Northern Iowa Panthers vs Oakland Golden Grizzlies basketball preview & prediction
Sat, Nov 14 · 5:00 PM ET · OU Credit Union O'rena, Rochester, MI
Non-conferenceESPN+OU Credit Union O'rena, Rochester, MI
Northern Iowa
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #113
@
Oakland
0-4 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #267
Sat, Nov 14 · 5:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Northern Iowa is the faster team (75.0, #66 of 365) and Oakland the slower (69.3, #227). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.7
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.8#231
Northern Iowa
69.4#262
Oakland
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Oakland has the ball+7.1
Northern Iowa has the ball+9.1
Oakland has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.8% #244 · UNI forces 12.0% #330 · ~10 turnovers+2.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 42.3% #114 · UNI allows 81.5% #359 · FT 70.8% #162+2.5
✓Shoots it welleFG% 43.6% #286 · UNI allows 62.0% #336+2.1
✗Few second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · UNI allows 28.6% #132−0.1
Northern Iowa has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.0% #24 · OAK forces 13.7% #295 · ~8 turnovers+5.4
✓Shoots it welleFG% 48.6% #202 · OAK allows 62.5% #339+5.1
✗Few second chancesOR% 26.2% #272 · OAK allows 33.3% #217−1.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 27.5% #283 · OAK allows 24.1% #40 · FT 84.2% #18−0.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootNorthern Iowaoffense vsOaklanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Northern Iowa shoots
38.3
6.7
11.7
43.3
Oakland allows
34.7
6.6
7.1
51.5
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.9%#136 | 72.1%#324 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 30.8%#119 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 28.6%#224 | 35.7%#187 | 34.7% |
| Three | 31.0%#209 | 42.6%#323 | 32.5% |
Oaklandoffense vsNorthern Iowadefense
Share of shots by zone
Oakland shoots
39.5
7.3
14.7
38.4
Northern Iowa allows
29.4
2.0
5.9
62.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 51.4%#255 | 53.3%#115 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.8%#224 | 100.0%#348 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 23.1%#267 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 26.5%#270 | 45.5%#344 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineNorthern Iowa
−14.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#345 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#272
Def reb %
71.4%
#132
Turnover %
12.0%
#24
Forced TO %
12.0%
#330
FT rate
27.5%
#283
FT allowed
81.5%
#359
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.8
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+4.4
Forcing turnovers−4.3
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed−11.3
Oakland
+0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#166 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#135
Def reb %
66.7%
#217
Turnover %
19.8%
#244
Forced TO %
13.7%
#295
FT rate
42.3%
#114
FT allowed
24.1%
#40
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−3.1
Foul shots drawn+1.3
Foul shots allowed+3.6
Oakland has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.7 (#166 of 365) to Northern Iowa’s −14.5 (#345).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notNorthern Iowa2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 28.0 | 16.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 40.4% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 84.6% | 30.0% | Active | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 27.0 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 61.8% | 35.7% | 7.0 | 0.0% | 16.9% | Active | |
| 8 | G | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 25.5 | 17.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 65.9% | 41.7% | 6.0 | 66.7% | 30.2% | Active | |
| 31 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 2-1 | 19.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 68.8% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 90.9% | 28.9% | Active | |
| 9 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-0 | 17.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 45.0% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 0.0% | 15.0% | Active | |
