CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameMemorial Coliseum (IN), Fort Wayne, IN
Detroit Mercy
Efficiency #224
2025-26: 17-15 · 14-9 conf
@
Purdue FW
Efficiency #258
2025-26: 17-15 · 11-10 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
74.9
win 42%
Projected
77.3
win 58%
No line posted yet.
Model: PFW −2.5 · total 152.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Purdue FW 68.6, Detroit Mercy 69.2 → 69.5 possessions
+2.5
Purdue FW offense vs Detroit Mercy defense
0.0
Detroit Mercy offense vs Purdue FW defense
+1.5
Projected total
152.2
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Purdue FW offense vs Detroit Mercy defense
0.0
Detroit Mercy offense vs Purdue FW defense
−1.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Purdue FW by 2.5
2.5
Detroit Mercy side ◂▸ Purdue FW side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Purdue FW.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Detroit Mercy is the faster team (69.7, #103 of 365) and Purdue FW the slower (69.0, #145). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.2
model
Projected team totals
74.9 / 77.3
Detroit Mercy / Purdue FW
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.2#106
Detroit Mercy
68.6#160
Purdue FW

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantagePurdue FW
Where Purdue FW scores: ball control
Purdue FW turns it over on 14.5% of possessions (#44); Detroit Mercy forces turnovers on 14.4% of opponent possessions (#324). Expect about 14.0%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.
GlassPurdue FW
Purdue FW gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.4% is worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions against Purdue FW's offense.
AdvantageDetroit Mercy
Where Detroit Mercy scores: the offensive glass
Detroit Mercy rebounds 33.3% of its own misses (#81); Purdue FW lets opponents grab 34.5% of their own misses (#327). Expect about 34.4%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Purdue FW's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Detroit Mercy at about 35.4% of its shots from three, Purdue FW about 46.2%.
ClashDetroit Mercy
Style clash: 3-point volume
Detroit Mercy rarely shoots threes (30.7% of its shots); Purdue FW lets opponents take 44.1% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 35.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
DefensePurdue FW
Purdue FW's ball-hawking
Purdue FW ranks #37 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.5% of Detroit Mercy's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Detroit Mercy has the ball
OffensePurdue FW allowsvs D1 avg
49.5% #267
56.1% #345
+2.0 pt/100
16.0% #143
19.1% #45
-1.3 pt/100
33.3% #81
34.5% #327
+2.4 pt/100
32.6% #247
28.5% #36
-0.6 pt/100
78.9% #4
—
+0.6 pt/100
Detroit Mercy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100
Purdue FW has the ball
OffenseDetroit Mercy allowsvs D1 avg
52.6% #125
52.2% #223
+1.7 pt/100
14.5% #44
14.4% #324
+3.4 pt/100
22.9% #351
30.8% #193
-3.1 pt/100
30.6% #292
37.6% #254
-0.1 pt/100
70.7% #247
—
-0.1 pt/100
Purdue FW net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Detroit Mercyoffense vsPurdue FWdefense
Share of shots by zone
Detroit Mercy shoots
Purdue FW allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.2%#29462.7%#31758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15730.3%#1739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.4%#9635.8%#10038.0%
Three35.1%#10837.9%#35533.7%
Purdue FWoffense vsDetroit Mercydefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue FW shoots
Detroit Mercy allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.5%#17659.0%#19158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.0%#17146.4%#32539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.5%#25134.4%#5938.0%
Three34.2%#16333.3%#14033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Detroit Mercy
−1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#254 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#81
Def reb %
69.2%
#193
Turnover %
16.0%
#143
Forced TO %
14.4%
#324
FT rate
32.6%
#247
FT allowed
37.6%
#254
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.6
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.6
Purdue FW
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#177 of 365
Off reb %
22.9%
#351
Def reb %
65.5%
#327
Turnover %
14.5%
#44
Forced TO %
19.1%
#45
FT rate
30.6%
#292
FT allowed
28.5%
#36
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.4
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.7

Purdue FW has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.1 (#177 of 365) to Detroit Mercy’s −1.4 (#254).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Detroit Mercy2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Detroit Mercy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Orlando LovejoyGSr6'3"31-3131.015.83.63.72.045.1%14.8%0.989.2%31.3%
33TJ NadeauGSo6'5"31-3126.513.83.21.00.960.9%46.7%4.886.3%25.2%
1Tyler SprattGFr6'5"32-2824.89.93.61.50.952.2%38.5%4.578.1%22.6%
23Legend GeeterFSr6'8"29-2525.68.36.42.31.651.1%29.4%1.269.0%20.5%
11Lance StoneGFr5'8"32-120.86.81.32.01.241.0%33.0%3.187.3%22.9%
30Ryan KalambayFSo6'9"31-1820.64.25.50.50.657.5%—0.071.4%11.5%
20London MaidenFJr6'8"31-915.56.33.00.41.154.5%—0.064.3%24.5%
10Nate JohnsonGSo6'7"26-410.32.81.90.40.534.2%16.7%0.958.1%22.2%
13Jared LaryGSr6'6"26-09.72.31.80.70.835.7%24.0%1.073.3%21.5%
4Keshawn FisherGFr6'7"20-111.45.52.20.81.149.0%27.5%2.082.4%31.0%
2Je'kel CottonGFr6'6"27-07.42.32.50.10.244.4%29.3%1.550.0%20.5%
7Ayden CarterGJr6'5"9-520.612.24.31.22.057.7%22.2%2.076.9%32.5%
6Xavier Istomin-MonroeCFr7'1"19-78.31.81.70.10.655.2%—0.025.0%16.5%
25Zak AbdallaGFr6'2"3-02.31.70.30.30.075.0%100.0%0.3100.0%21.9%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Detroit MercyPurdue FW
Efficiency
107.9
106.3
110.6
111.2
69.2
68.6
—
—
Shooting
49.5%
52.6%
48.1%
53.7%
35.1%
34.2%
78.9%
70.7%
32.6%
30.6%
Ball control & glass
16.0%
14.5%
14.4%
19.1%
33.3%
22.9%
30.8%
34.5%
8.9%
7.3%
7.9%
8.3%
Style
30.7%
45.3%
41.3%
43.2%
14.9%
15.9%
48.5%
49.8%
35.6%
30.8%
Roster
2.40
3.13
6'5.2"
6'4.3"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Detroit Mercy
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Detroit Mercy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Purdue FW
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Purdue FW's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Jan 212025-26Purdue FW 83 – 76 Detroit Mercy
Sun, Dec 142025-26Detroit Mercy 77 – 81 Purdue FW

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.