CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFord Center, Evansville, IN

Miami OH

Efficiency #66

2025-26: 32-2 · 18-1 conf

Evansville

Efficiency #327

2025-26: 7-25 · 3-18 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · TBD

80.3

win 76%

Projected

72.3

win 24%

No line posted yet.

Model: M-OH −8.0 · total 152.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Evansville 68.1, Miami OH 69.8 → 69.5 possessions

+2.7

Evansville offense vs Miami OH defense

−5.2

Miami OH offense vs Evansville defense

+6.9

Projected total

152.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Evansville offense vs Miami OH defense

−5.2

Miami OH offense vs Evansville defense

−6.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Miami OH by 8.0

8.0

Miami OH side ◂▸ Evansville side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −8.1 against −8.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Evansville.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Miami OH is the faster team (71.0, #55 of 365) and Evansville the slower (67.4, #228). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.6

model

Projected team totals

80.3 / 72.3

Miami OH / Evansville

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#62

Miami OH

68.1#206

Evansville

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMiami OH

Where Miami OH scores: shooting

Miami OH shoots an effective 58.6% (#6); Evansville allows 55.1% (#332). Expect about 57.5%, 6.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +8.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageEvansville

Where Evansville struggles: the offensive glass

Evansville rebounds 22.0% of its own misses (#355); Miami OH lets opponents grab 28.7% of their own misses (#92). Expect about 23.7%, 6.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversMiami OH

Miami OH protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.5% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Miami OH's offense.

ClashMiami OH

Style match: 3-point volume

Miami OH takes 45.6% of its shots from three; Evansville lets opponents take 43.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.7% — both habits push the same way.

GlassMiami OH

Miami OH gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.9% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Miami OH's offense.

TurnoversEvansville

Evansville turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Evansville's offense.

Miami OH has the ball

OffenseEvansville allowsvs D1 avg

58.6% #6

55.1% #332

+8.8 pt/100

14.3% #34

15.4% #259

+2.8 pt/100

25.5% #332

30.2% #170

-2.2 pt/100

39.6% #64

31.4% #93

+0.0 pt/100

74.9% #89

—

+0.2 pt/100

Miami OH net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.6 pts/100

Evansville has the ball

OffenseMiami OH allowsvs D1 avg

49.3% #280

51.2% #167

-1.7 pt/100

19.1% #323

17.4% #125

-2.1 pt/100

22.0% #355

28.7% #92

-4.1 pt/100

29.8% #315

30.2% #63

-0.7 pt/100

73.6% #149

—

+0.1 pt/100

Evansville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Miami OHoffense vsEvansvilledefense

Share of shots by zone

Miami OH shoots

37.7

4.7

11.1

46.5

Evansville allows

33.7

8.5

15.0

42.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	68.9%#2	61.4%#282	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.6%#89	39.6%#178	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#47	42.2%#311	38.0%
Three	37.1%#25	37.6%#351	33.7%

Evansvilleoffense vsMiami OHdefense

Share of shots by zone

Evansville shoots

29.0

9.9

17.9

43.1

Miami OH allows

38.1

8.1

17.1

36.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.7%#170	58.8%#183	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#208	41.0%#209	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.8%#191	40.3%#255	38.0%
Three	32.2%#268	33.1%#131	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Miami OH

