CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceEllis T. Johnson Arena, Morehead, KY
Bellarmine
Efficiency #281
2025-26: 13-19 · 8-12 conf
@
Morehead St
Efficiency #266
2025-26: 20-13 · 16-6 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
74.8
win 36%
Projected
79.1
win 64%
No line posted yet.
Model: MORE −4.3 · total 153.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Morehead St 67.0, Bellarmine 66.5 → 65.2 possessions
−6.7
Morehead St offense vs Bellarmine defense
+6.4
Bellarmine offense vs Morehead St defense
+5.9
Projected total
153.9
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Morehead St offense vs Bellarmine defense
+6.4
Bellarmine offense vs Morehead St defense
−5.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Morehead St by 4.3
4.3
Bellarmine side ◂▸ Morehead St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.8 against a projected 153.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Morehead St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Morehead St is the faster team (66.8, #251 of 365) and Bellarmine the slower (66.2, #287). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.9
model
Projected team totals
74.8 / 79.1
Bellarmine / Morehead St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.5#319
Bellarmine
67.0#288
Morehead St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageBellarmine
Where Bellarmine scores: shooting
Bellarmine shoots an effective 59.4% (#3); Morehead St allows 50.2% (#109). Expect about 55.4%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageMorehead St
Where Morehead St scores: shooting
Morehead St shoots an effective 49.2% (#285); Bellarmine allows 59.4% (#365). Expect about 54.2%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.
GlassMorehead St
Morehead St owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.0% is worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions for Morehead St's offense.
Pace
Half-court grind
Morehead St averages 66.8 possessions per 40, Bellarmine 66.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Bellarmine, Bellarmine's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bellarmine at about 40.6% of its shots from three, Morehead St about 39.4%.
TurnoversBellarmine
Bellarmine protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Bellarmine's offense.
Bellarmine has the ball
OffenseMorehead St allowsvs D1 avg
59.4% #3
50.2% #109
+5.9 pt/100
15.5% #104
15.4% #258
+1.9 pt/100
22.4% #354
35.8% #351
-1.8 pt/100
35.0% #178
35.6% #201
+0.0 pt/100
78.8% #7
—
+0.6 pt/100
Bellarmine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.7 pts/100
Morehead St has the ball
OffenseBellarmine allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #285
59.4% #365
+4.1 pt/100
18.0% #272
15.0% #287
+0.5 pt/100
35.8% #27
34.2% #320
+3.4 pt/100
37.7% #109
34.3% #157
+0.1 pt/100
74.1% #125
—
+0.2 pt/100
Morehead St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersBellarmineoffense vsMorehead Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Bellarmine shoots
47.4
5.9
5.9
40.7
Morehead St allows
39.7
6.2
15.3
38.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.7%#9 | 54.7%#55 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.4%#137 | 34.3%#49 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.8%#234 | 34.9%#74 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.1%#17 | 34.5%#221 | 33.7% |
Morehead Stoffense vsBellarminedefense
Share of shots by zone
Morehead St shoots
39.8
8.7
21.1
30.4
Bellarmine allows
33.1
6.3
10.1
50.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.1%#270 | 67.7%#363 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#122 | 35.6%#79 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.7%#86 | 39.5%#221 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.0%#281 | 40.4%#364 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBellarmine
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#324 of 365
Off reb %
22.4%
#354
Def reb %
65.8%
#320
Turnover %
15.5%
#104
Forced TO %
15.0%
#287
FT rate
35.0%
#178
FT allowed
34.3%
#157
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.6
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Morehead St
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#234 of 365
Off reb %
35.8%
#27
Def reb %
64.2%
#351
Turnover %
18.0%
#272
Forced TO %
15.4%
#258
FT rate
37.7%
#109
FT allowed
35.6%
#201
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Morehead St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.0 (#234 of 365) to Bellarmine’s −3.7 (#324).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Bellarmine2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kenyon Goodin | G | So | 6'3" | 31-31 | 32.6 | 11.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 62.7% | 41.8% | 5.1 | 87.3% | 17.5% | |
