CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceHilton Coliseum, Ames, IA
Niagara
Efficiency #337
2025-26: 8-22 · 5-15 conf
@
Iowa State
Efficiency #7
2025-26: 29-8 · 14-7 conf
Sun, Nov 15 · TBD
57.6
win 2%
Projected
82.0
win 98%
No line posted yet.
Model: ISU −24.4 · total 139.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Iowa State 68.2, Niagara 65.0 → 64.9 possessions
−7.4
Iowa State offense vs Niagara defense
+9.7
Niagara offense vs Iowa State defense
−10.9
Projected total
139.6
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Iowa State offense vs Niagara defense
+9.7
Niagara offense vs Iowa State defense
+10.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Iowa State by 24.4
24.4
Niagara side ◂▸ Iowa State side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +24.3 against +24.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iowa State.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 64.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Iowa State is the faster team (68.5, #173 of 365) and Niagara the slower (63.1, #363). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
64.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.6
model
Projected team totals
57.6 / 82.0
Niagara / Iowa State
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.0#364
Niagara
68.2#188
Iowa State
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageNiagara
Where Niagara struggles: ball control
Niagara turns it over on 18.9% of possessions (#319); Iowa State forces turnovers on 22.6% of opponent possessions (#4). Expect about 21.7%, 4.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageIowa State
Where Iowa State scores: shooting
Iowa State shoots an effective 56.2% (#20); Niagara allows 52.8% (#260). Expect about 54.9%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.2 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Iowa State averages 68.5 possessions per 40, Niagara 63.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassNiagara
Niagara gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.6% is worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions against Niagara's offense.
GlassIowa State
Iowa State owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.0% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Iowa State's offense.
DefenseIowa State
Iowa State's ball-hawking
Iowa State ranks #9 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of Niagara's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Niagara has the ball
OffenseIowa State allowsvs D1 avg
50.5% #214
49.8% #92
-1.7 pt/100
18.9% #319
22.6% #4
-6.1 pt/100
24.8% #344
28.6% #85
-2.9 pt/100
26.6% #353
28.1% #33
-1.0 pt/100
72.2% #203
—
-0.0 pt/100
Niagara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -11.8 pts/100
Iowa State has the ball
OffenseNiagara allowsvs D1 avg
56.2% #20
52.8% #260
+5.2 pt/100
14.9% #59
16.6% #179
+1.4 pt/100
35.2% #45
32.9% #297
+2.8 pt/100
34.5% #194
33.8% #144
-0.1 pt/100
67.5% #333
—
-0.4 pt/100
Iowa State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNiagaraoffense vsIowa Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Niagara shoots
43.4
3.5
12.3
40.8
Iowa State allows
29.2
8.4
19.4
43.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.1%#320 | 63.4%#332 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 31.3%#339 | 39.4%#168 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.0%#109 | 34.6%#64 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.7%#188 | 32.0%#63 | 33.7% |
Iowa Stateoffense vsNiagaradefense
Share of shots by zone
Iowa State shoots
38.2
8.6
14.9
38.3
Niagara allows
39.2
4.4
17.0
39.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.2%#20 | 58.7%#176 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.1%#220 | 41.5%#225 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.3%#210 | 40.6%#260 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.3%#12 | 35.3%#268 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNiagara
−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#356 of 365
Off reb %
24.8%
#344
Def reb %
67.1%
#297
Turnover %
18.9%
#319
Forced TO %
16.6%
#179
FT rate
26.6%
#353
FT allowed
33.8%
#144
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.8
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−2.2
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Iowa State
+9.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#2 of 365
Off reb %
35.2%
#45
Def reb %
71.4%
#85
Turnover %
14.9%
#59
Forced TO %
22.6%
#4
FT rate
34.5%
#194
FT allowed
28.1%
#33
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers+4.0
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+1.8
