New Mexico State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs basketball preview & prediction

Sun, Nov 15 · 4:00 PM ET · Frontwave Arena, Oceanside, CA (neutral site)

Compete 4 Cause ClassicNeutral siteNon-conferenceCWFrontwave Arena, Oceanside, CA

New Mexico St

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #231

San Diego St

2-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #51

Sun, Nov 15 · 4:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, San Diego St is the faster team (77.0, #38 of 365) and New Mexico St the slower (70.1, #202). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.8

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.7#248

New Mexico St

72.6#63

San Diego St

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

San Diego St has the ball+24.0

New Mexico St has the ball−5.9

San Diego St has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 55.7% #97 · NMSU allows 71.8% #358+14.4

✓Wins second chancesOR% 41.0% #40 · NMSU allows 39.3% #308+4.5

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 22.7% #308 · NMSU forces 8.6% #355 · ~10 turnovers+3.2

✓Gets to the lineFTR 56.5% #21 · NMSU allows 46.8% #279 · FT 78.5% #57+1.9

New Mexico St has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 47.9% #224 · SDSU allows 45.2% #82−4.0

✗Coughs it upTO% 27.1% #346 · SDSU forces 14.3% #288 · ~15 turnovers−2.3

✓Gets to the lineFTR 50.0% #55 · SDSU allows 38.9% #202 · FT 91.7% #2+2.0

✗Few second chancesOR% 32.1% #167 · SDSU allows 23.2% #46−1.6

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

New Mexico Stoffense vsSan Diego Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

New Mexico St shoots

45.0

17.5

15.0

22.5

San Diego St allows

35.2

10.2

13.9

40.7

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.1%#134	65.8%#270	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	57.1%#53	9.1%#30	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.3%#174	33.3%#155	34.7%
Three	28.6%#233	28.1%#94	32.5%

San Diego Stoffense vsNew Mexico Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

San Diego St shoots

25.0

20.0

21.0

34.0

New Mexico St allows

42.9

10.2

36.7

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	68.0%#70	71.4%#318	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.0%#228	40.0%#193	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	47.6%#71	80.0%#349	34.7%
Three	42.1%#43	54.2%#357	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

New Mexico St

−14.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#342 of 365

Off reb %

32.1%

#167

Def reb %

60.7%

#308

Turnover %

27.1%

#346

Forced TO %

8.6%

#355

FT rate

50.0%

#55

FT allowed

46.8%

#279

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding−2.6

Ball security−6.3

Forcing turnovers−6.7

Foul shots drawn+3.3

Foul shots allowed−2.3

San Diego St

+4.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#110 of 365

Off reb %

41.0%

#40

Def reb %

76.8%

#46

Turnover %

22.7%

#308

Forced TO %

14.3%

#288

FT rate

56.5%

#21

FT allowed

38.9%

#202

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+3.1

Defensive rebounding+2.8

Ball security−3.2

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn+5.0

Foul shots allowed−0.2

San Diego St has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.8 (#110 of 365) to New Mexico St’s −14.4 (#342).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

New Mexico St2026-27 numbers

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage	Status
4	F	Jr	6'6"	2-2	33.5	8.0	3.5	0.0	1.5	77.8%	—	0.0	100.0%	11.2%	Active
0	G	Sr	6'3"	2-2	28.5	16.0	3.0	1.5	1.5	59.1%	50.0%	6.0	85.7%	28.9%	Active
32	F	So	6'8"	2-2	28.0	18.0	7.0	0.0	1.5	43.8%	25.0%	2.0	88.2%	36.3%	Active
1	G	Jr	6'0"	2-2	24.0	3.0	2.0	5.0	1.0	16.7%	0.0%	1.0	100.0%	12.0%	Active
13	G	Jr	6'1"	2-0	17.0	7.0	0.0	2.0	0.5	75.0%	40.0%	2.5	50.0%	18.6%	Active
7	G	Sr	6'0"	2-0	14.0	5.5	2.5	0.5	4.0	31.8%	20.0%	2.5	100.0%	43.3%	Active
30	F	Fr	6'8"	2-0	13.5	0.0	2.0	0.5	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	2.1%	Active
15	C	Sr	7'0"	2-0	13.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	1.5	40.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	19.9%	Active
24	F	So	6'9"	2-2	11.5	4.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	42.9%	—	0.0	100.0%	25.1%	Active
3	G	Fr	6'5"	2-0	10.0	3.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	42.9%	0.0%	1.0	—	20.3%	Active
21	G	Sr	6'6"	1-0	6.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	75.0%	50.0%	2.0	75.0%	47.7%	Missed last
5	G	Fr	6'1"	1-0	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%	Active
2	G	Fr	6'4"	1-0	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	2.0	—	38.4%	Active
11	G	Fr	6'2"	1-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	57.6%	Active