| 11 | Brian Waddell | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-31 | 31.2 | 15.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 67.5% | 41.9% | 1.9 | 79.8% | 23.9% | |
| 32 | Jack Karasinski | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-30 | 29.8 | 21.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 65.5% | 41.5% | 5.7 | 80.7% | 34.5% | |
| 23 | Sam Donald | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-29 | 26.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 63.9% | 42.1% | 2.5 | 76.5% | 13.0% | |
| 2 | Tyler Doyle | G | So | 6'5" | 26-23 | 27.8 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 56.0% | 33.3% | 1.6 | 76.1% | 21.9% | |
| 7 | Donovan Hunter | F | Jr | 6'8" | 29-1 | 13.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 46.3% | 32.1% | 2.7 | 60.0% | 22.7% | |
| 5 | Myles Watkins | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-2 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 53.0% | 21.4% | 0.5 | 90.9% | 21.9% | |
| 22 | Darrius Bolden | G | Sr | 6'1" | 28-6 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 34.8% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 68.8% | 10.5% | |
| 44 | Jacob Wassler | C | Fr | 6'11" | 22-0 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 54.4% | 35.7% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 17.6% | |
| 10 | Grant Whitaker | G | So | 6'4" | 26-3 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 0.4 | 72.7% | 16.0% | |
| 0 | Tommy Clark | G | Fr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 58.3% | 35.7% | 1.2 | 100.0% | 21.4% | |
| 4 | Grant Neal | G | Fr | 6'3" | 11-0 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 52.5% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 36.4% | |
| 14 | Dominique Murphy | F | Fr | 6'5" | 4-0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 25.7% | |
| 15 | Luke Anderson | F | So | 6'8" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 1 | Ant McAfee | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Morehead St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | George Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 51.8% | 37.7% | 5.1 | 83.4% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Davion Cunningham | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-9 | 27.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 45.2% | 30.0% | 2.2 | 73.1% | 29.3% | |
| 10 | Chase Dawson | G | So | 6'0" | 33-25 | 25.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Anouar Mellouk | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-24 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 53.3% | 25.7% | 1.1 | 58.6% | 20.7% | |
| 4 | Jon Carroll | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-23 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Josiah LeGree | G | So | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 51.8% | 36.9% | 2.5 | 81.5% | 28.4% | |
| 5 | Vince Dawson III | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-10 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 53.8% | 38.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 13.0% | |
| 24 | Tamaury Releford | C | Sr | 6'9" | 33-10 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 64.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 22.5% | |
| 22 | Tyonne Farrell | F | So | 6'6" | 27-14 | 13.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 52.5% | 22.1% | |
| 33 | Clayton Parker | F | Fr | 6'8" | 21-8 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 37.1% | 18.9% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 19.2% | |
| 12 | Jace Winkleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 55.6% | 33.3% | 1.2 | — | 35.3% | |
| 1 | Jacob Wilson | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 24.7% | |
| 15 | Jaden Priester | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Jarvis Wright | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Kameren Wright | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Bellarmine2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kenyon Goodin | G | So | 6'3" | 31-31 | 32.6 | 11.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 62.7% | 41.8% | 5.1 | 87.3% | 17.5% | |
| 11 | Brian Waddell | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-31 | 31.2 | 15.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 67.5% | 41.9% | 1.9 | 79.8% | 23.9% | |
| 32 | Jack Karasinski | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-30 | 29.8 | 21.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 65.5% | 41.5% | 5.7 | 80.7% | 34.5% | |
| 23 | Sam Donald | F | Fr | 6'8" | 30-29 | 26.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 63.9% | 42.1% | 2.5 | 76.5% | 13.0% | |
