CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceGallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK

Grand Canyon

Efficiency #65

2025-26: 20-12 · 13-8 conf

Oklahoma St

Efficiency #89

2025-26: 20-15 · 7-13 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · TBD

76.6

win 43%

Projected

78.6

win 57%

No line posted yet.

Model: OKST −2.0 · total 155.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Oklahoma St 71.7, Grand Canyon 68.8 → 72.1 possessions

+8.2

Oklahoma St offense vs Grand Canyon defense

−1.7

Grand Canyon offense vs Oklahoma St defense

+0.4

Projected total

155.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Oklahoma St offense vs Grand Canyon defense

−1.7

Grand Canyon offense vs Oklahoma St defense

−0.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Oklahoma St by 2.0

2.0

Grand Canyon side ◂▸ Oklahoma St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.1 against a projected 155.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Oklahoma St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Oklahoma St is the faster team (74.0, #6 of 365) and Grand Canyon the slower (69.0, #150). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

72.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

155.2

model

Projected team totals

76.6 / 78.6

Grand Canyon / Oklahoma St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.8#139

Grand Canyon

71.7#8

Oklahoma St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

Oklahoma St averages 74.0 possessions per 40, Grand Canyon 69.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageOklahoma St

Where Oklahoma St struggles: shooting

Oklahoma St shoots an effective 52.0% (#144); Grand Canyon allows 47.4% (#28). Expect about 49.7%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageGrand Canyon

Where Grand Canyon scores: shooting

Grand Canyon shoots an effective 51.7% (#162); Oklahoma St allows 53.1% (#272). Expect about 52.4%, 1.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

Grand Canyon has the ball

OffenseOklahoma St allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #162

53.1% #272

+1.6 pt/100

17.6% #246

15.6% #243

+0.3 pt/100

31.3% #150

30.4% #178

+0.4 pt/100

39.5% #67

31.5% #96

+0.0 pt/100

75.3% #72

—

+0.3 pt/100

Grand Canyon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Oklahoma St has the ball

OffenseGrand Canyon allowsvs D1 avg

52.0% #144

47.4% #28

-2.2 pt/100

15.8% #120

17.3% #129

+0.3 pt/100

30.8% #169

25.3% #12

-1.3 pt/100

39.4% #70

39.0% #285

+0.6 pt/100

74.5% #102

—

+0.2 pt/100

Oklahoma St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Grand Canyonoffense vsOklahoma Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Grand Canyon shoots

41.1

4.2

16.2

38.5

Oklahoma St allows

40.1

5.1

12.4

42.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#104	57.2%#120	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.4%#345	48.5%#344	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.7%#240	36.9%#129	38.0%
Three	31.8%#286	36.0%#304	33.7%

Oklahoma Stoffense vsGrand Canyondefense

Share of shots by zone

Oklahoma St shoots

48.2

4.5

12.5

34.7

Grand Canyon allows

36.3

5.9

19.8

38.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.4%#180	51.6%#12	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.4%#295	34.4%#50	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.5%#248	42.6%#320	38.0%
Three	33.9%#176	31.9%#60	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Grand Canyon

