CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceZidian Family Arena at Beeghly Center, Youngstown, OH

Marshall

Efficiency #175

2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf

Youngstown St

Efficiency #204

2025-26: 15-17 · 8-13 conf

Sat, Nov 14 · TBD

75.3

win 40%

Projected

78.3

win 60%

No line posted yet.

Model: YSU −3.0 · total 153.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Youngstown St 68.3, Marshall 69.7 → 69.6 possessions

+2.8

Youngstown St offense vs Marshall defense

+0.7

Marshall offense vs Youngstown St defense

+1.8

Projected total

153.6

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Youngstown St offense vs Marshall defense

+0.7

Marshall offense vs Youngstown St defense

−1.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Youngstown St by 3.0

3.0

Marshall side ◂▸ Youngstown St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.5 against a projected 153.6, and the margin steps add to +2.9 against +3.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Youngstown St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marshall is the faster team (70.7, #66 of 365) and Youngstown St the slower (68.6, #169). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.6

model

Projected team totals

75.3 / 78.3

Marshall / Youngstown St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.7#71

Marshall

68.3#187

Youngstown St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMarshall

Where Marshall scores: shooting

Marshall shoots an effective 54.8% (#42); Youngstown St allows 52.3% (#228). Expect about 53.8%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseMarshall

Marshall's shot-blocking

Marshall ranks #23 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of Youngstown St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Marshall) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Marshall at about 40.0% of its shots from three, Youngstown St about 47.5%.

ClashMarshall

Style clash: 3-point volume

Marshall takes 44.3% of its shots from three; Youngstown St runs teams off the line (34.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashMarshall

Style clash: paint scoring

Marshall gets only 37.7% of its points in the paint; Youngstown St gives up 46.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

Marshall has the ball

OffenseYoungstown St allowsvs D1 avg

54.8% #42

52.3% #228

+3.7 pt/100

16.6% #171

17.8% #106

-0.7 pt/100

31.9% #127

30.7% #191

+0.7 pt/100

29.2% #328

36.0% #210

-0.3 pt/100

73.0% #168

—

+0.1 pt/100

Marshall net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.5 pts/100

Youngstown St has the ball

OffenseMarshall allowsvs D1 avg

53.7% #76

50.3% #118

+1.2 pt/100

18.8% #313

16.3% #201

-1.1 pt/100

30.4% #182

33.8% #316

+1.0 pt/100

31.4% #272

41.1% #313

+0.2 pt/100

73.3% #159

—

+0.1 pt/100

Youngstown St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Marshalloffense vsYoungstown Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Marshall shoots

31.0

3.9

21.0

44.1

Youngstown St allows

42.4

8.0

15.8

33.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.8%#8	59.8%#217	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.8%#248	37.4%#123	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.9%#229	33.6%#41	38.0%
Three	36.8%#34	35.5%#280	33.7%

Youngstown Stoffense vsMarshalldefense

Share of shots by zone

Youngstown St shoots

39.9

5.3

5.5

49.2

Marshall allows

36.7

5.4

18.8

39.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.9%#75	60.2%#241	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#337	35.8%#87	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#176	34.0%#50	38.0%
Three	33.8%#184	33.6%#162	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Marshall

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#322 of 365

Off reb %

31.9%

#127

Def reb %

66.2%

#316

Turnover %

16.6%

#171

Forced TO %

16.3%

#201

FT rate

29.2%

#328

FT allowed

41.1%

#313

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn−1.5

Foul shots allowed−1.5

Youngstown St

−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#263 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#182

