South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs Northern Colorado Bears basketball preview & prediction
Sat, Nov 14 · 4:00 PM ET · The Monument, Rapid City, SD (neutral site)
Neutral siteNon-conferenceThe Monument, Rapid City, SD
S Dakota St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #156
vs
N Colorado
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #196
Sat, Nov 14 · 4:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, N Colorado is the faster team (67.3, #281 of 365) and S Dakota St the slower (66.9, #295). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.1
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.2#321
S Dakota St
70.4#197
N Colorado
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
N Colorado has the ball−6.5
S Dakota St has the ball+8.4
N Colorado has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 23.7% #302 · SDST allows 23.1% #43−4.0
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 28.6% #267 · SDST allows 34.0% #152 · FT 43.8% #357−2.1
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.0% #176 · SDST allows 49.1% #151−0.8
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.8% #174 · SDST forces 17.9% #180 · ~12 turnovers+0.3
S Dakota St has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.0% #85 · UNCO forces 7.4% #356 · ~6 turnovers+7.3
✓Shoots it welleFG% 52.6% #145 · UNCO allows 59.2% #317+5.7
✗Few second chancesOR% 20.0% #333 · UNCO allows 32.4% #202−3.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 22.8% #325 · UNCO allows 29.2% #90 · FT 61.5% #293−1.5
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootS Dakota Stoffense vsN Coloradodefense
Share of shots by zone
S Dakota St shoots
38.6
8.8
10.5
42.1
N Colorado allows
40.4
3.8
15.4
40.4
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.0%#261 | 71.4%#318 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.0%#153 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#174 | 62.5%#335 | 34.7% |
| Three | 41.7%#45 | 31.8%#161 | 32.5% |
N Coloradooffense vsS Dakota Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
N Colorado shoots
56.8
11.4
4.5
27.3
S Dakota St allows
32.1
7.5
7.5
52.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 44.0%#323 | 52.9%#108 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.0%#153 | 75.0%#336 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 50.0%#45 | 50.0%#285 | 34.7% |
| Three | 44.4%#21 | 28.6%#99 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineS Dakota St
−1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#197 of 365
Off reb %
20.0%
#333
Def reb %
76.9%
#43
Turnover %
15.0%
#85
Forced TO %
17.9%
#180
FT rate
22.8%
#325
FT allowed
34.0%
#152
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.8
Defensive rebounding+2.8
Ball security+2.3
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−3.8
Foul shots allowed+1.0
N Colorado
−10.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#316 of 365
Off reb %
23.7%
#302
Def reb %
67.6%
#202
Turnover %
17.8%
#174
Forced TO %
7.4%
#356
FT rate
28.6%
#267
FT allowed
29.2%
#90
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.6
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers−7.5
Foul shots drawn−2.3
Foul shots allowed+2.3
S Dakota St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.5 (#197 of 365) to N Colorado’s −10.1 (#316).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
S Dakota St2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 31.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 52.8% | 30.0% | 5.0 | 33.3% | 24.1% | Active | |
| 22 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 29.0 | 17.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 59.1% | 54.5% | 5.5 | 80.0% | 27.2% | Active | |
| 5 | F | So | 6'8" | 2-2 | 27.5 | 16.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 63.6% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 66.7% | 28.7% | Active | |
| 10 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 26.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 47.4% | 33.3% | 3.0 | — | 28.5% | Active | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 25.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 28.6% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 11.5% | Active | |