| 2 | Tyler Doyle | G | So | 6'5" | 26-23 | 27.8 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 56.0% | 33.3% | 1.6 | 76.1% | 21.9% | |
| 7 | Donovan Hunter | F | Jr | 6'8" | 29-1 | 13.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 46.3% | 32.1% | 2.7 | 60.0% | 22.7% | |
| 5 | Myles Watkins | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-2 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 53.0% | 21.4% | 0.5 | 90.9% | 21.9% | |
| 22 | Darrius Bolden | G | Sr | 6'1" | 28-6 | 10.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 34.8% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 68.8% | 10.5% | |
| 44 | Jacob Wassler | C | Fr | 6'11" | 22-0 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 54.4% | 35.7% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 17.6% | |
| 10 | Grant Whitaker | G | So | 6'4" | 26-3 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 0.4 | 72.7% | 16.0% | |
| 0 | Tommy Clark | G | Fr | 6'3" | 12-0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 58.3% | 35.7% | 1.2 | 100.0% | 21.4% | |
| 4 | Grant Neal | G | Fr | 6'3" | 11-0 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 52.5% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 36.4% | |
| 14 | Dominique Murphy | F | Fr | 6'5" | 4-0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 25.7% | |
| 15 | Luke Anderson | F | So | 6'8" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 1 | Ant McAfee | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Bellarmine
Against the spread
Season
17-13
Home
10-3
Road
6-9
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +3.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
20-10
Home
7-6
Road
11-4
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +11.7
Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | C Arkansas | N | L 73–86 | +8.0 | L−5.0 | 155.0 | O159 | 115.6 | 136.2 | 63.1 |
| Mar 4 | Jacksonville | N | W 82–79 | −2.0 | W+1.0 | 146.5 | O161 | 128.6 | 123.8 | 63.8 |
| Feb 28 | Austin Peay | H | W 111–97 | +5.5 | W+19.5 | 155.0 | O208 | 134.2 | 117.3 | 82.7 |
| Feb 25 | North Alabama | A | L 68–73 | −3.0 | L−8.0 | 147.0 | U141 | 115.5 | 124.0 | 58.8 |
| Feb 21 | E Kentucky | H | L 92–95 | +2.0 | L−1.0 | 153.0 | O187 | 144.3 | 149.0 | 63.7 |
| Feb 18 | Lipscomb | H | L 72–75 | +3.5 | W+0.5 | 155.5 | U147 | 112.5 | 117.2 | 64.0 |
| Feb 14 | Austin Peay | A | L 70–90 | +9.5 | L−10.5 | 153.0 | O160 | 115.7 | 148.8 | 60.5 |
| Feb 11 | C Arkansas | A | L 76–84 | +7.5 | L−0.5 | 149.5 | O160 | 115.9 | 128.0 | 65.6 |
| Feb 7 | FGCU | H | W 81–65 | +2.0 | W+18.0 | 152.5 | U146 | 120.3 | 96.5 | 67.3 |
| Feb 5 | Stetson | H | W 92–71 | −4.5 | W+16.5 | 148.5 | O163 | 149.6 | 115.5 | 61.5 |
Morehead St
Against the spread
Season
18-12
Home
7-3
Road
10-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
6-4
Road
8-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.9
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Tennessee St | N | L 67–93 | +5.0 | L−21.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 96.0 | 133.2 | 69.8 |
| Mar 6 | SE Missouri | N | W 66–61 | +4.0 | W+9.0 | 139.5 | U127 | 102.1 | 94.4 | 64.6 |
| Feb 26 | Little Rock | A | W 76–70 | +2.5 | W+8.5 | 139.0 | O146 | 117.8 | 108.5 | 64.5 |
| Feb 24 | S Indiana | H | W 64–63 | −7.5 | L−6.5 | 142.5 | U127 | 105.7 | 104.0 | 60.5 |
| Feb 21 | W Illinois | A | W 81–59 | −8.0 | W+14.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 127.6 | 92.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 19 | E Illinois | A | W 73–70 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 136.5 | O143 | 110.0 | 105.5 | 66.3 |
| Feb 14 | Tennessee St | H | W 94–86 | +1.5 | W+9.5 | 151.0 | O180 | 135.8 | 124.3 | 69.2 |
| Feb 12 | Tennessee Tech | H | W 73–66 | −4.0 | W+3.0 | 144.0 | U139 | 117.1 | 105.9 | 62.3 |
| Feb 7 | UT Martin | A | W 61–55 | +9.0 | W+15.0 | 136.0 | U116 | 101.3 | 91.3 | 60.2 |
| Feb 5 | SE Missouri | A | L 70–82 | +7.5 | L−4.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 99.9 | 117.1 | 70.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBellarmineMorehead St
Efficiency
113.2
107.5
119.4
112.8
66.5
67.0
—
—
Shooting
59.4%
49.2%
61.0%
49.7%
38.1%
32.0%
78.8%
74.1%
35.0%
37.7%
Ball control & glass
15.5%
18.0%
15.0%
15.4%
22.4%
35.8%
34.2%
35.8%
9.1%
10.6%
9.1%
9.2%
Style
41.2%
30.5%
47.0%
45.0%
9.2%
12.1%
53.4%
47.4%
28.4%
38.1%
Roster
2.70
2.81
6'5.8"
6'4.7"
93.7%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBellarmine
Returning minutes: 93.7%Returning production: 94.6%
Lost
- Michael Wilson Jr. 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius
Added
- Ant McAfee no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Morehead St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.