CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBrooklyn Athletic Center, Brooklyn, NY
Cornell
Efficiency #135
2025-26: 15-13 · 8-7 conf
@
Long Island
Efficiency #195
2025-26: 24-11 · 18-3 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
80.2
win 43%
Projected
82.2
win 57%
No line posted yet.
Model: LIU −2.0 · total 162.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Long Island 68.6, Cornell 70.9 → 71.2 possessions
+6.3
Long Island offense vs Cornell defense
+2.9
Cornell offense vs Long Island defense
+5.0
Projected total
162.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Long Island offense vs Cornell defense
+2.9
Cornell offense vs Long Island defense
−5.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Long Island by 2.0
2.0
Cornell side ◂▸ Long Island side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 162.4 against a projected 162.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Long Island.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cornell is the faster team (71.3, #40 of 365) and Long Island the slower (68.2, #190). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
162.5
model
Projected team totals
80.2 / 82.2
Cornell / Long Island
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.9#19
Cornell
68.6#152
Long Island

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageCornell
Where Cornell scores: shooting
Cornell shoots an effective 58.5% (#7); Long Island allows 50.0% (#102). Expect about 54.8%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLong Island
Where Long Island scores: shooting
Long Island shoots an effective 52.8% (#112); Cornell allows 55.9% (#343). Expect about 54.5%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.6 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseLong Island
Long Island's shot-blocking
Long Island ranks #16 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.5% of Cornell's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Cornell, Cornell's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Cornell at about 44.9% of its shots from three, Long Island about 30.6%.
ClashCornell
Style clash: 3-point volume
Cornell takes 51.6% of its shots from three; Long Island runs teams off the line (32.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 44.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
GlassLong Island
Long Island owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.0% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for Long Island's offense.
Cornell has the ball
OffenseLong Island allowsvs D1 avg
58.5% #7
50.0% #102
+5.1 pt/100
16.0% #139
18.8% #58
-1.0 pt/100
30.2% #193
33.0% #299
+0.7 pt/100
30.2% #304
34.7% #171
-0.3 pt/100
74.1% #124
—
+0.2 pt/100
Cornell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.6 pts/100
Long Island has the ball
OffenseCornell allowsvs D1 avg
52.8% #112
55.9% #343
+4.6 pt/100
18.9% #318
15.1% #279
-0.2 pt/100
33.9% #70
30.6% #187
+1.6 pt/100
34.0% #207
37.2% #244
+0.1 pt/100
66.7% #346
—
-0.5 pt/100
Long Island net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Cornelloffense vsLong Islanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Cornell shoots
Long Island allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.8%#7755.3%#7058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)51.5%#749.1%#35039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.5%#3140.4%#25638.0%
Three38.3%#1432.2%#7233.7%
Long Islandoffense vsCornelldefense
Share of shots by zone
Long Island shoots
Cornell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.7%#13360.7%#25658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.8%#22444.6%#28539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.7%#16241.7%#29338.0%
Three35.8%#6737.5%#34933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Cornell
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#281 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#193
Def reb %
69.4%
#187
Turnover %
16.0%
#139
Forced TO %
15.1%
#279
FT rate
30.2%
#304
FT allowed
37.2%
#244
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Long Island
+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#172 of 365
Off reb %
33.9%
#70
Def reb %
67.0%
#299
Turnover %
18.9%
#318
Forced TO %
18.8%
#58
FT rate
34.0%
#207
FT allowed
34.7%
#171
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.8
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.1

Long Island has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.2 (#172 of 365) to Cornell’s −2.4 (#281).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Cornell2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
31Cooper NoardGSr6'2"28-2827.518.23.32.01.661.6%37.6%7.690.3%31.6%
8Adam HintonGSr6'4"28-2824.612.53.11.91.359.1%41.5%4.877.6%26.1%
5Jacob BecclesGJr6'3"28-2723.47.72.53.11.352.9%32.8%2.267.3%19.8%
22Jake FiegenGSr6'4"24-1726.117.15.12.11.264.9%41.4%5.577.2%30.4%
21Kaspar SeppFJr6'7"28-1518.84.85.52.61.350.5%23.8%0.866.0%17.2%
24Josh BaldwinGSr6'5"26-1319.07.44.13.21.752.2%33.9%2.370.0%24.9%
7Anthony NimaniGSo6'4"22-017.35.41.61.91.065.5%52.0%1.184.6%16.4%
23DJ NixFSr6'6"27-1112.33.51.71.10.753.8%37.3%1.956.3%17.4%
4Gioacchino PanziniFSo6'5"26-010.83.92.00.60.577.6%50.0%0.957.1%15.9%
14Corbin ZentnerGSr5'9"24-111.63.30.90.80.357.8%38.6%2.466.7%14.6%
0DaMaryon FishburnGJr6'5"21-08.62.52.01.50.783.3%58.3%0.657.1%14.2%
10Mateen RafiqGSo6'0"18-09.34.31.31.50.366.4%46.3%2.371.4%20.2%
2Ian ImegwuFJr6'9"15-05.74.91.30.90.269.2%48.9%3.050.0%34.4%
3Jax AbalosFFr6'8"12-06.42.80.40.30.253.6%27.3%1.880.0%21.7%
55AJ LaBeauFJr6'10"10-04.10.71.21.00.533.3%0.0%0.133.3%19.3%
12Ryan BurbachGFr6'3"5-08.22.61.60.20.431.6%15.4%2.6100.0%27.3%
11Ty IwanonkiwFSo6'9"3-07.74.01.00.70.066.7%44.4%3.0—19.2%
13AJ RodriguezGSo6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Blake LecklitnerFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Elijah GriffinGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CornellLong Island
Efficiency
116.2
106.8
114.3
107.8
70.9
68.6
—
—
Shooting
58.5%
52.8%
59.7%
52.4%
38.3%
35.8%
74.1%
66.7%
30.2%
34.0%
Ball control & glass
16.0%
18.9%
15.1%
18.8%
30.2%
33.9%
30.6%
33.0%
9.1%
10.4%
9.6%
8.6%
Style
51.6%
29.3%
38.9%
51.9%
14.4%
19.4%
66.7%
50.2%
41.9%
24.1%
Roster
3.37
3.38
6'3.9"
6'5.5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Cornell
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Long Island
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Long Island's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.