CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferencePete Mathews Coliseum, Jacksonville, AL
UAB
Efficiency #111
2025-26: 20-12 · 11-8 conf
@
Jax State
Efficiency #215
2025-26: 15-17 · 10-11 conf
Sat, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ET
71.9
win 47%
Projected
72.6
win 53%
No line posted yet.
Model: JXST −0.8 · total 144.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Jax State 66.8, UAB 69.6 → 68.1 possessions
−0.4
Jax State offense vs UAB defense
−3.2
UAB offense vs Jax State defense
−0.1
Projected total
144.5
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Jax State offense vs UAB defense
−3.2
UAB offense vs Jax State defense
+0.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Jax State by 0.8
0.8
UAB side ◂▸ Jax State side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Jax State.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UAB is the faster team (70.4, #78 of 365) and Jax State the slower (65.7, #306). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.5
model
Projected team totals
71.9 / 72.6
UAB / Jax State
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.6#77
UAB
66.8#300
Jax State
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageUAB
Where UAB struggles: shooting
UAB shoots an effective 48.4% (#305); Jax State allows 49.6% (#85). Expect about 48.7%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversUAB
UAB protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.0% is worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions for UAB's offense.
AdvantageJax State
Where Jax State struggles: shooting
Jax State shoots an effective 49.7% (#253); UAB allows 50.0% (#98). Expect about 49.7%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (UAB) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UAB at about 34.5% of its shots from three, Jax State about 38.2%.
ClashUAB
Style clash: 3-point volume
UAB rarely shoots threes (30.5% of its shots); Jax State lets opponents take 42.9% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 34.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashUAB
Style clash: paint scoring
UAB scores 50.7% of its points in the paint; Jax State protects the paint (38.7% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 43.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
UAB has the ball
OffenseJax State allowsvs D1 avg
48.4% #305
49.6% #85
-3.6 pt/100
12.5% #2
16.2% #207
+3.4 pt/100
32.5% #104
28.0% #67
+0.2 pt/100
36.4% #141
38.7% #278
+0.4 pt/100
70.6% #251
—
-0.2 pt/100
UAB net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.2 pts/100
Jax State has the ball
OffenseUAB allowsvs D1 avg
49.7% #253
50.0% #98
-2.2 pt/100
17.0% #205
16.1% #215
+0.3 pt/100
29.8% #208
27.7% #53
-1.1 pt/100
43.1% #21
28.7% #38
+0.0 pt/100
68.4% #314
—
-0.3 pt/100
Jax State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersUABoffense vsJax Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
UAB shoots
45.0
7.3
17.6
30.1
Jax State allows
38.4
5.4
13.5
42.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.8%#101 | 55.4%#74 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.3%#347 | 44.0%#268 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.2%#282 | 34.1%#53 | 38.0% |
| Three | 27.8%#364 | 33.3%#141 | 33.7% |
Jax Stateoffense vsUABdefense
Share of shots by zone
Jax State shoots
45.6
6.1
10.3
38.0
UAB allows
37.4
7.5
16.3
38.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 52.0%#349 | 58.6%#171 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.9%#150 | 37.9%#133 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 29.5%#357 | 35.5%#92 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.7%#76 | 32.6%#95 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUAB
+6.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#11 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#104
Def reb %
72.3%
#53
Turnover %
12.5%
#2
Forced TO %
16.1%
#215
FT rate
36.4%
#141
FT allowed
28.7%
#38
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+2.9
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.4
Foul shots allowed+1.7
Jax State
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#125 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#208
Def reb %
72.0%
#67
Turnover %
17.0%
#205
Forced TO %
16.2%
#207
FT rate
43.1%
#21
FT allowed
38.7%
#278
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+2.1
Foul shots allowed−0.9
UAB has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.2 (#11 of 365) to Jax State’s +1.4 (#125).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
UAB2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UAB's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Chance Westry | G | So | 6'6" | 32-27 | 30.5 | 15.5 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 51.7% | 24.1% | 2.7 | 70.8% | 29.1% | |
