CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCajundome, Lafayette, LA
Hou Christian
Efficiency #297
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-15 conf
@
Louisiana
Efficiency #318
2025-26: 11-22 · 8-12 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · 8:00 PM ET
66.1
win 42%
Projected
68.5
win 58%
No line posted yet.
Model: UL −2.4 · total 134.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Louisiana 65.6, Hou Christian 66.2 → 63.5 possessions
−10.4
Louisiana offense vs Hou Christian defense
−2.2
Hou Christian offense vs Louisiana defense
−0.9
Projected total
134.7
Axis starts at 125 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Louisiana offense vs Hou Christian defense
−2.2
Hou Christian offense vs Louisiana defense
+0.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Louisiana by 2.4
2.4
Hou Christian side ◂▸ Louisiana side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Louisiana.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 63.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Hou Christian is the faster team (64.4, #344 of 365) and Louisiana the slower (64.1, #354). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
63.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
134.7
model
Projected team totals
66.1 / 68.5
Hou Christian / Louisiana
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.2#335
Hou Christian
65.6#353
Louisiana

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Louisiana averages 64.1 possessions per 40, Hou Christian 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 62 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageHou Christian
Where Hou Christian struggles: ball control
Hou Christian turns it over on 18.9% of possessions (#315); Louisiana forces turnovers on 18.3% of opponent possessions (#85). Expect about 18.9%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.
ClashLouisiana
Style clash: paint scoring
Louisiana gets only 34.8% of its points in the paint; Hou Christian gives up 47.2% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Hou Christian has the ball
OffenseLouisiana allowsvs D1 avg
49.7% #252
52.6% #247
-0.3 pt/100
18.9% #315
18.3% #85
-2.7 pt/100
29.9% #205
32.3% #272
+0.3 pt/100
36.0% #151
45.8% #352
+0.9 pt/100
69.4% #288
—
-0.3 pt/100
Hou Christian net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.0 pts/100
Louisiana has the ball
OffenseHou Christian allowsvs D1 avg
47.1% #334
54.2% #304
-1.3 pt/100
16.8% #185
17.6% #117
-0.6 pt/100
28.3% #251
32.5% #279
-0.3 pt/100
28.7% #334
30.7% #79
-0.7 pt/100
70.4% #261
—
-0.2 pt/100
Louisiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Hou Christianoffense vsLouisianadefense
Share of shots by zone
Hou Christian shoots
Louisiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.2%#26558.4%#16158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.7%#20243.5%#25939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.2%#28332.4%#2038.0%
Three31.7%#29135.6%#28633.7%
Louisianaoffense vsHou Christiandefense
Share of shots by zone
Louisiana shoots
Hou Christian allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.4%#35263.2%#33058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.5%#9233.0%#3039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.6%#19739.5%#21938.0%
Three33.6%#18935.0%#24833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Hou Christian
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#187 of 365
Off reb %
29.9%
#205
Def reb %
67.5%
#279
Turnover %
18.9%
#315
Forced TO %
17.6%
#117
FT rate
36.0%
#151
FT allowed
30.7%
#79
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Louisiana
−4.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#338 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#251
Def reb %
67.7%
#272
Turnover %
16.8%
#185
Forced TO %
18.3%
#85
FT rate
28.7%
#334
FT allowed
45.8%
#352
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed−2.7

Hou Christian has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#187 of 365) to Louisiana’s −4.4 (#338).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Hou Christian2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Hou Christian's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Kylin GreenGSr6'0"32-3031.110.33.84.52.540.5%27.4%2.673.7%26.4%
8Trent JohnsonFSr6'6"32-2730.88.23.42.41.259.6%40.3%4.081.7%15.3%
1Ryan BartleyGSr6'6"32-2229.49.12.71.31.049.8%32.3%4.277.8%20.4%
23Demarco BetheaFSr6'7"32-2825.810.04.91.21.757.3%0.0%0.357.5%24.6%
5D'Aundre SamuelsGJr6'2"32-1322.48.63.32.01.747.8%33.1%3.977.8%28.2%
0Demari WilliamsGJr6'5"29-1522.09.73.20.91.251.3%30.9%1.979.4%27.1%
21Mambourou MaraFJr6'6"31-1419.35.43.80.71.246.4%21.3%2.055.6%21.5%
4Elijah BrooksGSr6'3"8-830.412.34.53.12.644.5%20.0%1.958.1%32.3%
7Nehikhare IgiehonFSr6'7"19-210.43.62.20.30.656.9%0.0%0.150.0%21.9%
10Caleb GastonFJr6'7"23-05.00.70.70.10.333.3%0.0%0.450.0%15.0%
13Ahjany LeeFJr6'8"18-05.11.31.00.10.281.8%—0.062.5%11.8%
24Bryson MonroeGSr6'1"12-13.30.20.10.00.225.0%0.0%0.2—9.0%
9Obadiah CurtisGSr6'4"4-09.02.81.80.00.836.4%33.3%1.575.0%24.2%
2Will WilsonGSr6'3"1-06.02.00.00.01.0——0.0100.0%17.3%
32Brennen ByrdFFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Hou ChristianLouisiana
Efficiency
104.6
101.8
111.7
110.9
66.2
65.6
—
—
Shooting
49.7%
47.1%
50.9%
44.8%
31.7%
33.6%
69.4%
70.4%
36.0%
28.7%
Ball control & glass
18.9%
16.8%
17.6%
18.3%
29.9%
28.3%
32.5%
32.3%
10.6%
7.8%
9.9%
8.0%
Style
36.5%
40.5%
46.6%
34.8%
12.1%
10.5%
58.7%
45.9%
27.5%
33.1%
Roster
3.66
2.41
6'4.6"
6'5.1"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Hou Christian
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Hou Christian's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Louisiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Louisiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.