CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceYuengling Center, Tampa, FL

West Florida

Efficiency #352

Record unknown

South Florida

Efficiency #36

2025-26: 25-9 · 17-3 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · TBD

65.9

win 3%

Projected

88.4

win 97%

No line posted yet.

Model: USF −22.5 · total 154.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: South Florida 71.0, West Florida 68.3 → 71.0 possessions

+5.9

South Florida offense vs West Florida defense

+9.3

West Florida offense vs South Florida defense

−9.1

Projected total

154.3

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

South Florida offense vs West Florida defense

+9.3

West Florida offense vs South Florida defense

+9.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

South Florida by 22.5

22.5

West Florida side ◂▸ South Florida side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Florida.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo.

Projected possessions

71.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.3

model

Projected team totals

65.9 / 88.4

West Florida / South Florida

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.3#183

West Florida

71.0#15

South Florida

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

South Florida

+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#18 of 365

Off reb %

38.1%

Def reb %

68.1%

#252

Turnover %

15.1%

#74

Forced TO %

19.1%

#42

FT rate

40.4%

#55

FT allowed

39.1%

#287

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.5

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.7

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.0

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

West Florida2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted West Florida's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	eFG%	3P%	FT%	Usage
—	Team	ATH	—	—	0-0	—	—	—	—
14	Brandon Burford	PG	So	6'2"	0-0	—	—	—	—
34	Conor Flanagan	G	So	6'8"	0-0	—	—	—	—
1	Darrin Jenkins	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	—	—	—	—
11	David Petit-Homme	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	—	—	—	—
42	Jackson Henningfield	G	Sr	6'9"	0-0	—	—	—	—
2	Kendall Bynum	PG	Fr	6'1"	0-0	—	—	—	—
3	LaTrell Tate	G	So	6'0"	0-0	—	—	—	—
5	Michael Maumbe	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	—	—	—	—
10	Rodney Bryant	PG	Fr	6'0"	0-0	—	—	—	—
—	Rodney Bryant Jr	ATH	—	—	0-0	—	—	—	—
4	Wendell Matthews	F	Jr	6'6"	0-0	—	—	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Florida2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Wes Enis	G	Jr	6'2"	32-29	34.0	16.4	3.6	2.4	1.6	51.1%	35.2%	9.5	81.4%	27.1%
5	Joseph Pinion	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.2	14.6	3.9	2.4	1.5	52.2%	37.8%	8.6	78.7%	27.2%
8	Josh Omojafo	G	Sr	6'5"	34-32	27.2	11.3	5.3	1.7	1.2	50.2%	29.7%	2.2	78.2%	21.5%
11	CJ Brown	G	So	6'2"	34-34	26.6	10.9	3.9	4.7	2.0	40.7%	24.2%	1.9	72.7%	27.4%
3	Isaiah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	34-1	15.8	4.5	3.0	0.4	0.3	53.0%	31.4%	2.5	82.9%	14.6%
6	Daimion Collins	F	Sr	6'9"	33-1	14.1	4.0	3.2	0.4	0.5	59.9%	15.8%	0.6	60.0%	15.0%
21	Adriel Nyorha	G	Fr	6'5"	26-2	11.0	3.7	1.7	2.0	1.2	44.8%	32.3%	1.2	67.9%	25.3%
9	Gavin Hightower	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	10.2	4.1	1.7	1.7	1.2	53.5%	20.0%	0.2	67.4%	25.5%
4	Devin Haid	G	Sr	6'5"	23-0	10.0	3.3	2.0	0.8	0.3	47.7%	31.4%	1.5	93.3%	18.5%
7	Caleb Sanders	F	Fr	6'6"	10-2	8.2	3.1	1.6	0.8	0.4	52.8%	33.3%	0.9	66.7%	19.4%
0	Xavier Brown	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	12.0	2.7	0.7	1.7	0.3	33.3%	33.3%	2.0	50.0%	16.3%
15	Onyx Nnani	F	Fr	6'9"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	De'Ante Green	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

West Florida2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted West Florida's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	eFG%	3P%	FT%	Usage
—	Team	ATH	—	—	0-0	—	—	—	—
14	Brandon Burford	PG	So	6'2"	0-0	—	—	—	—
34	Conor Flanagan	G	So	6'8"	0-0	—	—	—	—
1	Darrin Jenkins	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	—	—	—	—
11	David Petit-Homme	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	—	—	—	—
42	Jackson Henningfield	G	Sr	6'9"	0-0	—	—	—	—
2	Kendall Bynum	PG	Fr	6'1"	0-0	—	—	—	—
3	LaTrell Tate	G	So	6'0"	0-0	—	—	—	—
5	Michael Maumbe	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	—	—	—	—
10	Rodney Bryant	PG	Fr	6'0"	0-0	—	—	—	—
—	Rodney Bryant Jr	ATH	—	—	0-0	—	—	—	—
4	Wendell Matthews	F	Jr	6'6"	0-0	—	—	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

West Florida

No completed games yet.

South Florida

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

9-5

Road

7-5

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +5.6

Covered 7 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-18

Home

5-9

Road

7-5

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −9.3

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#6LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	L 79–83	+4.0	P0.0	160.0	O162	105.0	110.3	75.2
Mar 15	Wichita StAdjEM #60	N	W 70–55	−6.0	W+9.0	150.5	U125	102.6	80.6	68.2
Mar 14	CharlotteAdjEM #193	N	W 86–64	−15.5	W+6.5	153.5	U150	125.1	93.1	68.7
Mar 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 83–60	−17.5	W+5.5	155.5	U143	125.9	91.0	65.9
Mar 5	MemphisAdjEM #152	A	W 96–89	−7.5	L−0.5	161.5	O185	123.8	114.8	77.5
Mar 1	TulaneAdjEM #239	H	W 90–62	−15.0	W+13.0	154.5	U152	123.5	85.1	72.8
Feb 25	RiceAdjEM #255	A	W 75–56	−11.0	W+8.0	157.0	U131	107.8	80.5	69.6
Feb 19	MemphisAdjEM #152	H	W 87–66	−9.5	W+11.5	163.5	U153	124.2	94.2	70.1
Feb 15	FAUAdjEM #122	A	W 83–81 OT	−5.0	L−3.0	166.5	U164	108.3	105.7	76.6
Feb 11	Wichita StAdjEM #60	A	W 66–58	−2.0	W+6.0	160.0	U124	95.1	83.5	69.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

West FloridaSouth Florida

Efficiency

100.8

114.7

115.4

103.3

68.3

71.0

—

Shooting

—

50.6%

—

52.0%

—

32.5%

—

74.6%

—

40.4%

Ball control & glass

—

15.1%

—

19.1%

—

38.1%

—

31.9%

—

8.6%

—

13.1%

Style

—

43.8%

—

43.5%

—

16.5%

—

58.4%

—

29.9%

Roster

—

3.18

—

6'4.3"

—

84.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

West Florida

Returning minutes: —Returning production: —

ESPN hasn't posted West Florida's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

New to Division I this season -- no returning-minutes baseline.

South Florida

Returning minutes: 84.4%Returning production: 76.6%

Lost

Izaiyah Nelson 27.3 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tristan Beckford 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

De'Ante Green no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.