CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceWinthrop Coliseum, Rock Hill, SC

Jackson St

Efficiency #353

2025-26: 12-21 · 11-9 conf

Winthrop

Efficiency #116

2025-26: 23-11 · 15-4 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · TBD

70.3

win 8%

Projected

86.7

win 92%

No line posted yet.

Model: WIN −16.5 · total 157.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Winthrop 70.0, Jackson St 69.8 → 71.5 possessions

+6.9

Winthrop offense vs Jackson St defense

+7.1

Jackson St offense vs Winthrop defense

−5.2

Projected total

157.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Winthrop offense vs Jackson St defense

+7.1

Jackson St offense vs Winthrop defense

+5.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Winthrop by 16.5

16.5

Jackson St side ◂▸ Winthrop side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +16.4 against +16.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Winthrop.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Winthrop is the faster team (71.7, #29 of 365) and Jackson St the slower (71.0, #51). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

157.0

model

Projected team totals

70.3 / 86.7

Jackson St / Winthrop

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#65

Jackson St

70.0#48

Winthrop

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageJackson St

Where Jackson St struggles: shooting

Jackson St shoots an effective 45.7% (#354); Winthrop allows 51.4% (#182). Expect about 48.1%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Winthrop averages 71.7 possessions per 40, Jackson St 71.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageWinthrop

Where Winthrop scores: the offensive glass

Winthrop rebounds 34.1% of its own misses (#63); Jackson St lets opponents grab 37.2% of their own misses (#359). Expect about 36.3%, 5.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashJackson St

Style match: ball movement

Jackson St creates off the dribble (assists on 45.8% of its baskets); Winthrop breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.0% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 43.3% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversJackson St

Jackson St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Jackson St's offense.

TurnoversWinthrop

Winthrop protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.4% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Winthrop's offense.

Jackson St has the ball

OffenseWinthrop allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #354

51.4% #182

-4.5 pt/100

19.4% #336

16.7% #174

-1.8 pt/100

29.7% #215

27.7% #55

-1.1 pt/100

37.4% #117

39.0% #286

+0.4 pt/100

75.8% #55

—

+0.3 pt/100

Jackson St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.6 pts/100

Winthrop has the ball

OffenseJackson St allowsvs D1 avg

49.7% #250

53.0% #267

-0.0 pt/100

14.7% #50

16.5% #185

+1.7 pt/100

34.1% #63

37.2% #359

+3.6 pt/100

44.0% #10

41.9% #319

+1.0 pt/100

72.9% #171

—

+0.0 pt/100

Winthrop net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Jackson Stoffense vsWinthropdefense

Share of shots by zone

Jackson St shoots

31.3

5.4

20.2

43.1

Winthrop allows

36.2

6.4

14.6

42.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	52.1%#348	59.0%#192	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.0%#121	45.0%#296	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.4%#305	42.6%#321	38.0%
Three	31.4%#311	32.9%#113	33.7%

Winthropoffense vsJackson Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Winthrop shoots

38.8

6.1

11.1

44.0

Jackson St allows

40.9

5.8

13.8

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.7%#282	60.9%#266	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.5%#293	29.3%#12	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.7%#269	31.1%#11	38.0%
Three	33.2%#217	34.8%#236	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Jackson St

−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#350 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#215

