CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNewman Arena, Ithaca, NY

UNC Greensboro

Efficiency #301

2025-26: 15-19 · 11-10 conf

Cornell

Efficiency #135

2025-26: 15-13 · 8-7 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · 11:00 AM ET

78.8

win 18%

Projected

89.5

win 82%

No line posted yet.

Model: COR −10.7 · total 168.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Cornell 70.9, UNC Greensboro 68.6 → 71.1 possessions

+6.1

Cornell offense vs UNC Greensboro defense

+10.3

UNC Greensboro offense vs Cornell defense

+3.6

Projected total

168.3

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Cornell offense vs UNC Greensboro defense

+10.3

UNC Greensboro offense vs Cornell defense

−3.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Cornell by 10.7

10.7

UNC Greensboro side ◂▸ Cornell side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 168.2 against a projected 168.3, and the margin steps add to +10.8 against +10.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Cornell.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cornell is the faster team (71.3, #40 of 365) and UNC Greensboro the slower (68.5, #170). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

168.3

model

Projected team totals

78.8 / 89.5

UNC Greensboro / Cornell

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#161

UNC Greensboro

70.9#19

Cornell

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageCornell

Where Cornell scores: shooting

Cornell shoots an effective 58.5% (#7); UNC Greensboro allows 56.2% (#347). Expect about 58.0%, 6.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +9.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashCornell

Style match: 3-point volume

Cornell takes 51.6% of its shots from three; UNC Greensboro lets opponents take 46.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 53.8% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageUNC Greensboro

Where UNC Greensboro scores: shooting

UNC Greensboro shoots an effective 52.0% (#146); Cornell allows 55.9% (#343). Expect about 54.0%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversCornell

Cornell protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.3% is worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions for Cornell's offense.

TurnoversUNC Greensboro

UNC Greensboro protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for UNC Greensboro's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Cornell, Cornell's defense, UNC Greensboro's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UNC Greensboro at about 39.3% of its shots from three, Cornell about 53.8%.

UNC Greensboro has the ball

OffenseCornell allowsvs D1 avg

52.0% #146

55.9% #343

+3.9 pt/100

15.0% #63

15.1% #279

+2.6 pt/100

28.1% #259

30.6% #187

-0.9 pt/100

42.0% #31

37.2% #244

+0.6 pt/100

70.4% #256

—

-0.2 pt/100

UNC Greensboro net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.0 pts/100

Cornell has the ball

OffenseUNC Greensboro allowsvs D1 avg

58.5% #7

56.2% #347

+9.6 pt/100

16.0% #139

13.7% #343

+3.0 pt/100

30.2% #193

29.0% #104

-0.5 pt/100

30.2% #304

30.6% #74

-0.6 pt/100

74.1% #124

—

+0.2 pt/100

Cornell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +11.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Greensborooffense vsCornelldefense

Share of shots by zone

UNC Greensboro shoots

34.6

5.7

19.9

39.9

Cornell allows

43.4

4.0

14.5

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.0%#197	60.7%#256	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.2%#100	44.6%#285	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.8%#83	41.7%#293	38.0%
Three	35.6%#80	37.5%#349	33.7%

Cornelloffense vsUNC Greensborodefense

Share of shots by zone

Cornell shoots

38.5

2.3

8.1

51.1

UNC Greensboro allows

33.7

5.0

14.7

46.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.8%#77	63.6%#336	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	51.5%#7	44.4%#279	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.5%#31	37.9%#155	38.0%
Three	38.3%#14	38.0%#357	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Greensboro

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#102 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#259

