CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFertitta Center, Houston, TX
C Arkansas
Efficiency #139
2025-26: 22-12 · 17-4 conf
@
Houston
Efficiency #6
2025-26: 30-7 · 16-5 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
62.3
win 8%
Projected
78.9
win 92%
No line posted yet.
Model: HOU −16.6 · total 141.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Houston 65.5, C Arkansas 68.7 → 65.9 possessions
−5.2
Houston offense vs C Arkansas defense
+5.5
C Arkansas offense vs Houston defense
−7.3
Projected total
141.2
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Houston offense vs C Arkansas defense
+5.5
C Arkansas offense vs Houston defense
+7.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Houston by 16.6
16.6
C Arkansas side ◂▸ Houston side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Houston.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, C Arkansas is the faster team (68.9, #158 of 365) and Houston the slower (64.8, #333). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.2
model
Projected team totals
62.3 / 78.9
C Arkansas / Houston
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#148
C Arkansas
65.5#355
Houston
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageHouston
Where Houston scores: shooting
Houston shoots an effective 51.9% (#150); C Arkansas allows 54.9% (#328). Expect about 53.5%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseHouston
Houston's shot-blocking
Houston ranks #38 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of C Arkansas's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageC Arkansas
Where C Arkansas struggles: ball control
C Arkansas turns it over on 15.4% of possessions (#94); Houston forces turnovers on 20.6% of opponent possessions (#14). Expect about 18.4%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Houston's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect C Arkansas at about 48.2% of its shots from three, Houston about 48.7%.
ClashHouston
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
Houston (#32 in offensive rebounding) against C Arkansas (#48 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 32.6%. Historically Houston's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
DefenseHouston
Houston's ball-hawking
Houston ranks #33 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.7% of C Arkansas's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
C Arkansas has the ball
OffenseHouston allowsvs D1 avg
54.0% #68
46.2% #12
-1.5 pt/100
15.4% #94
20.6% #14
-2.0 pt/100
28.8% #240
30.3% #173
-0.7 pt/100
31.2% #278
38.7% #277
+0.0 pt/100
70.7% #246
—
-0.1 pt/100
C Arkansas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.3 pts/100
Houston has the ball
OffenseC Arkansas allowsvs D1 avg
51.9% #150
54.9% #328
+3.1 pt/100
12.8% #3
19.0% #47
+1.0 pt/100
35.7% #32
27.4% #48
+1.4 pt/100
26.3% #355
30.1% #60
-0.9 pt/100
77.3% #28
—
+0.4 pt/100
Houston net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersC Arkansasoffense vsHoustondefense
Share of shots by zone
C Arkansas shoots
37.6
5.7
8.4
48.2
Houston allows
32.7
7.8
17.6
41.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.7%#58 | 56.6%#104 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.4%#188 | 35.9%#90 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 28.3%#362 | 29.8%#6 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.5%#89 | 31.6%#49 | 33.7% |
Houstonoffense vsC Arkansasdefense
Share of shots by zone
Houston shoots
24.0
6.5
28.2
41.3
C Arkansas allows
35.7
3.9
8.3
52.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 67.4%#6 | 63.7%#337 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.9%#149 | 30.2%#15 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.1%#143 | 38.6%#185 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#134 | 35.2%#262 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersC Arkansas
+3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#47 of 365
Off reb %
28.8%
#240
Def reb %
72.6%
#48
Turnover %
15.4%
#94
Forced TO %
19.0%
#47
FT rate
31.2%
#278
FT allowed
30.1%
#60
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.3
Houston
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#37 of 365
Off reb %
35.7%
#32
Def reb %
69.7%
#173
Turnover %
12.8%
#3
Forced TO %
20.6%
#14
FT rate
26.3%
#355
FT allowed
38.7%
#277
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+2.7
Forcing turnovers+2.7
Foul shots drawn−2.2
Foul shots allowed−0.9
Houston has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#37 of 365) to C Arkansas’s +3.4 (#47).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