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

New Mexico St

Against the spread

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg cover −12.0

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +25.0

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	#15GonzagaAdjEM #6	A	L 68–109	+29.0	L−12.0	152.0	O177	97.0	155.5	70.1
Nov 3	Western New Mexico Mustangs	H	W 73–66	—	—	—	—	105.0	94.9	69.5
Mar 11	Sam HoustonAdjEM #123	N	L 61–69	+4.5	L−3.5	155.0	U130	85.3	96.5	71.5
Mar 10	Jax StateAdjEM #189	N	W 68–63	−1.5	W+3.5	142.0	U131	105.9	98.1	64.2
Mar 7	Kennesaw StAdjEM #153	H	W 79–76	−1.0	W+2.0	157.5	U155	116.9	112.5	67.6
Mar 5	Jax StateAdjEM #189	H	W 77–75 OT	−6.0	L−4.0	145.5	O152	101.5	98.8	75.9
Feb 28	MTSUAdjEM #241	A	L 85–86 OT	+5.5	W+4.5	148.0	O171	113.0	114.3	75.2
Feb 26	Western KYAdjEM #131	A	L 70–93	+5.5	L−17.5	151.5	O163	88.7	117.8	78.9
Feb 21	UTEPAdjEM #243	H	W 67–63	−7.0	L−3.0	143.0	U130	115.0	108.2	58.3
Feb 14	Jax StateAdjEM #189	A	W 79–70	+2.5	W+11.5	140.5	O149	119.9	106.3	65.9

San Diego St

Against the spread

Season

2-0

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

2-0

avg cover +9.2

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

1-0

Road

0-0

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +7.5

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	ColoradoAdjEM #84	N	W 77–66	−3.0	W+8.0	152.5	U143	103.6	88.8	74.3
Nov 3	FullertonAdjEM #197	H	W 102–78	−13.5	W+10.5	155.5	O180	127.9	97.8	79.8
Mar 14	Utah StateAdjEM #23	N	L 62–73	+2.5	L−8.5	146.0	U135	95.0	111.8	65.3
Mar 13	New MexicoAdjEM #32	N	W 64–62	−2.5	L−0.5	150.5	U126	96.8	93.7	66.1
Mar 12	Colorado StAdjEM #102	N	W 71–62	−6.5	W+2.5	142.0	U133	102.1	89.1	69.6
Mar 6	UNLVAdjEM #129	H	W 89–86	−9.0	L−6.0	153.5	O175	120.7	116.6	73.7
Mar 3	Boise StAdjEM #63	A	L 77–86	+1.0	L−8.0	145.0	O163	113.1	126.3	68.1
Feb 28	New MexicoAdjEM #32	A	L 76–81	+1.5	L−3.5	149.0	O157	108.1	115.3	70.3
Feb 25	Utah StateAdjEM #23	H	W 89–72	+1.0	W+18.0	147.0	O161	128.0	103.5	69.5
Feb 21	Colorado StAdjEM #102	A	L 74–83	−2.5	L−11.5	140.0	O157	109.5	122.8	67.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