Def reb %

62.8%

#359

Turnover %

19.4%

#336

Forced TO %

16.5%

#185

FT rate

37.4%

#117

FT allowed

41.9%

#319

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding−2.1

Ball security−1.8

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−1.7

Winthrop

+4.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#27 of 365

Off reb %

34.1%

#63

Def reb %

72.3%

#55

Turnover %

14.7%

#50

Forced TO %

16.7%

#174

FT rate

44.0%

#10

FT allowed

39.0%

#286

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security+1.4

Forcing turnovers0.0

Foul shots drawn+2.3

Foul shots allowed−1.0

Winthrop has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.9 (#27 of 365) to Jackson St’s −5.4 (#350).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Jackson St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Jayme Mitchell Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	32-31	32.8	14.5	4.9	0.9	2.3	47.3%	33.2%	5.9	78.7%	27.5%
24	Daeshun Ruffin	G	Sr	5'10"	28-28	33.5	23.3	2.8	5.3	3.8	47.2%	30.9%	5.0	84.3%	41.5%
1	Dorian McMillian	G	So	6'3"	28-24	29.5	11.9	4.4	1.4	2.1	47.2%	32.8%	6.2	75.0%	26.4%
4	Devin Ree	F	Sr	6'9"	33-18	20.8	5.4	3.0	0.7	0.9	43.6%	27.6%	3.0	88.2%	17.9%
0	Tamarion Hoover	G	So	6'4"	30-4	19.8	5.9	3.1	0.3	0.5	52.4%	34.7%	3.9	87.5%	16.6%
12	Delyle Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	31-5	17.2	2.9	2.4	1.3	1.2	33.5%	25.6%	1.4	60.0%	16.3%
20	Raevon Thomas	F	Sr	6'9"	25-15	17.6	3.3	3.3	0.3	0.8	59.5%	38.9%	0.7	56.0%	11.7%
8	Dionjahe Thomas	F	Jr	6'8"	23-19	18.4	5.1	5.3	0.4	1.2	48.3%	33.3%	0.1	56.4%	19.0%
2	Jalen Tatum	G	Jr	6'4"	11-6	26.5	7.7	2.6	1.8	1.6	39.8%	41.7%	1.1	63.0%	21.0%
21	Kobe Butler	F	Fr	6'7"	27-4	10.4	1.8	1.8	0.1	0.4	39.6%	0.0%	0.1	83.3%	12.8%
10	Ebo Wilson	C	So	6'10"	18-7	10.8	0.7	2.1	0.2	0.7	28.6%	—	0.0	0.0%	10.3%
11	Mike Williams	G	Fr	6'2"	8-3	19.9	5.5	2.3	0.8	2.0	28.4%	15.0%	2.5	83.3%	26.6%
9	Deyan Kolev	F	Fr	6'9"	17-1	7.5	0.9	1.0	0.1	0.4	33.3%	18.2%	0.6	50.0%	12.8%
7	Kedrick Simmons	F	Fr	6'6"	8-0	11.0	1.6	1.8	0.5	0.5	40.0%	25.0%	1.0	50.0%	12.5%
13	Cael Jones	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	3.0	1.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.2	0.0%	19.5%
5	Keiveon Hunt	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Winthrop2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Kody Clouet	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	29.0	13.8	4.9	1.4	0.9	59.6%	40.9%	6.6	83.5%	22.5%
2	Kareem Rozier	G	Sr	5'9"	33-33	29.6	13.2	2.3	3.3	1.0	49.3%	36.4%	7.5	78.1%	25.7%
7	Daylen Berry	G	Sr	6'4"	28-22	24.5	10.5	3.5	1.9	1.3	49.1%	34.4%	4.4	70.8%	25.3%
1	Isaiah Wilson	G	Sr	6'1"	34-31	19.8	3.7	1.4	2.6	1.4	35.3%	17.6%	1.5	63.0%	16.7%
3	Josh Meo	G	Sr	6'4"	34-0	18.3	5.5	2.5	1.0	0.7	42.7%	30.1%	2.4	68.1%	19.7%
15	Tommy Kamarad	F	Sr	6'8"	33-14	18.0	7.1	3.6	1.0	1.0	55.0%	35.1%	2.2	83.9%	21.4%
25	Seifeldin Hendawy	G	So	6'8"	34-2	16.5	5.7	4.2	1.1	1.0	39.6%	20.0%	1.9	78.5%	23.8%
23	Ed Nnamoko	F	Sr	6'10"	34-6	11.1	4.0	3.1	0.2	0.9	54.0%	0.0%	0.0	65.2%	21.5%
4	Pharrell Boyogueno	G	Sr	6'6"	28-0	11.4	3.2	2.1	0.3	0.3	51.3%	33.3%	2.1	45.5%	16.9%
21	Tai Hamilton	F	Jr	6'10"	21-0	7.8	2.5	3.0	0.3	0.7	60.6%	—	0.0	54.5%	19.3%
5	Braylhan Thomas	G	So	6'6"	7-0	7.4	4.1	1.4	0.6	0.3	44.4%	22.2%	1.3	83.3%	32.5%
8	Cam Christy	G	Sr	6'4"	7-0	3.0	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.1	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	0.0%	19.9%
22	Henry Harrison	G	Jr	5'11"	6-0	2.7	0.8	0.0	0.2	0.5	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	26.1%
0	Kaleb Evans	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Jackson St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Jayme Mitchell Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	32-31	32.8	14.5	4.9	0.9	2.3	47.3%	33.2%	5.9	78.7%	27.5%
24	Daeshun Ruffin	G	Sr	5'10"	28-28	33.5	23.3	2.8	5.3	3.8	47.2%	30.9%	5.0	84.3%	41.5%
1	Dorian McMillian	G	So	6'3"	28-24	29.5	11.9	4.4	1.4	2.1	47.2%	32.8%	6.2	75.0%	26.4%
4	Devin Ree	F	Sr	6'9"	33-18	20.8	5.4	3.0	0.7	0.9	43.6%	27.6%	3.0	88.2%	17.9%
0	Tamarion Hoover	G	So	6'4"	30-4	19.8	5.9	3.1	0.3	0.5	52.4%	34.7%	3.9	87.5%	16.6%
12	Delyle Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	31-5	17.2	2.9	2.4	1.3	1.2	33.5%	25.6%	1.4	60.0%	16.3%
20	Raevon Thomas	F	Sr	6'9"	25-15	17.6	3.3	3.3	0.3	0.8	59.5%	38.9%	0.7	56.0%	11.7%
8	Dionjahe Thomas	F	Jr	6'8"	23-19	18.4	5.1	5.3	0.4	1.2	48.3%	33.3%	0.1	56.4%	19.0%
2	Jalen Tatum	G	Jr	6'4"	11-6	26.5	7.7	2.6	1.8	1.6	39.8%	41.7%	1.1	63.0%	21.0%
21	Kobe Butler	F	Fr	6'7"	27-4	10.4	1.8	1.8	0.1	0.4	39.6%	0.0%	0.1	83.3%	12.8%
10	Ebo Wilson	C	So	6'10"	18-7	10.8	0.7	2.1	0.2	0.7	28.6%	—	0.0	0.0%	10.3%
11	Mike Williams	G	Fr	6'2"	8-3	19.9	5.5	2.3	0.8	2.0	28.4%	15.0%	2.5	83.3%	26.6%
9	Deyan Kolev	F	Fr	6'9"	17-1	7.5	0.9	1.0	0.1	0.4	33.3%	18.2%	0.6	50.0%	12.8%
7	Kedrick Simmons	F	Fr	6'6"	8-0	11.0	1.6	1.8	0.5	0.5	40.0%	25.0%	1.0	50.0%	12.5%
13	Cael Jones	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	3.0	1.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.2	0.0%	19.5%
5	Keiveon Hunt	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Jackson St