| 0 | G | So | 6'1" | 2-0 | 18.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 43.8% | 20.0% | 2.5 | — | 14.5% | Active | |
| 1 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 14.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 18.4% | Active | |
| 23 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 11.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 22.3% | Active | |
| 6 | G | So | 6'6" | 1-0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 15.4% | Active | |
| 11 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 90.0% | 50.0% | 2.0 | — | 33.9% | Active | |
| 4 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 18.9% | Active | |
| 21 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 11.3% | Active |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesS Dakota St
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +13.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −25.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Briar Cliff Chargers | H | W 71–49 | — | — | — | — | 99.9 | 68.9 | 71.1 |
| Nov 3 | Kansas St | A | W 68–66 | +11.0 | W+13.0 | 159.0 | U134 | 101.7 | 98.7 | 66.9 |
| Mar 5 | St Thomas | N | L 67–80 | +5.0 | L−8.0 | 150.0 | U147 | 104.3 | 124.5 | 64.3 |
| Feb 28 | South Dakota | A | L 70–75 | −3.0 | L−8.0 | 151.0 | U145 | 100.8 | 108.0 | 69.4 |
| Feb 26 | Kansas City | A | W 73–59 | −12.0 | W+2.0 | 151.0 | U132 | 113.8 | 92.0 | 64.1 |
| Feb 21 | North Dakota | H | W 91–83 | −8.0 | P0.0 | 151.5 | O174 | 138.3 | 126.2 | 65.8 |
| Feb 18 | N Dakota St | H | L 66–74 | +1.0 | L−7.0 | 147.0 | U140 | 100.8 | 113.0 | 65.5 |
| Feb 14 | Oral Roberts | A | W 87–69 | −5.5 | W+12.5 | 147.5 | O156 | 131.5 | 104.3 | 66.2 |
| Feb 12 | Denver | A | L 61–79 | −2.0 | L−20.0 | 160.5 | U140 | 96.2 | 124.5 | 63.4 |
| Feb 7 | South Dakota | H | L 67–68 | −11.5 | L−12.5 | 157.5 | U135 | 96.1 | 97.6 | 69.7 |
N Colorado
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −7.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +9.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Northern New Mexico Eagles | H | W 102–52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 6 | Arizona St | A | L 63–90 | +19.5 | L−7.5 | 144.0 | O153 | 93.6 | 133.7 | 67.3 |
| Nov 2 | Colorado College Tigers | H | W 117–64 | — | — | — | — | 149.5 | 81.8 | 78.3 |
| Mar 9 | Montana | N | L 89–95 | −4.5 | L−10.5 | 152.5 | O184 | 119.3 | 127.4 | 74.6 |
| Mar 2 | Montana | H | W 85–57 | −5.5 | W+22.5 | 155.0 | U142 | 116.0 | 77.8 | 73.3 |
| Feb 28 | Idaho | A | W 76–67 | +2.0 | W+11.0 | 156.0 | U143 | 113.4 | 100.0 | 67.0 |
| Feb 26 | E Washington | A | L 72–82 | −1.0 | L−11.0 | 157.0 | U154 | 107.8 | 122.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 21 | N Arizona | H | W 78–77 | −12.5 | L−11.5 | 150.5 | O155 | 117.1 | 115.6 | 66.6 |
| Feb 14 | Portland St | H | W 77–65 | −3.5 | W+8.5 | 149.5 | U142 | 111.5 | 94.1 | 69.1 |
| Feb 12 | Sacramento St | H | W 95–79 | −10.5 | W+5.5 | 165.0 | O174 | 119.6 | 99.4 | 79.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeS Dakota StN Colorado
Efficiency
106.0
107.0
105.4
109.5
68.2
70.4
2.3
8.8
Shooting
52.6%
50.0%
45.5%
42.1%
41.7%
44.4%
61.5%
43.8%
22.8%
28.6%
Ball control & glass
15.0%
17.8%
17.9%
7.4%
20.0%
23.7%
23.1%
32.4%
9.0%
11.9%
9.1%
10.5%
Style
42.1%
32.1%
38.2%
50.8%
8.8%
7.9%
48.0%
54.2%
30.5%
40.3%
Roster
2.25
2.77
6'4.9"
6'5.6"
34.8%
16.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputS Dakota St
Returning minutes: 42.4%Returning production: 41.3%
Lost
- Jaden Jackson 32.1 mpg, 12.3 ppg · transferred to Georgia St
- Matthew Mors 27.7 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Damon Wilkinson 24.0 mpg, 13.9 ppg · transferred to Nebraska
- Luke Haertle 14.0 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bubz Alvarez 9.8 mpg, 3.0 ppg · transferred to Hou Christian
- Caleb Delzell 7.8 mpg, 1.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- EJ Ryans from W Michigan · 27.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
- Myles Thompson from SIUE · 7.2 mpg, 2.7 ppg last season
- Jon Mekonnen from Colorado St · 1.6 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Semaj Stampley no D1 minutes last season
- Davis Kern no D1 minutes last season
- Blake Ellwein no D1 minutes last season
Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).
