CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJack Stephens Center, Little Rock, AR
N'Western St
Efficiency #299
2025-26: 10-22 · 8-15 conf
@
Little Rock
Efficiency #300
2025-26: 12-20 · 9-12 conf
Sat, Nov 14 · 8:00 PM ET
69.1
win 37%
Projected
72.8
win 63%
No line posted yet.
Model: LR −3.7 · total 141.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Little Rock 67.7, N'Western St 66.6 → 66.0 possessions
−5.0
Little Rock offense vs N'Western St defense
−0.7
N'Western St offense vs Little Rock defense
−0.7
Projected total
141.8
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Little Rock offense vs N'Western St defense
−0.7
N'Western St offense vs Little Rock defense
+0.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Little Rock by 3.7
3.7
N'Western St side ◂▸ Little Rock side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +3.8 against +3.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Little Rock.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Little Rock is the faster team (67.6, #217 of 365) and N'Western St the slower (65.2, #329). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.8
model
Projected team totals
69.1 / 72.8
N'Western St / Little Rock
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.6#314
N'Western St
67.7#233
Little Rock
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Little Rock averages 67.6 possessions per 40, N'Western St 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageN'Western St
Where N'Western St struggles: ball control
N'Western St turns it over on 18.3% of possessions (#288); Little Rock forces turnovers on 18.5% of opponent possessions (#71). Expect about 18.8%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseLittle Rock
Little Rock's shot-blocking
Little Rock ranks #37 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.6% of N'Western St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
N'Western St has the ball
OffenseLittle Rock allowsvs D1 avg
48.6% #301
51.8% #199
-1.9 pt/100
18.3% #288
18.5% #71
-2.4 pt/100
26.1% #321
36.6% #357
-0.0 pt/100
40.1% #58
33.1% #134
+0.2 pt/100
74.0% #135
—
+0.1 pt/100
N'Western St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.0 pts/100
Little Rock has the ball
OffenseN'Western St allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #273
53.0% #270
-0.2 pt/100
18.4% #293
16.9% #163
-1.2 pt/100
31.5% #143
32.6% #286
+1.1 pt/100
27.7% #345
36.3% #218
-0.3 pt/100
68.0% #327
—
-0.4 pt/100
Little Rock net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersN'Western Stoffense vsLittle Rockdefense
Share of shots by zone
N'Western St shoots
37.7
9.9
19.1
33.3
Little Rock allows
41.3
5.8
12.8
40.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.7%#323 | 62.6%#315 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.3%#168 | 28.7%#10 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.6%#64 | 29.6%#5 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.2%#218 | 34.4%#211 | 33.7% |
Little Rockoffense vsN'Western Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Little Rock shoots
36.0
6.9
25.9
31.2
N'Western St allows
38.8
8.4
14.8
37.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.8%#57 | 60.4%#247 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.4%#323 | 35.7%#83 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.6%#349 | 41.4%#289 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.3%#96 | 35.5%#278 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersN'Western St
−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#266 of 365
Off reb %
26.1%
#321
Def reb %
67.4%
#286
Turnover %
18.3%
#288
Forced TO %
16.9%
#163
FT rate
40.1%
#58
FT allowed
36.3%
#218
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Little Rock
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#296 of 365
Off reb %
31.5%
#143
Def reb %
63.4%
#357
Turnover %
18.4%
#293
Forced TO %
18.5%
#71
FT rate
27.7%
#345
FT allowed
33.1%
#134
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.9
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+0.6
N'Western St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.9 (#266 of 365) to Little Rock’s −2.8 (#296).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
N'Western St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Micah Thomas | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-31 | 30.2 | 16.8 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 48.3% | 37.0% | 4.2 | 92.0% | 35.1% | |
| 11 | Chris Mubiru | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-28 | 26.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 50.6% | 27.7% | 2.9 | 84.9% | 16.2% | |