Def reb %

69.3%

#191

Turnover %

18.8%

#313

Forced TO %

17.8%

#106

FT rate

31.4%

#272

FT allowed

36.0%

#210

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Youngstown St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.8 (#263 of 365) to Marshall’s −3.7 (#322).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Marshall2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
50	Jalen Speer	G	Sr	6'1"	32-32	32.5	15.7	4.1	5.5	2.4	48.7%	36.4%	7.8	83.0%	30.4%
5	Noah Otshudi	G	Sr	6'2"	31-31	31.5	14.5	3.4	3.5	2.7	48.9%	30.0%	2.3	84.5%	29.0%
3	Wilson Dubinsky	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	18.8	5.0	3.2	1.2	0.4	49.6%	37.1%	3.3	77.4%	15.6%
15	Caleb Hollenbeck	G	Sr	6'4"	32-27	17.3	5.7	1.6	1.0	0.4	58.3%	39.7%	4.3	41.7%	17.5%
6	Landen Joseph	G	Fr	6'2"	31-6	17.8	7.9	2.5	2.1	1.2	59.2%	41.3%	3.0	70.8%	24.5%
13	Matt Van Komen	C	Sr	7'4"	22-20	20.9	7.8	7.6	0.6	1.6	73.7%	—	0.0	76.2%	18.7%
11	Erich Harding	F	So	6'10"	32-12	14.3	3.8	2.7	0.5	0.7	62.8%	0.0%	0.1	47.2%	15.5%
9	Shamarrie Hugie	G	Jr	6'6"	26-1	12.3	4.4	2.5	0.5	0.7	56.8%	41.4%	1.1	64.7%	20.4%
4	Drew Fuquay	F	Jr	6'8"	28-0	7.8	2.8	1.9	0.2	0.3	64.3%	41.7%	0.4	72.7%	17.5%
8	Bryce Slay	G	Fr	6'6"	24-0	8.7	2.1	1.1	0.6	0.3	41.3%	35.7%	1.2	81.3%	16.5%
0	Kai Spears	G	Jr	6'3"	15-0	4.9	1.2	1.1	0.4	0.1	31.3%	0.0%	0.1	88.9%	16.0%
14	Grant Moore	G	Jr	6'6"	2-0	3.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	33.3%	1.5	—	35.8%
1	Kaiden White	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Will Moore	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Youngstown St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Cris Carroll	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	30.3	17.4	5.2	1.8	2.7	59.4%	39.6%	7.1	78.0%	32.7%
9	Bryson Dawkins	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	26.8	12.6	4.6	1.4	1.5	56.9%	30.7%	3.2	61.4%	27.5%
2	Rich Rolf	F	Jr	6'7"	31-30	26.6	9.1	4.5	2.1	1.0	56.7%	36.8%	4.0	88.1%	19.4%
0	Jason Nelson	G	Sr	5'10"	31-31	25.0	6.9	2.8	2.9	1.6	44.1%	28.0%	2.4	75.0%	20.3%
6	Drew King	G	Jr	6'3"	32-1	17.4	2.8	3.1	2.9	1.2	50.9%	29.4%	0.5	71.1%	12.5%
1	Cam Polak	G	Sr	6'2"	29-10	17.2	5.8	1.6	0.6	1.1	55.3%	38.5%	3.6	79.3%	21.5%
7	Vlad Salaridze	F	Sr	6'7"	27-4	17.7	8.4	4.3	1.5	1.0	50.9%	33.3%	2.4	77.6%	28.3%
10	Imanuel Zorgvol	C	Sr	7'0"	32-14	14.7	5.7	2.8	0.3	0.9	65.2%	33.3%	0.4	69.6%	21.7%
8	Jaiden Haynes	G	Fr	6'3"	21-2	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.3	52.9%	33.3%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Tyler Robinett	F	Sr	6'8"	11-4	12.5	3.0	2.7	0.5	0.5	44.1%	16.7%	1.1	50.0%	18.5%
5	Shaheed Solebo	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	6.7	2.3	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	16.7%	0.9	53.8%	35.7%
3	Derrick Anderson	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	5.5	2.7	0.7	1.0	0.0	57.7%	16.7%	1.0	50.0%	38.7%
21	Connor Swider	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Markus Navarra	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Marshall2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
50	Jalen Speer	G	Sr	6'1"	32-32	32.5	15.7	4.1	5.5	2.4	48.7%	36.4%	7.8	83.0%	30.4%
5	Noah Otshudi	G	Sr	6'2"	31-31	31.5	14.5	3.4	3.5	2.7	48.9%	30.0%	2.3	84.5%	29.0%
3	Wilson Dubinsky	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	18.8	5.0	3.2	1.2	0.4	49.6%	37.1%	3.3	77.4%	15.6%
15	Caleb Hollenbeck	G	Sr	6'4"	32-27	17.3	5.7	1.6	1.0	0.4	58.3%	39.7%	4.3	41.7%	17.5%
6	Landen Joseph	G	Fr	6'2"	31-6	17.8	7.9	2.5	2.1	1.2	59.2%	41.3%	3.0	70.8%	24.5%
13	Matt Van Komen	C	Sr	7'4"	22-20	20.9	7.8	7.6	0.6	1.6	73.7%	—	0.0	76.2%	18.7%
11	Erich Harding	F	So	6'10"	32-12	14.3	3.8	2.7	0.5	0.7	62.8%	0.0%	0.1	47.2%	15.5%
9	Shamarrie Hugie	G	Jr	6'6"	26-1	12.3	4.4	2.5	0.5	0.7	56.8%	41.4%	1.1	64.7%	20.4%
4	Drew Fuquay	F	Jr	6'8"	28-0	7.8	2.8	1.9	0.2	0.3	64.3%	41.7%	0.4	72.7%	17.5%
8	Bryce Slay	G	Fr	6'6"	24-0	8.7	2.1	1.1	0.6	0.3	41.3%	35.7%	1.2	81.3%	16.5%
0	Kai Spears	G	Jr	6'3"	15-0	4.9	1.2	1.1	0.4	0.1	31.3%	0.0%	0.1	88.9%	16.0%
14	Grant Moore	G	Jr	6'6"	2-0	3.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	33.3%	1.5	—	35.8%
1	Kaiden White	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Will Moore	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Marshall

