CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLiberty Arena (IN), Evansville, IN

W Michigan

Efficiency #276

2025-26: 10-21 · 4-14 conf

S Indiana

Efficiency #333

2025-26: 7-23 · 4-16 conf

Sun, Nov 15 · TBD

73.4

win 47%

Projected

74.3

win 53%

No line posted yet.

Model: USI −0.9 · total 147.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: S Indiana 68.6, W Michigan 68.6 → 68.9 possessions

+1.2

S Indiana offense vs W Michigan defense

−2.4

W Michigan offense vs S Indiana defense

+0.7

Projected total

147.7

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

S Indiana offense vs W Michigan defense

−2.4

W Michigan offense vs S Indiana defense

−0.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

S Indiana by 0.9

0.9

W Michigan side ◂▸ S Indiana side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help S Indiana.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, W Michigan is the faster team (69.0, #148 of 365) and S Indiana the slower (68.4, #175). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.7

model

Projected team totals

73.4 / 74.3

W Michigan / S Indiana

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#153

W Michigan

68.6#162

S Indiana

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageS Indiana

Where S Indiana struggles: shooting

S Indiana shoots an effective 43.7% (#363); W Michigan allows 54.4% (#310). Expect about 48.5%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashW Michigan

Style match: 3-point volume

W Michigan rarely shoots threes (36.1% of its shots); S Indiana runs teams off the line (27.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 28.8% — both habits push the same way.

ClashW Michigan

Style match: ball movement

W Michigan creates off the dribble (assists on 48.1% of its baskets); S Indiana breaks up passing offenses (assists on 40.3% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 41.8% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageW Michigan

Where W Michigan struggles: shooting

W Michigan shoots an effective 49.9% (#241); S Indiana allows 49.4% (#80). Expect about 49.5%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversS Indiana

S Indiana protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for S Indiana's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (S Indiana) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect W Michigan at about 28.8% of its shots from three, S Indiana about 42.4%.

W Michigan has the ball

OffenseS Indiana allowsvs D1 avg

49.9% #241

49.4% #80

-2.5 pt/100

16.9% #198

16.4% #190

+0.2 pt/100

30.5% #177

33.8% #315

+1.1 pt/100

32.8% #241

36.2% #212

-0.1 pt/100

74.4% #104

—

+0.2 pt/100

W Michigan net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.2 pts/100

S Indiana has the ball

OffenseW Michigan allowsvs D1 avg

43.7% #363

54.4% #310

-4.0 pt/100

17.2% #216

13.4% #346

+2.4 pt/100

31.4% #145

29.1% #110

+0.0 pt/100

37.2% #123

37.5% #251

+0.3 pt/100

66.6% #347

—

-0.5 pt/100

S Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

W Michiganoffense vsS Indianadefense

Share of shots by zone

W Michigan shoots

39.5

5.4

19.6

35.5

S Indiana allows

47.4

8.0

17.9

26.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.2%#338	56.3%#92	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	33.3%#31	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.2%#180	35.6%#94	38.0%
Three	35.3%#95	34.1%#193	33.7%

S Indianaoffense vsW Michigandefense

Share of shots by zone

S Indiana shoots

39.7

2.9

18.3

39.2

W Michigan allows

38.9

4.9

12.8

43.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	49.4%#363	60.5%#250	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.0%#342	48.1%#340	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.8%#355	37.0%#130	38.0%
Three	29.9%#345	36.1%#307	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

W Michigan

−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#302 of 365

Off reb %

30.5%

#177

Def reb %

70.9%

#110

Turnover %

16.9%

#198

Forced TO %

13.4%

#346

FT rate

32.8%

#241

FT allowed

37.5%

#251

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers−2.3

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.6

S Indiana

−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#217 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#145

Def reb %

66.2%

#315

Turnover %

17.2%

#216

Forced TO %

16.4%

#190

FT rate

37.2%

#123

FT allowed

36.2%

#212

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.2

S Indiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#217 of 365) to W Michigan’s −3.0 (#302).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

