CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceG.B. Hodge Center, Spartanburg, SC
GA Southern
Efficiency #231
2025-26: 21-16 · 13-11 conf
@
SC Upstate
Efficiency #284
2025-26: 13-19 · 5-12 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
75.3
win 44%
Projected
77.1
win 56%
No line posted yet.
Model: UPST −1.8 · total 152.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: SC Upstate 68.5, GA Southern 70.1 → 70.3 possessions
+4.2
SC Upstate offense vs GA Southern defense
−1.1
GA Southern offense vs SC Upstate defense
+1.1
Projected total
152.4
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
SC Upstate offense vs GA Southern defense
−1.1
GA Southern offense vs SC Upstate defense
−1.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
SC Upstate by 1.8
1.8
GA Southern side ◂▸ SC Upstate side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SC Upstate.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, GA Southern is the faster team (71.0, #50 of 365) and SC Upstate the slower (69.3, #128). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.4
model
Projected team totals
75.3 / 77.1
GA Southern / SC Upstate
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.1#40
GA Southern
68.5#171
SC Upstate

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
ClashGA Southern
Style match: ball movement
GA Southern creates off the dribble (assists on 41.1% of its baskets); SC Upstate breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 40.1% — both habits push the same way.
Pace
Track meet
SC Upstate averages 69.3 possessions per 40, GA Southern 71.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageSC Upstate
Where SC Upstate struggles: ball control
SC Upstate turns it over on 18.2% of possessions (#283); GA Southern forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#61). Expect about 18.8%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.
ClashSC Upstate
Style match: ball movement
SC Upstate creates off the dribble (assists on 46.0% of its baskets); GA Southern breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.4% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 44.4% — both habits push the same way.
DefenseSC Upstate
SC Upstate's shot-blocking
SC Upstate ranks #39 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of GA Southern's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageGA Southern
Where GA Southern scores: ball control
GA Southern turns it over on 14.6% of possessions (#48); SC Upstate forces turnovers on 16.4% of opponent possessions (#194). Expect about 15.3%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.
GA Southern has the ball
OffenseSC Upstate allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #176
51.0% #156
-0.1 pt/100
14.6% #48
16.4% #194
+1.8 pt/100
28.8% #238
31.4% #224
-0.4 pt/100
39.6% #62
36.0% #211
+0.3 pt/100
74.3% #111
—
+0.2 pt/100
GA Southern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.8 pts/100
SC Upstate has the ball
OffenseGA Southern allowsvs D1 avg
48.3% #307
52.3% #230
-1.7 pt/100
18.2% #283
18.7% #61
-2.5 pt/100
29.2% #231
35.2% #342
+0.9 pt/100
32.8% #239
41.4% #316
+0.3 pt/100
68.1% #324
—
-0.4 pt/100
SC Upstate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
GA Southernoffense vsSC Upstatedefense
Share of shots by zone
GA Southern shoots
SC Upstate allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.2%#26454.7%#5658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.7%#5445.5%#30939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.4%#10035.7%#9638.0%
Three33.4%#20735.6%#28933.7%
SC Upstateoffense vsGA Southerndefense
Share of shots by zone
SC Upstate shoots
GA Southern allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.8%#30359.2%#20158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.4%#13639.3%#16739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.5%#20235.9%#10338.0%
Three31.4%#30834.3%#20833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
GA Southern
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#163 of 365
Off reb %
28.8%
#238
Def reb %
64.8%
#342
Turnover %
14.6%
#48
Forced TO %
18.7%
#61
FT rate
39.6%
#62
FT allowed
41.4%
#316
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding−1.5
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn+1.2
Foul shots allowed−1.6
SC Upstate
−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#289 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#231
Def reb %
68.6%
#224
Turnover %
18.2%
#283
Forced TO %
16.4%
#194
FT rate
32.8%
#239
FT allowed
36.0%
#211
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.2

GA Southern has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#163 of 365) to SC Upstate’s −2.6 (#289).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

GA Southern2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Spudd WebbGSr6'4"37-3732.415.54.62.51.656.6%31.9%3.681.8%24.6%
13Alden ApplewhiteFSr6'7"36-3531.314.15.91.21.256.5%37.4%4.179.3%22.5%
12Tyren MooreGSr5'11"37-3729.416.12.92.61.856.1%38.7%8.483.0%29.6%
5Nakavieon WhiteFSr6'7"37-620.19.73.12.31.644.1%32.5%3.267.1%32.0%
3Khayri DunnGSo6'1"36-017.57.41.70.91.450.2%34.3%3.981.8%27.0%
11Shainen CarterFSr6'9"34-2217.54.03.30.20.953.5%16.7%0.264.3%13.9%
24Andres BurneyFSr6'9"35-1515.74.73.70.30.666.1%—0.054.5%15.4%
9Jefferson KoulibalyGSr6'3"25-1621.14.42.80.70.638.8%24.1%2.257.9%15.3%
1Dwayne Williams JrGFr6'6"34-313.04.51.70.40.346.0%30.2%2.893.8%21.0%
7Tsvet SotirovFSo6'9"35-311.32.71.60.40.343.0%25.3%2.360.0%16.5%
0Jayden WilliamsGFr6'6"17-119.01.21.20.40.126.0%12.5%0.547.1%12.6%
10Sean Van Dorn JrGFr6'6"5-05.03.00.40.20.050.0%40.0%1.075.0%30.1%
4Cade LomasGFr6'3"3-01.70.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%0.7—23.3%
6Amare NealGFr5'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Cullen SchreinerFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Dallas GardnerGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
34Pavle RidesicFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
GA SouthernSC Upstate
Efficiency
109.5
102.8
112.5
109.0
70.1
68.5
—
—
Shooting
51.4%
48.3%
52.7%
48.9%
33.4%
31.4%
74.3%
68.1%
39.6%
32.8%
Ball control & glass
14.6%
18.2%
18.7%
16.4%
28.8%
29.2%
35.2%
31.4%
9.0%
10.6%
9.2%
11.0%
Style
48.9%
35.6%
38.2%
46.2%
12.4%
14.5%
41.1%
46.0%
36.5%
35.4%
Roster
3.48
2.98
6'4.9"
6'4.5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
GA Southern
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

SC Upstate
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.