Against the spread

Season

12-20-1

Home

6-3-1

Road

5-14

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-16-1

Home

6-3-1

Road

8-11

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total +0.2

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	N	L 60–70	+6.5	L−3.5	142.5	U130	85.7	100.0	70.0
Mar 10	GramblingAdjEM #290	N	W 68–65	+7.0	W+10.0	140.5	U133	99.1	94.7	68.6
Mar 5	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	H	W 85–77	−11.5	L−3.5	145.0	O162	128.8	116.7	66.0
Mar 3	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	H	W 81–78	+1.0	W+4.0	153.0	O159	116.8	112.5	69.3
Feb 28	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	L 57–82	+6.0	L−19.0	152.0	U139	80.3	115.5	71.0
Feb 26	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	A	L 76–85 OT	+4.5	L−4.5	161.5	U161	102.1	114.2	74.4
Feb 21	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	A	L 65–83	+1.0	L−17.0	149.0	U148	90.7	115.8	71.7
Feb 16	BethuneAdjEM #260	H	W 91–86	+5.0	W+10.0	150.0	O177	118.0	111.5	77.2
Feb 14	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	H	W 80–60	+2.0	W+22.0	144.0	U140	115.2	86.4	69.4
Feb 9	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	A	L 63–84	+6.5	L−14.5	156.5	U147	96.1	128.1	65.5

Winthrop

Against the spread

Season

11-19

Home

4-7

Road

7-9

Last 10

1-9

avg cover −3.9

Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 0 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

16-14

Home

7-4

Road

7-9

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.9

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	High PointAdjEM #50	N	L 76–91	+7.0	L−8.0	157.5	O167	96.9	116.0	78.5
Mar 7	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	N	W 73–71	−6.5	L−4.5	145.0	U144	106.4	103.4	68.6
Mar 6	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	N	W 86–81	−5.5	L−0.5	163.5	O167	111.2	104.8	77.3
Feb 28	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	W 74–70	−9.0	L−5.0	150.5	U144	105.3	99.6	70.3
Feb 26	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	A	L 84–86	−8.0	L−10.0	164.0	O170	104.9	107.4	80.1
Feb 21	High PointAdjEM #50	A	L 87–89	+9.5	W+7.5	166.5	O176	117.8	120.5	73.9
Feb 19	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	H	W 68–64	−13.0	L−9.0	155.0	U132	101.2	95.3	67.2
Feb 12	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	A	W 103–85	−20.5	L−2.5	155.0	O188	134.4	110.9	76.7
Feb 7	LongwoodAdjEM #248	H	W 79–74	−10.0	L−5.0	152.5	O153	102.2	95.7	77.3
Feb 4	RadfordAdjEM #245	A	W 80–78	−4.0	L−2.0	160.5	U158	111.8	109.1	71.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Jackson StWinthrop

Efficiency

101.0

111.3

115.6

108.6

69.8

70.0

—

Shooting

45.7%

49.7%

44.6%

49.7%

31.4%

33.2%

75.8%

72.9%

37.4%

44.0%

Ball control & glass

19.4%

14.7%

16.5%

16.7%

29.7%

34.1%

37.2%

27.7%

11.1%

7.6%

12.4%

11.2%

Style

43.3%

44.1%

34.3%

39.8%

15.2%

12.2%

45.8%

51.6%

32.0%

36.7%

Roster

2.87

3.77

6'4.6"

6'4.1"

—

88.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Jackson St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Jackson St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Winthrop

Returning minutes: 88.6%Returning production: 77.3%

Lost

Logan Duncomb 22.9 mpg, 17.2 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame

Added

Kaleb Evans no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 89% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Nov 23	2025-26	Winthrop 80 – 62 Jackson St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.