Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs Eastern Illinois Panthers basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 15 · 3:00 PM ET · Groniger Arena, Charleston, IL

Non-conferenceESPN+Groniger Arena, Charleston, IL

Purdue FW

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #237

E Illinois

0-3 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #348

Sun, Nov 15 · 3:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Purdue FW is the faster team (71.1, #167 of 365) and E Illinois the slower (69.6, #217). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.7

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.6#176

Purdue FW

70.6#179

E Illinois

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

E Illinois has the ball−7.7

Purdue FW has the ball+7.3

E Illinois has the ball

✗Coughs it upTO% 27.8% #348 · PFW forces 21.1% #83 · ~18 turnovers−6.3

✗Few second chancesOR% 21.3% #328 · PFW allows 30.8% #171−3.2

✓Shoots it welleFG% 47.2% #237 · PFW allows 57.3% #300+1.8

✓Gets to the lineFTR 38.5% #157 · PFW allows 36.4% #179 · FT 70.9% #161+0.1

Purdue FW has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.0% #176 · EIU allows 67.5% #352+8.7

✗Few second chancesOR% 25.6% #279 · EIU allows 34.9% #252−1.1

✗Coughs it upTO% 19.7% #237 · EIU forces 18.2% #169 · ~13 turnovers−0.7

✓Gets to the lineFTR 19.7% #343 · EIU allows 44.0% #261 · FT 83.3% #21+0.4

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Purdue FWoffense vsE Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Purdue FW shoots

42.6

6.6

8.2

42.6

E Illinois allows

47.2

2.8

9.3

40.7

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	38.5%#346	76.5%#346	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	0.0%#323	0.0%#1	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	20.0%#279	60.0%#329	34.7%
Three	50.0%#3	43.6%#330	32.5%

E Illinoisoffense vsPurdue FWdefense

Share of shots by zone

E Illinois shoots

48.4

7.7

19.8

24.2

Purdue FW allows

56.4

7.3

29.1

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	52.3%#246	67.7%#282	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	28.6%#235	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	27.8%#233	25.0%#85	34.7%
Three	26.5%#271	31.3%#153	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Purdue FW

−4.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#245 of 365

Off reb %

25.6%

#279

Def reb %

69.2%

#171

Turnover %

19.7%

#237

Forced TO %

21.1%

#83

FT rate

19.7%

#343

FT allowed

36.4%

#179

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.0

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn−4.6

Foul shots allowed+0.4

E Illinois

−12.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#325 of 365

Off reb %

21.3%

#328

Def reb %

65.1%

#252

Turnover %

27.8%

#348

Forced TO %

18.2%

#169

FT rate

38.5%

#157

FT allowed

44.0%

#261

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.4

Defensive rebounding−1.1

Ball security−6.8

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+0.3

Foul shots allowed−1.6

Purdue FW has more extra scoring chances per game: −4.8 (#245 of 365) to E Illinois’s −12.5 (#325).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Purdue FW2026-27 numbers

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage	Status
0	G	Jr	6'3"	2-2	25.5	8.0	4.5	3.5	1.0	39.5%	27.3%	5.5	50.0%	23.0%	Active
9	G	Sr	6'0"	2-2	23.5	11.0	3.5	4.5	1.5	58.8%	28.6%	3.5	100.0%	24.0%	Active
1	F	Sr	6'6"	2-2	21.0	14.5	4.5	1.0	1.5	76.5%	—	0.0	75.0%	28.2%	Active
20	F	Jr	6'9"	2-2	20.0	3.5	3.5	0.5	1.5	75.0%	100.0%	1.0	50.0%	10.8%	Active
4	G	Sr	6'2"	2-0	19.5	5.5	1.0	4.0	4.0	56.3%	42.9%	3.5	100.0%	23.1%	Active
5	G	So	6'0"	2-2	18.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	35.7%	33.3%	3.0	100.0%	25.0%	Active
2	G	Jr	6'5"	2-0	15.0	5.5	1.5	0.0	0.0	91.7%	75.0%	2.0	—	10.4%	Active
7	G	Jr	6'6"	2-0	15.0	12.0	2.5	0.0	1.5	68.8%	50.0%	4.0	66.7%	35.7%	Active
24	G	So	6'5"	2-0	10.5	10.5	2.5	0.0	0.5	90.9%	75.0%	4.0	50.0%	31.1%	Active
3	G	Fr	6'5"	1-0	17.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	30.0%	50.0%	2.0	100.0%	19.8%	Missed last
11	G	Fr	6'1"	1-0	17.0	10.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	3.0	—	32.1%	Active
31	F	Fr	6'9"	2-0	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	12.5%	Active
34	F	Fr	6'11"	1-0	11.0	6.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	75.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	22.3%	Active
13	G	Fr	6'1"	1-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	33.1%	Active
23	G	Fr	6'2"	1-0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%	Active

