CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLeavey Center, Santa Clara, CA
Fresno St
Efficiency #169
2025-26: 13-19 · 7-14 conf
@
Santa Clara
Efficiency #33
2025-26: 26-9 · 17-4 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
70.2
win 15%
Projected
82.3
win 85%
No line posted yet.
Model: SCU −12.1 · total 152.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Santa Clara 69.5, Fresno St 68.9 → 70.1 possessions
+3.8
Santa Clara offense vs Fresno St defense
+4.3
Fresno St offense vs Santa Clara defense
−3.8
Projected total
152.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Santa Clara offense vs Fresno St defense
+4.3
Fresno St offense vs Santa Clara defense
+3.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Santa Clara by 12.1
12.1
Fresno St side ◂▸ Santa Clara side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 152.5 against a projected 152.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Santa Clara.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Santa Clara is the faster team (69.5, #113 of 365) and Fresno St the slower (69.4, #124). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.6
model
Projected team totals
70.2 / 82.3
Fresno St / Santa Clara
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.9#127
Fresno St
69.5#84
Santa Clara
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageFresno St
Where Fresno St struggles: ball control
Fresno St turns it over on 18.1% of possessions (#279); Santa Clara forces turnovers on 19.9% of opponent possessions (#25). Expect about 19.6%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSanta Clara
Where Santa Clara scores: shooting
Santa Clara shoots an effective 54.4% (#53); Fresno St allows 51.5% (#184). Expect about 53.2%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
GlassSanta Clara
Santa Clara owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for Santa Clara's offense.
DefenseSanta Clara
Santa Clara's ball-hawking
Santa Clara ranks #17 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.9% of Fresno St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
ClashSanta Clara
Style match: 3-point volume
Santa Clara takes 45.0% of its shots from three; Fresno St lets opponents take 44.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.8% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Fresno St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Fresno St at about 39.9% of its shots from three, Santa Clara about 46.8%.
Fresno St has the ball
OffenseSanta Clara allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #206
52.0% #213
-0.0 pt/100
18.1% #279
19.9% #25
-3.4 pt/100
27.9% #272
32.1% #262
-0.6 pt/100
33.8% #218
38.2% #264
+0.2 pt/100
75.1% #78
—
+0.2 pt/100
Fresno St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.6 pts/100
Santa Clara has the ball
OffenseFresno St allowsvs D1 avg
54.4% #53
51.5% #184
+2.8 pt/100
15.4% #99
18.2% #87
-0.2 pt/100
36.4% #20
30.6% #183
+2.6 pt/100
25.5% #363
28.6% #37
-1.0 pt/100
74.4% #106
—
+0.2 pt/100
Santa Clara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersFresno Stoffense vsSanta Claradefense
Share of shots by zone
Fresno St shoots
36.0
8.3
14.8
40.8
Santa Clara allows
43.0
5.2
13.7
38.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.4%#182 | 61.4%#281 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.1%#118 | 38.4%#144 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.9%#60 | 32.9%#26 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.1%#274 | 33.1%#127 | 33.7% |
Santa Claraoffense vsFresno Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Santa Clara shoots
35.1
10.4
10.2
44.2
Fresno St allows
36.7
5.1
14.5
43.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.3%#84 | 64.9%#349 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.2%#37 | 41.7%#227 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.1%#24 | 40.8%#270 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.9%#125 | 30.7%#30 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersFresno St
+0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#151 of 365
Off reb %
27.9%
#272
Def reb %
69.4%
#183
Turnover %
18.1%
#279
Forced TO %
18.2%
#87
FT rate
33.8%
#218
FT allowed
28.6%
#37
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers+1.0
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.7
Santa Clara
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#123 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#20
Def reb %
67.9%
#262
Turnover %
15.4%
#99
Forced TO %
19.9%
#25
FT rate
25.5%
#363
FT allowed
38.2%
#264
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.8
