CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceScheels Center, Fargo, ND
Bakersfield
Efficiency #339
2025-26: 8-24 · 2-18 conf
@
N Dakota St
Efficiency #90
2025-26: 27-8 · 17-2 conf
Sun, Nov 15 · 2:00 PM ET
67.9
win 10%
Projected
83.0
win 90%
No line posted yet.
Model: NDSU −15.1 · total 150.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: N Dakota St 67.8, Bakersfield 70.2 → 69.6 possessions
+2.9
N Dakota St offense vs Bakersfield defense
+5.4
Bakersfield offense vs N Dakota St defense
−5.6
Projected total
150.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
N Dakota St offense vs Bakersfield defense
+5.4
Bakersfield offense vs N Dakota St defense
+5.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
N Dakota St by 15.1
15.1
Bakersfield side ◂▸ N Dakota St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +15.0 against +15.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help N Dakota St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bakersfield is the faster team (72.6, #14 of 365) and N Dakota St the slower (68.1, #196). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.9
model
Projected team totals
67.9 / 83.0
Bakersfield / N Dakota St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.2#39
Bakersfield
67.8#225
N Dakota St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageBakersfield
Where Bakersfield struggles: shooting
Bakersfield shoots an effective 45.7% (#355); N Dakota St allows 52.0% (#215). Expect about 48.4%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageN Dakota St
Where N Dakota St scores: shooting
N Dakota St shoots an effective 53.2% (#92); Bakersfield allows 54.0% (#301). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversBakersfield
Bakersfield turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.2% is worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions against Bakersfield's offense.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
N Dakota St averages 68.1 possessions per 40, Bakersfield 72.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseBakersfield
Bakersfield's shot-blocking
Bakersfield ranks #18 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of N Dakota St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
GlassN Dakota St
N Dakota St owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for N Dakota St's offense.
Bakersfield has the ball
OffenseN Dakota St allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #355
52.0% #215
-4.1 pt/100
18.9% #316
18.7% #65
-2.9 pt/100
30.4% #181
25.5% #15
-1.4 pt/100
42.2% #27
29.2% #46
+0.0 pt/100
73.8% #142
—
+0.1 pt/100
Bakersfield net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.3 pts/100
N Dakota St has the ball
OffenseBakersfield allowsvs D1 avg
53.2% #92
54.0% #301
+3.6 pt/100
15.6% #112
17.9% #100
-0.1 pt/100
32.9% #89
35.6% #349
+2.6 pt/100
30.6% #289
42.6% #334
+0.3 pt/100
71.4% #227
—
-0.1 pt/100
N Dakota St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersBakersfieldoffense vsN Dakota Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Bakersfield shoots
38.4
7.3
25.7
28.6
N Dakota St allows
35.5
6.0
15.5
43.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.4%#289 | 60.0%#225 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 31.3%#339 | 42.7%#241 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.0%#222 | 38.2%#166 | 38.0% |
| Three | 29.0%#353 | 33.9%#173 | 33.7% |
N Dakota Stoffense vsBakersfielddefense
Share of shots by zone
N Dakota St shoots
36.1
8.0
13.0
43.0
Bakersfield allows
39.9
6.4
14.1
39.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.2%#115 | 60.1%#228 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.9%#105 | 42.6%#240 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.5%#134 | 40.7%#269 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.4%#93 | 36.0%#305 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBakersfield
−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#277 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#181
Def reb %
64.4%
#349
Turnover %
18.9%
#316
Forced TO %
17.9%
#100
FT rate
42.2%
#27
FT allowed
42.6%
#334
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding−1.6
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed−1.9
N Dakota St
+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#24 of 365
Off reb %
32.9%
#89
Def reb %
74.5%
#15
Turnover %
15.6%
#112
Forced TO %
18.7%
#65
FT rate
30.6%
#289
FT allowed
29.2%
#46
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+1.6
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.5
N Dakota St has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.0 (#24 of 365) to Bakersfield’s −2.3 (#277).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Bakersfield2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Dailin Smith | G | Sr | 6'6" | 30-27 | 29.3 | 16.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 41.2% | 28.0% | 5.4 | 80.6% | 32.8% | |
