CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameWolstein Center, Cleveland, OH

Youngstown St

Efficiency #204

2025-26: 15-17 · 8-13 conf

Cleveland St

Efficiency #330

2025-26: 11-22 · 7-15 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · 7:00 PM ET

79.5

win 57%

Projected

77.5

win 43%

No line posted yet.

Model: YSU −2.1 · total 157.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Cleveland St 69.9, Youngstown St 68.3 → 69.8 possessions

+3.2

Cleveland St offense vs Youngstown St defense

−0.3

Youngstown St offense vs Cleveland St defense

+5.8

Projected total

157.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Cleveland St offense vs Youngstown St defense

−0.3

Youngstown St offense vs Cleveland St defense

−5.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Youngstown St by 2.1

2.1

Youngstown St side ◂▸ Cleveland St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 156.9 against a projected 157.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Cleveland St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cleveland St is the faster team (71.4, #39 of 365) and Youngstown St the slower (68.6, #169). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

157.0

model

Projected team totals

79.5 / 77.5

Youngstown St / Cleveland St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.3#187

Youngstown St

69.9#59

Cleveland St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageYoungstown St

Where Youngstown St scores: shooting

Youngstown St shoots an effective 53.7% (#76); Cleveland St allows 57.2% (#360). Expect about 55.7%, 4.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.2 points per 100 possessions.

ClashYoungstown St

Style match: 3-point volume

Youngstown St takes 49.4% of its shots from three; Cleveland St lets opponents take 44.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 50.3% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageCleveland St

Where Cleveland St scores: shooting

Cleveland St shoots an effective 54.2% (#62); Youngstown St allows 52.3% (#228). Expect about 53.5%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Cleveland St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Youngstown St at about 50.3% of its shots from three, Cleveland St about 45.2%.

GlassYoungstown St

Youngstown St owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.4% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Youngstown St's offense.

ClashCleveland St

Style clash: 3-point volume

Cleveland St takes 50.8% of its shots from three; Youngstown St runs teams off the line (34.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Youngstown St has the ball

OffenseCleveland St allowsvs D1 avg

53.7% #76

57.2% #360

+6.2 pt/100

18.8% #313

15.1% #278

-0.1 pt/100

30.4% #182

36.6% #356

+1.8 pt/100

31.4% #272

35.5% #196

-0.2 pt/100

73.3% #159

—

+0.1 pt/100

Youngstown St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.9 pts/100

Cleveland St has the ball

OffenseYoungstown St allowsvs D1 avg

54.2% #62

52.3% #228

+3.1 pt/100

17.8% #262

17.8% #106

-1.6 pt/100

27.0% #294

30.7% #191

-1.4 pt/100

37.9% #105

36.0% #210

+0.2 pt/100

76.2% #48

—

+0.3 pt/100

Cleveland St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Youngstown Stoffense vsCleveland Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Youngstown St shoots

39.9

5.3

5.5

49.2

Cleveland St allows

38.0

6.0

12.0

44.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.9%#75	67.1%#361	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#337	43.0%#252	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#176	42.0%#305	38.0%
Three	33.8%#184	36.2%#309	33.7%

Cleveland Stoffense vsYoungstown Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Cleveland St shoots

33.2

4.9

11.2

50.7

Youngstown St allows

42.4

8.0

15.8

33.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.0%#160	59.8%#217	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.6%#275	37.4%#123	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.1%#310	33.6%#41	38.0%
Three	37.5%#21	35.5%#280	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Youngstown St

−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#263 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#182