New Mexico StSan Diego St

Efficiency

106.9

109.3

111.2

97.0

69.7

72.6

23.9

2.4

Shooting

47.9%

55.7%

50.0%

51.9%

28.6%

42.1%

91.7%

78.5%

50.0%

56.5%

Ball control & glass

27.1%

22.7%

8.6%

14.3%

32.1%

41.0%

39.3%

23.2%

14.3%

11.7%

8.8%

6.5%

Style

29.2%

33.0%

50.0%

34.6%

5.9%

8.4%

28.6%

55.4%

37.3%

32.3%

Roster

2.82

2.38

6'4.9"

6'6"

21.5%

14.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

New Mexico St

Returning minutes: 21.5%Returning production: 16.7%

Lost

Jemel Jones 28.4 mpg, 17.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Julius Mims 26.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Anthony Wrzeszcz 24.6 mpg, 7.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jayland Randall 19.9 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Elijah Elliott 18.1 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Chris Terrell 12.4 mpg, 4.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Gabe Warren from Holy Cross · 31.6 mpg, 12.5 ppg last season
DJ Dudley from Louisiana Tech · 30.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg last season
Jermaine Washington from San José St · 26.3 mpg, 8.7 ppg last season
Mark Lavrenov from Sacramento St · 26.0 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
Stephon Payne from Seton Hall · 20.2 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
Leopold Levillain from Long Beach St · 18.1 mpg, 4.5 ppg last season

Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

San Diego St

Returning minutes: 14.6%Returning production: 14.0%

Lost

Reese Dixon-Waters 29.2 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Miles Byrd 28.1 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to Providence
BJ Davis 22.3 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Creighton
Taj DeGourville 19.4 mpg, 5.5 ppg · transferred to Nebraska
Miles Heide 18.5 mpg, 5.4 ppg · transferred to Virginia Tech
Sean Newman Jr. 15.5 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Chance Gladden from Boston U · 32.4 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
Nick Anderson from Rice · 29.2 mpg, 15.5 ppg last season
Isaiah Sy from Oregon St · 28.0 mpg, 10.0 ppg last season
Bear Cherry from Sacramento St · 6.0 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
Jel Malek no D1 minutes last season
Zach White no D1 minutes last season

Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Sun, Nov 15

Niagara at Iowa State · 1:00 PM ET
Harvard at American · 1:00 PM ET
Louisville at Memphis · 1:00 PM ET
Dartmouth at Boston U · 1:00 PM ET
Colgate at Delaware · 1:00 PM ET
Quinnipiac at C Connecticut · 1:00 PM ET
Norfolk St at Georgia St · 1:00 PM ET
Boise St vs Nebraska · 1:00 PM ET
New Hampshire at Boston College · 1:30 PM ET
William & Mary at Michigan · 2:00 PM ET
Princeton at Rhode Island · 2:00 PM ET
Bakersfield at N Dakota St · 2:00 PM ET
UAlbany at Holy Cross · 2:00 PM ET
Temple at La Salle · 2:00 PM ET
SC State at Charleston · 2:00 PM ET
Missouri vs Marquette · 2:30 PM ET
Baylor vs Texas · 3:00 PM ET
Creighton vs Iowa · 3:00 PM ET
High Point at Saint Louis · 3:00 PM ET
Cleveland St at Alabama A&M · 3:00 PM ET
Purdue FW at E Illinois · 3:00 PM ET
Chicago St at LMU · 4:00 PM ET
Mercyhurst at James Madison · 4:00 PM ET
New Haven at Penn State · 4:30 PM ET
W Michigan at S Indiana · 4:30 PM ET
Pepperdine at Oregon · 5:00 PM ET
Canisius at Buffalo · 5:30 PM ET
Cal Poly at Montana St · 6:00 PM ET
Syracuse at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
AR-Pine Bluff at USC · 7:00 PM ET
Coastal at Wisconsin · 8:00 PM ET
Texas St at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
Florida A&M at UTEP · 8:00 PM ET
Alabama St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET

← Sat, Nov 14 · Mon, Nov 16 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.