| 10 | AJ George | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-29 | 28.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 41.3% | 20.8% | 1.6 | 65.0% | 21.7% | |
| 21 | Ronald Jessamy | F | Jr | 6'8" | 31-23 | 26.0 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 52.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 67.6% | 31.0% | |
| 1 | Tom Mark | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-19 | 25.0 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 51.7% | 32.7% | 2.0 | 68.1% | 15.4% | |
| 12 | Kadar Waller | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-6 | 20.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 38.5% | 29.6% | 0.8 | 73.8% | 13.0% | |
| 0 | CJ Hardy | G | Sr | 6'3" | 22-21 | 28.1 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 50.0% | 31.3% | 3.0 | 83.2% | 25.7% | |
| 2 | Mike Price | G | Fr | 6'3" | 31-5 | 18.2 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 43.9% | 32.3% | 3.1 | 70.4% | 24.8% | |
| 7 | Pierre Geneste Jr. | C | Sr | 6'11" | 26-19 | 18.9 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 61.1% | — | 0.0 | 36.7% | 10.3% | |
| 25 | Jaden Alexander | G | Jr | 6'4" | 20-10 | 19.6 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 47.0% | 35.3% | 1.7 | 82.9% | 27.6% | |
| 5 | Bentley Waller | G | Fr | 6'4" | 22-1 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 49.3% | 36.8% | 0.9 | 87.5% | 22.5% | |
| 3 | Dylan Purnell | G | So | 6'5" | 16-0 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 39.3% | 10.0% | 0.6 | 42.9% | 23.4% | |
| 4 | Caleb McCarty | F | Sr | 6'8" | 6-0 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 16.6% | |
| 40 | TJ James Jr. | G | Fr | 6'1" | 10-0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 31.3% | 15.4% | 1.3 | 0.0% | 21.2% | |
| 11 | Colin Darby | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
N Dakota St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Andy Stefonowicz | G | So | 6'2" | 35-33 | 32.5 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 52.6% | 37.7% | 4.2 | 90.3% | 18.0% | |
| 0 | Trevian Carson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 35-34 | 31.6 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 54.9% | 37.5% | 3.4 | 80.3% | 22.1% | |
| 1 | Damari Wheeler-Thomas | G | Jr | 6'0" | 32-32 | 30.5 | 14.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 50.7% | 38.3% | 5.9 | 76.9% | 27.7% | |
| 30 | Markhi Strickland | G | Sr | 6'6" | 35-33 | 24.3 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 59.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 48.4% | 27.0% | |
| 34 | Noah Feddersen | F | Jr | 6'10" | 35-16 | 21.1 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 55.6% | 29.3% | 1.7 | 80.0% | 24.1% | |
| 3 | Tay Smith | G | Sr | 6'2" | 35-5 | 19.8 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 56.7% | 39.1% | 5.5 | 76.5% | 21.2% | |
| 44 | Treyson Anderson | F | So | 6'9" | 35-19 | 18.3 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 57.5% | 35.8% | 3.0 | 65.8% | 32.6% | |
| 8 | Emil Skytta | G | Jr | 6'5" | 26-0 | 12.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 58.6% | 37.5% | 0.3 | 40.0% | 17.6% | |
| 2 | Riley Massey | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-1 | 8.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 37.0% | 22.9% | 1.1 | 71.4% | 12.7% | |
| 7 | Carson Smith | G | Fr | 6'6" | 24-2 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.4% | 22.6% | 1.3 | 91.7% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Max Majerle | G | Jr | 6'4" | 18-0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 29.5% | 12.5% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 18.4% | |
| 22 | Caleb Schoenrock | F | Fr | 6'7" | 8-0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 12.1% | |
| 13 | Riley Saunders | G | Fr | 5'11" | 9-0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 93.8% | 62.5% | 0.9 | — | 27.0% | |
| 14 | Dom Clay | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Bakersfield2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Dailin Smith | G | Sr | 6'6" | 30-27 | 29.3 | 16.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 41.2% | 28.0% | 5.4 | 80.6% | 32.8% | |
| 10 | AJ George | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-29 | 28.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 41.3% | 20.8% | 1.6 | 65.0% | 21.7% | |
| 21 | Ronald Jessamy | F | Jr | 6'8" | 31-23 | 26.0 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 52.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 67.6% | 31.0% | |