Def reb %

69.3%

#191

Turnover %

18.8%

#313

Forced TO %

17.8%

#106

FT rate

31.4%

#272

FT allowed

36.0%

#210

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Cleveland St

−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#331 of 365

Off reb %

27.0%

#294

Def reb %

63.4%

#356

Turnover %

17.8%

#262

Forced TO %

15.1%

#278

FT rate

37.9%

#105

FT allowed

35.5%

#196

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−1.9

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+0.7

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Youngstown St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.8 (#263 of 365) to Cleveland St’s −4.2 (#331).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Youngstown St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Cris Carroll	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	30.3	17.4	5.2	1.8	2.7	59.4%	39.6%	7.1	78.0%	32.7%
9	Bryson Dawkins	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	26.8	12.6	4.6	1.4	1.5	56.9%	30.7%	3.2	61.4%	27.5%
2	Rich Rolf	F	Jr	6'7"	31-30	26.6	9.1	4.5	2.1	1.0	56.7%	36.8%	4.0	88.1%	19.4%
0	Jason Nelson	G	Sr	5'10"	31-31	25.0	6.9	2.8	2.9	1.6	44.1%	28.0%	2.4	75.0%	20.3%
6	Drew King	G	Jr	6'3"	32-1	17.4	2.8	3.1	2.9	1.2	50.9%	29.4%	0.5	71.1%	12.5%
1	Cam Polak	G	Sr	6'2"	29-10	17.2	5.8	1.6	0.6	1.1	55.3%	38.5%	3.6	79.3%	21.5%
7	Vlad Salaridze	F	Sr	6'7"	27-4	17.7	8.4	4.3	1.5	1.0	50.9%	33.3%	2.4	77.6%	28.3%
10	Imanuel Zorgvol	C	Sr	7'0"	32-14	14.7	5.7	2.8	0.3	0.9	65.2%	33.3%	0.4	69.6%	21.7%
8	Jaiden Haynes	G	Fr	6'3"	21-2	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.3	52.9%	33.3%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Tyler Robinett	F	Sr	6'8"	11-4	12.5	3.0	2.7	0.5	0.5	44.1%	16.7%	1.1	50.0%	18.5%
5	Shaheed Solebo	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	6.7	2.3	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	16.7%	0.9	53.8%	35.7%
3	Derrick Anderson	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	5.5	2.7	0.7	1.0	0.0	57.7%	16.7%	1.0	50.0%	38.7%
21	Connor Swider	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Markus Navarra	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cleveland St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Tre Beard	G	Sr	5'10"	30-30	30.9	12.6	3.2	3.3	1.2	58.6%	41.9%	6.8	85.7%	20.5%
2	Jaidon Lipscomb	G	Sr	6'5"	33-32	27.4	12.9	3.1	3.0	2.0	61.2%	41.7%	7.0	85.5%	24.5%
1	Chevalier Emery	G	Jr	6'0"	33-1	21.8	12.7	1.2	2.0	2.0	54.9%	38.2%	4.0	78.0%	32.3%
7	Dayan Nessah	F	So	6'7"	26-26	27.4	15.5	6.4	2.5	2.7	57.0%	33.3%	0.9	75.0%	30.9%
0	Foster Wonders	G	Sr	6'5"	31-9	22.1	5.4	2.0	0.8	0.4	53.0%	34.4%	3.9	72.7%	13.7%
22	Josiah Harris	F	Jr	6'7"	22-14	26.6	9.0	6.6	1.9	1.4	49.4%	33.0%	4.1	81.3%	20.4%
24	Kamari Jones	G	So	6'4"	23-4	10.9	4.3	1.0	0.4	0.4	47.1%	31.7%	2.6	78.3%	23.6%
5	David Giddens	G	Jr	6'7"	22-3	10.1	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	29.6%	2.5	70.0%	22.3%
23	Manny Hill	G	Sr	6'0"	19-0	6.9	2.4	1.1	0.7	0.6	47.4%	33.3%	0.3	69.2%	23.6%
15	Ivan Spirov	F	Jr	6'8"	17-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	54.4%	33.3%	0.5	—	18.7%
13	Lucas Burton	F	Sr	6'8"	13-1	7.3	2.9	1.2	0.5	0.2	61.5%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	19.3%
50	Kevo St. Hilaire	F	Fr	6'10"	15-0	5.2	1.2	1.3	0.1	0.2	58.3%	—	0.0	40.0%	14.4%
11	Waqo Tessema	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Youngstown St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Cris Carroll	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	30.3	17.4	5.2	1.8	2.7	59.4%	39.6%	7.1	78.0%	32.7%
9	Bryson Dawkins	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	26.8	12.6	4.6	1.4	1.5	56.9%	30.7%	3.2	61.4%	27.5%
2	Rich Rolf	F	Jr	6'7"	31-30	26.6	9.1	4.5	2.1	1.0	56.7%	36.8%	4.0	88.1%	19.4%
0	Jason Nelson	G	Sr	5'10"	31-31	25.0	6.9	2.8	2.9	1.6	44.1%	28.0%	2.4	75.0%	20.3%
6	Drew King	G	Jr	6'3"	32-1	17.4	2.8	3.1	2.9	1.2	50.9%	29.4%	0.5	71.1%	12.5%
1	Cam Polak	G	Sr	6'2"	29-10	17.2	5.8	1.6	0.6	1.1	55.3%	38.5%	3.6	79.3%	21.5%
7	Vlad Salaridze	F	Sr	6'7"	27-4	17.7	8.4	4.3	1.5	1.0	50.9%	33.3%	2.4	77.6%	28.3%
10	Imanuel Zorgvol	C	Sr	7'0"	32-14	14.7	5.7	2.8	0.3	0.9	65.2%	33.3%	0.4	69.6%	21.7%
8	Jaiden Haynes	G	Fr	6'3"	21-2	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.3	52.9%	33.3%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Tyler Robinett	F	Sr	6'8"	11-4	12.5	3.0	2.7	0.5	0.5	44.1%	16.7%	1.1	50.0%	18.5%
5	Shaheed Solebo	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	6.7	2.3	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	16.7%	0.9	53.8%	35.7%
3	Derrick Anderson	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	5.5	2.7	0.7	1.0	0.0	57.7%	16.7%	1.0	50.0%	38.7%
21	Connor Swider	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Markus Navarra	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Youngstown St

