CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFifth Third Arena, Cincinnati, OH

Monmouth

Efficiency #173

2025-26: 19-15 · 13-8 conf

Cincinnati

Efficiency #52

2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · TBD

64.6

win 19%

Projected

74.7

win 81%

No line posted yet.

Model: CIN −10.1 · total 139.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Cincinnati 68.5, Monmouth 68.0 → 68.2 possessions

−0.2

Cincinnati offense vs Monmouth defense

−1.3

Monmouth offense vs Cincinnati defense

−7.5

Projected total

139.2

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Cincinnati offense vs Monmouth defense

−1.3

Monmouth offense vs Cincinnati defense

+7.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Cincinnati by 10.1

10.1

Monmouth side ◂▸ Cincinnati side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Cincinnati.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cincinnati is the faster team (69.2, #136 of 365) and Monmouth the slower (67.2, #235). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

139.2

model

Projected team totals

64.6 / 74.7

Monmouth / Cincinnati

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.0#210

Monmouth

68.5#163

Cincinnati

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMonmouth

Where Monmouth struggles: shooting

Monmouth shoots an effective 49.6% (#259); Cincinnati allows 47.3% (#27). Expect about 48.3%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageCincinnati

Where Cincinnati struggles: ball control

Cincinnati turns it over on 17.0% of possessions (#203); Monmouth forces turnovers on 19.9% of opponent possessions (#27). Expect about 18.9%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Cincinnati's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Monmouth at about 35.7% of its shots from three, Cincinnati about 42.1%.

ClashCincinnati

Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers

Cincinnati (#55 in live-ball turnovers) against Monmouth (#52 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.1%. Historically Monmouth's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).

ClashCincinnati

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

Cincinnati (#15 in shot-blocking exposure) against Monmouth (#53 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.0%. Historically Monmouth's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

Monmouth has the ball

OffenseCincinnati allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #259

47.3% #27

-4.2 pt/100

16.6% #173

18.2% #89

-1.0 pt/100

31.2% #157

27.3% #45

-0.6 pt/100

32.7% #244

30.0% #58

-0.5 pt/100

75.0% #82

—

+0.2 pt/100

Monmouth net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.1 pts/100

Cincinnati has the ball

OffenseMonmouth allowsvs D1 avg

50.5% #213

50.1% #103

-1.5 pt/100

17.0% #203

19.9% #27

-2.6 pt/100

30.6% #174

32.8% #287

+0.8 pt/100

29.4% #323

32.2% #111

-0.5 pt/100

68.1% #325

—

-0.4 pt/100

Cincinnati net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Monmouthoffense vsCincinnatidefense

Share of shots by zone

Monmouth shoots

36.9

7.6

21.0

34.5

Cincinnati allows

32.5

6.5

21.1

39.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.5%#254	53.7%#35	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.0%#245	39.4%#170	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.8%#153	41.9%#298	38.0%
Three	34.2%#156	31.0%#35	33.7%

Cincinnatioffense vsMonmouthdefense

Share of shots by zone

Cincinnati shoots

28.3

7.4

21.1

43.2

Monmouth allows

40.9

6.5

14.5

38.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.9%#120	55.3%#67	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	33.6%#37	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#173	37.3%#140	38.0%
Three	33.9%#175	33.9%#174	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Monmouth

