CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAmica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, RI

Colorado

Efficiency #91

2025-26: 17-16 · 7-12 conf

Providence

Efficiency #81

2025-26: 15-18 · 8-14 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · TBD

80.2

win 33%

Projected

85.2

win 67%

No line posted yet.

Model: PROV −5.0 · total 165.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Providence 70.9, Colorado 69.3 → 71.9 possessions

+7.7

Providence offense vs Colorado defense

+5.2

Colorado offense vs Providence defense

+4.3

Projected total

165.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Providence offense vs Colorado defense

+5.2

Colorado offense vs Providence defense

−4.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Providence by 5.0

5.0

Colorado side ◂▸ Providence side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Providence.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Providence is the faster team (72.3, #21 of 365) and Colorado the slower (70.2, #87). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

165.4

model

Projected team totals

80.2 / 85.2

Colorado / Providence

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.3#102

Colorado

70.9#18

Providence

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageColorado

Where Colorado scores: ball control

Colorado turns it over on 14.6% of possessions (#46); Providence forces turnovers on 13.1% of opponent possessions (#352). Expect about 13.2%, 3.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.4 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Providence averages 72.3 possessions per 40, Colorado 70.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageProvidence

Where Providence scores: shooting

Providence shoots an effective 55.0% (#37); Colorado allows 52.6% (#243). Expect about 54.1%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.0 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Providence, Colorado's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Colorado at about 35.5% of its shots from three, Providence about 38.3%.

Colorado has the ball

OffenseProvidence allowsvs D1 avg

52.9% #108

51.4% #179

+1.4 pt/100

14.6% #46

13.1% #352

+4.4 pt/100

29.0% #235

30.8% #195

-0.5 pt/100

36.7% #139

32.7% #125

-0.1 pt/100

76.1% #50

—

+0.3 pt/100

Colorado net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.6 pts/100

Providence has the ball

OffenseColorado allowsvs D1 avg

55.0% #37

52.6% #243

+4.0 pt/100

16.7% #174

15.3% #267

+1.2 pt/100

31.7% #135

29.6% #144

+0.3 pt/100

36.7% #138

36.6% #228

+0.2 pt/100

75.7% #60

—

+0.3 pt/100

Providence net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Coloradooffense vsProvidencedefense

Share of shots by zone

Colorado shoots

40.5

8.7

16.1

34.7

Providence allows

37.3

6.1

18.4

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.1%#157	57.2%#121	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.5%#187	46.7%#329	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#48	37.9%#154	38.0%
Three	35.2%#104	35.3%#265	33.7%

Providenceoffense vsColoradodefense

Share of shots by zone

Providence shoots

40.7

4.6

14.1

40.5

Colorado allows

38.1

8.5

16.7

36.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.2%#88	57.7%#136	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#156	35.7%#81	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.2%#107	43.6%#337	38.0%
Three	36.4%#45	36.3%#319	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Colorado