Def reb %

71.0%

#104

Turnover %

15.0%

#63

Forced TO %

13.7%

#343

FT rate

42.0%

#31

FT allowed

30.6%

#74

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−2.1

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Cornell

−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#281 of 365

Off reb %

30.2%

#193

Def reb %

69.4%

#187

Turnover %

16.0%

#139

Forced TO %

15.1%

#279

FT rate

30.2%

#304

FT allowed

37.2%

#244

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed−0.5

UNC Greensboro has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#102 of 365) to Cornell’s −2.4 (#281).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UNC Greensboro2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Justin Neely	F	Sr	6'6"	34-34	32.3	17.9	11.5	2.4	2.2	56.5%	31.4%	1.5	78.4%	29.6%
21	KJ Younger	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	28.5	15.1	4.7	1.2	1.2	52.9%	34.1%	5.4	71.1%	29.8%
13	Donald Whitehead Jr.	G	Sr	5'10"	34-20	26.2	10.1	1.6	2.4	1.1	45.7%	30.7%	4.9	69.2%	24.8%
6	Noah Norgaard	G	Fr	6'2"	34-26	25.1	7.7	2.1	1.5	1.2	51.1%	37.2%	3.8	70.0%	19.5%
11	Valentino Pinedo	F	Sr	6'8"	32-28	26.4	7.3	4.9	1.3	1.0	60.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.9%
45	Lilian Marville	G	Fr	6'1"	31-21	26.2	9.5	2.0	2.3	1.3	56.5%	52.2%	3.0	75.0%	20.7%
16	Domas Kauzonas	F	Jr	6'10"	33-6	9.9	2.9	1.6	0.3	0.7	57.5%	—	0.0	42.3%	19.2%
4	Assane Mandian	G	Fr	6'7"	22-0	8.0	2.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	56.4%	37.0%	1.2	100.0%	16.2%
24	Landon King	G	Jr	6'1"	20-1	8.6	2.5	0.9	0.7	0.3	44.4%	32.4%	1.9	42.9%	21.5%
7	Clyde Bailey II	G	Sr	6'1"	13-0	6.7	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.3	52.8%	27.3%	0.8	80.0%	15.6%
0	Antwann Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	7-0	11.4	3.4	2.1	0.4	0.9	47.9%	37.5%	1.1	50.0%	21.8%
8	Chane Bynum	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	4.2	1.7	1.5	0.2	0.2	36.5%	23.1%	1.0	75.0%	29.5%
9	Braylen Bowman	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	3.2	1.6	0.4	1.2	0.0	66.7%	50.0%	0.8	—	18.6%
3	Jordan Brown	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cornell2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Cooper Noard	G	Sr	6'2"	28-28	27.5	18.2	3.3	2.0	1.6	61.6%	37.6%	7.6	90.3%	31.6%
8	Adam Hinton	G	Sr	6'4"	28-28	24.6	12.5	3.1	1.9	1.3	59.1%	41.5%	4.8	77.6%	26.1%
5	Jacob Beccles	G	Jr	6'3"	28-27	23.4	7.7	2.5	3.1	1.3	52.9%	32.8%	2.2	67.3%	19.8%
22	Jake Fiegen	G	Sr	6'4"	24-17	26.1	17.1	5.1	2.1	1.2	64.9%	41.4%	5.5	77.2%	30.4%
21	Kaspar Sepp	F	Jr	6'7"	28-15	18.8	4.8	5.5	2.6	1.3	50.5%	23.8%	0.8	66.0%	17.2%
24	Josh Baldwin	G	Sr	6'5"	26-13	19.0	7.4	4.1	3.2	1.7	52.2%	33.9%	2.3	70.0%	24.9%
7	Anthony Nimani	G	So	6'4"	22-0	17.3	5.4	1.6	1.9	1.0	65.5%	52.0%	1.1	84.6%	16.4%
23	DJ Nix	F	Sr	6'6"	27-11	12.3	3.5	1.7	1.1	0.7	53.8%	37.3%	1.9	56.3%	17.4%
4	Gioacchino Panzini	F	So	6'5"	26-0	10.8	3.9	2.0	0.6	0.5	77.6%	50.0%	0.9	57.1%	15.9%
14	Corbin Zentner	G	Sr	5'9"	24-1	11.6	3.3	0.9	0.8	0.3	57.8%	38.6%	2.4	66.7%	14.6%
0	DaMaryon Fishburn	G	Jr	6'5"	21-0	8.6	2.5	2.0	1.5	0.7	83.3%	58.3%	0.6	57.1%	14.2%
10	Mateen Rafiq	G	So	6'0"	18-0	9.3	4.3	1.3	1.5	0.3	66.4%	46.3%	2.3	71.4%	20.2%
2	Ian Imegwu	F	Jr	6'9"	15-0	5.7	4.9	1.3	0.9	0.2	69.2%	48.9%	3.0	50.0%	34.4%
3	Jax Abalos	F	Fr	6'8"	12-0	6.4	2.8	0.4	0.3	0.2	53.6%	27.3%	1.8	80.0%	21.7%
55	AJ LaBeau	F	Jr	6'10"	10-0	4.1	0.7	1.2	1.0	0.5	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	19.3%
12	Ryan Burbach	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	8.2	2.6	1.6	0.2	0.4	31.6%	15.4%	2.6	100.0%	27.3%
11	Ty Iwanonkiw	F	So	6'9"	3-0	7.7	4.0	1.0	0.7	0.0	66.7%	44.4%	3.0	—	19.2%
13	AJ Rodriguez	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Blake Lecklitner	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Elijah Griffin	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UNC Greensboro2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Justin Neely	F	Sr	6'6"	34-34	32.3	17.9	11.5	2.4	2.2	56.5%	31.4%	1.5	78.4%	29.6%
21	KJ Younger	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	28.5	15.1	4.7	1.2	1.2	52.9%	34.1%	5.4	71.1%	29.8%
13	Donald Whitehead Jr.	G	Sr	5'10"	34-20	26.2	10.1	1.6	2.4	1.1	45.7%	30.7%	4.9	69.2%	24.8%
6	Noah Norgaard	G	Fr	6'2"	34-26	25.1	7.7	2.1	1.5	1.2	51.1%	37.2%	3.8	70.0%	19.5%
11	Valentino Pinedo	F	Sr	6'8"	32-28	26.4	7.3	4.9	1.3	1.0	60.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.9%
45	Lilian Marville	G	Fr	6'1"	31-21	26.2	9.5	2.0	2.3	1.3	56.5%	52.2%	3.0	75.0%	20.7%
16	Domas Kauzonas	F	Jr	6'10"	33-6	9.9	2.9	1.6	0.3	0.7	57.5%	—	0.0	42.3%	19.2%
4	Assane Mandian	G	Fr	6'7"	22-0	8.0	2.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	56.4%	37.0%	1.2	100.0%	16.2%
24	Landon King	G	Jr	6'1"	20-1	8.6	2.5	0.9	0.7	0.3	44.4%	32.4%	1.9	42.9%	21.5%
7	Clyde Bailey II	G	Sr	6'1"	13-0	6.7	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.3	52.8%	27.3%	0.8	80.0%	15.6%
0	Antwann Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	7-0	11.4	3.4	2.1	0.4	0.9	47.9%	37.5%	1.1	50.0%	21.8%
8	Chane Bynum	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	4.2	1.7	1.5	0.2	0.2	36.5%	23.1%	1.0	75.0%	29.5%
9	Braylen Bowman	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	3.2	1.6	0.4	1.2	0.0	66.7%	50.0%	0.8	—	18.6%
3	Jordan Brown	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UNC Greensboro

