CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceChristl Arena, West Point, NY
St Thomas
Efficiency #84
2025-26: 24-10 · 13-5 conf
@
Army
Efficiency #336
2025-26: 11-21 · 5-14 conf
Sat, Nov 14 · 1:00 PM ET
79.1
win 73%
Projected
72.1
win 27%
No line posted yet.
Model: STMN −7.0 · total 151.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Army 68.2, St Thomas 69.0 → 68.9 possessions
+1.2
Army offense vs St Thomas defense
−4.6
St Thomas offense vs Army defense
+6.4
Projected total
151.2
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Army offense vs St Thomas defense
−4.6
St Thomas offense vs Army defense
−6.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
St Thomas by 7.0
7.0
St Thomas side ◂▸ Army side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Army.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St Thomas is the faster team (69.7, #104 of 365) and Army the slower (67.2, #234). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.2
model
Projected team totals
79.1 / 72.1
St Thomas / Army
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#122
St Thomas
68.2#195
Army

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSt Thomas
Where St Thomas scores: shooting
St Thomas shoots an effective 58.9% (#5); Army allows 55.1% (#334). Expect about 57.6%, 6.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +9.1 points per 100 possessions.
GlassSt Thomas
St Thomas gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 23.6% is worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions against St Thomas's offense.
TurnoversSt Thomas
St Thomas protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.5% is worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions for St Thomas's offense.
AdvantageArmy
Where Army struggles: shooting
Army shoots an effective 49.3% (#279); St Thomas allows 50.7% (#139). Expect about 49.8%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
St Thomas has the ball
OffenseArmy allowsvs D1 avg
58.9% #5
55.1% #334
+9.1 pt/100
14.3% #36
15.4% #257
+2.7 pt/100
22.6% #353
27.7% #54
-4.1 pt/100
33.8% #220
39.6% #298
+0.3 pt/100
68.7% #305
—
-0.3 pt/100
St Thomas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.6 pts/100
Army has the ball
OffenseSt Thomas allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #279
50.7% #139
-2.1 pt/100
17.2% #220
17.0% #149
-0.5 pt/100
29.6% #219
26.6% #25
-1.5 pt/100
26.8% #352
30.7% #78
-0.8 pt/100
71.7% #215
—
-0.1 pt/100
Army net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
St Thomasoffense vsArmydefense
Share of shots by zone
St Thomas shoots
Army allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim68.5%#364.9%#34858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.6%#4437.3%#12139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.8%#23437.6%#14438.0%
Three36.0%#5735.6%#28533.7%
Armyoffense vsSt Thomasdefense
Share of shots by zone
Army shoots
St Thomas allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.2%#18758.4%#15858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.0%#19433.8%#4139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)27.5%#36437.9%#15638.0%
Three32.0%#27831.7%#5233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
St Thomas
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#120 of 365
Off reb %
22.6%
#353
Def reb %
73.4%
#25
Turnover %
14.3%
#36
Forced TO %
17.0%
#149
FT rate
33.8%
#220
FT allowed
30.7%
#78
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.5
Defensive rebounding+1.3
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Army
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#319 of 365
Off reb %
29.6%
#219
Def reb %
72.3%
#54
Turnover %
17.2%
#220
Forced TO %
15.4%
#257
FT rate
26.8%
#352
FT allowed
39.6%
#298
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−2.1
Foul shots allowed−1.1

St Thomas has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#120 of 365) to Army’s −3.7 (#319).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

St Thomas2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
23Nick JanowskiGFr6'4"34-3431.516.15.12.11.357.0%33.9%5.464.1%27.6%
4Nolan MinessaleGSo6'5"34-3431.019.84.64.32.255.4%30.6%4.275.0%34.7%
32Carter BjerkeFJr6'9"34-3424.99.43.41.20.767.3%44.9%5.258.8%17.9%
34Ben OosterbaanFSo6'6"34-3424.07.64.21.60.859.5%36.8%3.169.2%16.9%
0Isaiah Johnson-AriguFSo6'7"33-021.410.54.01.11.360.0%32.5%2.466.7%26.2%
11Austin HerroGSo6'3"27-2423.95.54.03.51.360.2%37.8%1.472.0%13.8%
12Ryan DufaultGSr6'0"33-917.75.72.31.80.768.9%33.3%0.366.0%15.6%
2Jermaine ColemanGSo6'7"34-013.94.41.90.50.454.7%34.0%3.064.7%17.7%
1Hayden TibbitsGSo5'11"26-111.03.11.01.10.353.9%34.1%1.752.4%16.2%
3Ryan LaffertyGSo6'5"11-013.51.01.91.31.145.8%20.0%0.50.0%9.5%
5Tim FranksGFr6'5"16-04.02.10.80.40.166.7%60.0%0.671.4%22.6%
10Tommy Humphries Jr.GSo6'5"9-04.21.10.70.20.034.6%25.0%0.433.3%20.4%
15Adam TauerGSo6'3"12-02.80.40.30.20.140.0%0.0%0.150.0%11.3%
20Jack TauerGSr6'2"11-01.70.30.30.10.075.0%100.0%0.10.0%9.9%
24Kyle CountsFFr6'7"5-03.81.00.20.20.283.3%50.0%0.4—12.3%
13Luka MomcilovicFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
St ThomasArmy
Efficiency
111.9
103.4
107.0
114.3
69.0
68.2
—
—
Shooting
58.9%
49.3%
63.0%
50.7%
36.0%
32.0%
68.7%
71.7%
33.8%
26.8%
Ball control & glass
14.3%
17.2%
17.0%
15.4%
22.6%
29.6%
26.6%
27.7%
7.7%
10.4%
8.3%
11.2%
Style
46.3%
53.3%
46.5%
37.8%
12.6%
9.6%
56.7%
59.0%
32.7%
36.6%
Roster
2.13
2.33
6'4.9"
6'3.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
St Thomas
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Army
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Army's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 82025-26Army 76 – 83 St Thomas

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.