Santa Clara has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.4 (#123 of 365) to Fresno St’s +0.7 (#151).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Fresno St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jake Heidbreder | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-30 | 37.0 | 17.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 49.7% | 31.9% | 7.2 | 90.1% | 26.5% | |
| 35 | DeShawn Gory | F | Fr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 29.3 | 13.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 52.5% | 27.0% | 3.5 | 64.7% | 28.1% | |
| 16 | Wilson Jacques | C | Fr | 7'0" | 32-32 | 27.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 49.3% | 30.8% | 0.4 | 74.4% | 20.6% | |
| 4 | Cameron Faas | G | Sr | 6'7" | 32-17 | 19.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 54.1% | 37.1% | 3.6 | 90.0% | 15.9% | |
| 9 | Gasper Kocevar | C | Fr | 6'10" | 26-5 | 13.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 65.4% | 44.4% | 0.3 | 54.3% | 14.1% | |
| 15 | David Douglas Jr. | G | Jr | 6'5" | 18-8 | 17.8 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 58.2% | 39.7% | 4.1 | 71.9% | 21.0% | |
| 11 | Jac Mani | F | Jr | 6'9" | 26-0 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 51.2% | 30.0% | 1.9 | 68.0% | 31.5% | |
| 6 | DJ Stickman | G | Fr | 6'2" | 20-1 | 15.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 60.5% | 44.4% | 0.5 | 72.4% | 15.3% | |
| 5 | Makhan Diouf | F | Fr | 6'11" | 17-2 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 28.3% | 9.1% | 0.6 | 85.7% | 25.0% | |
| 17 | Matteo Porto | G | Fr | 6'7" | 13-0 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.8 | 57.1% | 25.7% | |
| 1 | Troy Jenkins | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 9.6% | |
| 80 | Nathan Zulemie | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Santa Clara2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Hammond | G | So | 6'4" | 34-34 | 30.3 | 15.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 54.9% | 39.3% | 4.0 | 78.7% | 28.7% | |
| 44 | Jake Ensminger | G | Jr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 28.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 66.1% | 39.8% | 2.8 | 66.7% | 11.6% | |
| 0 | Brenton Knapper | G | Sr | 6'0" | 33-33 | 21.5 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 45.6% | 27.4% | 3.4 | 79.2% | 23.4% | |
| 2 | Sash Gavalyugov | G | Fr | 6'3" | 35-2 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 51.6% | 35.8% | 5.3 | 72.0% | 28.4% | |
| 15 | Thierry Darlan | G | Jr | 6'8" | 35-1 | 17.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 50.3% | 33.9% | 3.4 | 88.6% | 22.0% | |
| 7 | KJ Cochran | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-0 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 51.4% | 27.1% | 2.5 | 65.2% | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Francis Chukwudebelu | C | Fr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 52.0% | 40.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 11.5% | |
| 50 | Brendan Yarusso | G | Sr | 6'1" | 8-0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 1.4 | 100.0% | 77.2% | |
| 51 | Juan Reyna | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Brad Longcor III | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Chris Tadjo | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Gehrig Normand | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 54 | Malachi Douyon | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Noah Badibanga | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Fresno St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jake Heidbreder | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-30 | 37.0 | 17.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 49.7% | 31.9% | 7.2 | 90.1% | 26.5% | |
| 35 | DeShawn Gory | F | Fr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 29.3 | 13.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 52.5% | 27.0% | 3.5 | 64.7% | 28.1% | |
| 16 | Wilson Jacques | C | Fr | 7'0" | 32-32 | 27.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 49.3% | 30.8% | 0.4 | 74.4% | 20.6% | |
| 4 | Cameron Faas | G | Sr | 6'7" | 32-17 | 19.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 54.1% | 37.1% | 3.6 | 90.0% | 15.9% | |
| 9 | Gasper Kocevar | C | Fr | 6'10" | 26-5 | 13.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 65.4% | 44.4% | 0.3 | 54.3% | 14.1% | |
| 15 | David Douglas Jr. | G | Jr | 6'5" | 18-8 | 17.8 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 58.2% | 39.7% | 4.1 | 71.9% | 21.0% | |