+3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#42 of 365

Off reb %

25.5%

#332

Def reb %

71.3%

#92

Turnover %

14.3%

#34

Forced TO %

17.4%

#125

FT rate

39.6%

#64

FT allowed

30.2%

#63

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.6

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+0.5

Foul shots drawn+1.2

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Evansville

−5.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#349 of 365

Off reb %

22.0%

#355

Def reb %

69.8%

#170

Turnover %

19.1%

#323

Forced TO %

15.4%

#259

FT rate

29.8%

#315

FT allowed

31.4%

#93

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.7

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security−1.6

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed+1.0

Miami OH has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.7 (#42 of 365) to Evansville’s −5.4 (#349).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Miami OH2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Brant Byers	G	So	6'8"	34-33	30.8	14.2	4.1	0.6	0.9	59.4%	39.2%	5.2	78.5%	21.8%
0	Eian Elmer	G	Jr	6'6"	34-34	30.3	12.7	5.9	1.1	1.2	62.5%	42.9%	4.9	75.8%	20.3%
3	Luke Skaljac	G	So	6'2"	32-21	28.0	10.3	3.0	4.7	1.8	55.1%	35.3%	3.6	78.7%	21.3%
13	Antwone Woolfolk	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	23.3	9.8	5.3	1.5	1.5	65.7%	32.4%	1.1	55.2%	22.1%
11	Almar Atlason	F	Jr	6'8"	34-1	18.8	9.9	2.5	1.1	0.8	57.8%	36.4%	4.9	80.8%	26.3%
1	Trey Perry	G	Fr	6'2"	32-1	13.1	5.8	1.6	1.3	0.6	59.5%	38.3%	1.5	74.5%	22.3%
12	Justin Kirby	G	Fr	6'4"	21-1	17.0	6.2	3.2	0.6	0.5	63.1%	40.5%	2.0	81.1%	17.4%
2	Evan Ipsaro	G	Jr	6'0"	12-12	27.8	13.9	2.4	3.3	1.3	63.8%	39.4%	2.8	82.4%	22.9%
20	Tyler Robbins	F	Fr	6'10"	25-0	6.3	3.3	2.0	0.3	0.4	61.4%	26.7%	0.6	68.4%	25.8%
25	Kyle Waltz	F	Fr	6'7"	20-0	7.8	3.1	1.4	0.6	0.3	67.1%	37.5%	1.2	66.7%	17.5%
24	Jackson Kotecki	F	Jr	6'9"	4-0	7.3	1.5	2.0	0.5	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	66.7%	15.5%
4	Brady Ganley	G	Fr	6'3"	6-0	2.3	1.8	0.5	0.3	0.2	112.5%	100.0%	0.2	100.0%	21.6%
8	Eli Yofan	G	Sr	6'2"	2-1	7.0	1.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	75.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	7.2%
7	Ethan Wright	F	Jr	6'5"	5-0	1.8	1.4	0.8	0.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	83.3%	33.3%
33	Blake Anderson	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Leshawn Stowers	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Evansville2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Evansville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
6	Leif Moeller	G	Fr	6'7"	32-32	32.5	10.8	3.8	4.0	2.8	48.8%	36.6%	4.1	77.1%	23.8%
23	AJ Casey	F	Sr	6'9"	32-20	29.7	13.5	5.9	2.0	2.0	54.5%	33.9%	1.9	73.8%	27.2%
11	Joshua Hughes	F	Jr	6'10"	32-32	27.6	9.3	4.7	0.8	1.1	58.2%	36.4%	3.7	75.0%	19.0%
0	Bryce Quinet	G	Fr	6'3"	32-19	26.9	8.7	2.1	2.4	1.8	45.8%	30.3%	2.4	71.4%	23.2%
12	Alex Hemenway	G	Sr	6'4"	32-32	25.9	6.7	1.9	0.8	0.6	45.4%	31.7%	5.1	81.8%	17.3%
45	Trent Hundley	F	Sr	6'6"	32-1	17.6	5.3	1.7	0.6	0.5	54.6%	37.1%	3.3	89.3%	16.9%
1	Keishon Porter	G	Sr	6'5"	16-10	22.0	6.9	2.9	1.3	1.4	38.4%	15.2%	2.1	65.9%	24.9%
9	Kaia Berridge	G	So	6'4"	27-0	12.5	2.1	1.2	0.8	0.7	41.4%	26.7%	1.7	57.1%	14.5%
22	Connor Turnbull	F	Sr	6'10"	16-14	20.1	11.5	6.1	1.1	2.0	48.4%	22.2%	1.1	66.7%	38.6%
2	James Dyson-Merwe	F	Fr	6'11"	21-0	13.1	2.4	3.4	0.9	1.5	64.7%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	15.1%
40	Weston Aigner	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	3.0	0.0	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	23.4%
5	Marlon Barnes Jr.	F	So	6'6"	3-0	4.7	2.0	0.7	0.0	0.7	37.5%	33.3%	2.0	—	42.3%
13	Leo Amari IV	G	Jr	6'2"	5-0	2.0	0.6	0.0	0.2	0.4	75.0%	50.0%	0.4	—	23.4%
33	Aaron Gutman	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
32	Dakota Candler	F	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Miami OH2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
22	Brant Byers	G	So	6'8"	34-33	30.8	14.2	4.1	0.6	0.9	59.4%	39.2%	5.2	78.5%	21.8%
0	Eian Elmer	G	Jr	6'6"	34-34	30.3	12.7	5.9	1.1	1.2	62.5%	42.9%	4.9	75.8%	20.3%
3	Luke Skaljac	G	So	6'2"	32-21	28.0	10.3	3.0	4.7	1.8	55.1%	35.3%	3.6	78.7%	21.3%
13	Antwone Woolfolk	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	23.3	9.8	5.3	1.5	1.5	65.7%	32.4%	1.1	55.2%	22.1%
11	Almar Atlason	F	Jr	6'8"	34-1	18.8	9.9	2.5	1.1	0.8	57.8%	36.4%	4.9	80.8%	26.3%
1	Trey Perry	G	Fr	6'2"	32-1	13.1	5.8	1.6	1.3	0.6	59.5%	38.3%	1.5	74.5%	22.3%
12	Justin Kirby	G	Fr	6'4"	21-1	17.0	6.2	3.2	0.6	0.5	63.1%	40.5%	2.0	81.1%	17.4%
2	Evan Ipsaro	G	Jr	6'0"	12-12	27.8	13.9	2.4	3.3	1.3	63.8%	39.4%	2.8	82.4%	22.9%
20	Tyler Robbins	F	Fr	6'10"	25-0	6.3	3.3	2.0	0.3	0.4	61.4%	26.7%	0.6	68.4%	25.8%
25	Kyle Waltz	F	Fr	6'7"	20-0	7.8	3.1	1.4	0.6	0.3	67.1%	37.5%	1.2	66.7%	17.5%
24	Jackson Kotecki	F	Jr	6'9"	4-0	7.3	1.5	2.0	0.5	0.5	25.0%	0.0%	0.5	66.7%	15.5%
4	Brady Ganley	G	Fr	6'3"	6-0	2.3	1.8	0.5	0.3	0.2	112.5%	100.0%	0.2	100.0%	21.6%
8	Eli Yofan	G	Sr	6'2"	2-1	7.0	1.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	75.0%	50.0%	1.0	—	7.2%
7	Ethan Wright	F	Jr	6'5"	5-0	1.8	1.4	0.8	0.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	83.3%	33.3%
33	Blake Anderson	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Leshawn Stowers	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Miami OH

