Towson Tigers vs Morgan State Bears basketball preview & prediction
Sat, Nov 14 · 1:00 PM ET · SECU Arena, Towson, MD (neutral site)
410 Invitational - ConsolationNeutral siteNon-conferenceSECU Arena, Towson, MD
Towson
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #150
vs
Morgan St
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #325
Sat, Nov 14 · 1:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Morgan St is the faster team (76.5, #46 of 365) and Towson the slower (68.2, #262). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.8
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.3#349
Towson
74.0#32
Morgan St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Morgan St has the ball−8.7
Towson has the ball−8.4
Morgan St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 39.7% #326 · TOW allows 47.2% #114−7.8
✗Coughs it upTO% 22.2% #296 · TOW forces 22.5% #62 · ~16 turnovers−4.3
✓Wins second chancesOR% 40.5% #44 · TOW allows 28.4% #131+2.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 42.9% #105 · TOW allows 40.0% #214 · FT 85.2% #13+1.3
Towson has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 46.2% #255 · MORG allows 43.4% #57−5.9
✗Coughs it upTO% 20.5% #259 · MORG forces 19.6% #121 · ~14 turnovers−1.9
✗Few second chancesOR% 37.3% #83 · MORG allows 20.6% #17−0.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 41.8% #120 · MORG allows 56.6% #333 · FT 50.7% #3490.0
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootTowsonoffense vsMorgan Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Towson shoots
46.5
5.2
14.2
34.2
Morgan St allows
39.6
0.0
5.7
54.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 47.2%#298 | 38.1%#13 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.5%#165 | — | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.4%#151 | 0.0%#1 | 34.7% |
| Three | 34.5%#138 | 34.5%#216 | 32.5% |
Morgan Stoffense vsTowsondefense
Share of shots by zone
Morgan St shoots
49.2
1.6
15.9
33.3
Towson allows
31.2
8.7
6.5
53.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 38.7%#344 | 48.8%#67 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 58.3%#302 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 10.0%#321 | 44.4%#256 | 34.7% |
| Three | 38.1%#82 | 30.5%#136 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineTowson
+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#107 of 365
Off reb %
37.3%
#83
Def reb %
71.6%
#131
Turnover %
20.5%
#259
Forced TO %
22.5%
#62
FT rate
41.8%
#120
FT allowed
40.0%
#214
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−1.6
Forcing turnovers+3.1
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Morgan St
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#156 of 365
Off reb %
40.5%
#44
Def reb %
79.4%
#17
Turnover %
22.2%
#296
Forced TO %
19.6%
#121
FT rate
42.9%
#105
FT allowed
56.6%
#333
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.0
Defensive rebounding+3.7
Ball security−2.8
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−4.9
Towson has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#107 of 365) to Morgan St’s +1.5 (#156).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notTowson2026-27 numbers · last game: Long Island, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | G | So | 6'7" | 3-3 | 30.0 | 28 | — | Started last | 13.3 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 61.3% | 50.0% | 4.0 | 22.2% | 26.5% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 30.0 | 28 | — | Started last | 11.3 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 37.1% | 36.4% | 3.7 | 72.7% | 34.3% | |
| 2 | G | So | 6'4" | 3-3 | 27.0 | 34 | — | Started last | 8.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 2.7 | 54.5% | 20.9% | |
| 11 | G | So | 6'5" | 3-3 | 26.3 | 32 | — | Started last | 10.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 48.2% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 55.6% | 27.6% | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 19.0 | 22 | — | Bench | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 44.4% | 40.0% | 1.7 | 62.5% | 28.7% | |
