CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceJohn M. Belk Arena, Davidson, NC

Dartmouth

Efficiency #254

2025-26: 11-16 · 5-9 conf

Davidson

Efficiency #112

2025-26: 20-14 · 11-9 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · TBD

67.8

win 22%

Projected

76.6

win 78%

No line posted yet.

Model: DAV −8.9 · total 144.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Davidson 65.9, Dartmouth 69.7 → 67.3 possessions

−2.3

Davidson offense vs Dartmouth defense

+1.7

Dartmouth offense vs Davidson defense

−3.2

Projected total

144.4

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Davidson offense vs Dartmouth defense

+1.7

Dartmouth offense vs Davidson defense

+3.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Davidson by 8.9

8.9

Dartmouth side ◂▸ Davidson side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +8.8 against +8.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Davidson.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Dartmouth is the faster team (69.2, #130 of 365) and Davidson the slower (64.2, #351). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.4

model

Projected team totals

67.8 / 76.6

Dartmouth / Davidson

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.7#74

Dartmouth

65.9#343

Davidson

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageDavidson

Where Davidson scores: ball control

Davidson turns it over on 15.8% of possessions (#121); Dartmouth forces turnovers on 13.8% of opponent possessions (#340). Expect about 14.3%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageDartmouth

Where Dartmouth struggles: the offensive glass

Dartmouth rebounds 23.7% of its own misses (#346); Davidson lets opponents grab 30.0% of their own misses (#157). Expect about 25.5%, 4.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Davidson averages 64.2 possessions per 40, Dartmouth 69.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Dartmouth has the ball

OffenseDavidson allowsvs D1 avg

51.8% #156

50.6% #132

-0.1 pt/100

17.6% #247

17.5% #121

-1.2 pt/100

23.7% #346

30.0% #157

-3.0 pt/100

38.0% #103

37.1% #240

+0.3 pt/100

74.2% #119

—

+0.2 pt/100

Dartmouth net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.8 pts/100

Davidson has the ball

OffenseDartmouth allowsvs D1 avg

52.6% #121

52.7% #254

+2.1 pt/100

15.8% #121

13.8% #340

+3.0 pt/100

28.1% #265

29.7% #148

-1.2 pt/100

31.0% #283

30.7% #80

-0.6 pt/100

63.9% #365

—

-0.7 pt/100

Davidson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Dartmouthoffense vsDavidsondefense

Share of shots by zone

Dartmouth shoots

34.0

5.1

12.2

48.6

Davidson allows

39.3

8.9

16.2

35.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.0%#274	57.2%#119	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.3%#312	36.5%#101	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#119	39.2%#207	38.0%
Three	36.1%#51	32.6%#92	33.7%

Davidsonoffense vsDartmouthdefense

Share of shots by zone

Davidson shoots

30.3

9.6

15.3

44.8

Dartmouth allows

44.0

4.8

11.8

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#146	58.3%#156	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.9%#80	44.8%#291	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.2%#50	32.9%#27	38.0%
Three	35.4%#92	34.6%#227	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Dartmouth

−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#285 of 365

Off reb %

23.7%

#346

Def reb %

70.3%

#148

Turnover %

17.6%

#247

Forced TO %

13.8%

#340

FT rate

38.0%

#103

FT allowed

30.7%

#80

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.1

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers−2.0

Foul shots drawn+0.8

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Davidson

−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#216 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#265