| 1 | Tom Mark | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-19 | 25.0 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 51.7% | 32.7% | 2.0 | 68.1% | 15.4% | |
| 12 | Kadar Waller | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-6 | 20.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 38.5% | 29.6% | 0.8 | 73.8% | 13.0% | |
| 0 | CJ Hardy | G | Sr | 6'3" | 22-21 | 28.1 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 50.0% | 31.3% | 3.0 | 83.2% | 25.7% | |
| 2 | Mike Price | G | Fr | 6'3" | 31-5 | 18.2 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 43.9% | 32.3% | 3.1 | 70.4% | 24.8% | |
| 7 | Pierre Geneste Jr. | C | Sr | 6'11" | 26-19 | 18.9 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 61.1% | — | 0.0 | 36.7% | 10.3% | |
| 25 | Jaden Alexander | G | Jr | 6'4" | 20-10 | 19.6 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 47.0% | 35.3% | 1.7 | 82.9% | 27.6% | |
| 5 | Bentley Waller | G | Fr | 6'4" | 22-1 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 49.3% | 36.8% | 0.9 | 87.5% | 22.5% | |
| 3 | Dylan Purnell | G | So | 6'5" | 16-0 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 39.3% | 10.0% | 0.6 | 42.9% | 23.4% | |
| 4 | Caleb McCarty | F | Sr | 6'8" | 6-0 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 16.6% | |
| 40 | TJ James Jr. | G | Fr | 6'1" | 10-0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 31.3% | 15.4% | 1.3 | 0.0% | 21.2% | |
| 11 | Colin Darby | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Bakersfield
Against the spread
Season
12-18
Home
6-9
Road
5-9
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −4.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 10 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
16-13-1
Home
7-8
Road
9-4-1
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +5.5
Over 7 straightOver in 7 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Cal Poly | A | L 76–108 | +9.0 | L−23.0 | 173.0 | O184 | 92.2 | 131.0 | 82.5 |
| Mar 5 | CSU Northridge | H | L 84–86 | +8.0 | W+6.0 | 165.0 | O170 | 105.7 | 108.2 | 79.5 |
| Feb 28 | Long Beach St | H | L 87–88 | +3.0 | W+2.0 | 153.5 | O175 | 117.3 | 118.6 | 74.2 |
| Feb 26 | UC San Diego | A | L 72–84 | +14.5 | W+2.5 | 149.0 | O156 | 100.8 | 117.6 | 71.4 |
| Feb 21 | Fullerton | H | L 80–88 | +6.0 | L−2.0 | 161.0 | O168 | 108.9 | 119.8 | 73.4 |
| Feb 19 | UC Riverside | A | L 65–93 | +7.0 | L−21.0 | 151.5 | O158 | 84.3 | 120.6 | 77.1 |
| Feb 12 | Hawai'i | H | L 74–89 | +13.5 | L−1.5 | 151.5 | O163 | 102.3 | 123.0 | 72.3 |
| Feb 7 | Fullerton | A | L 66–82 | +10.0 | L−6.0 | 158.0 | U148 | 89.0 | 110.6 | 74.2 |
| Feb 5 | UC Irvine | A | L 62–78 | +17.0 | W+1.0 | 144.5 | U140 | 84.7 | 106.6 | 73.2 |
| Jan 31 | UC Davis | H | L 72–80 | +5.5 | L−2.5 | 152.5 | U152 | 103.4 | 114.9 | 69.6 |
N Dakota St
Against the spread
Season
17-13-2
Home
7-4
Road
8-6-1
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +3.9
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
14-16-2
Home
6-5
Road
7-7-1
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −0.5
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #3Michigan St | N | L 67–92 | +16.0 | L−9.0 | 144.5 | O159 | 92.0 | 126.4 | 72.8 |
| Mar 8 | North Dakota | N | W 70–62 | −11.0 | L−3.0 | 148.0 | U132 | 108.4 | 96.0 | 64.6 |
| Mar 7 | Omaha | N | W 74–50 | −8.0 | W+16.0 | 147.0 | U124 | 109.2 | 73.8 | 67.8 |
| Mar 5 | Oral Roberts | N | W 76–65 | −12.0 | L−1.0 | 147.5 | U141 | 113.3 | 96.9 | 67.1 |
| Feb 28 | North Dakota | H | W 96–63 | −12.0 | W+21.0 | 152.5 | O159 | 131.1 | 86.1 | 73.2 |
| Feb 26 | St Thomas | A | L 62–84 | +3.0 | L−19.0 | 155.5 | U146 | 95.1 | 128.8 | 65.2 |
| Feb 21 | Kansas City | H | W 95–59 | −19.5 | W+16.5 | 147.5 | O154 | 123.0 | 76.4 | 77.2 |
| Feb 18 | S Dakota St | A | W 74–66 | −1.0 | W+7.0 | 147.0 | U140 | 113.0 | 100.8 | 65.5 |
| Feb 14 | North Dakota | A | W 83–66 | −5.5 | W+11.5 | 150.5 | U149 | 128.1 | 101.9 | 64.8 |
| Feb 7 | Omaha | H | W 92–84 | −9.5 | L−1.5 | 144.5 | O176 | 137.2 | 125.2 | 67.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBakersfieldN Dakota St
Efficiency
102.7
110.7
114.0
106.2
70.2
67.8
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
53.2%
46.6%
53.3%
29.0%
35.4%
73.8%
71.4%
42.2%
30.6%
Ball control & glass
18.9%
15.6%
17.9%
18.7%
30.4%
32.9%
35.6%
25.5%
10.4%
9.2%
9.1%
9.3%
Style
28.9%
42.8%
41.8%
43.2%
16.0%
11.9%
44.6%
53.0%
32.3%
31.2%
Roster
3.37
2.81
6'5.1"
6'4.2"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBakersfield
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
N Dakota St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Nov 8 | 2026-27 | N Dakota St 0 – 0 Bakersfield |
| Thu, Dec 11 | 2025-26 | N Dakota St 80 – 69 Bakersfield |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.