N Colorado
Returning minutes: 25.1%Returning production: 20.4%
Lost
- Zach Bloch 32.5 mpg, 11.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Quinn Denker 32.2 mpg, 18.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brock Wisne 31.0 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ibu Yamazaki 27.1 mpg, 9.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ring Nyeri 25.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg · transferred to Wake Forest
- Chancellor White 1.7 mpg, 0.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Langston Reynolds from Minnesota · 33.2 mpg, 11.6 ppg last season
- Kaidon Rayfield from UTSA · 17.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
- Chiante' Tramble from Southern Miss · 12.0 mpg, 3.5 ppg last season
- Andrew Crawford from Colorado · 1.5 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Drew Paine no D1 minutes last season
- Jeremiah Hammond no D1 minutes last season
Returns 25% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Sat, Nov 14
- UNC Greensboro at Cornell · 11:00 AM ET
- Tulane at Akron · 12:00 PM ET
- St Thomas at Army · 1:00 PM ET
- Stonehill at Texas Tech · 1:00 PM ET
- Bradley vs George Mason · 1:00 PM ET
- Towson vs Morgan St · 1:00 PM ET
- Montana at North Dakota · 1:00 PM ET
- Drexel at Maine · 1:00 PM ET
- Loyola Chicago at Colorado St · 1:30 PM ET
- Miami OH at Evansville · 2:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at South Carolina · 2:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at South Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Bellarmine · 2:00 PM ET
- Rice at SF Austin · 2:00 PM ET
- The Citadel at North Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Queens · 2:00 PM ET
- Jackson St at Winthrop · 2:30 PM ET
- C Michigan at N Kentucky · 3:30 PM ET
- LSU at Gonzaga · 3:30 PM ET
- Southern Utah at Wake Forest · 4:00 PM ET
- Lafayette at St Bonaventure · 4:00 PM ET
- Air Force at Pacific · 4:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at Georgia Tech · 4:00 PM ET
- Hampton at Navy · 4:00 PM ET
- Longwood at Old Dominion · 4:00 PM ET
- Wyoming at Denver · 4:00 PM ET
- Toledo at Detroit Mercy · 4:00 PM ET
- SC Upstate at Campbell · 4:30 PM ET
- Utah Tech at California · 5:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Oakland · 5:00 PM ET
- Colorado at Providence · 6:00 PM ET
- Manhattan at Le Moyne · 6:00 PM ET
- Marshall at Youngstown St · 6:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at North Texas · 6:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at Fresno St · 6:00 PM ET
- Penn at Saint Joseph's · 6:30 PM ET
- Brown at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Austin Peay at Wichita St · 7:00 PM ET
- UAB at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at W Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at Fairfield · 7:00 PM ET
- Portland St at San Francisco · 7:00 PM ET
- Washington at Utah · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- UT Rio Grande at UT Arlington · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
- Louisiana at UNC Wilmington · 7:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati at Dayton · 7:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Morehead St · 7:30 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Grand Canyon · 8:00 PM ET
- UC Davis at Sacramento St · 8:00 PM ET
- Louisiana Tech at Nicholls · 8:00 PM ET
- N'Western St at Little Rock · 8:00 PM ET
- Furman at Belmont · 8:30 PM ET
- Utah Valley at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
- New Mexico at Santa Clara · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.