CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceJohn W. Pope Jr. Convocation Center, Buies Creek, NC

SC Upstate

Efficiency #284

2025-26: 13-19 · 5-12 conf

Campbell

Efficiency #208

2025-26: 16-18 · 10-11 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · TBD

71.7

win 26%

Projected

79.0

win 74%

No line posted yet.

Model: CAM −7.3 · total 150.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Campbell 69.9, SC Upstate 68.5 → 70.1 possessions

+3.8

Campbell offense vs SC Upstate defense

+1.0

SC Upstate offense vs Campbell defense

−2.3

Projected total

150.7

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Campbell offense vs SC Upstate defense

+1.0

SC Upstate offense vs Campbell defense

+2.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Campbell by 7.3

7.3

SC Upstate side ◂▸ Campbell side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Campbell.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Campbell is the faster team (70.0, #93 of 365) and SC Upstate the slower (69.3, #128). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.7

model

Projected team totals

71.7 / 79.0

SC Upstate / Campbell

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.5#171

SC Upstate

69.9#53

Campbell

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashCampbell

Style match: ball movement

Campbell creates off the dribble (assists on 44.9% of its baskets); SC Upstate breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.5% — both habits push the same way.

ClashSC Upstate

Style match: 3-point volume

SC Upstate rarely shoots threes (35.6% of its shots); Campbell runs teams off the line (29.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.3% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseSC Upstate

SC Upstate's shot-blocking

SC Upstate ranks #39 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.9% of Campbell's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageCampbell

Where Campbell scores: the offensive glass

Campbell rebounds 33.5% of its own misses (#77); SC Upstate lets opponents grab 31.4% of their own misses (#224). Expect about 33.0%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSC Upstate

Style match: paint scoring

SC Upstate scores 46.2% of its points in the paint; Campbell gives up 50.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.4% — both habits push the same way.

SC Upstate has the ball

OffenseCampbell allowsvs D1 avg

48.3% #307

53.9% #295

-0.5 pt/100

18.2% #283

17.0% #157

-1.2 pt/100

29.2% #231

32.0% #254

-0.1 pt/100

32.8% #239

37.0% #238

+0.0 pt/100

68.1% #324

—

-0.4 pt/100

SC Upstate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.1 pts/100

Campbell has the ball

OffenseSC Upstate allowsvs D1 avg

50.1% #230

51.0% #156

-1.2 pt/100

17.6% #241

16.4% #194

-0.3 pt/100

33.5% #77

31.4% #224

+1.6 pt/100

43.5% #16

36.0% #211

+0.6 pt/100

72.5% #190

—

+0.0 pt/100

Campbell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

SC Upstateoffense vsCampbelldefense

Share of shots by zone

SC Upstate shoots

41.2

7.8

15.6

35.4

Campbell allows

45.0

9.9

15.5

29.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.8%#303	63.2%#327	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#136	33.7%#40	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.5%#202	35.5%#89	38.0%
Three	31.4%#308	35.5%#277	33.7%

Campbelloffense vsSC Upstatedefense

Share of shots by zone

Campbell shoots

45.5

9.5

8.5

36.5

SC Upstate allows

42.0

6.0

15.7

36.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.3%#218	54.7%#56	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.1%#329	45.5%#309	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.0%#292	35.7%#96	38.0%
Three	32.3%#267	35.6%#289	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