C Arkansas2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Camren Hunter | G | Sr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 30.9 | 21.0 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 58.0% | 36.9% | 6.0 | 79.6% | 35.2% | |
| 32 | Luke Moore | G | Fr | 6'2" | 34-31 | 29.7 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 47.0% | 32.1% | 3.9 | 56.5% | 21.6% | |
| 12 | Ty Robinson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 27.6 | 14.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 57.8% | 37.4% | 6.0 | 76.7% | 27.0% | |
| 24 | Cole McCormick | F | So | 6'6" | 32-15 | 22.2 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 56.0% | 31.4% | 3.2 | 73.8% | 22.4% | |
| 25 | Malchiah Marable | F | Fr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 20.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 52.4% | 14.3% | |
| 0 | Truman Byrne | F | Fr | 6'10" | 34-0 | 16.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 53.5% | 34.5% | 2.5 | 88.9% | 16.2% | |
| 9 | Harry Beauchamp | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 15.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 60.3% | 42.9% | 2.5 | 85.7% | 16.2% | |
| 5 | Tyler Lee | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 54.5% | 37.1% | 1.0 | 65.0% | 15.7% | |
| 13 | Parker Applegate | G | Jr | 6'8" | 29-0 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 43.9% | 21.4% | 1.0 | 80.0% | 20.3% | |
| 11 | Rashad Bolden | G | Sr | 6'0" | 3-3 | 23.0 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 35.5% | 25.0% | 5.3 | 66.7% | 26.9% | |
| 23 | Chris Mason | F | So | 6'7" | 4-0 | 9.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.8 | — | 18.5% | |
| 10 | Owen Derhmann | G | So | 6'4" | 11-0 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 0.5 | — | 9.9% | |
| 17 | Ethan Thomas | G | So | 6'1" | 8-0 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 37.5% | 50.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 10.9% | |
| 4 | J.C. Shulman | G | Fr | 6'2" | 10-0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 64.3% | 42.9% | 0.7 | — | 11.8% | |
| 7 | R.J. Newton | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Rylie Marshall | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Houston2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Joseph Tugler | F | Jr | 6'8" | 37-36 | 23.5 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 57.8% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 70.7% | 21.8% | |
| 1 | Isiah Harwell | G | Fr | 6'6" | 32-0 | 13.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 36.8% | 27.1% | 2.7 | 61.3% | 21.5% | |
| 14 | Kalifa Sakho | F | Sr | 6'11" | 34-1 | 12.8 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 82.5% | — | 0.0 | 59.3% | 9.4% | |
| 24 | Chase McCarty | F | Fr | 6'5" | 35-0 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 55.7% | 35.8% | 2.7 | 88.9% | 18.6% | |
| 25 | Mercy Miller | G | So | 6'4" | 35-0 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 54.3% | 34.0% | 1.4 | 73.2% | 24.3% | |
| 3 | Ramon Walker Jr. | G | Sr | 6'5" | 28-1 | 11.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 42.2% | 26.5% | 1.2 | 76.0% | 15.4% | |
| 8 | Cedric Lath | C | Jr | 6'10" | 21-0 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 5.6% | |
| 13 | Jacob McFarland | C | So | 6'11" | 4-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 7.4% | |
| 0 | Kordel Jefferson | G | So | 6'3" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 30.6% | |
| 6 | Bryce Jackson | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
C Arkansas2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Camren Hunter | G | Sr | 6'3" | 34-34 | 30.9 | 21.0 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 58.0% | 36.9% | 6.0 | 79.6% | 35.2% | |
| 32 | Luke Moore | G | Fr | 6'2" | 34-31 | 29.7 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 47.0% | 32.1% | 3.9 | 56.5% | 21.6% | |
| 12 | Ty Robinson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 27.6 | 14.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 57.8% | 37.4% | 6.0 | 76.7% | 27.0% | |
| 24 | Cole McCormick | F | So | 6'6" | 32-15 | 22.2 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 56.0% | 31.4% | 3.2 | 73.8% | 22.4% | |
| 25 | Malchiah Marable | F | Fr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 20.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 52.4% | 14.3% | |
| 0 | Truman Byrne | F | Fr | 6'10" | 34-0 | 16.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 53.5% | 34.5% | 2.5 | 88.9% | 16.2% | |
| 9 | Harry Beauchamp | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 15.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 60.3% | 42.9% | 2.5 | 85.7% | 16.2% | |