| 11 | Jac Mani | F | Jr | 6'9" | 26-0 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 51.2% | 30.0% | 1.9 | 68.0% | 31.5% | |
| 6 | DJ Stickman | G | Fr | 6'2" | 20-1 | 15.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 60.5% | 44.4% | 0.5 | 72.4% | 15.3% | |
| 5 | Makhan Diouf | F | Fr | 6'11" | 17-2 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 28.3% | 9.1% | 0.6 | 85.7% | 25.0% | |
| 17 | Matteo Porto | G | Fr | 6'7" | 13-0 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.8 | 57.1% | 25.7% | |
| 1 | Troy Jenkins | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 9.6% | |
| 80 | Nathan Zulemie | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Fresno St
Against the spread
Season
20-11
Home
12-4
Road
6-6
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.4
Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 8 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
14-17
Home
9-7
Road
5-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −1.4
Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Colorado St | N | L 63–67 | +7.5 | W+3.5 | 145.5 | U130 | 100.1 | 106.4 | 63.0 |
| Mar 7 | Grand Canyon | A | L 60–85 | +12.5 | L−12.5 | 150.0 | U145 | 82.6 | 117.0 | 72.7 |
| Mar 3 | San José St | H | W 82–68 | −7.5 | W+6.5 | 149.5 | O150 | 120.2 | 99.7 | 68.2 |
| Feb 28 | Boise St | H | L 53–69 | +7.0 | L−9.0 | 149.0 | U122 | 88.3 | 114.9 | 60.0 |
| Feb 24 | Colorado St | A | L 70–74 | +8.5 | W+4.5 | 148.5 | U144 | 105.0 | 111.0 | 66.7 |
| Feb 21 | New Mexico | H | L 78–80 | +9.0 | W+7.0 | 156.5 | O158 | 116.0 | 119.0 | 67.2 |
| Feb 17 | Wyoming | A | L 82–92 | +9.5 | L−0.5 | 147.5 | O174 | 125.6 | 140.9 | 65.3 |
| Feb 14 | Air Force | H | W 93–63 | −15.0 | W+15.0 | 142.0 | O156 | 127.5 | 86.4 | 72.9 |
| Feb 10 | Utah State | A | L 78–91 | +21.0 | W+8.0 | 152.5 | O169 | 111.5 | 130.0 | 70.0 |
| Feb 7 | Nevada | A | L 59–69 | +11.5 | W+1.5 | 149.5 | U128 | 93.3 | 109.1 | 63.2 |
Santa Clara
Against the spread
Season
17-16-1
Home
9-5
Road
6-5
Last 10
3-7
avg cover +0.1
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
19-15
Home
8-6
Road
7-4
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +7.6
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | #7Kentucky | N | L 84–89 OT | +3.5 | L−1.5 | 157.5 | O173 | 112.6 | 119.3 | 74.6 |
| Mar 10 | #12Gonzaga | N | L 68–79 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 156.5 | U147 | 112.7 | 130.9 | 60.4 |
| Mar 9 | #21Saint Mary's | N | W 76–71 | +4.5 | W+9.5 | 150.0 | U147 | 122.9 | 114.8 | 61.8 |
| Mar 8 | Pacific | N | W 76–68 | −9.5 | L−1.5 | 148.0 | U144 | 128.4 | 114.9 | 59.2 |
| Feb 28 | Oregon St | H | W 93–72 | −16.5 | W+4.5 | 153.0 | O165 | 135.8 | 105.2 | 68.5 |
| Feb 25 | Saint Mary's | A | L 67–86 | +5.5 | L−13.5 | 154.0 | U153 | 102.4 | 131.5 | 65.4 |
| Feb 21 | San Francisco | A | W 94–73 | −6.5 | W+14.5 | 159.0 | O167 | 125.9 | 97.8 | 74.7 |
| Feb 14 | #12Gonzaga | H | L 86–94 | +5.0 | L−3.0 | 158.5 | O180 | 112.6 | 123.1 | 76.4 |
| Feb 11 | Seattle U | H | W 84–72 | −12.5 | L−0.5 | 147.0 | O156 | 122.8 | 105.2 | 68.4 |
| Feb 7 | Washington St | A | W 96–92 | −8.5 | L−4.5 | 160.5 | O188 | 135.5 | 129.8 | 70.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeFresno StSanta Clara
Efficiency
106.2
117.3
105.8
105.4
68.9
69.5
—
—
Shooting
50.6%
54.4%
52.3%
56.1%
32.1%
34.9%
75.1%
74.4%
33.8%
25.5%
Ball control & glass
18.1%
15.4%
18.2%
19.9%
27.9%
36.4%
30.6%
32.1%
10.7%
9.2%
9.8%
9.0%
Style
40.9%
45.0%
43.9%
43.7%
13.1%
15.2%
49.9%
55.0%
27.3%
35.7%
Roster
2.29
2.38
6'7.2"
6'5.1"
77.4%
65.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputFresno St
Returning minutes: 77.4%Returning production: 79.7%
Lost
- Zaon Collins 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Ball State
- Bastien Rieber 16.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg · transferred to Niagara
- Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano 3.9 mpg, 0.9 ppg · transferred to Merrimack
Added
- Nathan Zulemie no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 77% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Santa Clara
Returning minutes: 65.0%Returning production: 55.6%
Lost
- Elijah Mahi 30.4 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Allen Graves 22.6 mpg, 11.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bukky Oboye 17.3 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn
Added
- Brad Longcor III no D1 minutes last season
- Malachi Douyon no D1 minutes last season
- Noah Badibanga no D1 minutes last season
- Chris Tadjo no D1 minutes last season
- Gehrig Normand no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 65% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.