+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#95 of 365

Off reb %

31.2%

#157

Def reb %

67.2%

#287

Turnover %

16.6%

#173

Forced TO %

19.9%

#27

FT rate

32.7%

#244

FT allowed

32.2%

#111

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−0.7

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Cincinnati

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#100 of 365

Off reb %

30.6%

#174

Def reb %

72.7%

#45

Turnover %

17.0%

#203

Forced TO %

18.2%

#89

FT rate

29.4%

#323

FT allowed

30.0%

#58

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Monmouth has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.1 (#95 of 365) to Cincinnati’s +1.9 (#100).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Monmouth2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Jason Rivera-Torres	F	Jr	6'7"	34-34	35.2	15.8	8.1	2.9	1.9	46.2%	31.5%	4.9	81.0%	28.9%
13	Jack Collins	G	Sr	6'5"	31-31	34.9	7.0	4.7	4.5	2.7	43.0%	28.9%	4.6	65.3%	17.2%
7	Justin Ray	G	So	6'3"	34-21	28.4	11.3	2.1	1.2	0.6	55.4%	42.0%	4.6	88.9%	21.4%
23	Cornelius Robinson III	F	Jr	6'7"	33-25	24.9	8.0	3.9	1.2	1.3	46.9%	31.3%	0.5	64.2%	22.2%
15	Stefanos Spartalis	F	Fr	6'9"	32-30	23.6	10.7	5.1	0.9	1.5	46.5%	25.0%	0.5	85.1%	29.4%
4	Andrew Ball	G	Jr	6'9"	34-9	20.5	7.9	3.9	0.6	0.8	56.4%	30.5%	2.4	60.0%	22.5%
0	Dok Muordar	C	Sr	7'1"	33-3	12.4	4.1	2.3	0.1	0.4	51.0%	—	0.0	64.2%	20.4%
2	Kavion McClain	F	Sr	5'10"	11-11	35.6	17.1	2.8	5.5	3.5	58.0%	38.1%	5.7	84.6%	29.5%
3	Anthony Martinez	G	Fr	6'2"	25-5	6.9	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.4	27.5%	100.0%	0.0	42.9%	11.5%
5	Corey Miller	G	Jr	6'2"	9-1	13.4	3.7	0.9	1.0	0.3	60.9%	44.4%	1.0	83.3%	14.2%
24	Jinup Dobuol	F	So	6'8"	19-0	6.1	3.1	1.0	0.2	0.3	58.2%	44.0%	1.3	50.0%	28.0%
8	O'Marion Harvey	F	Fr	6'7"	14-0	3.8	0.6	0.7	0.1	0.4	80.0%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	13.5%
20	Zubayr Griffin	G	Fr	6'4"	10-0	3.6	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.2	55.0%	20.0%	0.5	—	18.6%
9	Lucas Orchard	G	So	6'3"	9-0	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.1	0.0%	18.6%
42	Quinn Peters	F	Jr	6'6"	9-0	2.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.3%
10	Jack Leahy	G	Jr	6'5"	9-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0%	—	0.0	—	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cincinnati2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
52	Moustapha Thiam	C	So	7'2"	31-31	27.2	12.8	7.1	0.5	1.4	54.9%	28.8%	1.7	63.3%	26.9%
2	Jizzle James	G	Jr	6'3"	23-21	30.0	10.9	2.2	2.1	1.7	53.7%	44.2%	4.1	77.3%	23.1%
11	Kerr Kriisa	G	Sr	6'3"	19-12	20.9	5.8	1.3	3.0	1.3	48.1%	32.0%	5.1	75.0%	18.8%
7	Keyshuan Tillery	G	Fr	6'0"	31-0	12.4	3.8	1.2	1.8	1.2	44.4%	33.3%	1.5	70.0%	24.1%
24	Tyler McKinley	F	Fr	6'9"	25-3	12.1	1.8	2.2	0.6	0.4	51.2%	0.0%	0.1	22.2%	10.7%
65	Halvine Dzellat	C	So	6'10"	26-0	8.3	2.1	2.0	0.1	0.4	55.3%	0.0%	0.0	72.2%	15.5%
17	Jordi Rodriguez	G	Fr	6'6"	15-0	8.1	2.3	1.1	0.5	0.3	40.0%	27.6%	1.9	60.0%	20.3%
13	Grant Darbyshire	G	Sr	6'2"	7-0	1.9	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0%	—	0.0	—	21.4%
0	Bryson Buckingham	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Jalen Haynes	F	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Lucas Atauri	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Monmouth2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Jason Rivera-Torres	F	Jr	6'7"	34-34	35.2	15.8	8.1	2.9	1.9	46.2%	31.5%	4.9	81.0%	28.9%
13	Jack Collins	G	Sr	6'5"	31-31	34.9	7.0	4.7	4.5	2.7	43.0%	28.9%	4.6	65.3%	17.2%
7	Justin Ray	G	So	6'3"	34-21	28.4	11.3	2.1	1.2	0.6	55.4%	42.0%	4.6	88.9%	21.4%
23	Cornelius Robinson III	F	Jr	6'7"	33-25	24.9	8.0	3.9	1.2	1.3	46.9%	31.3%	0.5	64.2%	22.2%
15	Stefanos Spartalis	F	Fr	6'9"	32-30	23.6	10.7	5.1	0.9	1.5	46.5%	25.0%	0.5	85.1%	29.4%
4	Andrew Ball	G	Jr	6'9"	34-9	20.5	7.9	3.9	0.6	0.8	56.4%	30.5%	2.4	60.0%	22.5%
0	Dok Muordar	C	Sr	7'1"	33-3	12.4	4.1	2.3	0.1	0.4	51.0%	—	0.0	64.2%	20.4%
2	Kavion McClain	F	Sr	5'10"	11-11	35.6	17.1	2.8	5.5	3.5	58.0%	38.1%	5.7	84.6%	29.5%
3	Anthony Martinez	G	Fr	6'2"	25-5	6.9	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.4	27.5%	100.0%	0.0	42.9%	11.5%
5	Corey Miller	G	Jr	6'2"	9-1	13.4	3.7	0.9	1.0	0.3	60.9%	44.4%	1.0	83.3%	14.2%
24	Jinup Dobuol	F	So	6'8"	19-0	6.1	3.1	1.0	0.2	0.3	58.2%	44.0%	1.3	50.0%	28.0%
8	O'Marion Harvey	F	Fr	6'7"	14-0	3.8	0.6	0.7	0.1	0.4	80.0%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	13.5%
20	Zubayr Griffin	G	Fr	6'4"	10-0	3.6	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.2	55.0%	20.0%	0.5	—	18.6%
9	Lucas Orchard	G	So	6'3"	9-0	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	50.0%	100.0%	0.1	0.0%	18.6%
42	Quinn Peters	F	Jr	6'6"	9-0	2.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	14.3%
10	Jack Leahy	G	Jr	6'5"	9-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0%	—	0.0	—	15.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Monmouth