Against the spread

Season

20-11

Home

8-5

Road

10-4

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-13

Home

9-4

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.2

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#6TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	L 56–78	+12.0	L−10.0	149.0	U134	85.2	118.7	65.7
Mar 18	#11SMUAdjEM #44	N	W 89–79	+7.0	W+17.0	160.5	O168	134.3	119.2	66.3
Mar 12	UMassAdjEM #184	N	L 83–87	−8.0	L−12.0	163.5	O170	120.2	126.0	69.0
Mar 6	OhioAdjEM #233	A	W 110–108 OT	−3.5	L−1.5	160.0	O218	132.3	129.8	83.2
Mar 3	ToledoAdjEM #115	H	W 74–72	−8.0	L−6.0	162.5	U146	107.6	104.7	68.8
Feb 27	W MichiganAdjEM #276	A	W 69–67	−11.5	L−9.5	163.0	U136	101.2	98.3	68.2
Feb 24	E MichiganAdjEM #247	A	W 74–64	−9.0	W+1.0	152.5	U138	103.5	89.5	71.5
Feb 20	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	H	W 91–77	−8.0	W+6.0	154.0	O168	123.0	104.1	74.0
Feb 17	UMassAdjEM #184	A	W 86–77	−3.0	W+6.0	163.5	U163	121.7	109.0	70.6
Feb 13	OhioAdjEM #233	H	W 90–74	−7.5	W+8.5	164.5	U164	125.2	102.9	71.9

Evansville

Against the spread

Season

15-15

Home

6-7

Road

7-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −5.2

Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-13-1

Home

8-5

Road

7-6

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +7.0

Under in the last gameOver in 7 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	N	L 59–68	+15.0	W+6.0	128.5	U127	94.0	108.3	62.8
Mar 1	S IllinoisAdjEM #107	H	L 67–81	+9.0	L−5.0	139.5	O148	104.9	126.8	63.9
Feb 28	ValparaisoAdjEM #176	H	W 80–79	+5.0	W+6.0	138.0	O159	117.9	116.4	67.9
Feb 25	BelmontAdjEM #54	A	L 64–98	+18.5	L−15.5	152.0	O162	94.8	145.2	67.5
Feb 21	Murray StAdjEM #108	A	L 75–88	+14.0	W+1.0	153.0	O163	104.0	122.1	72.1
Feb 18	UICAdjEM #99	H	L 46–84	+8.0	L−30.0	140.0	U130	71.2	130.1	64.6
Feb 12	S IllinoisAdjEM #107	A	L 60–86	+12.0	L−14.0	142.5	O146	88.2	126.4	68.1
Feb 9	Illinois StAdjEM #80	H	W 88–80	+10.5	W+18.5	138.0	O168	132.7	120.6	66.3
Feb 6	ValparaisoAdjEM #176	A	L 63–70 OT	+8.5	W+1.5	136.5	U133	91.1	101.2	69.2
Feb 3	Indiana StAdjEM #213	H	L 63–84	+1.0	L−20.0	145.0	O147	100.5	134.0	62.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Miami OHEvansville

Efficiency

114.6

102.4

107.1

112.2

69.8

68.1

—

Shooting

58.6%

49.3%

61.0%

49.9%

37.1%

32.2%

74.9%

73.6%

39.6%

29.8%

Ball control & glass

14.3%

19.1%

17.4%

15.4%

25.5%

22.0%

28.7%

30.2%

8.6%

11.1%

7.7%

7.1%

Style

45.6%

43.1%

40.4%

40.3%

11.0%

7.5%

51.4%

54.3%

29.2%

30.0%

Roster

2.43

2.74

6'5.7"

6'6.7"

85.1%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Miami OH

Returning minutes: 85.1%Returning production: 82.9%

Lost

Peter Suder 30.2 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Blake Anderson no D1 minutes last season
Leshawn Stowers no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Evansville

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Evansville's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.