| 5 | Tyler Lee | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 54.5% | 37.1% | 1.0 | 65.0% | 15.7% | |
| 13 | Parker Applegate | G | Jr | 6'8" | 29-0 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 43.9% | 21.4% | 1.0 | 80.0% | 20.3% | |
| 11 | Rashad Bolden | G | Sr | 6'0" | 3-3 | 23.0 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 35.5% | 25.0% | 5.3 | 66.7% | 26.9% | |
| 23 | Chris Mason | F | So | 6'7" | 4-0 | 9.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.8 | — | 18.5% | |
| 10 | Owen Derhmann | G | So | 6'4" | 11-0 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 0.5 | — | 9.9% | |
| 17 | Ethan Thomas | G | So | 6'1" | 8-0 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 37.5% | 50.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 10.9% | |
| 4 | J.C. Shulman | G | Fr | 6'2" | 10-0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 64.3% | 42.9% | 0.7 | — | 11.8% | |
| 7 | R.J. Newton | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Rylie Marshall | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26C Arkansas
Against the spread
Season
21-10-1
Home
11-1-1
Road
8-8
Last 10
8-2
avg cover +2.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
16-15-1
Home
8-4-1
Road
6-10
Last 10
5-4-1
avg vs total +5.8
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 9 as a favorite, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Queens | N | L 93–98 OT | −2.0 | L−7.0 | 157.0 | O191 | 116.0 | 122.3 | 80.2 |
| Mar 7 | FGCU | N | W 73–63 | −4.5 | W+5.5 | 145.0 | U136 | 104.2 | 89.9 | 70.0 |
| Mar 6 | Bellarmine | N | W 86–73 | −8.0 | W+5.0 | 155.0 | O159 | 136.2 | 115.6 | 63.1 |
| Feb 28 | Queens | H | W 84–79 | −2.5 | W+2.5 | 163.0 | P163 | 118.4 | 111.3 | 70.9 |
| Feb 25 | Austin Peay | A | W 93–88 | +5.0 | W+10.0 | 151.5 | O181 | 137.2 | 129.9 | 67.8 |
| Feb 21 | FGCU | A | L 71–75 OT | −1.0 | L−5.0 | 153.0 | U146 | 98.8 | 104.4 | 71.9 |
| Feb 19 | Stetson | A | W 88–76 | −10.0 | W+2.0 | 149.0 | O164 | 133.0 | 114.9 | 66.2 |
| Feb 14 | West Georgia | H | W 79–62 | −11.0 | W+6.0 | 152.0 | U141 | 114.7 | 90.0 | 68.9 |
| Feb 11 | Bellarmine | H | W 84–76 | −7.5 | W+0.5 | 149.5 | O160 | 128.0 | 115.9 | 65.6 |
| Feb 9 | North Alabama | A | W 72–65 | −6.5 | W+0.5 | 145.0 | U137 | 106.8 | 96.4 | 67.4 |
Houston
Against the spread
Season
18-19
Home
9-7
Road
4-5
Last 10
4-6
avg cover +2.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
15-22
Home
4-12
Road
4-5
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −3.1
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | #3Illinois | N | L 55–65 | −2.5 | L−12.5 | 139.5 | U120 | 94.1 | 111.2 | 58.5 |
| Mar 21 | #10Texas A&M | N | W 88–57 | −10.0 | W+21.0 | 143.0 | O145 | 134.5 | 87.1 | 65.5 |
| Mar 19 | #15Idaho | N | W 78–47 | −24.0 | W+7.0 | 137.5 | U125 | 118.8 | 71.6 | 65.7 |
| Mar 14 | #2Arizona | N | L 74–79 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 138.5 | O153 | 112.6 | 120.2 | 65.7 |
| Mar 13 | #14Kansas | N | W 69–47 | −5.5 | W+16.5 | 138.0 | U116 | 116.4 | 79.3 | 59.3 |
| Mar 12 | BYU | N | W 73–66 | −9.5 | L−2.5 | 148.0 | U139 | 105.4 | 95.3 | 69.3 |
| Mar 7 | Oklahoma St | A | W 82–75 | −13.5 | L−6.5 | 150.5 | O157 | 122.6 | 112.1 | 66.9 |
| Mar 4 | Baylor | H | W 77–64 | −13.5 | L−0.5 | 144.5 | U141 | 118.2 | 98.2 | 65.2 |
| Feb 28 | Colorado | H | W 102–62 | −19.0 | W+21.0 | 138.5 | O164 | 147.5 | 89.7 | 69.1 |
| Feb 23 | #14Kansas | A | L 56–69 | −2.5 | L−15.5 | 138.0 | U125 | 86.3 | 106.3 | 64.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeC ArkansasHouston
Efficiency
109.3
117.7
107.7
96.5
68.7
65.5
—
—
Shooting
54.0%
51.9%
54.7%
51.7%
35.5%
34.7%
70.7%
77.3%
31.2%
26.3%
Ball control & glass
15.4%
12.8%
19.0%
20.6%
28.8%
35.7%
27.4%
30.3%
9.1%
6.9%
10.7%
6.4%
Style
48.7%
40.7%
40.4%
37.3%
14.5%
10.4%
58.0%
52.6%
35.1%
29.6%
Roster
1.74
2.52
6'5"
6'6.9"
89.6%
40.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputC Arkansas
Returning minutes: 89.6%Returning production: 89.3%
Lost
- Javion Guy-King 21.1 mpg, 9.2 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
- Rylie Marshall no D1 minutes last season
- R.J. Newton no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Houston
Returning minutes: 40.7%Returning production: 36.1%
Lost
- Milos Uzan 33.0 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kingston Flemings 31.6 mpg, 16.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Emanuel Sharp 29.4 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chris Cenac Jr. 24.9 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Bryce Jackson no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 41% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.