CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMoby Arena, Fort Collins, CO
Loyola Chicago
Efficiency #309
2025-26: 9-24 · 5-15 conf
@
Colorado St
Efficiency #88
2025-26: 21-13 · 12-10 conf
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
66.1
win 16%
Projected
77.8
win 84%
No line posted yet.
Model: CSU −11.7 · total 143.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Colorado St 65.5, Loyola Chicago 67.2 → 64.4 possessions
−8.5
Colorado St offense vs Loyola Chicago defense
+6.1
Loyola Chicago offense vs Colorado St defense
−1.9
Projected total
143.9
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Colorado St offense vs Loyola Chicago defense
+6.1
Loyola Chicago offense vs Colorado St defense
+1.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Colorado St by 11.7
11.7
Loyola Chicago side ◂▸ Colorado St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Colorado St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Loyola Chicago is the faster team (65.9, #299 of 365) and Colorado St the slower (64.4, #345). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
64.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.9
model
Projected team totals
66.1 / 77.8
Loyola Chicago / Colorado St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#271
Loyola Chicago
65.5#358
Colorado St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageColorado St
Where Colorado St scores: shooting
Colorado St shoots an effective 57.5% (#12); Loyola Chicago allows 52.0% (#214). Expect about 55.3%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.7 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Colorado St averages 64.4 possessions per 40, Loyola Chicago 65.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashColorado St
Style match: ball movement
Colorado St assists on 62.9% of its made baskets; Loyola Chicago allows assists on 61.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 65.0% — both habits push the same way.
ClashColorado St
Style match: 3-point volume
Colorado St takes 49.1% of its shots from three; Loyola Chicago lets opponents take 44.3% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 50.3% — both habits push the same way.
ClashLoyola Chicago
Style match: 3-point volume
Loyola Chicago takes 47.7% of its shots from three; Colorado St lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.3% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Colorado St, Loyola Chicago's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Loyola Chicago at about 48.3% of its shots from three, Colorado St about 50.3%.
Loyola Chicago has the ball
OffenseColorado St allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #246
52.9% #263
-0.0 pt/100
19.8% #343
15.5% #253
-1.1 pt/100
30.5% #179
29.3% #123
-0.3 pt/100
34.8% #188
34.2% #155
-0.1 pt/100
67.3% #340
—
-0.5 pt/100
Loyola Chicago net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.0 pts/100
Colorado St has the ball
OffenseLoyola Chicago allowsvs D1 avg
57.5% #12
52.0% #214
+5.7 pt/100
18.5% #296
12.9% #357
+1.8 pt/100
30.0% #198
29.7% #146
-0.4 pt/100
39.4% #69
33.6% #143
+0.2 pt/100
77.0% #33
—
+0.4 pt/100
Colorado St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Loyola Chicagooffense vsColorado Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Loyola Chicago shoots
Colorado St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.0%#19959.3%#20358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.2%#28448.7%#34739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.6%#13040.6%#26338.0%
Three31.7%#29634.2%#19633.7%
Colorado Stoffense vsLoyola Chicagodefense
Share of shots by zone
Colorado St shoots
Loyola Chicago allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim66.1%#1554.2%#4358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.0%#33142.5%#23939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4539.3%#21238.0%
Three38.6%#936.8%#34233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Loyola Chicago
−3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#329 of 365
Off reb %
30.5%
#179
Def reb %
70.3%
#146
Turnover %
19.8%
#343
Forced TO %
12.9%
#357
FT rate
34.8%
#188
FT allowed
33.6%
#143
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−2.0
Forcing turnovers−2.6
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Colorado St
−0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#190 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#198
Def reb %
70.7%
#123
Turnover %
18.5%
#296
Forced TO %
15.5%
#253
FT rate
39.4%
#69
FT allowed
34.2%
#155
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.3

Colorado St has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.3 (#190 of 365) to Loyola Chicago’s −3.9 (#329).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Loyola Chicago2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Loyola Chicago's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
24Miles RubinCJr6'10"33-3329.711.37.12.32.058.5%0.0%0.054.3%23.9%
0Deywilk TavarezGJr6'2"33-1722.98.92.31.81.546.2%31.4%6.488.6%28.0%
4Kayde DotsonGSo6'1"28-2126.610.52.82.01.653.0%38.0%5.877.0%25.2%
1Justin MooreGJr6'3"22-2230.010.92.23.83.045.8%29.8%3.874.0%27.8%
2Joshua Ola-JosephFSr6'7"29-921.57.63.80.70.947.7%28.4%3.375.3%22.6%
28Kymany HouinsouGSr6'7"20-2025.46.04.23.02.155.3%41.7%0.664.9%17.3%
13Xavier AmosFSr6'8"19-1826.211.14.30.71.347.5%30.3%4.773.3%27.4%
8Nic AndersonGFr6'4"27-517.35.12.40.50.842.1%27.7%2.457.8%22.6%
9Alexander RichardsonCSr6'9"30-512.93.33.80.70.757.7%0.0%0.047.4%17.5%
5Daniil GlazkovGSo6'6"26-212.72.71.90.50.552.6%37.5%1.550.0%14.8%
10Chuck LoveGFr6'7"13-724.87.22.61.00.752.7%32.8%4.578.9%17.9%
14Caleb ReeseGSr5'11"18-412.91.71.41.41.130.9%15.8%1.152.9%15.8%
30Brayden YoungFFr6'9"11-04.70.41.00.10.466.7%—0.00.0%9.8%
7Dominick HarrisGSr6'3"7-26.41.40.60.30.328.1%21.4%2.050.0%25.3%
31Zachary RoysterFSr6'7"7-02.90.70.30.00.150.0%25.0%0.6—18.9%
22Sam YurasekGJr6'3"3-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Loyola ChicagoColorado St
Efficiency
104.3
114.2
112.3
109.6
67.2
65.5
—
—
Shooting
49.8%
57.5%
51.9%
57.1%
31.7%
38.6%
67.3%
77.0%
34.8%
39.4%
Ball control & glass
19.8%
18.5%
12.9%
15.5%
30.5%
30.0%
29.7%
29.3%
10.9%
10.5%
13.9%
9.0%
Style
47.7%
49.1%
41.0%
35.6%
10.2%
11.1%
60.8%
62.9%
30.4%
30.9%
Roster
2.93
2.73
6'5.4"
6'5.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Loyola Chicago
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Loyola Chicago's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Colorado St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Colorado St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sun, Nov 162025-26Colorado St 80 – 67 Loyola Chicago

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.