CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBryce Jordan Center, University Park, PA
New Haven
Efficiency #326
2025-26: 14-17 · 9-9 conf
@
Penn State
Efficiency #194
2025-26: 12-20 · 3-18 conf
Sun, Nov 15 · TBD
66.2
win 21%
Projected
75.5
win 79%
No line posted yet.
Model: PSU −9.4 · total 141.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Penn State 68.4, New Haven 65.7 → 65.8 possessions
−5.4
Penn State offense vs New Haven defense
+2.2
New Haven offense vs Penn State defense
−3.3
Projected total
141.7
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Penn State offense vs New Haven defense
+2.2
New Haven offense vs Penn State defense
+3.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Penn State by 9.4
9.4
New Haven side ◂▸ Penn State side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +9.3 against +9.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Penn State.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Penn State is the faster team (67.5, #224 of 365) and New Haven the slower (63.5, #360). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.7
model
Projected team totals
66.2 / 75.5
New Haven / Penn State
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.7#349
New Haven
68.4#175
Penn State
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Penn State averages 67.5 possessions per 40, New Haven 63.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageNew Haven
Where New Haven struggles: the offensive glass
New Haven rebounds 21.5% of its own misses (#359); Penn State lets opponents grab 31.1% of their own misses (#210). Expect about 24.5%, 5.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantagePenn State
Where Penn State struggles: the offensive glass
Penn State rebounds 25.9% of its own misses (#325); New Haven lets opponents grab 26.8% of their own misses (#30). Expect about 25.5%, 4.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (New Haven, Penn State's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect New Haven at about 42.3% of its shots from three, Penn State about 37.6%.
New Haven has the ball
OffensePenn State allowsvs D1 avg
48.7% #296
58.4% #363
+3.1 pt/100
17.8% #257
17.7% #113
-1.4 pt/100
21.5% #359
31.1% #210
-3.6 pt/100
31.7% #261
27.5% #28
-0.8 pt/100
70.2% #266
—
-0.2 pt/100
New Haven net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.9 pts/100
Penn State has the ball
OffenseNew Haven allowsvs D1 avg
53.0% #102
51.8% #203
+1.8 pt/100
15.6% #108
17.1% #142
+0.6 pt/100
25.9% #325
26.8% #30
-3.0 pt/100
33.8% #219
27.7% #31
-0.6 pt/100
75.0% #83
—
+0.2 pt/100
Penn State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNew Havenoffense vsPenn Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
New Haven shoots
37.9
4.4
17.0
40.6
Penn State allows
39.1
5.8
12.5
42.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.1%#92 | 67.3%#362 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.2%#264 | 35.2%#63 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.2%#327 | 43.7%#338 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.2%#340 | 38.8%#363 | 33.7% |
Penn Stateoffense vsNew Havendefense
Share of shots by zone
Penn State shoots
38.7
5.6
17.9
37.7
New Haven allows
39.2
6.2
16.7
38.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.1%#69 | 57.9%#146 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.5%#111 | 45.2%#305 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.8%#42 | 38.5%#179 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.4%#263 | 34.3%#198 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNew Haven
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#230 of 365
Off reb %
21.5%
#359
Def reb %
73.2%
#30
Turnover %
17.8%
#257
Forced TO %
17.1%
#142
FT rate
31.7%
#261
FT allowed
27.7%
#31
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.9
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn−0.8
Foul shots allowed+1.9
Penn State
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#118 of 365
Off reb %
25.9%
#325
Def reb %
68.9%
#210
Turnover %
15.6%
#108
Forced TO %
17.7%
#113
FT rate
33.8%
#219
FT allowed
27.5%
#28
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.7
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+2.0
Penn State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#118 of 365) to New Haven’s −1.0 (#230).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
New Haven2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Najimi George | G | So | 6'4" | 30-29 | 33.7 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 46.0% | 27.8% | 3.6 | 64.0% | 24.2% | |
| 15 | Andre Pasha | F | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 31.7 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 51.5% | 35.1% | 3.7 | 82.9% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Stefano Faloppa | F | Jr | 6'9" | 31-31 | 26.1 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 58.0% | 35.6% | 1.9 | 70.3% | 15.1% | |