Def reb %

70.0%

#157

Turnover %

15.8%

#121

Forced TO %

17.5%

#121

FT rate

31.0%

#283

FT allowed

37.1%

#240

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.5

Davidson has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#216 of 365) to Dartmouth’s −2.5 (#285).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Dartmouth2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Dartmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Kareem Thomas	G	So	6'5"	26-25	29.2	15.9	3.0	1.5	2.3	53.5%	44.7%	4.0	79.5%	30.6%
30	Connor Amundsen	PG	So	5'11"	26-25	29.1	9.5	2.0	3.7	1.1	48.0%	33.3%	4.5	74.6%	20.2%
21	Brandon Mitchell-Day	F	Sr	6'8"	27-27	28.0	12.1	9.0	2.3	2.6	53.7%	35.8%	2.5	75.0%	27.0%
22	Jayden Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	26-26	27.3	11.8	3.9	1.1	1.9	54.0%	35.6%	6.9	84.8%	25.9%
33	Jackson Munro	F	Sr	6'8"	27-27	24.7	7.8	4.2	2.0	0.9	59.3%	37.3%	3.1	80.6%	16.7%
5	Cameron McNamee	G	So	6'6"	27-1	20.3	6.0	3.6	0.7	0.8	53.8%	38.1%	3.1	66.0%	17.3%
11	Cam Hiatt	G	Fr	6'4"	23-1	17.3	3.7	1.8	1.2	0.9	44.0%	31.7%	2.6	84.6%	15.7%
23	Nikola Abusara	G	Jr	6'5"	23-0	17.2	5.4	2.4	1.4	0.9	45.0%	17.6%	0.7	73.9%	20.4%
0	Ben Brown	G	Jr	6'2"	16-2	9.3	2.1	0.5	0.1	0.3	50.0%	34.5%	1.8	—	14.7%
10	Anton Strelnikov	C	Fr	6'8"	18-0	5.8	4.1	1.2	0.2	0.3	66.3%	50.0%	0.1	53.3%	33.7%
7	Patrick Tivnan Jr.	F	Jr	6'8"	13-0	6.4	1.0	1.4	0.4	0.2	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	14.3%	10.2%
44	Shanon Simango	F	So	6'8"	10-0	4.5	3.0	1.6	0.1	0.2	66.7%	0.0%	0.1	60.9%	31.1%
50	Tyler Garrett	F	Fr	6'10"	8-0	5.3	2.5	2.8	0.5	0.4	59.4%	33.3%	1.1	50.0%	26.3%
3	Khai Lockwood	G	So	6'1"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	9.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Davidson2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Parker Friedrichsen	G	Jr	6'4"	34-33	25.3	10.8	2.5	1.4	1.2	54.1%	40.5%	4.9	75.0%	26.1%
4	Josh Scovens	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	24.8	11.1	4.3	1.9	1.2	57.4%	36.7%	0.9	63.9%	26.6%
11	Sam Brown	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	23.7	8.0	1.9	2.2	1.2	43.2%	27.2%	3.9	69.6%	25.6%
45	Roberts Blums	G	So	6'4"	32-0	22.3	12.4	3.4	1.1	0.9	58.6%	40.7%	5.9	63.6%	31.7%
3	Nick Coval	G	Fr	6'2"	33-3	19.4	6.4	1.6	1.6	1.0	58.0%	36.5%	2.2	84.3%	19.6%
12	Hunter Adam	G	Jr	6'7"	33-1	15.6	5.7	2.4	0.8	0.5	63.1%	39.4%	2.8	76.0%	19.2%
16	Ian Platteeuw	G	Fr	7'0"	31-26	15.2	4.1	3.8	1.9	1.2	49.6%	27.3%	0.4	43.8%	21.8%
15	Sean Logan	F	Sr	6'10"	26-7	15.7	3.7	3.4	0.7	0.8	50.6%	28.6%	0.3	37.8%	18.6%
24	JaQualon Roberts	F	Jr	6'8"	32-0	11.8	2.7	2.4	0.4	0.6	46.2%	11.1%	0.3	61.5%	17.1%
0	Manie Joses	F	So	6'7"	31-6	9.5	1.8	2.2	0.5	0.2	59.3%	23.8%	0.7	75.0%	10.9%
7	RJ Greer	G	Fr	6'3"	17-0	6.7	3.4	0.5	0.3	0.4	56.4%	42.9%	1.6	93.3%	27.2%
8	Joe Hurlburt	G	Sr	6'11"	8-1	9.0	1.6	3.4	0.8	0.8	42.9%	33.3%	0.8	25.0%	18.4%
51	Brock Matheny	G	Sr	5'10"	5-1	2.8	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.2	60.0%	40.0%	1.0	—	23.7%
14	Phillip Kavu	G	Fr	6'2"	4-0	3.3	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	20.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	20.8%
50	John Nowland	F	Jr	6'8"	4-0	2.8	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	50.0%	19.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Dartmouth2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Dartmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Kareem Thomas	G	So	6'5"	26-25	29.2	15.9	3.0	1.5	2.3	53.5%	44.7%	4.0	79.5%	30.6%
30	Connor Amundsen	PG	So	5'11"	26-25	29.1	9.5	2.0	3.7	1.1	48.0%	33.3%	4.5	74.6%	20.2%
21	Brandon Mitchell-Day	F	Sr	6'8"	27-27	28.0	12.1	9.0	2.3	2.6	53.7%	35.8%	2.5	75.0%	27.0%
22	Jayden Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	26-26	27.3	11.8	3.9	1.1	1.9	54.0%	35.6%	6.9	84.8%	25.9%
33	Jackson Munro	F	Sr	6'8"	27-27	24.7	7.8	4.2	2.0	0.9	59.3%	37.3%	3.1	80.6%	16.7%
5	Cameron McNamee	G	So	6'6"	27-1	20.3	6.0	3.6	0.7	0.8	53.8%	38.1%	3.1	66.0%	17.3%
11	Cam Hiatt	G	Fr	6'4"	23-1	17.3	3.7	1.8	1.2	0.9	44.0%	31.7%	2.6	84.6%	15.7%
23	Nikola Abusara	G	Jr	6'5"	23-0	17.2	5.4	2.4	1.4	0.9	45.0%	17.6%	0.7	73.9%	20.4%
0	Ben Brown	G	Jr	6'2"	16-2	9.3	2.1	0.5	0.1	0.3	50.0%	34.5%	1.8	—	14.7%
10	Anton Strelnikov	C	Fr	6'8"	18-0	5.8	4.1	1.2	0.2	0.3	66.3%	50.0%	0.1	53.3%	33.7%
7	Patrick Tivnan Jr.	F	Jr	6'8"	13-0	6.4	1.0	1.4	0.4	0.2	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	14.3%	10.2%
44	Shanon Simango	F	So	6'8"	10-0	4.5	3.0	1.6	0.1	0.2	66.7%	0.0%	0.1	60.9%	31.1%
50	Tyler Garrett	F	Fr	6'10"	8-0	5.3	2.5	2.8	0.5	0.4	59.4%	33.3%	1.1	50.0%	26.3%
3	Khai Lockwood	G	So	6'1"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	9.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Dartmouth