Iowa State has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.2 (#2 of 365) to Niagara’s −5.9 (#356).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Niagara2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cole Farrellat Long Beach St | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 20.7 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 27.5% | 1.6 | 65.4% | 21.6% | |
| 2 | Trenton Walters | G | Sr | 5'9" | 25-7 | 22.4 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 40.8% | 35.4% | 3.2 | 81.2% | 25.2% | |
| 4 | Logan Woodsat Wright St | G | Sr | 6'5" | 35-8 | 18.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 54.0% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 17.7% | |
| 8 | Bastien Rieberat Fresno St | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-7 | 16.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 48.4% | 34.8% | 1.4 | 74.5% | 17.0% | |
| 77 | Tae Blackshearat Youngstown St | G | Sr | 6'6" | 30-0 | 14.6 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50.0% | 32.8% | 4.0 | 76.2% | 29.7% | |
| 1 | Vukasin Todorovicat Green Bay | F | So | 6'8" | 20-0 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 42.5% | 14.3% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 24.5% | |
| 9 | Gael Dalmau | G | So | 6'6" | 8-0 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 41.2% | 26.7% | 1.9 | — | 23.8% | |
| 12 | Brian Angeletti | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Daniel Emokhare | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Fidel Rotta | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Jackson Redmond | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Noah Slingerland | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Ruey Ruey | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Samuele Miccoli | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Tae Blackshear (from Youngstown St), Cole Farrell (from Long Beach St), Bastien Rieber (from Fresno St), Vukasin Todorovic (from Green Bay), Logan Woods (from Wright St)
Iowa State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Killyan Toure | G | Fr | 6'3" | 37-37 | 25.4 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 51.0% | 31.3% | 2.2 | 72.2% | 22.1% | |
| 0 | Nate Heise | G | Sr | 6'5" | 37-5 | 24.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 53.8% | 32.2% | 2.4 | 66.7% | 13.4% | |
| 23 | Blake Buchanan | F | Jr | 6'10" | 37-36 | 24.5 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 63.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 49.4% | 19.0% | |
| 1 | Jamarion Batemon | G | Fr | 6'3" | 37-0 | 15.6 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.4% | 37.0% | 3.9 | 78.8% | 24.8% | |
| 21 | Dominykas Pleta | F | Fr | 6'11" | 35-1 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 70.6% | — | 0.0 | 59.6% | 20.6% | |
| 11 | Dominick Nelson | G | Sr | 6'5" | 24-0 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 60.4% | 29.2% | |
| 4 | Eric Mulder | F | Sr | 6'9" | 20-0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 53.6% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 44.4% | 17.6% | |
| 13 | Cade Kelderman | G | Jr | 6'1" | 18-0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 0.6 | 50.0% | 12.1% | |
| 55 | Xzavion Mitchell | F | Fr | 6'6" | 7-0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 37.5% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 50.0% | 23.4% | |
| 7 | Anthony Rise | G | Fr | 6'0" | 11-0 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 18.5% | |
| 2 | Mason Williams | G | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Niagara2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cole Farrellat Long Beach St | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 20.7 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 27.5% | 1.6 | 65.4% | 21.6% | |
| 2 | Trenton Walters | G | Sr | 5'9" | 25-7 | 22.4 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 40.8% | 35.4% | 3.2 | 81.2% | 25.2% | |
| 4 | Logan Woodsat Wright St | G | Sr | 6'5" | 35-8 | 18.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 54.0% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 17.7% | |
| 8 | Bastien Rieberat Fresno St | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-7 | 16.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 48.4% | 34.8% | 1.4 | 74.5% | 17.0% | |
| 77 | Tae Blackshearat Youngstown St | G | Sr | 6'6" | 30-0 | 14.6 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50.0% | 32.8% | 4.0 | 76.2% | 29.7% | |
| 1 | Vukasin Todorovicat Green Bay | F | So | 6'8" | 20-0 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 42.5% | 14.3% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 24.5% | |
| 9 | Gael Dalmau | G | So | 6'6" | 8-0 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 41.2% | 26.7% | 1.9 | — | 23.8% | |