| 23 | Daniel Rivera | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-31 | 29.3 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 54.9% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 58.1% | 23.2% | |
| 15 | Evan Chatman | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-29 | 28.9 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 48.4% | 27.5% | 2.5 | 68.6% | 17.5% | |
| 12 | Jacob Meyer | G | Jr | 6'2" | 28-25 | 28.5 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 45.9% | 31.4% | 3.6 | 80.3% | 27.0% | |
| 2 | KyeRon Lindsay-Martin | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-4 | 22.6 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 53.8% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 75.9% | 25.5% | |
| 5 | Salim London | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-12 | 19.6 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 41.0% | 29.5% | 1.9 | 84.4% | 17.0% | |
| 4 | Ahmad Robinson | G | Sr | 5'10" | 26-18 | 24.1 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 45.1% | 33.3% | 3.9 | 71.2% | 25.4% | |
| 0 | Dayjaun Anderson | G | So | 6'2" | 30-11 | 16.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 42.9% | 24.1% | 4.4 | 52.9% | 23.5% | |
| 8 | Quaran McPherson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 27-3 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 51.2% | 30.0% | 1.5 | 77.5% | 24.8% | |
| 7 | Ari Gooch | G | So | 6'2" | 17-0 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 37.5% | 15.4% | 0.8 | 68.4% | 18.4% | |
| 6 | Lance Carr | F | Fr | 6'7" | 7-0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 9.2% | |
| 3 | Joao Das Chagas | C | Jr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.0% | |
| 9 | Joey Kahn | G | Sr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 23.4% | |
| 21 | Jorden Pittman | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Justin Holloway | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Jax State2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Jax State's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jacoby Hill | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-30 | 30.5 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 56.4% | 35.5% | 1.9 | 70.9% | 19.4% | |
| 23 | Mostapha El Moutaouakkil | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-30 | 29.9 | 19.5 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 49.4% | 34.6% | 3.3 | 65.7% | 42.3% | |
| 0 | AC Bryant | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-27 | 27.7 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 54.3% | 39.1% | 7.3 | 68.5% | 24.4% | |
| 3 | Jaye Nash | G | So | 6'3" | 32-15 | 25.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 34.3% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 69.2% | 17.6% | |
| 13 | Emondrek Erkins-Ford | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-8 | 21.5 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 55.1% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 64.5% | 22.8% | |
| 99 | Iaroslav Niagu | F | Jr | 7'0" | 29-17 | 20.8 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 48.9% | — | 0.0 | 74.5% | 14.5% | |
| 1 | Marcus Fitzgerald Jr. | G | Sr | 6'2" | 29-13 | 18.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 50.8% | 34.9% | 2.9 | 80.8% | 17.8% | |
| 11 | Jamar Franklin | G | Sr | 6'3" | 26-11 | 16.2 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.8% | 37.3% | 4.5 | 57.1% | 22.3% | |
| 7 | Toby Nnadozie | G | Sr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 35.1% | 18.2% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 19.8% | |
| 21 | Aitor Anabitarte | F | Sr | 6'8" | 17-7 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 64.7% | — | 0.0 | 85.7% | 12.6% | |
| 5 | Bencao Vungo | G | Jr | 6'6" | 8-2 | 13.3 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 51.9% | 22.2% | 1.1 | 66.7% | 19.2% | |
| 42 | Thomas Tut | F | Sr | 6'10" | 14-0 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 52.3% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 80.0% | 18.9% | |
| 14 | Connor Loy | G | Fr | 5'11" | 7-0 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 0.4 | — | 11.6% | |
| 55 | Aidan Driggers | F | Sr | 6'6" | 5-0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 15.7% | |
| 8 | Jordan Vick | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
UAB2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UAB's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Chance Westry | G | So | 6'6" | 32-27 | 30.5 | 15.5 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 51.7% | 24.1% | 2.7 | 70.8% | 29.1% | |
| 23 | Daniel Rivera | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-31 | 29.3 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 54.9% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 58.1% | 23.2% | |
