CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameCredit Union 1 Arena, Chicago, IL
Valparaiso
Efficiency #176
2025-26: 18-15 · 12-10 conf
@
UIC
Efficiency #99
2025-26: 19-16 · 14-9 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
67.1
win 29%
Projected
73.5
win 71%
No line posted yet.
Model: UIC −6.4 · total 140.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UIC 67.7, Valparaiso 66.9 → 66.3 possessions
−4.5
UIC offense vs Valparaiso defense
−0.3
Valparaiso offense vs UIC defense
−2.9
Projected total
140.6
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UIC offense vs Valparaiso defense
−0.3
Valparaiso offense vs UIC defense
+2.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
UIC by 6.4
6.4
Valparaiso side ◂▸ UIC side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 140.5 against a projected 140.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UIC.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UIC is the faster team (67.1, #241 of 365) and Valparaiso the slower (66.1, #290). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.6
model
Projected team totals
67.1 / 73.5
Valparaiso / UIC
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.9#297
Valparaiso
67.7#234
UIC

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageValparaiso
Where Valparaiso struggles: shooting
Valparaiso shoots an effective 47.6% (#322); UIC allows 50.5% (#125). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
UIC averages 67.1 possessions per 40, Valparaiso 66.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageUIC
Where UIC scores: the offensive glass
UIC rebounds 36.3% of its own misses (#22); Valparaiso lets opponents grab 30.1% of their own misses (#167). Expect about 34.4%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversValparaiso
Valparaiso turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.0% is worth roughly -1.5 points per 100 possessions against Valparaiso's offense.
ClashUIC
Style match: paint scoring
UIC scores 48.4% of its points in the paint; Valparaiso gives up 47.5% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.8% — both habits push the same way.
ClashValparaiso
Style match: paint scoring
Valparaiso gets only 36.8% of its points in the paint; UIC protects the paint (38.5% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 39.8% — both habits push the same way.
Valparaiso has the ball
OffenseUIC allowsvs D1 avg
47.6% #322
50.5% #125
-3.6 pt/100
15.7% #115
19.7% #31
-1.5 pt/100
32.5% #110
32.0% #255
+1.3 pt/100
39.1% #79
33.9% #149
+0.2 pt/100
70.9% #244
—
-0.1 pt/100
Valparaiso net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.8 pts/100
UIC has the ball
OffenseValparaiso allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #245
50.5% #130
-1.7 pt/100
17.6% #243
16.9% #161
-0.7 pt/100
36.3% #22
30.1% #167
+2.4 pt/100
36.2% #145
35.1% #179
+0.1 pt/100
72.5% #186
—
+0.0 pt/100
UIC net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Valparaisooffense vsUICdefense
Share of shots by zone
Valparaiso shoots
UIC allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.3%#25857.9%#14458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.7%#32032.6%#2539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.8%#23739.9%#23938.0%
Three33.9%#18033.4%#14733.7%
UICoffense vsValparaisodefense
Share of shots by zone
UIC shoots
Valparaiso allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.2%#22161.7%#29358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.1%#6341.3%#21739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.1%#21929.6%#438.0%
Three31.6%#30032.1%#7033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Valparaiso
+2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#61 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#110
Def reb %
69.9%
#167
Turnover %
15.7%
#115
Forced TO %
16.9%
#161
FT rate
39.1%
#79
FT allowed
35.1%
#179
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed0.0
UIC
+3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#46 of 365
Off reb %
36.3%
#22
Def reb %
68.0%
#255
Turnover %
17.6%
#243
Forced TO %
19.7%
#31
FT rate
36.2%
#145
FT allowed
33.9%
#149
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn+0.3
Foul shots allowed+0.3

UIC has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.6 (#46 of 365) to Valparaiso’s +2.8 (#61).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Valparaiso2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Valparaiso's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Rakim ChaneyGFr6'3"33-3128.210.33.42.81.649.3%35.9%5.173.9%24.7%
7JT PettigrewFFr6'8"33-3127.712.56.81.81.841.9%28.2%2.474.3%31.5%
12Owen DeaseFSr6'8"32-2227.812.83.21.31.353.2%40.8%3.982.6%27.3%
23Shon TupuolaCJr6'10"33-3324.66.45.80.80.958.0%0.0%0.065.5%15.4%
3Brody WhitakerGSr6'3"31-2425.99.12.71.50.753.2%44.2%3.183.6%20.3%
1Justus McNairGSo6'3"32-318.07.91.81.00.949.5%34.8%2.174.4%27.5%
13Carter HopoiFFr6'11"33-214.93.82.40.60.647.0%20.0%0.848.4%18.5%
11Isaiah BarnesGSr6'7"29-1313.33.81.80.50.740.3%25.6%1.569.7%22.4%
10Mark Brown Jr.GJr6'0"22-614.03.01.11.30.729.3%23.3%2.761.1%22.4%
44Sader ServilusGFr6'4"25-010.62.62.60.70.548.9%26.1%0.957.6%17.3%
35Tucker TornattaCSo6'8"26-09.23.32.20.50.950.9%35.7%0.560.5%25.4%
22Kyonte ThomasGSr6'0"27-03.40.30.20.10.144.4%0.0%0.10.0%8.4%
32Nick LombardiGSo6'0"5-01.20.00.20.00.00.0%—0.0—9.9%
20Joe VickGSr6'3"4-01.30.50.80.50.050.0%0.0%0.3—23.2%
5Camden WebsterGFr6'3"4-01.01.30.50.30.062.5%33.3%0.8—58.7%
4Jayden WatsonFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Kobe WalkerCFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
ValparaisoUIC
Efficiency
107.3
109.3
107.3
105.4
66.9
67.7
—
—
Shooting
47.6%
49.8%
45.8%
51.0%
33.9%
31.6%
70.9%
72.5%
39.1%
36.2%
Ball control & glass
15.7%
17.6%
16.9%
19.7%
32.5%
36.3%
30.1%
32.0%
7.4%
9.5%
8.5%
10.3%
Style
36.8%
32.8%
36.8%
48.4%
7.1%
14.2%
48.8%
53.6%
34.9%
39.3%
Roster
2.43
2.51
6'6"
6'5.1"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Valparaiso
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Valparaiso's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UIC
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UIC's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Feb 212025-26Valparaiso 71 – 67 UIC
Sun, Jan 42025-26UIC 59 – 66 Valparaiso

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.