+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#164 of 365

Off reb %

29.0%

#235

Def reb %

70.4%

#144

Turnover %

14.6%

#46

Forced TO %

15.3%

#267

FT rate

36.7%

#139

FT allowed

36.6%

#228

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.5

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed−0.4

Providence

−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#228 of 365

Off reb %

31.7%

#135

Def reb %

69.2%

#195

Turnover %

16.7%

#174

Forced TO %

13.1%

#352

FT rate

36.7%

#138

FT allowed

32.7%

#125

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−2.4

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Colorado has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#164 of 365) to Providence’s −0.9 (#228).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Colorado2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Barrington Hargress	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	32.5	14.7	2.2	4.5	1.2	61.0%	48.1%	3.3	83.5%	22.3%
2	Isaiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'1"	32-15	30.6	16.9	2.9	3.0	1.4	57.1%	37.8%	4.6	82.1%	27.6%
8	Bangot Dak	F	Jr	7'0"	32-30	25.7	11.5	6.5	1.4	1.3	51.5%	25.9%	1.7	73.6%	26.4%
5	Josiah Sanders	G	Fr	6'5"	33-7	18.0	4.4	2.6	1.7	0.8	47.6%	12.5%	0.7	51.9%	17.0%
3	Alon Michaeli	F	Fr	6'9"	31-0	17.5	7.1	3.9	1.0	1.0	44.6%	29.0%	2.0	72.2%	27.3%
11	Jalin Holland	G	Fr	6'5"	31-10	17.5	4.9	2.7	0.8	1.0	44.1%	27.8%	1.7	54.2%	20.9%
15	Felix Kossaras	G	So	6'6"	28-17	16.4	4.6	1.5	0.4	0.5	60.8%	38.0%	1.8	75.0%	14.3%
50	Elijah Malone	C	Sr	6'10"	30-24	13.9	4.3	3.0	0.7	0.8	52.3%	28.6%	0.5	77.3%	19.1%
0	Ian Inman	G	Fr	6'6"	22-1	10.4	4.1	1.0	0.4	0.4	55.1%	36.7%	2.7	62.5%	22.4%
25	Fawaz Ifaola	C	Fr	7'0"	20-2	7.8	0.7	2.0	0.3	0.4	77.8%	—	0.0	0.0%	6.8%
42	Andrew Crawford	G	Fr	6'8"	9-0	5.3	1.6	0.7	0.3	0.3	65.0%	60.0%	0.6	50.0%	16.4%
41	Nick Randall	F	So	6'8"	2-0	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	29.1%
1	Jon Mani	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Leonardo Van Elswyk	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Providence2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Stefan Vaaks	G	Fr	6'7"	31-22	31.5	15.8	2.5	3.2	1.9	52.2%	35.0%	8.4	83.9%	27.9%
11	Ryan Mela	G	So	6'7"	33-22	25.9	9.9	5.3	2.0	1.6	53.9%	32.1%	1.7	80.5%	21.6%
55	Oswin Erhunmwunse	F	So	6'10"	33-31	25.0	6.9	8.3	0.8	1.4	67.3%	—	0.0	52.5%	15.0%
1	Jason Edwards	G	Sr	6'1"	23-13	26.7	16.5	2.8	3.0	1.8	51.6%	34.3%	6.1	79.0%	33.8%
14	Corey Floyd Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	24-18	25.4	7.6	4.0	2.5	1.5	49.3%	37.3%	2.1	79.5%	18.5%
13	Cole Hargrove	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	13.1	1.8	2.9	0.5	0.5	51.4%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	8.8%
31	Duncan Powell	F	Sr	6'8"	22-5	16.6	4.6	3.0	0.8	0.7	47.7%	30.8%	3.0	60.7%	17.6%
20	Nilavan Daniels	G	So	6'3"	20-1	9.8	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	69.6%	47.6%	1.1	77.8%	8.8%
17	Peteris Pinnis	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	4.1	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.4	53.8%	—	0.0	33.3%	16.9%
4	Jaylen Harrell	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	8.8	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	59.4%	27.3%	1.8	100.0%	17.8%
3	Daquan Davis	G	So	6'1"	3-0	9.3	0.7	0.3	1.0	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	0.0%	9.9%
8	Jack Williams	G	Sr	6'4"	7-0	1.9	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.4	—	12.8%
10	Rich Barron	F	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Colorado2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Barrington Hargress	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	32.5	14.7	2.2	4.5	1.2	61.0%	48.1%	3.3	83.5%	22.3%
2	Isaiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'1"	32-15	30.6	16.9	2.9	3.0	1.4	57.1%	37.8%	4.6	82.1%	27.6%
8	Bangot Dak	F	Jr	7'0"	32-30	25.7	11.5	6.5	1.4	1.3	51.5%	25.9%	1.7	73.6%	26.4%
5	Josiah Sanders	G	Fr	6'5"	33-7	18.0	4.4	2.6	1.7	0.8	47.6%	12.5%	0.7	51.9%	17.0%
3	Alon Michaeli	F	Fr	6'9"	31-0	17.5	7.1	3.9	1.0	1.0	44.6%	29.0%	2.0	72.2%	27.3%
11	Jalin Holland	G	Fr	6'5"	31-10	17.5	4.9	2.7	0.8	1.0	44.1%	27.8%	1.7	54.2%	20.9%
15	Felix Kossaras	G	So	6'6"	28-17	16.4	4.6	1.5	0.4	0.5	60.8%	38.0%	1.8	75.0%	14.3%
50	Elijah Malone	C	Sr	6'10"	30-24	13.9	4.3	3.0	0.7	0.8	52.3%	28.6%	0.5	77.3%	19.1%
0	Ian Inman	G	Fr	6'6"	22-1	10.4	4.1	1.0	0.4	0.4	55.1%	36.7%	2.7	62.5%	22.4%
25	Fawaz Ifaola	C	Fr	7'0"	20-2	7.8	0.7	2.0	0.3	0.4	77.8%	—	0.0	0.0%	6.8%
42	Andrew Crawford	G	Fr	6'8"	9-0	5.3	1.6	0.7	0.3	0.3	65.0%	60.0%	0.6	50.0%	16.4%
41	Nick Randall	F	So	6'8"	2-0	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	29.1%
1	Jon Mani	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Leonardo Van Elswyk	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Colorado