SC Upstate

−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#289 of 365

Off reb %

29.2%

#231

Def reb %

68.6%

#224

Turnover %

18.2%

#283

Forced TO %

16.4%

#194

FT rate

32.8%

#239

FT allowed

36.0%

#211

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Campbell

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#105 of 365

Off reb %

33.5%

#77

Def reb %

68.0%

#254

Turnover %

17.6%

#241

Forced TO %

17.0%

#157

FT rate

43.5%

#16

FT allowed

37.0%

#238

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.0

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn+2.2

Foul shots allowed−0.5

Campbell has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#105 of 365) to SC Upstate’s −2.6 (#289).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SC Upstate2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Carmelo Adkins	G	So	6'4"	32-15	29.9	13.5	4.9	1.6	2.0	47.2%	33.0%	5.9	80.7%	28.5%
1	Karmani Gregory	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	30.5	15.6	2.2	2.9	2.2	49.0%	32.8%	5.9	74.6%	31.8%
9	Mason Bendinger	G	Jr	6'4"	32-31	29.4	14.4	3.7	1.2	1.8	47.0%	31.1%	2.3	53.8%	32.3%
0	Tyler Smith	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.9	4.4	2.7	2.8	1.9	40.9%	29.8%	1.5	67.6%	17.1%
2	Isaiah Skinner	G	Sr	6'5"	32-8	20.0	5.1	3.1	1.8	1.0	51.8%	34.9%	3.3	85.7%	16.2%
11	Learic Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	28-20	21.8	8.3	4.6	0.8	1.3	55.6%	32.8%	2.4	75.0%	21.9%
12	Jafeth Martinez	F	Jr	6'9"	31-20	18.3	4.6	5.1	0.2	0.7	67.6%	—	0.0	65.6%	12.6%
7	Coen Collier	C	Jr	7'1"	30-9	14.1	1.8	3.8	0.6	0.5	43.1%	22.2%	0.3	37.5%	10.3%
10	Breylin Garcia	F	Sr	6'6"	21-7	14.8	6.7	4.5	0.9	1.0	60.6%	—	0.0	55.6%	25.4%
6	Kanye Jones	G	Jr	6'5"	22-1	8.9	2.7	0.3	0.4	0.2	50.0%	26.3%	0.9	81.3%	16.7%
24	Chico Johnson	G	So	6'2"	10-0	8.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.3	47.7%	42.9%	0.7	50.0%	18.4%
8	Nic Book	F	So	6'8"	7-2	10.3	4.6	3.1	0.4	0.3	81.3%	—	0.0	100.0%	15.8%
21	CJ Rich	G	Jr	5'9"	4-1	11.0	3.3	1.0	1.3	0.8	78.6%	75.0%	1.0	66.7%	13.8%
5	TJ Lewis	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Campbell2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
9	DJ Smith	G	Sr	5'11"	34-33	34.4	19.0	3.5	2.1	1.9	49.1%	33.9%	8.5	83.6%	31.0%
7	Cam Gregory	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	33.4	8.0	3.1	2.3	1.2	52.9%	33.1%	3.7	76.5%	14.3%
2	Jeremiah Johnson	G	So	6'4"	34-31	32.4	15.2	3.5	1.9	2.1	51.9%	37.4%	3.9	86.5%	26.3%
13	Dovydas Butka	F	So	6'9"	31-31	33.9	13.9	8.5	2.6	2.4	51.0%	16.7%	1.0	55.3%	26.2%
1	Tasos Cook	G	Sr	6'2"	33-8	24.7	7.2	2.0	1.2	0.8	50.3%	35.8%	3.3	79.2%	17.0%
11	Muneer Newton	F	Sr	6'5"	34-27	19.5	6.7	4.9	0.8	1.1	70.7%	0.0%	0.0	48.4%	17.6%
0	Chris Fields Jr.	F	Jr	6'7"	27-5	18.6	9.7	6.9	1.6	2.0	46.6%	7.7%	0.5	64.6%	34.2%
22	Dominykas Butka	G	Fr	6'6"	22-0	7.2	1.9	1.4	0.4	0.5	50.0%	22.2%	0.4	62.5%	17.5%
5	Enoch Kalambay	G	Sr	6'6"	10-0	8.8	2.0	2.4	0.5	0.8	37.0%	12.5%	1.6	—	22.4%
4	Broc Bidwell	G	Sr	6'0"	11-0	5.5	2.2	0.4	0.4	0.4	61.1%	42.9%	1.3	50.0%	20.3%
15	Terren Frank	F	Sr	6'8"	6-1	8.3	1.7	0.8	0.5	0.5	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	66.7%	18.2%
32	Daniel Marcellinus	F	Fr	6'11"	2-0	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.5	—	—	0.0	—	9.8%
12	Israel Yaw	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Klairus Amir	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SC Upstate2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Carmelo Adkins	G	So	6'4"	32-15	29.9	13.5	4.9	1.6	2.0	47.2%	33.0%	5.9	80.7%	28.5%
1	Karmani Gregory	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	30.5	15.6	2.2	2.9	2.2	49.0%	32.8%	5.9	74.6%	31.8%
9	Mason Bendinger	G	Jr	6'4"	32-31	29.4	14.4	3.7	1.2	1.8	47.0%	31.1%	2.3	53.8%	32.3%
0	Tyler Smith	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.9	4.4	2.7	2.8	1.9	40.9%	29.8%	1.5	67.6%	17.1%
2	Isaiah Skinner	G	Sr	6'5"	32-8	20.0	5.1	3.1	1.8	1.0	51.8%	34.9%	3.3	85.7%	16.2%
11	Learic Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	28-20	21.8	8.3	4.6	0.8	1.3	55.6%	32.8%	2.4	75.0%	21.9%
12	Jafeth Martinez	F	Jr	6'9"	31-20	18.3	4.6	5.1	0.2	0.7	67.6%	—	0.0	65.6%	12.6%
7	Coen Collier	C	Jr	7'1"	30-9	14.1	1.8	3.8	0.6	0.5	43.1%	22.2%	0.3	37.5%	10.3%
10	Breylin Garcia	F	Sr	6'6"	21-7	14.8	6.7	4.5	0.9	1.0	60.6%	—	0.0	55.6%	25.4%
6	Kanye Jones	G	Jr	6'5"	22-1	8.9	2.7	0.3	0.4	0.2	50.0%	26.3%	0.9	81.3%	16.7%
24	Chico Johnson	G	So	6'2"	10-0	8.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.3	47.7%	42.9%	0.7	50.0%	18.4%
8	Nic Book	F	So	6'8"	7-2	10.3	4.6	3.1	0.4	0.3	81.3%	—	0.0	100.0%	15.8%
21	CJ Rich	G	Jr	5'9"	4-1	11.0	3.3	1.0	1.3	0.8	78.6%	75.0%	1.0	66.7%	13.8%
5	TJ Lewis	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