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

Purdue FW

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +2.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg vs total −3.5

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	Albion Britons	H	W 103–65	—	—	—	—	130.3	82.2	79.0
Nov 3	DuquesneAdjEM #138	A	L 71–78	+9.5	W+2.5	152.5	U149	99.9	109.7	71.1
Mar 3	Green BayAdjEM #166	A	L 56–64	+4.5	L−3.5	145.0	U120	96.7	110.6	57.9
Feb 28	IU IndyAdjEM #288	A	W 87–81	−1.0	W+5.0	160.5	O168	125.0	116.4	69.6
Feb 25	Wright StAdjEM #77	H	L 70–74	+1.0	L−3.0	152.0	U144	98.7	104.3	70.9
Feb 22	Cleveland StAdjEM #356	A	W 92–86	−3.0	W+3.0	163.0	O178	120.7	112.8	76.2
Feb 18	N KentuckyAdjEM #171	A	L 71–87	+6.0	L−10.0	154.0	O158	99.7	122.1	71.2
Feb 15	IU IndyAdjEM #288	H	W 83–78	−6.5	L−1.5	158.5	O161	110.7	104.1	75.0
Feb 12	Green BayAdjEM #166	A	L 59–76	+1.5	L−15.5	144.5	U135	100.1	129.0	58.9
Feb 7	Wright StAdjEM #77	A	L 68–73	+7.0	W+2.0	150.0	U141	109.2	117.2	62.3

E Illinois

Against the spread

Season

2-1

Home

0-0

Road

2-1

Last 10

2-1

avg cover −1.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

3-0

Home

0-0

Road

3-0

Last 10

3-0

avg vs total +10.3

Over 3 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	Notre DameAdjEM #79	A	L 70–94	+28.0	W+4.0	139.5	O164	95.4	128.2	73.3
Nov 6	IowaAdjEM #17	A	L 47–91	+35.0	L−9.0	135.0	O138	72.5	140.5	64.8
Nov 2	IndianaAdjEM #41	A	L 57–91	+34.5	W+0.5	144.5	O148	80.6	128.6	70.8
Mar 5	UT MartinAdjEM #177	N	L 63–66	+8.0	W+5.0	126.0	O129	101.8	106.7	61.9
Mar 4	SIUEAdjEM #262	N	W 77–71 OT	+4.5	W+10.5	128.0	O148	111.5	102.8	69.0
Feb 28	SIUEAdjEM #262	A	L 50–77	+6.0	L−21.0	130.0	U127	83.0	127.9	60.2
Feb 26	LindenwoodAdjEM #280	A	W 71–67	+7.5	W+11.5	144.0	U138	102.7	96.9	69.2
Feb 21	S IndianaAdjEM #304	H	L 68–70	−4.5	L−6.5	136.0	O138	103.9	106.9	65.5
Feb 19	Morehead StAdjEM #336	H	L 70–73	+1.0	L−2.0	136.5	O143	105.5	110.0	66.3
Feb 14	Little RockAdjEM #284	H	W 78–72	+1.5	W+7.5	135.5	O150	117.5	108.4	66.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Purdue FWE Illinois

