CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe Sobrato Center, San Francisco, CA
Portland St
Efficiency #145
2025-26: 20-11 · 14-6 conf
@
San Francisco
Efficiency #148
2025-26: 17-16 · 9-11 conf
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
69.9
win 37%
Projected
73.7
win 63%
No line posted yet.
Model: SF −3.8 · total 143.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: San Francisco 67.4, Portland St 68.6 → 67.7 possessions
−1.4
San Francisco offense vs Portland St defense
−1.7
Portland St offense vs San Francisco defense
−1.6
Projected total
143.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
San Francisco offense vs Portland St defense
−1.7
Portland St offense vs San Francisco defense
+1.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
San Francisco by 3.8
3.8
Portland St side ◂▸ San Francisco side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.5 against a projected 143.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help San Francisco.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Portland St is the faster team (69.0, #147 of 365) and San Francisco the slower (66.7, #256). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.6
model
Projected team totals
69.9 / 73.7
Portland St / San Francisco
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#157
Portland St
67.4#261
San Francisco

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantagePortland St
Where Portland St scores: ball control
Portland St turns it over on 16.9% of possessions (#200); San Francisco forces turnovers on 14.1% of opponent possessions (#330). Expect about 15.2%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashPortland St
Style match: 3-point volume
Portland St rarely shoots threes (34.4% of its shots); San Francisco runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.0% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageSan Francisco
Where San Francisco struggles: shooting
San Francisco shoots an effective 51.2% (#184); Portland St allows 48.8% (#56). Expect about 50.0%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions.
Portland St has the ball
OffenseSan Francisco allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #211
50.8% #143
-1.0 pt/100
16.9% #200
14.1% #330
+2.0 pt/100
30.0% #199
29.0% #105
-0.6 pt/100
37.1% #126
29.6% #51
-0.3 pt/100
71.0% #238
—
-0.1 pt/100
Portland St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.0 pts/100
San Francisco has the ball
OffensePortland St allowsvs D1 avg
51.2% #184
48.8% #56
-1.8 pt/100
15.8% #125
18.0% #95
-0.3 pt/100
31.3% #148
26.4% #23
-0.8 pt/100
40.1% #59
42.8% #337
+0.9 pt/100
70.9% #242
—
-0.1 pt/100
San Francisco net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Portland Stoffense vsSan Franciscodefense
Share of shots by zone
Portland St shoots
San Francisco allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.0%#23959.3%#20558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.5%#25745.5%#31239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.7%#24435.0%#7838.0%
Three32.6%#25034.1%#18733.7%
San Franciscooffense vsPortland Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
San Francisco shoots
Portland St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22955.3%#6958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.5%#13239.4%#16939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.4%#27836.2%#11838.0%
Three34.6%#14032.3%#7733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Portland St
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#153 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#199
Def reb %
73.6%
#23
Turnover %
16.9%
#200
Forced TO %
18.0%
#95
FT rate
37.1%
#126
FT allowed
42.8%
#337
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−1.9
San Francisco
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#78 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#148
Def reb %
71.0%
#105
Turnover %
15.8%
#125
Forced TO %
14.1%
#330
FT rate
40.1%
#59
FT allowed
29.6%
#51
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed+1.5

San Francisco has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#78 of 365) to Portland St’s +0.6 (#153).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Portland St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Portland St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Jaylin HendersonGSr6'3"31-3137.318.24.15.82.945.9%26.6%4.078.7%31.6%
23Terri Miller Jr.FSr6'8"30-3031.519.15.63.42.856.6%38.8%4.669.9%35.1%
4Tre-Vaughn MinottCSr6'10"31-3128.69.98.80.31.165.6%—0.061.4%17.4%
0Keyon Kensie Jr.GJr6'8"29-2930.310.96.91.11.346.8%28.7%2.872.4%22.9%
1Kelcy PhippsGSo6'2"31-417.64.71.71.00.859.5%43.1%1.947.7%16.0%
15Alex DupreGFr6'5"30-2615.43.21.60.60.437.5%29.4%1.783.9%14.7%
21Isaiah WilliamsGSr6'7"24-314.43.61.50.30.547.1%24.4%1.775.0%15.9%
6Sebastian TidorGJr6'5"27-012.84.51.50.60.449.1%34.2%2.970.0%20.8%
3Brycen LongGSr6'2"27-010.43.00.70.60.752.6%37.3%1.983.3%17.8%
2Mozae Downing-RiversGSr6'6"19-05.51.10.11.10.550.0%0.0%0.1100.0%15.3%
7Charles ChukwuFJr6'9"21-04.31.40.80.00.183.3%—0.00.0%13.0%
32Brayden BarronFFr6'6"18-04.71.01.50.10.352.9%—0.00.0%16.0%
10Colt NessGFr6'0"10-15.60.80.71.10.630.8%0.0%0.4—17.7%
12Samuel Stewart IVGSr6'4"11-04.00.80.50.40.034.6%12.5%0.7—15.7%
13Kean WebbFSo6'11"4-06.30.81.00.00.050.0%—0.014.3%11.8%
9Isaac BriceFSr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
35Matt BeattyCFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Portland StSan Francisco
Efficiency
105.4
110.5
104.1
109.2
68.6
67.4
—
—
Shooting
50.6%
51.2%
51.5%
50.7%
32.6%
34.6%
71.0%
70.9%
37.1%
40.1%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
15.8%
18.0%
14.1%
30.0%
31.3%
26.4%
29.0%
9.5%
9.2%
7.4%
8.7%
Style
34.4%
46.1%
48.2%
36.9%
12.5%
10.1%
51.2%
55.6%
28.6%
34.2%
Roster
3.32
2.61
6'6"
6'4.8"
—
81.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Portland St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Portland St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

San Francisco
Returning minutes: 81.0%Returning production: 76.4%
Lost
  • David Fuchs 21.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Clemson
  • Guillermo Diaz Graham 17.2 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Ndewedo Newbury no D1 minutes last season
  • Isa Silva no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 81% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Nov 122025-26Portland St 70 – 80 San Francisco

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.