+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#96 of 365

Off reb %

31.3%

#150

Def reb %

74.7%

#12

Turnover %

17.6%

#246

Forced TO %

17.3%

#129

FT rate

39.5%

#67

FT allowed

39.0%

#285

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding+1.7

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers+0.4

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−1.0

Oklahoma St

+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#87 of 365

Off reb %

30.8%

#169

Def reb %

69.6%

#178

Turnover %

15.8%

#120

Forced TO %

15.6%

#243

FT rate

39.4%

#70

FT allowed

31.5%

#96

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.0

Oklahoma St has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#87 of 365) to Grand Canyon’s +2.0 (#96).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Grand Canyon2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Nana Owusu-Anane	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	32.5	9.3	8.5	1.8	1.2	52.1%	35.9%	3.7	72.6%	17.2%
2	Makaih Williams	G	Jr	6'2"	32-20	27.1	14.0	2.7	2.5	1.7	51.3%	33.5%	5.2	78.6%	30.3%
5	Brian Moore Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	29-28	27.6	9.5	2.4	2.6	1.6	54.0%	40.8%	1.7	69.7%	20.7%
8	Dusty Stromer	G	Jr	6'6"	32-5	22.6	6.4	2.7	1.1	1.0	45.7%	33.3%	3.6	80.0%	19.1%
17	Efe Demirel	C	Fr	7'1"	32-28	22.5	8.5	5.3	0.3	1.3	63.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.0%
11	Caleb Shaw	G	Jr	6'6"	21-11	20.9	7.8	3.8	1.4	1.3	58.8%	37.0%	3.5	64.7%	21.7%
32	Wilhelm Breidenbach	F	Sr	6'10"	29-4	12.4	2.7	2.3	0.7	0.6	41.3%	13.3%	1.0	80.6%	15.3%
14	Dennis Evans	C	Fr	7'2"	24-0	8.8	2.8	2.0	0.0	0.4	66.7%	—	0.0	75.0%	15.8%
22	Kaleb Smith	F	Jr	6'10"	21-0	8.4	1.4	1.2	0.3	0.4	21.1%	10.5%	0.9	77.8%	17.6%
9	Evan Boisdur	G	Fr	6'1"	13-0	5.6	1.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	33.3%	16.7%	0.9	75.0%	21.2%
23	Cole Pepe	G	Fr	6'4"	6-0	1.7	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	17.1%
3	Braylon Johnson	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Jack Sawyer	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Luke Shaw	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Oklahoma St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Oklahoma St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Kanye Clary	G	Jr	6'0"	34-31	28.2	10.6	2.9	4.6	2.0	46.2%	35.5%	3.6	80.7%	23.4%
9	Anthony Roy	G	Sr	6'5"	31-25	28.7	16.9	4.1	1.3	1.6	55.5%	39.0%	7.5	85.7%	29.4%
4	Christian Coleman	G	Sr	6'8"	34-26	25.3	10.3	5.6	1.0	1.2	53.7%	27.1%	1.7	66.7%	22.4%
5	Vyctorius Miller	G	So	6'5"	32-26	25.5	10.8	2.7	1.8	1.6	50.8%	37.5%	3.8	85.7%	23.1%
0	Jaylen Curry	G	Jr	6'1"	33-7	23.8	10.1	3.2	3.5	1.4	46.3%	31.6%	2.4	80.6%	25.1%
22	Parsa Fallah	F	Sr	6'10"	26-26	26.4	14.7	6.0	0.8	1.3	62.3%	40.0%	1.2	68.0%	26.1%
21	Isaiah Coleman	G	Jr	6'5"	33-5	19.2	6.4	3.8	0.8	1.2	50.0%	8.0%	0.8	57.1%	20.7%
19	Andrija Vukovic	F	So	6'11"	27-3	15.2	5.3	3.4	0.6	0.7	62.8%	33.3%	0.1	69.0%	16.7%
24	Ryan Crotty	G	Fr	6'6"	28-10	10.1	2.5	1.5	0.5	0.2	42.9%	29.6%	1.9	75.0%	14.8%
23	Benjamin Ahmed	C	Fr	6'10"	21-7	12.6	4.9	3.6	0.2	0.9	55.4%	—	0.0	56.6%	22.4%
72	Lefteris Mantzoukas	F	Fr	6'9"	12-6	17.8	4.4	4.2	0.5	1.0	44.6%	24.2%	2.8	60.0%	17.0%
8	Daniel Guetta	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	9.5	2.0	0.7	0.8	1.1	52.8%	14.3%	0.6	60.0%	16.0%
13	Mekhi Ragland	F	Fr	6'11"	14-0	5.6	1.4	1.6	0.2	0.1	34.6%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	19.3%
7	Kirk Cole	G	Sr	6'1"	12-0	4.5	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	46.2%	33.3%	1.0	—	13.2%
25	Robert Jennings II	F	Sr	6'7"	3-3	12.7	3.7	4.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	50.0%	0.7	50.0%	18.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Grand Canyon2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Nana Owusu-Anane	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	32.5	9.3	8.5	1.8	1.2	52.1%	35.9%	3.7	72.6%	17.2%
2	Makaih Williams	G	Jr	6'2"	32-20	27.1	14.0	2.7	2.5	1.7	51.3%	33.5%	5.2	78.6%	30.3%
5	Brian Moore Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	29-28	27.6	9.5	2.4	2.6	1.6	54.0%	40.8%	1.7	69.7%	20.7%
8	Dusty Stromer	G	Jr	6'6"	32-5	22.6	6.4	2.7	1.1	1.0	45.7%	33.3%	3.6	80.0%	19.1%
17	Efe Demirel	C	Fr	7'1"	32-28	22.5	8.5	5.3	0.3	1.3	63.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.0%
11	Caleb Shaw	G	Jr	6'6"	21-11	20.9	7.8	3.8	1.4	1.3	58.8%	37.0%	3.5	64.7%	21.7%
32	Wilhelm Breidenbach	F	Sr	6'10"	29-4	12.4	2.7	2.3	0.7	0.6	41.3%	13.3%	1.0	80.6%	15.3%
14	Dennis Evans	C	Fr	7'2"	24-0	8.8	2.8	2.0	0.0	0.4	66.7%	—	0.0	75.0%	15.8%
22	Kaleb Smith	F	Jr	6'10"	21-0	8.4	1.4	1.2	0.3	0.4	21.1%	10.5%	0.9	77.8%	17.6%
9	Evan Boisdur	G	Fr	6'1"	13-0	5.6	1.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	33.3%	16.7%	0.9	75.0%	21.2%
23	Cole Pepe	G	Fr	6'4"	6-0	1.7	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	17.1%
3	Braylon Johnson	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Jack Sawyer	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Luke Shaw	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Grand Canyon