SC Upstate

Against the spread

Season

13-16

Home

6-6

Road

7-9

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

13-15-1

Home

6-5-1

Road

7-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −2.4

Under 3 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdogOver in 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	N	L 64–65	−11.0	L−12.0	144.0	U129	99.1	100.7	64.6
Feb 28	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	H	W 71–61	−13.5	L−3.5	146.5	U132	101.0	86.8	70.3
Feb 26	RadfordAdjEM #245	A	L 59–71	+8.0	L−4.0	153.0	U130	87.6	105.4	67.4
Feb 21	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	W 76–74	+1.0	W+3.0	141.5	O150	118.0	114.9	64.4
Feb 19	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 64–68	+13.0	W+9.0	155.0	U132	95.3	101.2	67.2
Feb 14	LongwoodAdjEM #248	A	L 75–82 OT	+6.0	L−1.0	146.5	O157	89.6	98.0	83.7
Feb 12	High PointAdjEM #50	H	L 70–95	+14.0	L−11.0	154.5	O165	93.3	126.6	75.1
Feb 7	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	H	W 100–94 OT	+1.0	W+7.0	151.5	O194	129.9	122.1	77.0
Feb 4	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	A	L 67–76	+6.5	L−2.5	140.5	O143	99.2	112.5	67.6
Jan 29	LongwoodAdjEM #248	H	W 65–60	+1.5	W+6.5	147.5	U125	92.3	85.2	70.4

Campbell

Against the spread

Season

18-13-1

Home

6-5-1

Road

9-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-15

Home

6-6

Road

9-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.3

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	MonmouthAdjEM #173	N	L 64–74	+1.5	L−8.5	152.0	U138	95.2	110.1	67.2
Mar 8	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	N	W 85–70	+7.5	W+22.5	149.0	O155	118.7	97.8	71.6
Mar 7	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	N	W 96–89	−3.0	W+4.0	147.0	O185	132.8	123.2	72.3
Mar 3	NC A&TAdjEM #271	H	W 90–72	−7.5	W+10.5	155.0	O162	127.3	101.8	70.7
Feb 28	TowsonAdjEM #149	A	L 67–71	+5.0	W+1.0	141.5	U138	113.2	120.0	59.2
Feb 26	DrexelAdjEM #214	A	L 60–65	+1.0	L−4.0	141.5	U125	94.2	102.0	63.7
Feb 21	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	H	L 68–73	+2.5	L−2.5	150.5	U141	99.5	106.8	68.3
Feb 19	William & MaryAdjEM #127	H	W 84–83	+2.5	W+3.5	167.5	U167	113.1	111.8	74.3
Feb 15	CharlestonAdjEM #165	H	L 57–62	−2.5	L−7.5	160.0	U119	93.8	102.0	60.8
Feb 7	NC A&TAdjEM #271	A	W 79–71	−3.0	W+5.0	159.5	U150	112.6	101.2	70.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SC UpstateCampbell

Efficiency

102.8

109.3

109.0

110.9

68.5

69.9

—

Shooting

48.3%

50.1%

48.9%

51.2%

31.4%

32.3%

68.1%

72.5%

32.8%

43.5%

Ball control & glass

18.2%

17.6%

16.4%

17.0%

29.2%

33.5%

31.4%

32.0%

10.6%

9.7%

11.0%

10.5%

Style

35.6%

36.9%

46.2%

46.3%

14.5%

16.1%

46.0%

44.9%

35.4%

22.5%

Roster

2.98

3.22

6'4.5"

6'4.2"

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SC Upstate

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Campbell

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.