W Michigan2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	EJ Ryans	G	So	6'3"	31-31	27.3	7.5	1.7	1.9	1.2	46.8%	31.2%	3.0	89.1%	17.9%
12	Jayden Brewer	G	Sr	6'6"	31-28	25.4	13.3	7.0	1.1	1.8	47.5%	31.6%	1.2	70.8%	32.4%
2	Jalen Griffith	G	Jr	5'10"	27-17	22.9	11.9	1.5	3.4	1.7	55.3%	41.2%	4.2	81.5%	29.5%
11	Justice Williams	G	Sr	6'4"	18-14	30.1	15.1	3.6	1.9	1.6	50.2%	36.4%	4.9	85.1%	29.6%
4	Brady Swartz	G	Fr	6'7"	25-17	20.6	7.7	4.6	0.4	0.4	50.3%	34.1%	3.4	69.6%	21.2%
7	Carson Vis	G	Fr	6'3"	31-0	14.8	5.8	2.2	0.8	0.7	48.6%	30.6%	1.6	60.7%	24.6%
0	Sharod Barnes	G	Fr	6'2"	27-0	12.4	3.3	1.6	1.3	1.4	34.6%	11.1%	0.3	82.4%	22.1%
24	Michael Sulaka	F	So	6'9"	24-1	11.0	2.9	2.0	0.6	0.4	52.8%	33.3%	0.1	70.6%	15.4%
22	Declan Peterson	C	Sr	6'11"	27-0	9.1	2.1	2.2	0.5	0.9	60.5%	—	0.0	54.5%	16.8%
8	Hudson Ward	F	So	6'7"	13-6	18.6	4.5	3.4	0.8	0.4	54.6%	33.3%	2.1	0.0%	13.8%
52	Junior Sileu	F	Fr	6'10"	9-0	6.1	0.9	1.0	0.1	0.1	80.0%	—	0.0	—	6.3%
9	Nicholas Errica	G	Fr	6'3"	6-0	5.0	1.2	0.3	0.2	0.5	43.8%	16.7%	1.0	—	19.7%
23	Camden Thompson	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

S Indiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Ismail Habib	G	Sr	6'1"	27-23	32.4	14.7	3.6	2.8	2.4	47.2%	33.0%	6.9	68.8%	30.5%
3	Tolu Samuels	F	Jr	6'8"	29-26	29.5	7.1	8.6	1.3	1.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.4	51.2%	16.8%
5	Ola Ajiboye	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	25.0	6.6	5.1	0.8	0.8	49.3%	0.0%	0.0	65.2%	16.2%
8	Cardell Bailey	G	Sr	6'6"	29-7	24.6	12.6	5.0	0.7	1.4	46.1%	30.9%	5.7	71.4%	33.9%
11	Sheridan Sharp	G	Jr	6'3"	30-7	17.1	4.4	2.1	2.5	1.4	31.8%	25.0%	0.5	63.5%	23.6%
2	Steven Clay	G	Sr	6'4"	30-21	14.5	4.4	2.0	0.5	0.5	50.4%	31.0%	2.9	93.3%	18.4%
15	Amaree Brown	G	Jr	6'5"	16-12	26.4	13.8	2.8	1.2	1.9	41.2%	28.8%	3.7	78.5%	36.7%
22	Josiah Dunham	G	So	6'0"	20-10	20.9	4.8	1.9	0.7	0.7	47.3%	35.8%	3.4	80.0%	15.9%
0	Kaden Brown	G	Jr	6'1"	13-12	28.3	11.1	2.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	33.7%	6.6	67.4%	24.0%
13	Devin Curtis	F	Jr	6'11"	27-0	11.3	2.1	2.5	0.2	0.6	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	14.8%
6	Ben Ezeagu	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	8.5	2.1	1.3	0.0	0.7	45.0%	—	0.0	56.0%	18.5%
12	Alem Fejzic	G	So	6'3"	14-0	8.6	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.2	33.8%	21.2%	2.4	—	16.7%
1	Trey Thomas	G	Sr	6'2"	4-2	22.5	11.8	3.3	1.0	2.0	40.9%	18.8%	4.0	100.0%	37.8%
4	Braxton Jones	G	Sr	6'0"	4-0	10.5	2.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	19.2%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	20.0%
33	Cayden Gehlhausen	G	So	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.4	1.4	0.0	0.4	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

W Michigan2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	EJ Ryans	G	So	6'3"	31-31	27.3	7.5	1.7	1.9	1.2	46.8%	31.2%	3.0	89.1%	17.9%
12	Jayden Brewer	G	Sr	6'6"	31-28	25.4	13.3	7.0	1.1	1.8	47.5%	31.6%	1.2	70.8%	32.4%
2	Jalen Griffith	G	Jr	5'10"	27-17	22.9	11.9	1.5	3.4	1.7	55.3%	41.2%	4.2	81.5%	29.5%
11	Justice Williams	G	Sr	6'4"	18-14	30.1	15.1	3.6	1.9	1.6	50.2%	36.4%	4.9	85.1%	29.6%
4	Brady Swartz	G	Fr	6'7"	25-17	20.6	7.7	4.6	0.4	0.4	50.3%	34.1%	3.4	69.6%	21.2%
7	Carson Vis	G	Fr	6'3"	31-0	14.8	5.8	2.2	0.8	0.7	48.6%	30.6%	1.6	60.7%	24.6%
0	Sharod Barnes	G	Fr	6'2"	27-0	12.4	3.3	1.6	1.3	1.4	34.6%	11.1%	0.3	82.4%	22.1%
24	Michael Sulaka	F	So	6'9"	24-1	11.0	2.9	2.0	0.6	0.4	52.8%	33.3%	0.1	70.6%	15.4%
22	Declan Peterson	C	Sr	6'11"	27-0	9.1	2.1	2.2	0.5	0.9	60.5%	—	0.0	54.5%	16.8%
8	Hudson Ward	F	So	6'7"	13-6	18.6	4.5	3.4	0.8	0.4	54.6%	33.3%	2.1	0.0%	13.8%
52	Junior Sileu	F	Fr	6'10"	9-0	6.1	0.9	1.0	0.1	0.1	80.0%	—	0.0	—	6.3%
9	Nicholas Errica	G	Fr	6'3"	6-0	5.0	1.2	0.3	0.2	0.5	43.8%	16.7%	1.0	—	19.7%
23	Camden Thompson	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