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

5-7

Road

5-8

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +4.9

Covered 5 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

22-10

Home

9-3

Road

10-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.3

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	FurmanAdjEM #163	N	L 75–81	+6.0	P0.0	148.5	O156	114.3	123.4	65.6
Mar 7	WoffordAdjEM #235	N	W 75–72	+5.5	W+8.5	156.5	U147	114.3	109.7	65.6
Mar 6	VMIAdjEM #361	N	W 84–70	−6.5	W+7.5	156.0	U154	124.6	103.8	67.4
Feb 28	SamfordAdjEM #202	A	L 78–87	+9.5	W+0.5	157.0	O165	107.4	119.8	72.6
Feb 26	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	W 85–80	+3.5	W+8.5	157.5	O165	110.8	104.3	76.7
Feb 21	ETSUAdjEM #110	H	L 75–87	+6.0	L−6.0	149.0	O162	112.1	130.1	66.9
Feb 18	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	A	L 77–91	+6.0	L−8.0	155.0	O168	109.3	129.1	70.5
Feb 14	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	W 99–89	+2.0	W+12.0	155.5	O188	141.1	126.8	70.2
Feb 11	VMIAdjEM #361	H	W 92–71	−8.5	W+12.5	151.0	O163	133.0	102.7	69.2
Feb 8	FurmanAdjEM #163	A	W 67–64	+10.5	W+13.5	150.0	U131	106.3	101.5	63.0

Cornell

Against the spread

Season

11-15

Home

2-7

Road

9-7

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-12

Home

4-5

Road

9-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.6

Over 3 straightOver in 2 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	YaleAdjEM #57	N	L 76–88	+3.5	L−8.5	163.5	O164	125.2	144.9	60.7
Mar 7	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 111–90	−4.5	W+16.5	166.0	O201	142.5	115.5	77.9
Feb 28	BrownAdjEM #275	H	W 86–80	−9.5	L−3.5	157.5	O166	119.1	110.7	72.2
Feb 27	YaleAdjEM #57	H	W 72–69	+4.0	W+7.0	164.0	U141	112.1	107.4	64.3
Feb 21	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	L 54–73	−5.5	L−24.5	155.0	U127	89.9	121.5	60.1
Feb 14	PennAdjEM #162	A	L 76–82	−3.0	L−9.0	170.0	U158	99.7	107.6	76.2
Feb 13	PrincetonAdjEM #251	A	W 89–65	−3.5	W+20.5	154.5	U154	140.6	102.7	63.3
Feb 7	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	W 88–67	−1.0	W+20.0	170.5	U155	133.9	101.9	65.7
Jan 31	PennAdjEM #162	H	L 81–91	−7.0	L−17.0	174.5	U172	112.3	126.1	72.1
Jan 30	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 87–64	−7.0	W+16.0	159.5	U151	141.5	104.1	61.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UNC GreensboroCornell

Efficiency

107.8

116.2

115.2

114.3

68.6

70.9

—

Shooting

52.0%

58.5%

51.0%

59.7%

35.6%

38.3%

70.4%

74.1%

42.0%

30.2%

Ball control & glass

15.0%

16.0%

13.7%

15.1%

28.1%

30.2%

29.0%

30.6%

8.7%

9.1%

9.6%

Style

40.2%

51.6%

37.8%

38.9%

11.3%

14.4%

46.9%

66.7%

29.3%

41.9%

Roster

2.57

3.37

6'3.7"

6'3.9"

92.8%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UNC Greensboro

Returning minutes: 92.8%Returning production: 95.0%

Lost

Clinton Efinda 14.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius

Added

Jordan Brown no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Cornell

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.