| 0 | Izzy Miles | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-19 | 24.4 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 49.6% | 39.7% | 2.3 | 72.7% | 27.8% | |
| 23 | Willie Williams | F | Sr | 6'6" | 26-26 | 29.8 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 62.0% | 50.0% | 0.2 | 44.4% | 19.8% | |
| 3 | Landyn Jumawan | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-20 | 20.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 39.6% | 27.4% | 3.9 | 77.1% | 17.8% | |
| 4 | CJ Larry | PG | Fr | 6'3" | 25-16 | 18.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 37.7% | 46.7% | 0.6 | 53.6% | 15.5% | |
| 10 | Kordrick Turner | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 13.7 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 53.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 59.7% | 18.9% | |
| 13 | Justin Redmond | G | So | 6'2" | 23-2 | 17.1 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 44.8% | 34.2% | 3.3 | 85.3% | 27.6% | |
| 1 | Chip Brunt | G | Jr | 6'5" | 29-2 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 58.2% | 53.8% | 0.4 | 73.0% | 18.3% | |
| 25 | Omar Adegbola | G | So | 6'4" | 21-2 | 14.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 44.5% | 28.1% | 1.5 | 82.5% | 24.4% | |
| 8 | Moustapha Loum | F | So | 6'10" | 21-4 | 11.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 61.8% | — | 0.0 | 36.4% | 13.7% | |
| 21 | J.C. Riley Jr. | C | Sr | 6'10" | 21-4 | 11.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 52.8% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 88.2% | 18.2% | |
| 33 | Quentin Bolton | G | Sr | 6'6" | 8-0 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 22.2% | 15.4% | 1.6 | — | 26.0% | |
| 15 | Seth Ned | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Little Rock2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Johnathan Lawson | G | Sr | 6'7" | 31-31 | 36.7 | 16.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 48.7% | 34.7% | 7.2 | 82.8% | 27.3% | |
| 0 | Braxton Bayless | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 33.0 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 46.5% | 35.1% | 3.0 | 70.4% | 22.7% | |
| 24 | Cameron Wallace | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-22 | 28.6 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 49.0% | 5.3% | 0.6 | 57.4% | 29.0% | |
| 32 | Tuongthach Gatkek | F | Sr | 6'9" | 29-29 | 31.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 59.1% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 66.2% | 17.6% | |
| 15 | Kachi Nzeh | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.4 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 54.9% | 41.5% | 3.7 | 69.9% | 24.9% | |
| 22 | Truman Claytor IV | F | Jr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 16.2 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 47.0% | 34.3% | 2.4 | 72.4% | 27.5% | |
| 10 | Caleb Pennyfeather | F | So | 6'9" | 29-4 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 45.5% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 33.3% | 14.2% | |
| 12 | Tracy Steele Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 24-0 | 10.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 43.6% | 38.1% | 0.9 | 35.3% | 14.6% | |
| 23 | Terrion Burgess | F | Fr | 6'9" | 6-4 | 23.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 71.2% | 42.9% | 1.2 | 66.7% | 15.9% | |
| 1 | Joseph Thomas | G | So | 6'3" | 13-1 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 45.5% | 1.7 | 80.0% | 19.7% | |
| 5 | Christian Hughes | G | So | 6'2" | 9-5 | 15.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 18.4% | 14.3% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 9.9% | |
| 4 | Kellen Robinson | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Khasen Robinson | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | KK Robinson | G | Sr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Travonne Jackson | G | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
N'Western St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Micah Thomas | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-31 | 30.2 | 16.8 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 48.3% | 37.0% | 4.2 | 92.0% | 35.1% | |
| 11 | Chris Mubiru | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-28 | 26.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 50.6% | 27.7% | 2.9 | 84.9% | 16.2% | |
| 0 | Izzy Miles | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-19 | 24.4 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 49.6% | 39.7% | 2.3 | 72.7% | 27.8% | |
| 23 | Willie Williams | F | Sr | 6'6" | 26-26 | 29.8 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 62.0% | 50.0% | 0.2 | 44.4% | 19.8% | |
