.04.01.062.5%33.3%3.016.7%34.4%Missed last
30FJr6'10"2-010.03.05.00.00.050.0%—0.0—13.9%Active
35FJr6'9"1-011.05.03.00.00.050.0%25.0%4.0—20.7%Missed last
5GFr6'7"1-05.02.01.01.00.0100.0%—0.0—9.1%Missed last

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Boise St#25Nebraska
Efficiency
111.8
113.1
101.7
93.6
72.9
69.9
8.3
-1.9
Shooting
56.3%
58.3%
43.2%
63.3%
48.6%
35.2%
64.7%
76.9%
21.5%
45.6%
Ball control & glass
11.9%
16.1%
17.9%
24.4%
31.1%
32.2%
27.9%
29.7%
4.8%
3.5%
4.5%
8.3%
Style
44.3%
47.4%
36.0%
40.5%
11.0%
8.1%
61.1%
68.4%
40.2%
35.1%
Roster
2.97
3.42
6'5.6"
6'7.3"
27.5%
39.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Boise St
Returning minutes: 27.5%Returning production: 20.6%
Lost
  • Andrew Meadow 30.0 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Oregon
  • Dylan Andrews 29.3 mpg, 12.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Javan Buchanan 27.0 mpg, 12.3 ppg · transferred to West Virginia
  • Drew Fielder 23.7 mpg, 14.7 ppg · transferred to Alabama
  • R.J. Keene II 21.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to NC State
  • Dominic Parolin 17.0 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Dovydas Butka from Campbell · 30.9 mpg, 12.7 ppg last season
  • Damari Wheeler-Thomas from N Dakota St · 27.9 mpg, 13.2 ppg last season
  • Lamar Washington from Georgia Tech · 26.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
  • Jerquarius Stanback from Alabama St · 24.6 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
  • Ty Rodgers no D1 minutes last season
  • Jikany Deang no D1 minutes last season

Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

#25Nebraska
Returning minutes: 39.8%Returning production: 42.4%
Lost
  • Sam Hoiberg 32.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Rienk Mast 28.5 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jamarques Lawrence 27.9 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Berke Buyuktuncel 22.9 mpg, 6.2 ppg · transferred to Vanderbilt
  • Jared Garcia 6.7 mpg, 2.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kendall Blue 1.9 mpg, 0.4 ppg · transferred to St Thomas
Added
  • Trevan Leonhardt from Utah Valley · 34.5 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
  • Boden Kapke from Boston College · 26.8 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
  • Damon Wilkinson from S Dakota St · 24.0 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
  • Sam Orme from Belmont · 23.2 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
  • Taj DeGourville from San Diego St · 19.4 mpg, 5.5 ppg last season
  • Kadyn Betts from Montana · 1.7 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season

Returns 40% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 15

← Sat, Nov 14 · Mon, Nov 16 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.