Against the spread

Season

11-14

Home

2-9

Road

9-5

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −5.0

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-13

Home

4-7

Road

8-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.6

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	CornellAdjEM #135	H	L 90–111	+4.5	L−16.5	166.0	O201	115.5	142.5	77.9
Feb 28	PrincetonAdjEM #251	A	L 61–82	+2.0	L−19.0	141.5	O143	94.4	126.9	64.6
Feb 27	PennAdjEM #162	A	L 71–80	+6.5	L−2.5	153.5	U151	102.6	115.6	69.2
Feb 21	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	W 64–63	+7.0	W+8.0	151.5	U127	95.3	93.8	67.2
Feb 14	BrownAdjEM #275	H	L 76–79	−3.0	L−6.0	139.5	O155	106.4	110.6	71.5
Feb 13	YaleAdjEM #57	H	L 70–83	+10.0	L−3.0	151.5	O153	102.5	121.5	68.3
Feb 7	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	L 58–71	+1.0	L−12.0	140.5	U129	90.1	110.3	64.4
Jan 31	BrownAdjEM #275	A	W 77–70 OT	+2.0	W+9.0	143.0	O147	103.1	93.7	74.7
Jan 30	YaleAdjEM #57	A	L 68–83	+15.5	W+0.5	155.0	U151	105.8	129.1	64.3
Jan 24	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	H	L 69–79	+2.0	L−8.0	157.0	U148	96.6	110.6	71.4

Davidson

Against the spread

Season

14-16-2

Home

5-9-2

Road

8-4

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −0.7

Covered the last gameCovered 0 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-18-1

Home

8-7-1

Road

4-8

Last 10

2-7-1

avg vs total −6.7

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	A	L 80–84	+6.5	W+2.5	154.0	O164	109.2	114.6	73.3
Mar 13	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	N	L 58–70	+2.0	L−10.0	132.5	U128	95.0	114.6	61.1
Mar 12	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	N	W 64–59 OT	−5.5	L−0.5	132.5	U123	96.6	89.0	66.3
Mar 7	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	A	W 68–63	+5.0	W+10.0	142.0	U131	106.0	98.2	64.2
Mar 4	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	H	L 67–70	−2.5	L−5.5	137.0	P137	102.1	106.7	65.6
Mar 1	La SalleAdjEM #256	H	W 71–64	−11.0	L−4.0	133.5	O135	105.3	95.0	67.4
Feb 25	DuquesneAdjEM #131	A	W 67–56	+3.5	W+14.5	143.0	U123	102.2	85.4	65.6
Feb 21	FordhamAdjEM #170	A	L 59–63	−1.0	L−5.0	132.0	U122	98.4	105.1	60.0
Feb 18	RichmondAdjEM #150	H	W 65–63	−5.0	L−3.0	140.5	U128	101.9	98.8	63.8
Feb 15	DaytonAdjEM #62	A	L 59–70	+5.0	L−6.0	140.0	U129	97.0	115.1	60.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

DartmouthDavidson

Efficiency

106.2

108.7

110.8

105.9

69.7

65.9

—

Shooting

51.8%

52.6%

49.4%

52.2%

36.1%

35.4%

74.2%

63.9%

38.0%

31.0%

Ball control & glass

17.6%

15.8%

13.8%

17.5%

23.7%

28.1%

29.7%

30.0%

10.5%

9.1%

10.4%

9.6%

Style

48.7%

44.5%

34.2%

40.0%

9.5%

11.2%

53.9%

53.6%

32.1%

45.0%

Roster

2.80

2.51

6'5.2"

6'5.7"

—

88.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Dartmouth

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Dartmouth's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Davidson

Returning minutes: 88.5%Returning production: 91.2%

Lost

Devin Brown 23.4 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.