Against the spread

Season

10-20-1

Home

4-11-1

Road

6-8

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.3

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

19-12

Home

12-4

Road

7-7

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +12.6

Under in the last gameOver in 7 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	N	L 78–82	−3.5	L−7.5	166.5	U160	107.7	113.3	72.4
Feb 27	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	H	L 82–99	−7.5	L−24.5	168.5	O181	114.4	138.1	71.7
Feb 24	Old DominionAdjEM #242	H	W 97–88	−8.5	W+0.5	160.5	O185	134.5	122.0	72.1
Feb 21	CoastalAdjEM #241	A	L 75–79	−2.5	L−6.5	153.5	O154	99.5	104.8	75.3
Feb 19	App StateAdjEM #180	A	W 94–93	+3.5	W+4.5	143.5	O187	141.4	139.9	66.5
Feb 16	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	H	W 84–80	−5.5	L−1.5	151.0	O164	129.8	123.6	64.7
Feb 14	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	A	L 87–101	−2.5	L−16.5	162.5	O188	112.2	130.3	77.5
Feb 11	Old DominionAdjEM #242	A	W 81–79	−3.0	L−1.0	156.0	O160	114.7	111.9	70.6
Feb 7	#23Miami OHAdjEM #66	H	L 74–90	+2.0	L−14.0	164.5	U164	104.9	127.6	70.5
Feb 4	Southern MissAdjEM #218	H	W 81–77	−10.5	L−6.5	148.5	O158	122.1	116.1	66.3

Youngstown St

Against the spread

Season

10-18-1

Home

4-8

Road

5-9-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.9

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

5-7

Road

10-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.8

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 53–68	+4.0	L−11.0	143.5	U121	84.9	109.0	62.4
Feb 28	Green BayAdjEM #222	A	L 63–85	+1.5	L−20.5	142.0	O148	96.4	130.0	65.4
Feb 25	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	A	L 65–78	−1.0	L−14.0	148.5	U143	94.9	113.9	68.5
Feb 22	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	W 64–58	−2.0	W+4.0	152.5	U122	86.5	78.4	73.9
Feb 18	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 106–82	−11.0	W+13.0	156.5	O188	151.0	116.8	70.2
Feb 15	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 70–76	−3.0	L−9.0	150.5	U146	97.9	106.3	71.5
Feb 12	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 86–82	+4.0	W+8.0	156.0	O168	123.1	117.4	69.8
Feb 7	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	L 66–72	−3.5	L−9.5	144.0	U138	102.2	111.5	64.6
Feb 4	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	W 90–61	+2.5	W+31.5	147.0	O151	141.6	96.0	63.5
Jan 30	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 85–76	−10.5	L−1.5	154.0	O161	116.0	103.7	73.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MarshallYoungstown St

Efficiency

111.3

106.8

111.2

108.3

69.7

68.3

—

Shooting

54.8%

53.7%

54.6%

56.6%

36.8%

33.8%

73.0%

73.3%

29.2%

31.4%

Ball control & glass

16.6%

18.8%

16.3%

17.8%

31.9%

30.4%

33.8%

30.7%

10.1%

10.8%

8.1%

9.7%

Style

44.3%

49.4%

37.7%

42.0%

15.3%

14.0%

56.5%

53.8%

32.6%

36.9%

Roster

3.30

3.58

6'4.6"

6'4.3"

85.4%

93.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Marshall

Returning minutes: 85.4%Returning production: 80.3%

Lost

Wyatt Fricks 29.1 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Kaiden White no D1 minutes last season
Will Moore no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Youngstown St

Returning minutes: 93.2%Returning production: 94.3%

Lost

Tae Blackshear 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Niagara

Added

Connor Swider no D1 minutes last season
Markus Navarra no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.