| 3 | Landyn Jumawan | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-20 | 20.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 39.6% | 27.4% | 3.9 | 77.1% | 17.8% | |
| 4 | CJ Larry | PG | Fr | 6'3" | 25-16 | 18.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 37.7% | 46.7% | 0.6 | 53.6% | 15.5% | |
| 10 | Kordrick Turner | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 13.7 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 53.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 59.7% | 18.9% | |
| 13 | Justin Redmond | G | So | 6'2" | 23-2 | 17.1 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 44.8% | 34.2% | 3.3 | 85.3% | 27.6% | |
| 1 | Chip Brunt | G | Jr | 6'5" | 29-2 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 58.2% | 53.8% | 0.4 | 73.0% | 18.3% | |
| 25 | Omar Adegbola | G | So | 6'4" | 21-2 | 14.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 44.5% | 28.1% | 1.5 | 82.5% | 24.4% | |
| 8 | Moustapha Loum | F | So | 6'10" | 21-4 | 11.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 61.8% | — | 0.0 | 36.4% | 13.7% | |
| 21 | J.C. Riley Jr. | C | Sr | 6'10" | 21-4 | 11.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 52.8% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 88.2% | 18.2% | |
| 33 | Quentin Bolton | G | Sr | 6'6" | 8-0 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 22.2% | 15.4% | 1.6 | — | 26.0% | |
| 15 | Seth Ned | G | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26N'Western St
Against the spread
Season
17-13
Home
8-4
Road
9-8
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +0.1
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-15
Home
4-8
Road
11-6
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −11.8
Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Nicholls | N | L 47–61 | +2.0 | L−12.0 | 139.0 | U108 | 79.8 | 103.5 | 58.9 |
| Mar 2 | UT Rio Grande | A | L 62–74 | +9.0 | L−3.0 | 139.0 | U136 | 96.0 | 114.6 | 64.6 |
| Feb 28 | Texas A&M-CC | A | L 59–71 | +6.0 | L−6.0 | 134.0 | U130 | 97.5 | 117.4 | 60.5 |
| Feb 23 | Incarnate Word | H | W 54–49 | −2.5 | W+2.5 | 138.0 | U103 | 89.9 | 81.6 | 60.1 |
| Feb 21 | Hou Christian | H | W 71–53 | −2.5 | W+15.5 | 133.5 | U124 | 112.1 | 83.6 | 63.4 |
| Feb 16 | McNeese | H | L 64–75 | +14.0 | W+3.0 | 137.5 | O139 | 100.9 | 118.2 | 63.5 |
| Feb 14 | SE Louisiana | H | W 69–66 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 131.0 | O135 | 110.4 | 105.6 | 62.5 |
| Feb 9 | Lamar | A | W 70–68 | +7.5 | W+9.5 | 136.5 | O138 | 106.1 | 103.1 | 66.0 |
| Feb 7 | East Texas A&M | A | L 48–52 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 141.5 | U100 | 72.1 | 78.1 | 66.5 |
| Feb 4 | East Texas A&M | H | L 68–74 | −3.0 | L−9.0 | 143.0 | U142 | 107.6 | 117.1 | 63.2 |
Little Rock
Against the spread
Season
12-18
Home
4-7
Road
8-10
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −0.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-15
Home
7-4
Road
8-10
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −2.4
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Lindenwood | N | L 62–72 | +4.5 | L−5.5 | 148.5 | U134 | 80.1 | 93.0 | 77.4 |
| Feb 28 | S Indiana | H | W 89–70 | −6.0 | W+13.0 | 139.5 | O159 | 132.8 | 104.5 | 67.0 |
| Feb 26 | Morehead St | H | L 70–76 | −2.5 | L−8.5 | 139.0 | O146 | 108.5 | 117.8 | 64.5 |
| Feb 21 | SE Missouri | H | L 65–70 | +2.5 | L−2.5 | 144.0 | U135 | 95.3 | 102.6 | 68.2 |
| Feb 19 | UT Martin | H | W 67–65 | +2.5 | W+4.5 | 136.0 | U132 | 112.3 | 109.0 | 59.6 |
| Feb 14 | E Illinois | A | L 72–78 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 135.5 | O150 | 108.4 | 117.5 | 66.4 |
| Feb 12 | W Illinois | A | W 77–58 | −7.5 | W+11.5 | 142.0 | U135 | 108.7 | 81.8 | 70.9 |
| Feb 7 | SIUE | H | L 61–71 | −1.5 | L−11.5 | 133.0 | U132 | 90.5 | 105.3 | 67.4 |
| Feb 5 | Lindenwood | H | L 74–79 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 150.5 | O153 | 109.2 | 116.6 | 67.8 |
| Feb 3 | UT Martin | A | L 52–55 | +6.5 | W+3.5 | 138.5 | U107 | 83.8 | 88.6 | 62.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeN'Western StLittle Rock
Efficiency
104.1
104.6
111.3
111.9
66.6
67.7
—
—
Shooting
48.6%
49.4%
48.0%
47.9%
33.2%
35.3%
74.0%
68.0%
40.1%
27.7%
Ball control & glass
18.3%
18.4%
16.9%
18.5%
26.1%
31.5%
32.6%
36.6%
10.6%
10.6%
9.6%
5.6%
Style
33.9%
31.0%
40.8%
47.2%
12.4%
16.2%
50.7%
52.2%
36.8%
20.6%
Roster
3.12
3.39
6'4"
6'6.5"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputN'Western St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Little Rock
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Little Rock's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.