| 15 | Evan Chatman | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-29 | 28.9 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 48.4% | 27.5% | 2.5 | 68.6% | 17.5% | |
| 12 | Jacob Meyer | G | Jr | 6'2" | 28-25 | 28.5 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 45.9% | 31.4% | 3.6 | 80.3% | 27.0% | |
| 2 | KyeRon Lindsay-Martin | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-4 | 22.6 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 53.8% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 75.9% | 25.5% | |
| 5 | Salim London | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-12 | 19.6 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 41.0% | 29.5% | 1.9 | 84.4% | 17.0% | |
| 4 | Ahmad Robinson | G | Sr | 5'10" | 26-18 | 24.1 | 9.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 45.1% | 33.3% | 3.9 | 71.2% | 25.4% | |
| 0 | Dayjaun Anderson | G | So | 6'2" | 30-11 | 16.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 42.9% | 24.1% | 4.4 | 52.9% | 23.5% | |
| 8 | Quaran McPherson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 27-3 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 51.2% | 30.0% | 1.5 | 77.5% | 24.8% | |
| 7 | Ari Gooch | G | So | 6'2" | 17-0 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 37.5% | 15.4% | 0.8 | 68.4% | 18.4% | |
| 6 | Lance Carr | F | Fr | 6'7" | 7-0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 9.2% | |
| 3 | Joao Das Chagas | C | Jr | 6'10" | 2-0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.0% | |
| 9 | Joey Kahn | G | Sr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 23.4% | |
| 21 | Jorden Pittman | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Justin Holloway | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26UAB
Against the spread
Season
15-16
Home
5-11
Road
8-4
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −0.2
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
13-18
Home
7-9
Road
5-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −6.2
Over 3 straightOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Charlotte | N | L 78–83 | −5.5 | L−10.5 | 148.0 | O161 | 117.2 | 124.7 | 66.6 |
| Mar 8 | East Carolina | H | W 90–83 | −10.0 | L−3.0 | 150.5 | O173 | 118.1 | 108.9 | 76.2 |
| Mar 4 | Charlotte | A | W 80–74 | −2.0 | W+4.0 | 148.0 | O154 | 125.4 | 116.0 | 63.8 |
| Mar 1 | North Texas | H | L 58–62 | −5.0 | L−9.0 | 141.5 | U120 | 90.4 | 96.7 | 64.1 |
| Feb 22 | Memphis | A | W 78–67 | +6.0 | W+17.0 | 152.0 | U145 | 108.7 | 93.4 | 71.8 |
| Feb 18 | Temple | A | W 76–71 | +1.5 | W+6.5 | 143.5 | O147 | 115.1 | 107.5 | 66.0 |
| Feb 15 | Tulane | H | L 54–55 | −7.0 | L−8.0 | 152.5 | U109 | 86.1 | 87.7 | 62.7 |
| Feb 11 | Tulsa | A | W 68–63 | +10.5 | W+15.5 | 161.0 | U131 | 101.9 | 94.4 | 66.7 |
| Feb 8 | Rice | H | W 71–65 | −9.5 | L−3.5 | 154.5 | U136 | 107.0 | 97.9 | 66.4 |
| Feb 5 | Memphis | H | L 80–90 | −1.5 | L−11.5 | 156.0 | O170 | 100.3 | 112.8 | 79.8 |
Jax State
Against the spread
Season
13-15-1
Home
6-8
Road
7-5-1
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-12
Home
7-7
Road
10-3
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.5
Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | New Mexico St | N | L 63–68 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 142.0 | U131 | 98.1 | 105.9 | 64.2 |
| Mar 7 | UTEP | A | W 64–61 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 139.0 | U125 | 95.6 | 91.1 | 67.0 |
| Mar 5 | New Mexico St | A | L 75–77 OT | +6.0 | W+4.0 | 145.5 | O152 | 98.8 | 101.5 | 75.9 |
| Feb 28 | Liberty | H | L 78–81 | +4.0 | W+1.0 | 139.0 | O159 | 122.8 | 127.5 | 63.5 |
| Feb 26 | Delaware | H | W 80–70 OT | −7.5 | W+2.5 | 134.0 | O150 | 119.8 | 104.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 21 | Sam Houston | A | L 78–82 | +7.5 | W+3.5 | 148.5 | O160 | 115.7 | 121.6 | 67.4 |
| Feb 18 | Louisiana Tech | A | L 71–77 | +2.0 | L−4.0 | 133.0 | O148 | 101.1 | 109.6 | 70.2 |
| Feb 14 | New Mexico St | H | L 70–79 | −2.5 | L−11.5 | 140.5 | O149 | 106.3 | 119.9 | 65.9 |
| Feb 11 | UTEP | H | L 64–69 | −6.5 | L−11.5 | 135.5 | U133 | 107.0 | 115.3 | 59.8 |
| Feb 7 | Kennesaw St | H | W 77–58 | +1.5 | W+20.5 | 150.0 | U135 | 116.3 | 87.6 | 66.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUABJax State
Efficiency
109.0
106.0
106.2
107.8
69.6
66.8
—
—
Shooting
48.4%
49.7%
51.3%
47.4%
27.8%
35.7%
70.6%
68.4%
36.4%
43.1%
Ball control & glass
12.5%
17.0%
16.1%
16.2%
32.5%
29.8%
27.7%
28.0%
8.1%
9.0%
9.7%
9.7%
Style
30.5%
38.1%
50.7%
42.3%
19.6%
12.3%
50.3%
49.6%
29.9%
35.3%
Roster
2.89
3.06
6'4.7"
6'5.2"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUAB
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UAB's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Jax State
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Jax State's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.