| 23 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 18.7 | 18 | — | Started last | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 83.3% | — | 0.0 | 45.5% | 12.9% | |
| 13 | G | So | 6'8" | 3-0 | 17.7 | 15 | — | Bench | 4.3 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 21.0% | |
| 12 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 14.0 | 17 | — | Bench | 3.3 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 45.5% | 100.0% | 0.7 | — | 21.1% | |
| 30 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 7.0 | 5 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 5.8% | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 5.3 | 0 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 18.1% | |
| 4 | F | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 2.5 | 0 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 15 | G | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 2.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 1.5 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 79.0% | |
| 22 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 2.0 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 31.3% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesTowson
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
1-0
Road
0-2
Last 10
1-2
avg cover +1.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
0-1
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total −9.7
Under 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Long Island | H | W 66–46 | −8.0 | W+12.0 | 139.5 | U112 | 100.5 | 70.0 | 65.7 |
| Nov 5 | Utah | A | L 57–67 | +8.0 | L−2.0 | 138.0 | U124 | 87.0 | 102.3 | 65.5 |
| Nov 2 | Santa Clara | A | L 70–89 | +13.5 | L−5.5 | 146.5 | O159 | 95.4 | 121.3 | 73.4 |
| Mar 9 | Hofstra | N | L 65–68 OT | +4.0 | W+1.0 | 131.5 | O133 | 106.8 | 111.7 | 60.9 |
| Mar 8 | Charleston | N | W 81–56 | +2.5 | W+27.5 | 139.0 | U137 | 134.0 | 92.7 | 60.4 |
| Mar 7 | Hampton | N | W 74–68 | −7.5 | L−1.5 | 132.0 | O142 | 108.9 | 100.1 | 67.9 |
| Mar 3 | Stony Brook | A | W 69–57 | −1.0 | W+11.0 | 135.5 | U126 | 112.7 | 93.1 | 61.2 |
| Feb 28 | Campbell | H | W 71–67 | −5.0 | L−1.0 | 141.5 | U138 | 120.0 | 113.2 | 59.2 |
| Feb 26 | Elon | H | W 58–56 | −5.5 | L−3.5 | 144.0 | U114 | 94.1 | 90.9 | 61.6 |
| Feb 22 | Drexel | A | L 62–68 | −2.5 | L−8.5 | 131.0 | U130 | 93.9 | 102.9 | 66.1 |
Morgan St
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +9.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −8.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Niagara | A | W 73–67 | +3.5 | W+9.5 | 148.0 | U140 | 95.4 | 87.5 | 76.5 |
| Nov 4 | Virginia Lynchburg Dragons | H | W 95–58 | — | — | — | — | 111.8 | 68.2 | 85.0 |
| Nov 2 | Cheyney (PA) Wolves | H | W 103–52 | — | — | — | — | 130.2 | 65.7 | 79.1 |
| Mar 11 | Delaware St | N | L 70–75 OT | −3.0 | L−8.0 | 143.0 | O145 | 93.1 | 99.8 | 75.2 |
| Mar 5 | Coppin St | H | W 70–66 | −6.5 | L−2.5 | 150.5 | U136 | 101.7 | 95.9 | 68.8 |
| Mar 2 | Norfolk St | H | W 90–84 | +3.5 | W+9.5 | 157.0 | O174 | 119.4 | 111.4 | 75.4 |
| Feb 28 | Howard | H | L 59–84 | +9.5 | L−15.5 | 158.0 | U143 | 81.9 | 116.6 | 72.0 |
| Feb 25 | SC State | A | W 90–83 | −1.5 | W+5.5 | 154.5 | O173 | 123.4 | 113.8 | 73.0 |
| Feb 21 | Delaware St | H | W 82–68 | −5.5 | W+8.5 | 145.0 | O150 | 111.8 | 92.7 | 73.4 |
| Feb 16 | NC Central | A | L 76–80 | +5.5 | W+1.5 | 148.0 | O156 | 104.3 | 109.7 | 72.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeTowsonMorgan St
Efficiency
101.5
98.6
100.4
110.6
67.3
74.0
2.4
-16.6
Shooting
46.2%
39.7%
43.5%
31.0%
34.5%
38.1%
50.7%
85.2%
41.8%
42.9%
Ball control & glass
20.5%
22.2%
22.5%
19.6%
37.3%
40.5%
28.4%
20.6%
10.8%
9.1%
15.7%
9.5%
Style
32.4%
33.3%
46.6%
35.6%
9.3%
26.0%
42.0%
33.3%
33.9%
39.7%
Roster
2.29
3.48
6'6.3"
6'5.3"
25.7%
23.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputTowson
Returning minutes: 25.7%Returning production: 21.8%
Lost
- Dylan Williamson 35.9 mpg, 14.6 ppg · transferred to Rhode Island
- Tyler Tejada 33.4 mpg, 16.7 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Jack Doumbia Jr. 22.5 mpg, 10.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tyler Coleman 18.8 mpg, 5.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mor Seck 14.5 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tyler Schmidt 13.2 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Ben Roseborough from San José St · 9.2 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