Against the spread

Season

17-15

Home

9-8

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

7-10

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +3.1

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	NevadaAdjEM #71	N	L 80–84	−3.5	L−7.5	137.5	O164	113.6	119.3	70.4
Mar 7	Fresno StAdjEM #169	H	W 85–60	−12.5	W+12.5	150.0	U145	117.0	82.6	72.7
Mar 3	Air ForceAdjEM #360	A	W 86–60	−19.0	W+7.0	143.0	O146	125.3	87.4	68.7
Feb 28	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 69–74	+9.5	W+4.5	148.0	U143	108.5	116.4	63.6
Feb 25	UNLVAdjEM #124	H	W 80–67	−7.5	W+5.5	150.5	U147	115.1	96.4	69.5
Feb 21	WyomingAdjEM #98	H	L 65–70	−8.5	L−13.5	144.5	U135	96.3	103.7	67.5
Feb 17	San Diego StAdjEM #53	A	W 73–63	+8.0	W+18.0	139.0	U136	102.5	88.4	71.2
Feb 14	San José StAdjEM #282	A	W 94–79	−11.5	W+3.5	139.0	O173	144.7	121.6	65.0
Feb 11	New MexicoAdjEM #42	H	L 64–70	−1.5	L−7.5	149.0	U134	93.4	102.1	68.5
Feb 7	UNLVAdjEM #124	A	L 78–80	−3.5	L−5.5	149.0	O158	108.6	111.4	71.8

Oklahoma St

Against the spread

Season

15-19-1

Home

8-13

Road

5-5

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −2.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

21-14

Home

14-7

Road

4-6

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +11.9

Over 8 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	Wichita StAdjEM #60	H	L 70–96	−2.5	L−28.5	163.0	O166	95.1	130.5	73.6
Mar 17	DavidsonAdjEM #112	H	W 84–80	−6.5	L−2.5	154.0	O164	114.6	109.2	73.3
Mar 11	TCUAdjEM #51	N	L 88–95	+7.0	P0.0	158.0	O183	127.6	137.8	69.0
Mar 10	ColoradoAdjEM #91	N	W 92–83	+1.0	W+10.0	165.0	O175	125.8	113.5	73.1
Mar 7	#7HoustonAdjEM #6	H	L 75–82	+13.5	W+6.5	150.5	O157	112.1	122.6	66.9
Mar 3	UCFAdjEM #70	A	W 111–104 OT	+8.5	W+15.5	168.5	O215	127.3	119.3	87.2
Feb 28	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	A	L 68–91	+9.5	L−13.5	152.5	O159	94.7	126.7	71.8
Feb 24	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	H	W 91–84 OT	+1.0	W+8.0	143.5	O175	125.1	115.4	72.8
Feb 21	ColoradoAdjEM #91	A	L 69–83	+3.5	L−10.5	162.5	U152	95.6	114.9	72.2
Feb 18	#8KansasAdjEM #25	H	L 69–81	+6.5	L−5.5	159.5	U150	98.2	115.2	70.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Grand CanyonOklahoma St

Efficiency

109.0

113.1

101.5

108.6

68.8

71.7

—

Shooting

51.7%

52.0%

54.2%

52.6%

31.8%

33.9%

75.3%

74.5%

39.5%

39.4%

Ball control & glass

17.6%

15.8%

17.3%

15.6%

31.3%

30.8%

25.3%

30.4%

9.3%

9.1%

7.9%

10.3%

Style

38.9%

35.5%

43.2%

45.9%

13.9%

15.5%

49.6%

50.4%

29.1%

35.8%

Roster

3.03

2.92

6'6.7"

6'5.4"

84.3%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Grand Canyon

Returning minutes: 84.3%Returning production: 79.1%

Lost

Jaden Henley 31.5 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Luke Shaw no D1 minutes last season
Jack Sawyer no D1 minutes last season
Braylon Johnson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Oklahoma St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Oklahoma St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 6	2025-26	Oklahoma St 84 – 78 Grand Canyon(N)

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.