| 2 | G | So | 6'4" | 2-2 | 15.5 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 40.6% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 75.0% | 28.3% | Active | |
| 35 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 13.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 44.4% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 20.1% | Active | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 80.0% | 18.6% | Active | |
| 32 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 27.9% | Active | |
| 22 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 2-1 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 16.8% | Active | |
| 7 | F | So | 6'5" | 2-0 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 10.2% | Active | |
| 24 | F | So | 6'8" | 1-0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 62.5% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 50.0% | 20.7% | Missed last | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62.5% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 26.9% | Active | |
| 15 | G | Jr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 18.1% | Missed last |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesNorthern Iowa
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −9.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +30.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Furman | A | L 83–98 | +5.5 | L−9.5 | 150.5 | O181 | 110.7 | 130.7 | 75.0 |
| Nov 3 | Cornell (IA) Rams | H | W 106–70 | — | — | — | — | 118.8 | 78.4 | 89.3 |
| Mar 20 | #5St John's | N | L 53–79 | +10.5 | L−15.5 | 133.5 | U132 | 84.0 | 125.2 | 63.1 |
| Mar 8 | UIC | N | W 84–69 | −3.0 | W+12.0 | 124.5 | O153 | 141.8 | 116.5 | 59.2 |
| Mar 7 | Bradley | N | W 73–69 | −4.5 | L−0.5 | 126.5 | O142 | 115.3 | 108.9 | 63.3 |
| Mar 6 | Illinois St | N | W 74–52 | −2.0 | W+20.0 | 129.5 | U126 | 118.9 | 83.5 | 62.3 |
| Mar 5 | Evansville | N | W 68–59 | −15.0 | L−6.0 | 128.5 | U127 | 108.3 | 94.0 | 62.8 |
| Mar 1 | Drake | A | W 75–53 | −4.0 | W+18.0 | 137.5 | U128 | 119.1 | 84.2 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Illinois St | H | L 69–71 | −5.0 | L−7.0 | 132.0 | O140 | 111.1 | 114.3 | 62.1 |
| Feb 21 | S Illinois | H | L 57–59 | −6.5 | L−8.5 | 134.5 | U116 | 92.9 | 96.2 | 61.3 |
Oakland
Against the spread
Season
1-3
Home
0-0
Road
1-3
Last 10
1-3
avg cover −2.8
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 1 of 4 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
2-2
Home
0-0
Road
2-2
Last 10
2-2
avg vs total +1.5
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | #18Alabama | A | L 68–109 | +32.0 | L−9.0 | 171.0 | O177 | 95.3 | 152.8 | 71.3 |
| Nov 7 | Santa Barbara | A | L 67–90 | +13.5 | L−9.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 104.6 | 140.5 | 64.1 |
| Nov 6 | Stanford | A | L 63–81 | +15.0 | L−3.0 | 146.5 | U144 | 90.6 | 116.5 | 69.5 |
| Nov 2 | #16Michigan | A | L 68–84 | +26.5 | W+10.5 | 157.5 | U152 | 94.0 | 116.1 | 72.4 |
| Mar 4 | N Kentucky | H | L 84–85 | −2.0 | L−3.0 | 162.5 | O169 | 115.1 | 116.5 | 73.0 |
| Feb 28 | Detroit Mercy | H | L 89–95 | −8.0 | L−14.0 | 161.5 | O184 | 123.4 | 131.7 | 72.1 |
| Feb 25 | IU Indy | A | W 86–74 | −5.5 | W+6.5 | 167.5 | U160 | 118.5 | 101.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 22 | Milwaukee | H | W 81–70 | −6.5 | W+4.5 | 160.0 | U151 | 123.9 | 107.1 | 65.4 |
| Feb 20 | Green Bay | H | L 68–73 | −6.5 | L−11.5 | 153.5 | U141 | 107.8 | 115.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 15 | Robert Morris | A | L 69–93 | +1.5 | L−22.5 | 156.0 | O162 | 104.4 | 140.7 | 66.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNorthern IowaOakland
Efficiency
107.1
107.6
102.1
113.9
69.8
69.4
3.9
13.6
Shooting
48.6%
43.6%
50.0%
45.8%
31.0%
26.5%
84.2%
70.8%
27.5%
42.3%
Ball control & glass
12.0%
19.8%
12.0%
13.7%
26.2%
33.3%
28.6%
33.3%
8.0%
11.5%
7.5%
16.0%
Style
42.0%
36.6%
45.8%
44.4%
12.0%
9.0%
37.9%
37.5%
49.5%
40.0%
Roster
2.54
3.10
6'5.4"
6'5.9"
9.6%
9.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNorthern Iowa
Returning minutes: 9.6%Returning production: 5.7%
Lost
- Trey Campbell 33.5 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Utah
- Leon Bond III 32.8 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to Iowa State
- Ben Schwieger 27.8 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Will Hornseth 25.5 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Utah State