Against the spread

Season

17-16

Home

11-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover −0.1

Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-16

Home

9-9

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.9

Over 5 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 1	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 86–90 OT	+9.0	W+5.0	162.0	O176	103.8	108.6	82.9
Mar 10	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	N	L 83–92	−1.0	L−10.0	165.0	O175	113.5	125.8	73.1
Mar 7	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	H	L 79–89	+13.5	W+3.5	156.0	O168	108.7	122.5	72.7
Mar 3	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 92–78	−1.0	W+13.0	148.5	O170	143.9	122.0	63.9
Feb 28	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	A	L 62–102	+19.0	L−21.0	138.5	O164	89.7	147.5	69.1
Feb 25	Kansas StAdjEM #128	H	W 79–70	−6.0	W+3.0	163.0	U149	98.2	87.0	80.4
Feb 21	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	H	W 83–69	−3.5	W+10.5	162.5	U152	114.9	95.6	72.2
Feb 14	#22BYUAdjEM #26	A	L 86–90 OT	+15.5	W+11.5	162.0	O176	104.6	109.5	82.2
Feb 11	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	A	L 44–78	+13.5	L−20.5	155.5	U122	69.1	122.4	63.7
Feb 7	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 78–70	−3.5	W+4.5	158.0	U148	118.9	106.7	65.6

Providence

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

9-7

Road

6-5-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover +0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

22-11

Home

11-5

Road

8-4

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −3.0

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#13St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 72–85	+12.0	L−1.0	159.5	U157	95.4	112.6	75.5
Mar 11	ButlerAdjEM #87	N	W 91–81	−2.0	W+8.0	162.5	O172	125.4	111.6	72.6
Mar 7	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	L 79–80	+1.0	P0.0	157.0	O159	108.5	109.8	72.8
Mar 4	MarquetteAdjEM #100	H	L 56–78	−4.5	L−26.5	162.0	U134	78.9	109.9	71.0
Feb 28	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 79–76	+4.0	W+7.0	167.0	U155	116.3	111.9	67.9
Feb 25	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 94–84	−5.5	W+4.5	170.0	O178	135.3	120.9	69.5
Feb 21	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 71–68	+3.0	W+6.0	152.5	U139	105.7	101.2	67.2
Feb 14	#17St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 69–79	+7.5	L−2.5	167.0	U148	91.6	104.9	75.3
Feb 11	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	L 80–87	+5.0	L−2.0	150.5	O167	116.8	127.1	68.5
Feb 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	H	W 90–72	−5.0	W+13.0	153.5	O162	125.8	100.6	71.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ColoradoProvidence

Efficiency

113.2

115.4

108.7

109.8

69.3

70.9

—

Shooting

52.9%

55.0%

53.0%

55.3%

35.2%

36.4%

76.1%

75.7%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

14.6%

16.7%

15.3%

13.1%

29.0%

31.7%

29.6%

30.8%

8.4%

10.4%

9.2%

8.6%

Style

35.2%

40.5%

43.9%

43.4%

16.7%

14.3%

55.2%

47.5%

34.7%

30.8%

Roster

1.94

2.57

6'5.6"

6'6.4"

87.8%

73.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Colorado

Returning minutes: 87.8%Returning production: 87.0%

Lost

Sebastian Rancik 24.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Leonardo Van Elswyk no D1 minutes last season
Jon Mani no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Providence

Returning minutes: 73.6%Returning production: 69.1%

Lost

Jaylin Sellers 30.0 mpg, 18.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jamier Jones 24.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Rich Barron no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 74% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Nov 14	2025-26	Providence 88 – 97 Colorado

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.