| 12 | Brian Angeletti | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Daniel Emokhare | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Fidel Rotta | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Jackson Redmond | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Noah Slingerland | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Ruey Ruey | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Samuele Miccoli | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Tae Blackshear (from Youngstown St), Cole Farrell (from Long Beach St), Bastien Rieber (from Fresno St), Vukasin Todorovic (from Green Bay), Logan Woods (from Wright St)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Niagara
Against the spread
Season
13-16
Home
7-5
Road
6-10
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +2.4
Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-15
Home
6-6
Road
7-9
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +2.7
Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | Merrimack | H | L 66–73 | +7.5 | W+0.5 | 127.0 | O139 | 108.9 | 120.5 | 60.6 |
| Feb 27 | Quinnipiac | H | W 78–76 OT | +8.5 | W+10.5 | 136.0 | O154 | 113.8 | 110.9 | 68.6 |
| Feb 22 | Rider | A | L 62–67 | −2.0 | L−7.0 | 130.5 | U129 | 95.5 | 103.3 | 64.9 |
| Feb 20 | Mount St Marys | A | L 63–76 | +7.5 | L−5.5 | 131.0 | O139 | 90.1 | 108.6 | 69.9 |
| Feb 15 | Iona | H | W 70–68 | +4.5 | W+6.5 | 132.0 | O138 | 124.8 | 121.2 | 56.1 |
| Feb 13 | Manhattan | H | L 69–76 | +2.0 | L−5.0 | 135.0 | O145 | 108.9 | 119.9 | 63.4 |
| Feb 7 | Quinnipiac | A | L 55–56 | +13.5 | W+12.5 | 137.5 | U111 | 92.9 | 94.6 | 59.2 |
| Feb 3 | Canisius | H | W 65–56 | −2.0 | W+7.0 | 127.0 | U121 | 113.0 | 97.3 | 57.5 |
| Feb 1 | Marist | H | L 46–58 | +9.5 | L−2.5 | 130.0 | U104 | 75.2 | 94.8 | 61.2 |
| Jan 30 | Siena | H | L 79–82 | +10.0 | W+7.0 | 128.0 | O161 | 125.3 | 130.1 | 63.0 |
Iowa State
Against the spread
Season
22-15
Home
9-8
Road
5-5
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +4.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
16-21
Home
9-8
Road
2-8
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +0.1
Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | #6Tennessee | N | L 62–76 | −3.0 | L−17.0 | 139.5 | U138 | 91.2 | 111.8 | 68.0 |
| Mar 22 | #7Kentucky | N | W 82–63 | −4.5 | W+14.5 | 146.5 | U145 | 118.4 | 91.0 | 69.2 |
| Mar 20 | #15Tennessee St | N | W 108–74 | −25.0 | W+9.0 | 147.5 | O182 | 137.7 | 94.4 | 78.4 |
| Mar 13 | #2Arizona | N | L 80–82 | +3.5 | W+1.5 | 144.5 | O162 | 120.8 | 123.9 | 66.2 |
| Mar 12 | #16Texas Tech | N | W 75–53 | −5.5 | W+16.5 | 143.5 | U128 | 115.9 | 81.9 | 64.7 |
| Mar 11 | Arizona St | N | W 91–42 | −12.5 | W+36.5 | 149.5 | U133 | 132.3 | 61.1 | 68.8 |
| Mar 7 | Arizona St | H | W 86–65 | −16.5 | W+4.5 | 148.0 | O151 | 117.9 | 89.1 | 73.0 |
| Mar 2 | #2Arizona | A | L 57–73 | +7.0 | L−9.0 | 149.0 | U130 | 85.4 | 109.3 | 66.8 |
| Feb 28 | #16Texas Tech | H | L 73–82 | −9.5 | L−18.5 | 145.0 | O155 | 113.1 | 127.1 | 64.5 |
| Feb 24 | Utah | A | W 75–59 | −14.0 | W+2.0 | 144.5 | U134 | 110.2 | 86.7 | 68.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNiagaraIowa State
Efficiency
102.5
118.3
113.6
97.6
65.0
68.2
—
—
Shooting
50.5%
56.2%
50.5%
55.4%
33.7%
38.3%
72.2%
67.5%
26.6%
34.5%
Ball control & glass
18.9%
14.9%
16.6%
22.6%
24.8%
35.2%
32.9%
28.6%
10.4%
9.6%
9.7%
10.2%
Style
40.5%
38.8%
45.0%
45.2%
10.1%
14.1%
60.0%
59.0%
37.6%
28.6%
Roster
3.67
2.34
6'3.4"
6'5.9"
10.2%
55.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNiagara
Returning minutes: 10.2%Returning production: 8.3%
Lost
- Reggie Prudhomme 26.4 mpg, 6.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Hawkins 26.2 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Page 21.1 mpg, 8.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Vice Zanki 20.3 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Josiah Sabino 19.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg · transferred to Manhattan
- Will Shortt 19.5 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Cole Farrell from Long Beach St · 20.7 mpg, 6.4 ppg last season
- Logan Woods from Wright St · 18.4 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
- Bastien Rieber from Fresno St · 16.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
- Tae Blackshear from Youngstown St · 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
- Vukasin Todorovic from Green Bay · 5.9 mpg, 1.7 ppg last season
- Brian Angeletti no D1 minutes last season
Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Iowa State
Returning minutes: 55.7%Returning production: 46.0%
Lost
- Milan Momcilovic 30.4 mpg, 16.9 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- Joshua Jefferson 29.3 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tamin Lipsey 29.0 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Mason Williams no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 56% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.