- Denis Badalau from Rutgers · 8.8 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
- Zion Stanford from Villanova · 1.5 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Jon Barton no D1 minutes last season
- Devan Kirk no D1 minutes last season
- Alex Atkinson no D1 minutes last season
Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Morgan St
Returning minutes: 23.2%Returning production: 23.1%
Lost
- Rob Lawson 32.8 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Davis 30.2 mpg, 12.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christian Meeks 28.6 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to NC Central
- Eugene Alvin 18.7 mpg, 7.0 ppg · transferred to Delaware
- Walter Peggs Jr. 18.0 mpg, 8.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christian Oliver 12.4 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Trey Pettigrew new to D1 · 29.0 mpg, 16.0 ppg last season
- Oliver Spence new to D1 · 27.0 mpg, 19.0 ppg last season
- John Awoke from Wagner · 24.5 mpg, 6.7 ppg last season
- Khali Horton from Coppin St · 19.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season
- Ibrahima Traore from Utah · 1.8 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Keith Richard no D1 minutes last season
Returns 23% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Sat, Nov 14
- UNC Greensboro at Cornell · 11:00 AM ET
- Tulane at Akron · 12:00 PM ET
- St Thomas at Army · 1:00 PM ET
- Stonehill at Texas Tech · 1:00 PM ET
- Bradley vs George Mason · 1:00 PM ET
- Montana at North Dakota · 1:00 PM ET
- Drexel at Maine · 1:00 PM ET
- Loyola Chicago at Colorado St · 1:30 PM ET
- Miami OH at Evansville · 2:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at South Carolina · 2:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at South Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Bellarmine · 2:00 PM ET
- Rice at SF Austin · 2:00 PM ET
- The Citadel at North Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Queens · 2:00 PM ET
- Jackson St at Winthrop · 2:30 PM ET
- C Michigan at N Kentucky · 3:30 PM ET
- LSU at Gonzaga · 3:30 PM ET
- Southern Utah at Wake Forest · 4:00 PM ET
- Lafayette at St Bonaventure · 4:00 PM ET
- Air Force at Pacific · 4:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at Georgia Tech · 4:00 PM ET
- Hampton at Navy · 4:00 PM ET
- Longwood at Old Dominion · 4:00 PM ET
- Wyoming at Denver · 4:00 PM ET
- S Dakota St vs N Colorado · 4:00 PM ET
- Toledo at Detroit Mercy · 4:00 PM ET
- SC Upstate at Campbell · 4:30 PM ET
- Utah Tech at California · 5:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Oakland · 5:00 PM ET
- Colorado at Providence · 6:00 PM ET
- Manhattan at Le Moyne · 6:00 PM ET
- Marshall at Youngstown St · 6:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at North Texas · 6:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at Fresno St · 6:00 PM ET
- Penn at Saint Joseph's · 6:30 PM ET
- Brown at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Austin Peay at Wichita St · 7:00 PM ET
- UAB at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at W Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at Fairfield · 7:00 PM ET
- Portland St at San Francisco · 7:00 PM ET
- Washington at Utah · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- UT Rio Grande at UT Arlington · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
- Louisiana at UNC Wilmington · 7:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati at Dayton · 7:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Morehead St · 7:30 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Grand Canyon · 8:00 PM ET
- UC Davis at Sacramento St · 8:00 PM ET
- Louisiana Tech at Nicholls · 8:00 PM ET
- N'Western St at Little Rock · 8:00 PM ET
- Furman at Belmont · 8:30 PM ET
- Utah Valley at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
- New Mexico at Santa Clara · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.