Against the spread

Season

10-18-1

Home

4-8

Road

5-9-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.9

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

5-7

Road

10-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.8

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 53–68	+4.0	L−11.0	143.5	U121	84.9	109.0	62.4
Feb 28	Green BayAdjEM #222	A	L 63–85	+1.5	L−20.5	142.0	O148	96.4	130.0	65.4
Feb 25	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	A	L 65–78	−1.0	L−14.0	148.5	U143	94.9	113.9	68.5
Feb 22	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	W 64–58	−2.0	W+4.0	152.5	U122	86.5	78.4	73.9
Feb 18	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 106–82	−11.0	W+13.0	156.5	O188	151.0	116.8	70.2
Feb 15	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 70–76	−3.0	L−9.0	150.5	U146	97.9	106.3	71.5
Feb 12	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 86–82	+4.0	W+8.0	156.0	O168	123.1	117.4	69.8
Feb 7	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	L 66–72	−3.5	L−9.5	144.0	U138	102.2	111.5	64.6
Feb 4	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	W 90–61	+2.5	W+31.5	147.0	O151	141.6	96.0	63.5
Jan 30	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 85–76	−10.5	L−1.5	154.0	O161	116.0	103.7	73.3

Cleveland St

Against the spread

Season

12-18

Home

4-8

Road

6-10

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-11

Home

7-5

Road

10-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +5.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	L 61–90	+14.5	L−14.5	161.5	U151	88.1	130.0	69.2
Mar 2	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 101–93	−1.0	W+7.0	169.5	O194	121.7	112.1	83.0
Feb 28	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 64–83	+12.5	L−6.5	157.5	U147	100.1	129.8	63.9
Feb 25	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	L 70–81	+8.0	L−3.0	165.5	U151	97.0	112.2	72.2
Feb 22	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	L 86–92	+3.0	L−3.0	163.0	O178	112.8	120.7	76.2
Feb 18	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	L 82–106	+11.0	L−13.0	156.5	O188	116.8	151.0	70.2
Feb 15	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 90–102	+7.5	L−4.5	158.5	O192	121.2	137.4	74.2
Feb 12	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	L 68–85	+4.0	L−13.0	154.0	U153	108.3	135.3	62.8
Feb 7	IU IndyAdjEM #315	A	L 74–82	+2.5	L−5.5	168.5	U156	98.7	109.3	75.0
Feb 4	OaklandAdjEM #172	H	W 91–78	+8.0	W+21.0	169.5	U169	127.7	109.5	71.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Youngstown StCleveland St

Efficiency

106.8

108.3

118.5

68.3

69.9

—

Shooting

53.7%

54.2%

56.6%

52.0%

33.8%

37.5%

73.3%

76.2%

31.4%

37.9%

Ball control & glass

18.8%

17.8%

15.1%

30.4%

27.0%

30.7%

36.6%

10.8%

9.5%

9.7%

14.4%

Style

49.4%

50.8%

42.0%

33.3%

14.0%

17.7%

53.8%

57.9%

36.9%

36.1%

Roster

3.58

3.30

6'4.3"

6'3.7"

93.2%

82.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Youngstown St

Returning minutes: 93.2%Returning production: 94.3%

Lost

Tae Blackshear 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Niagara

Added

Connor Swider no D1 minutes last season
Markus Navarra no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Cleveland St

Returning minutes: 82.4%Returning production: 86.3%

Lost

Preist Ryan 20.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Canisius
Holden Pierre-Louis 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg · transferred to Quinnipiac

Added

Waqo Tessema no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 82% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Feb 18	2025-26	Cleveland St 82 – 106 Youngstown St
Sat, Jan 17	2025-26	Youngstown St 78 – 80 Cleveland St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.