Efficiency

103.8

95.7

108.4

111.8

70.6

1.8

13.7

Shooting

50.0%

47.2%

31.4%

49.5%

50.0%

26.5%

83.3%

70.9%

19.7%

38.5%

Ball control & glass

19.7%

27.8%

21.1%

18.2%

25.6%

21.3%

30.8%

34.9%

11.3%

19.6%

11.4%

10.1%

Style

42.6%

23.8%

28.2%

51.7%

15.5%

5.2%

66.7%

58.7%

45.9%

51.3%

Roster

2.86

3.30

6'4.1"

6'4.7"

28.2%

10.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Purdue FW

Returning minutes: 28.2%Returning production: 25.4%

Lost

Corey Hadnot II 33.2 mpg, 20.4 ppg · transferred to Houston
Mikale Stevenson 29.8 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Maximus Nelson 27.5 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Darius Duffy 21.6 mpg, 5.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Deangelo Elisee 13.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Yuval Levin 9.6 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Anthony Isaac Jr. from Manhattan · 23.8 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
Ashton Williamson from FIU · 18.4 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
Jaiden Arnold no D1 minutes last season
Tamaje Izuagbe no D1 minutes last season
Adam Walker no D1 minutes last season
Luke Balanis no D1 minutes last season

Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

E Illinois

Returning minutes: 10.1%Returning production: 6.2%

Lost

Kooper Jacobi 33.3 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Meechie White 30.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Indiana St
Zion Fruster 28.8 mpg, 13.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Terry McMorris 26.1 mpg, 7.6 ppg · transferred to San Diego
Preston Turner 19.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg · transferred to UTSA
Nazareth Fisher 13.4 mpg, 3.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Devin Davenport no D1 minutes last season
Gavin Welch no D1 minutes last season
Daniel Ntambwe no D1 minutes last season
Jayden Wright no D1 minutes last season
Jalen Calloway no D1 minutes last season
Ethan Hillsman no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 15

Niagara at Iowa State · 1:00 PM ET
Harvard at American · 1:00 PM ET
Louisville at Memphis · 1:00 PM ET
Dartmouth at Boston U · 1:00 PM ET
Colgate at Delaware · 1:00 PM ET
Quinnipiac at C Connecticut · 1:00 PM ET
Norfolk St at Georgia St · 1:00 PM ET
Boise St vs Nebraska · 1:00 PM ET
New Hampshire at Boston College · 1:30 PM ET
William & Mary at Michigan · 2:00 PM ET
Princeton at Rhode Island · 2:00 PM ET
Bakersfield at N Dakota St · 2:00 PM ET
UAlbany at Holy Cross · 2:00 PM ET
Temple at La Salle · 2:00 PM ET
SC State at Charleston · 2:00 PM ET
Missouri vs Marquette · 2:30 PM ET
Baylor vs Texas · 3:00 PM ET
Creighton vs Iowa · 3:00 PM ET
High Point at Saint Louis · 3:00 PM ET
Cleveland St at Alabama A&M · 3:00 PM ET
Chicago St at LMU · 4:00 PM ET
Mercyhurst at James Madison · 4:00 PM ET
New Mexico St vs San Diego St · 4:00 PM ET
New Haven at Penn State · 4:30 PM ET
W Michigan at S Indiana · 4:30 PM ET
Pepperdine at Oregon · 5:00 PM ET
Canisius at Buffalo · 5:30 PM ET
Cal Poly at Montana St · 6:00 PM ET
Syracuse at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
AR-Pine Bluff at USC · 7:00 PM ET
Coastal at Wisconsin · 8:00 PM ET
Texas St at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
Florida A&M at UTEP · 8:00 PM ET
Alabama St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET

← Sat, Nov 14 · Mon, Nov 16 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.