CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCurry Arena, Charlotte, NC
Wofford
Efficiency #235
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
@
Queens
Efficiency #191
2025-26: 21-14 · 16-5 conf
Sat, Nov 14 · 2:00 PM ET
78.6
win 31%
Projected
84.2
win 69%
No line posted yet.
Model: QUC −5.7 · total 162.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Queens 69.7, Wofford 68.6 → 70.0 possessions
+3.7
Queens offense vs Wofford defense
+6.3
Wofford offense vs Queens defense
+4.6
Projected total
162.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Queens offense vs Wofford defense
+6.3
Wofford offense vs Queens defense
−4.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Queens by 5.7
5.7
Wofford side ◂▸ Queens side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Queens.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Queens is the faster team (70.6, #68 of 365) and Wofford the slower (68.4, #178). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
162.8
model
Projected team totals
78.6 / 84.2
Wofford / Queens
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#156
Wofford
69.7#68
Queens

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageQueens
Where Queens scores: shooting
Queens shoots an effective 56.4% (#15); Wofford allows 53.8% (#294). Expect about 55.6%, 4.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageWofford
Where Wofford scores: ball control
Wofford turns it over on 13.4% of possessions (#13); Queens forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#277). Expect about 13.8%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversQueens
Queens protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.5% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Queens's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Queens's defense, Wofford's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Wofford at about 42.4% of its shots from three, Queens about 44.2%.
Wofford has the ball
OffenseQueens allowsvs D1 avg
52.5% #127
54.6% #319
+3.4 pt/100
13.4% #13
15.1% #277
+3.7 pt/100
29.8% #212
33.6% #308
+0.7 pt/100
36.2% #144
38.1% #263
+0.3 pt/100
70.9% #243
—
-0.1 pt/100
Wofford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.9 pts/100
Queens has the ball
OffenseWofford allowsvs D1 avg
56.4% #15
53.8% #294
+6.1 pt/100
14.8% #54
14.9% #293
+2.8 pt/100
30.2% #190
29.0% #101
-0.5 pt/100
35.4% #167
36.8% #232
+0.2 pt/100
74.9% #88
—
+0.2 pt/100
Queens net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Woffordoffense vsQueensdefense
Share of shots by zone
Wofford shoots
Queens allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23358.9%#18658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.1%#11850.5%#35739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.8%#26637.8%#15338.0%
Three35.0%#11936.5%#32533.7%
Queensoffense vsWofforddefense
Share of shots by zone
Queens shoots
Wofford allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.2%#3256.2%#9158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.8%#4248.3%#34239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.5%#9540.8%#27138.0%
Three35.7%#7436.4%#32133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Wofford
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#124 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#212
Def reb %
71.0%
#101
Turnover %
13.4%
#13
Forced TO %
14.9%
#293
FT rate
36.2%
#144
FT allowed
36.8%
#232
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+2.3
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn+0.3
Foul shots allowed−0.4
Queens
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#251 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#190
Def reb %
66.4%
#308
Turnover %
14.8%
#54
Forced TO %
15.1%
#277
FT rate
35.4%
#167
FT allowed
38.1%
#263
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.7

Wofford has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.4 (#124 of 365) to Queens’s −1.3 (#251).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Wofford2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Wofford's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Nils MachowskiGJr6'3"32-3233.717.25.72.61.754.2%38.2%7.479.0%28.9%
0Cayden VaskoGJr6'6"32-3231.910.44.54.11.149.3%32.1%5.380.0%20.1%
11Kahmare HolmesGSo6'3"26-2631.919.55.72.71.954.6%35.2%4.965.5%34.8%
4Chace WatleyGFr6'2"32-1524.89.73.31.31.145.8%30.6%3.176.7%24.8%
1Brian SumpterFFr6'8"31-2122.76.64.90.80.960.6%16.7%0.461.5%16.3%
2Luke FlynnGSo6'1"21-1826.05.73.91.20.545.6%33.8%3.775.8%13.6%
25Rex StirlingFJr6'8"30-914.55.13.10.90.957.3%0.0%0.061.4%21.6%
5Brendan RigsbeeGJr6'2"25-515.84.21.70.80.554.3%22.2%1.469.2%15.9%
8Jayden TylerGFr5'10"25-013.25.41.00.50.460.6%47.5%2.453.7%22.0%
10Maximo OrtegaGFr6'2"22-09.23.51.10.50.559.0%41.2%0.865.4%20.9%
32Callum RichardCJr6'10"7-17.12.31.40.40.772.7%—0.0—19.8%
7Cannon RichardsFSo6'7"2-17.53.02.00.50.537.5%50.0%1.075.0%27.8%
12Grayson CollinsGSo5'11"8-01.80.00.00.10.00.0%0.0%0.3—12.5%
14Davis MillerGJr6'3"6-01.70.50.30.00.075.0%100.0%0.2—12.0%
9Alessandro PerottiFJr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
WoffordQueens
Efficiency
109.2
113.5
112.4
114.4
68.6
69.7
—
—
Shooting
52.5%
56.4%
52.5%
58.9%
35.0%
35.7%
70.9%
74.9%
36.2%
35.4%
Ball control & glass
13.4%
14.8%
14.9%
15.1%
29.8%
30.2%
29.0%
33.6%
8.1%
9.0%
9.5%
9.4%
Style
43.1%
46.5%
42.9%
43.6%
10.7%
13.2%
51.2%
54.9%
26.7%
32.2%
Roster
2.15
2.73
6'3.8"
6'6.2"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Wofford
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Wofford's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Queens
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Queens's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Tue, Nov 242026-27Queens 0 – 0 Wofford

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.