| 3 | Kheni Briggs | G | Sr | 6'3" | 28-18 | 18.3 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 55.4% | 34.7% | 2.6 | 72.5% | 24.6% | |
| 22 | Maison Adeleye | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-12 | 15.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 47.9% | 26.4% | 1.7 | 68.4% | 20.9% | |
| 14 | Teshaun Steele | G | Fr | 6'7" | 31-0 | 15.2 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 47.3% | 17.1% | 1.1 | 71.7% | 17.1% | |
| 10 | Vere Anthony | G | Fr | 6'0" | 14-0 | 13.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 33.8% | 7.1% | 1.0 | 57.9% | 18.5% | |
| 21 | Zoumana Traore | G | Fr | 6'8" | 21-1 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 45.8% | 33.3% | 1.1 | 80.0% | 20.6% | |
| 2 | Aidan Losiewicz | G | Fr | 6'3" | 23-1 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 63.5% | 43.9% | 1.8 | 25.0% | 25.4% | |
| 20 | Tristan Burth | F | Fr | 6'8" | 19-0 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 48.0% | — | 0.0 | 37.5% | 16.0% | |
| 25 | Kyle Kearson | G | Sr | 6'4" | 19-2 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 44.2% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 14.5% | |
| 7 | Dior Kennedy | G | Fr | 6'2" | 6-0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 35.9% | |
| 8 | Jagger Bascombe | G | So | 6'4" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 18.3% | |
| 12 | Timothy Coleman | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.7 | — | 18.3% | |
| 4 | Dominick LaDuca | G | Fr | 5'7" | 3-0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 133.3% | 100.0% | 0.7 | — | 20.6% | |
| 11 | Nathan Narcisse | G | So | 6'4" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 17.3% | |
| 13 | John Oladipo | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Justice Hanna | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Matiss Ogle | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Owen Hotaling | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Penn State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Josh Reed | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 28.2 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 55.3% | 36.8% | 2.7 | 87.2% | 22.0% | |
| 4 | Kayden Mingo | G | Fr | 6'3" | 28-28 | 32.1 | 13.7 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 51.2% | 24.4% | 3.1 | 70.5% | 26.9% | |
| 3 | Ivan Juric | F | Fr | 7'0" | 30-26 | 26.4 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 61.6% | 28.3% | 1.8 | 66.1% | 22.5% | |
| 7 | Dominick Stewart | G | So | 6'5" | 32-24 | 22.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 51.5% | 34.8% | 3.5 | 79.1% | 18.1% | |
| 9 | Melih Tunca | G | Fr | 6'5" | 31-12 | 22.8 | 7.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 50.3% | 31.3% | 2.1 | 77.0% | 22.1% | |
| 11 | Eli Rice | G | So | 6'8" | 29-18 | 19.8 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 51.6% | 39.0% | 3.6 | 77.3% | 20.3% | |
| 1 | Mason Blackwood | F | Fr | 6'7" | 26-1 | 12.3 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 54.5% | 22.2% | 1.0 | 77.8% | 12.5% | |
| 22 | Sasa Ciani | F | Jr | 6'10" | 28-4 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 39.8% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 68.2% | 16.0% | |
| 16 | Tibor Mirtic | F | Fr | 6'9" | 15-1 | 14.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 54.3% | 33.3% | 0.2 | 30.8% | 17.6% | |
| 21 | Justin Houser | F | Fr | 7'0" | 18-0 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.5 | 62.5% | 16.2% | |
| 30 | Chris Lotito | F | Fr | 6'7" | 4-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 9.7% | |
| 12 | Reggie Grodin | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
New Haven2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Najimi George | G | So | 6'4" | 30-29 | 33.7 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 46.0% | 27.8% | 3.6 | 64.0% | 24.2% | |
| 15 | Andre Pasha | F | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 31.7 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 51.5% | 35.1% | 3.7 | 82.9% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Stefano Faloppa | F | Jr | 6'9" | 31-31 | 26.1 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 58.0% | 35.6% | 1.9 | 70.3% | 15.1% | |
| 3 | Kheni Briggs | G | Sr | 6'3" | 28-18 | 18.3 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 55.4% | 34.7% | 2.6 | 72.5% | 24.6% | |
| 22 | Maison Adeleye | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-12 | 15.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 47.9% | 26.4% | 1.7 | 68.4% | 20.9% | |
| 14 | Teshaun Steele | G | Fr | 6'7" | 31-0 | 15.2 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 47.3% | 17.1% | 1.1 | 71.7% | 17.1% | |
| 10 | Vere Anthony | G | Fr | 6'0" | 14-0 | 13.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 33.8% | 7.1% | 1.0 | 57.9% | 18.5% | |
| 21 | Zoumana Traore | G | Fr | 6'8" | 21-1 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 45.8% | 33.3% | 1.1 | 80.0% | 20.6% | |