W Michigan

Against the spread

Season

15-13-1

Home

8-5

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover +1.6

Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as an underdogCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

18-11

Home

7-6

Road

11-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +1.6

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 9 as an underdogOver in 4 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	Kent StateAdjEM #157	A	L 78–86	+13.5	W+5.5	157.5	O164	111.1	122.5	70.2
Mar 3	Ball StateAdjEM #295	H	L 71–74 OT	−2.0	L−5.0	138.5	O145	99.0	103.2	71.7
Feb 27	#21Miami OHAdjEM #66	H	L 67–69	+11.5	W+9.5	163.0	U136	98.3	101.2	68.2
Feb 24	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	A	W 88–79	+12.0	W+21.0	149.0	O167	120.6	108.3	73.0
Feb 21	C MichiganAdjEM #283	A	L 70–83	+3.5	L−9.5	151.5	O153	94.0	111.5	74.5
Feb 17	AkronAdjEM #48	H	L 73–90	+14.0	L−3.0	159.0	O163	107.5	132.6	67.9
Feb 14	E MichiganAdjEM #247	A	W 76–62	+6.5	W+20.5	144.0	U138	117.6	96.0	64.6
Feb 11	ToledoAdjEM #115	H	L 79–90	+6.5	L−4.5	154.5	O169	115.0	131.0	68.7
Feb 7	Texas StAdjEM #249	A	L 61–77	+6.5	L−9.5	146.5	U138	94.9	119.8	64.3
Feb 3	OhioAdjEM #233	A	L 71–91	+10.5	L−9.5	156.0	O162	102.7	131.6	69.2

S Indiana

Against the spread

Season

12-15-1

Home

2-8-1

Road

8-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −4.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-17

Home

3-8

Road

6-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.7

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Feb 28	Little RockAdjEM #300	A	L 70–89	+6.0	L−13.0	139.5	O159	104.5	132.8	67.0
Feb 24	Morehead StAdjEM #266	A	L 63–64	+7.5	W+6.5	142.5	U127	104.0	105.7	60.5
Feb 21	E IllinoisAdjEM #317	A	W 70–68	+4.5	W+6.5	136.0	O138	106.9	103.9	65.5
Feb 19	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	A	W 77–70	−2.5	W+4.5	140.0	O147	116.7	106.1	66.0
Feb 14	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	H	L 74–82	−1.0	L−9.0	139.5	O156	114.9	127.3	64.4
Feb 12	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	H	L 71–73	+6.0	W+4.0	148.5	U144	107.2	110.2	66.2
Feb 7	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	A	L 65–90	+11.0	L−14.0	140.5	O155	96.2	133.2	67.6
Feb 5	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	L 54–76	+11.5	L−10.5	132.0	U130	84.0	118.3	64.3
Jan 31	SIUEAdjEM #229	H	L 46–58	+2.0	L−10.0	130.5	U104	76.2	96.1	60.4
Jan 29	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	H	L 60–73	+5.0	L−8.0	151.0	U133	77.3	94.0	77.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

W MichiganS Indiana

Efficiency

107.3

100.1

113.3

110.6

68.6

—

Shooting

49.9%

43.7%

48.1%

43.0%

35.3%

29.9%

74.4%

66.6%

32.8%

37.2%

Ball control & glass

16.9%

17.2%

13.4%

16.4%

30.5%

31.4%

29.1%

33.8%

9.5%

11.9%

14.1%

Style

36.1%

39.7%

40.7%

38.0%

14.5%

14.7%

48.1%

43.0%

37.5%

35.3%

Roster

2.48

3.41

6'4.3"

6'4.7"

79.4%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

W Michigan

Returning minutes: 79.4%Returning production: 81.4%

Lost

Max Burton 23.8 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to Akron
Trey Lewis 17.6 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Ball State

Added

Camden Thompson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

S Indiana

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Dec 3	2025-26	S Indiana 74 – 88 W Michigan

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.