Against the spread

Season

17-14-2

Home

5-6-2

Road

9-6

Last 10

6-3-1

avg cover +4.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-17

Home

5-8

Road

8-7

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.1

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	HofstraAdjEM #69	N	L 69–75	+4.0	L−2.0	135.0	O144	103.9	113.0	66.4
Mar 9	CampbellAdjEM #208	N	W 74–64	−1.5	W+8.5	152.0	U138	110.1	95.2	67.2
Mar 8	DrexelAdjEM #214	N	W 65–57	−4.0	W+4.0	137.5	U122	100.6	88.2	64.6
Mar 3	NortheasternAdjEM #274	A	W 89–83	−4.0	W+2.0	149.5	O172	132.9	123.9	67.0
Feb 28	ElonAdjEM #228	H	W 73–57	−3.5	W+12.5	153.0	U130	115.7	90.3	63.1
Feb 26	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	H	W 82–69	−4.5	W+8.5	146.5	O151	121.4	102.2	67.5
Feb 21	CharlestonAdjEM #165	A	L 63–74	+5.0	L−6.0	150.0	U137	93.5	109.9	67.4
Feb 19	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	A	L 69–79	+7.5	L−2.5	145.0	O148	95.8	109.7	72.0
Feb 15	TowsonAdjEM #149	H	W 72–71	−1.0	P0.0	137.5	O143	110.7	109.1	65.0
Feb 12	DrexelAdjEM #214	A	W 93–73	+1.0	W+21.0	134.0	O166	129.7	101.8	71.7

Cincinnati

Against the spread

Season

14-19

Home

10-8

Road

3-7

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +7.0

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-21

Home

6-12

Road

5-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +2.9

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	UCFAdjEM #70	N	L 65–66 OT	−3.5	L−4.5	149.0	U131	85.0	86.3	76.5
Mar 10	UtahAdjEM #177	N	W 73–66	−12.0	L−5.0	137.5	O139	111.3	100.6	65.6
Mar 7	TCUAdjEM #51	A	L 63–73	+2.5	L−7.5	139.5	U136	99.3	115.1	63.4
Mar 3	BYUAdjEM #26	H	W 90–68	−1.5	W+20.5	152.5	O158	125.5	94.8	71.7
Feb 28	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	H	W 91–68	−9.5	W+13.5	152.5	O159	126.7	94.7	71.8
Feb 24	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	A	L 68–80	+6.5	L−5.5	143.5	O148	111.8	131.5	60.8
Feb 21	#8KansasAdjEM #25	A	W 84–68	+9.0	W+25.0	139.0	O152	124.2	100.5	67.7
Feb 15	UtahAdjEM #177	H	W 69–65	−12.5	L−8.5	139.0	U134	108.2	101.9	63.8
Feb 11	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	W 91–62	−2.5	W+26.5	147.0	O153	129.2	88.0	70.4
Feb 8	UCFAdjEM #70	H	W 92–72	−4.5	W+15.5	146.0	O164	131.3	102.8	70.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MonmouthCincinnati

Efficiency

106.8

108.5

106.6

99.2

68.0

68.5

—

Shooting

49.6%

50.5%

48.7%

50.2%

34.2%

33.9%

75.0%

68.1%

32.7%

29.4%

Ball control & glass

16.6%

17.0%

19.9%

18.2%

31.2%

30.6%

32.8%

27.3%

9.1%

8.3%

8.7%

6.8%

Style

34.4%

43.8%

42.9%

36.8%

16.0%

15.3%

53.9%

63.7%

25.7%

29.1%

Roster

2.82

2.24

6'6.2"

6'7"

—

44.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Monmouth

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Monmouth's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Cincinnati

Returning minutes: 44.8%Returning production: 40.2%

Lost

Day Day Thomas 30.4 mpg, 11.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Baba Miller 29.9 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jalen Celestine 23.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Sencire Harris 15.9 mpg, 5.4 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
Shon Abaev 11.6 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Florida St

Added

Jalen Haynes no D1 minutes last season
Bryson Buckingham no D1 minutes last season
Lucas Atauri no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 45% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.