- Max Weisbrod 24.7 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to N Illinois
- Tristan Smith 16.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tate McCubbin from Austin Peay · 29.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- Greyson Uelmen from North Dakota · 27.8 mpg, 16.8 ppg last season
- Isaiah Johnson-Arigu from St Thomas · 20.7 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
- Carson Vis from W Michigan · 14.8 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
- Ian Smikle from Tulsa · 13.8 mpg, 3.1 ppg last season
- Jules Isebaert no D1 minutes last season
Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Oakland
Returning minutes: 9.9%Returning production: 7.7%
Lost
- Brody Robinson 35.8 mpg, 17.6 ppg · transferred to Creighton
- Tuburu Naivalurua 31.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ziare Wells 26.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Isaac Garrett 25.3 mpg, 12.0 ppg · transferred to High Point
- Brett White II 24.0 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Michael Houge 22.5 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Belal El Shakery from New Hampshire · 25.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Brady Swartz from W Michigan · 16.6 mpg, 6.2 ppg last season
- Chris Fields Jr. from Campbell · 14.8 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
- Josh Hill from Robert Morris · 11.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season
- RJ Taylor from Northern Iowa · 9.1 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
- Hamoudy Mashhour no D1 minutes last season
Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Dec 13 | 2025-26 | Oakland 63 – 75 Northern Iowa |
More games on Sat, Nov 14
- UNC Greensboro at Cornell · 11:00 AM ET
- Tulane at Akron · 12:00 PM ET
- St Thomas at Army · 1:00 PM ET
- Stonehill at Texas Tech · 1:00 PM ET
- Bradley vs George Mason · 1:00 PM ET
- Towson vs Morgan St · 1:00 PM ET
- Montana at North Dakota · 1:00 PM ET
- Drexel at Maine · 1:00 PM ET
- Loyola Chicago at Colorado St · 1:30 PM ET
- Miami OH at Evansville · 2:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at South Carolina · 2:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at South Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Bellarmine · 2:00 PM ET
- Rice at SF Austin · 2:00 PM ET
- The Citadel at North Florida · 2:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Queens · 2:00 PM ET
- Jackson St at Winthrop · 2:30 PM ET
- C Michigan at N Kentucky · 3:30 PM ET
- LSU at Gonzaga · 3:30 PM ET
- Southern Utah at Wake Forest · 4:00 PM ET
- Lafayette at St Bonaventure · 4:00 PM ET
- Air Force at Pacific · 4:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at East Carolina · 4:00 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at Georgia Tech · 4:00 PM ET
- Hampton at Navy · 4:00 PM ET
- Longwood at Old Dominion · 4:00 PM ET
- Wyoming at Denver · 4:00 PM ET
- S Dakota St vs N Colorado · 4:00 PM ET
- Toledo at Detroit Mercy · 4:00 PM ET
- SC Upstate at Campbell · 4:30 PM ET
- Utah Tech at California · 5:00 PM ET
- Colorado at Providence · 6:00 PM ET
- Manhattan at Le Moyne · 6:00 PM ET
- Marshall at Youngstown St · 6:00 PM ET
- South Alabama at North Texas · 6:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at Fresno St · 6:00 PM ET
- Penn at Saint Joseph's · 6:30 PM ET
- Brown at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Austin Peay at Wichita St · 7:00 PM ET
- UAB at Jax State · 7:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at W Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at Fairfield · 7:00 PM ET
- Portland St at San Francisco · 7:00 PM ET
- Washington at Utah · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- UT Rio Grande at UT Arlington · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard at Davidson · 7:00 PM ET
- Louisiana at UNC Wilmington · 7:00 PM ET
- Cincinnati at Dayton · 7:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Morehead St · 7:30 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Grand Canyon · 8:00 PM ET
- UC Davis at Sacramento St · 8:00 PM ET
- Louisiana Tech at Nicholls · 8:00 PM ET
- N'Western St at Little Rock · 8:00 PM ET
- Furman at Belmont · 8:30 PM ET
- Utah Valley at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Seattle U · 10:00 PM ET
- New Mexico at Santa Clara · 10:00 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.