| 2 | Aidan Losiewicz | G | Fr | 6'3" | 23-1 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 63.5% | 43.9% | 1.8 | 25.0% | 25.4% | |
| 20 | Tristan Burth | F | Fr | 6'8" | 19-0 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 48.0% | — | 0.0 | 37.5% | 16.0% | |
| 25 | Kyle Kearson | G | Sr | 6'4" | 19-2 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 44.2% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 14.5% | |
| 7 | Dior Kennedy | G | Fr | 6'2" | 6-0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 35.9% | |
| 8 | Jagger Bascombe | G | So | 6'4" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 18.3% | |
| 12 | Timothy Coleman | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.7 | — | 18.3% | |
| 4 | Dominick LaDuca | G | Fr | 5'7" | 3-0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 133.3% | 100.0% | 0.7 | — | 20.6% | |
| 11 | Nathan Narcisse | G | So | 6'4" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 17.3% | |
| 13 | John Oladipo | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Justice Hanna | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Matiss Ogle | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Owen Hotaling | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26New Haven
Against the spread
Season
15-13
Home
6-6
Road
9-7
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.9
Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
8-20
Home
2-10
Road
6-10
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total +0.9
Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28 | Le Moyne | H | W 66–59 | +2.0 | W+9.0 | 136.0 | U125 | 96.8 | 86.5 | 68.2 |
| Feb 26 | Wagner | A | L 62–65 | +2.0 | L−1.0 | 131.5 | U127 | 99.5 | 104.3 | 62.3 |
| Feb 24 | Saint Francis Red Wolves | H | L 67–73 | −7.0 | L−13.0 | 141.0 | U140 | 106.6 | 116.2 | 62.8 |
| Feb 21 | FDU | A | W 84–77 | +2.5 | W+9.5 | 124.5 | O161 | 133.7 | 122.6 | 62.8 |
| Feb 19 | Stonehill | H | W 64–51 | −3.0 | W+10.0 | 121.0 | U115 | 97.8 | 77.9 | 65.5 |
| Feb 14 | Long Island | H | W 55–52 | +7.0 | W+10.0 | 129.5 | U107 | 88.9 | 84.1 | 61.8 |
| Feb 12 | C Connecticut | H | L 76–81 | +3.0 | L−2.0 | 129.0 | O157 | 110.2 | 117.5 | 69.0 |
| Feb 7 | Chicago St | H | L 57–63 | −5.5 | L−11.5 | 127.5 | U120 | 96.8 | 106.9 | 58.9 |
| Feb 5 | Long Island | A | L 55–60 | +9.5 | W+4.5 | 136.0 | U115 | 87.1 | 95.0 | 63.1 |
| Jan 31 | Saint Francis Red Wolves | A | W 81–69 | +1.0 | W+13.0 | 131.5 | O150 | 122.4 | 104.2 | 66.2 |
Penn State
Against the spread
Season
12-20
Home
7-10
Road
4-7
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −5.2
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
18-14
Home
9-8
Road
8-3
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −1.6
Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Northwestern | N | L 66–76 | +5.0 | L−5.0 | 144.5 | U142 | 103.9 | 119.6 | 63.6 |
| Mar 8 | Rutgers | A | L 62–74 | +5.0 | L−7.0 | 150.5 | U136 | 89.5 | 106.8 | 69.3 |
| Mar 4 | Ohio State | H | L 62–94 | +7.0 | L−25.0 | 152.0 | O156 | 95.7 | 145.1 | 64.8 |
| Feb 28 | Iowa | H | W 71–69 | +9.0 | W+11.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 119.5 | 116.1 | 59.4 |
| Feb 21 | #9Nebraska | A | L 64–87 | +17.5 | L−5.5 | 147.5 | O151 | 92.2 | 125.4 | 69.4 |
| Feb 18 | Rutgers | H | L 72–85 | −4.5 | L−17.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 105.6 | 124.7 | 68.2 |
| Feb 14 | Oregon | A | L 72–83 | +6.5 | L−4.5 | 147.0 | O155 | 109.7 | 126.5 | 65.6 |
| Feb 11 | Washington | A | W 63–60 | +12.5 | W+15.5 | 153.0 | U123 | 96.3 | 91.7 | 65.4 |
| Feb 8 | USC | H | L 75–77 | +3.0 | W+1.0 | 157.0 | U152 | 103.7 | 106.4 | 72.3 |
| Feb 5 | #2Michigan | A | L 69–110 | +26.5 | L−14.5 | 162.0 | O179 | 96.9 | 154.5 | 71.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNew HavenPenn State
Efficiency
100.1
110.8
109.6
111.8
65.7
68.4
—
—
Shooting
48.7%
53.0%
51.0%
55.8%
30.2%
32.4%
70.2%
75.0%
31.7%
33.8%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
15.6%
17.1%
17.7%
21.5%
25.9%
26.8%
31.1%
9.3%
8.6%
7.7%
9.8%
Style
39.8%
38.1%
45.0%
46.1%
9.8%
14.8%
49.7%
48.3%
27.6%
33.2%
Roster
2.38
1.82
6'5.9"
6'7.1"
82.7%
86.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNew Haven
Returning minutes: 82.7%Returning production: 78.3%
Lost
- Jabri Fitzpatrick 34.5 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
Added
- Justice Hanna no D1 minutes last season
- Matiss Ogle no D1 minutes last season
- John Oladipo no D1 minutes last season
- Owen Hotaling no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Penn State
Returning minutes: 86.3%Returning production: 82.2%
Lost
- Freddie Dilione V 27.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg · transferred to Georgia
Added
- Reggie Grodin no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 8 | 2025-26 | Penn State 87 – 43 New Haven |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.