CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gamePinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE

Ohio State

Efficiency #31

2025-26: 21-13 · 13-9 conf

Nebraska

Efficiency #17

2025-26: 28-7 · 15-6 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · TBD

69.8

win 30%

Projected

75.9

win 70%

No line posted yet.

Model: NEB −6.1 · total 145.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Nebraska 67.7, Ohio State 67.5 → 66.9 possessions

−3.1

Nebraska offense vs Ohio State defense

+1.4

Ohio State offense vs Nebraska defense

−0.8

Projected total

145.7

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Nebraska offense vs Ohio State defense

+1.4

Ohio State offense vs Nebraska defense

+0.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Nebraska by 6.1

6.1

Ohio State side ◂▸ Nebraska side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +6.0 against +6.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Nebraska.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Nebraska is the faster team (66.8, #252 of 365) and Ohio State the slower (66.4, #278). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.7

model

Projected team totals

69.8 / 75.9

Ohio State / Nebraska

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.5#253

Ohio State

67.7#228

Nebraska

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageNebraska

Where Nebraska scores: shooting

Nebraska shoots an effective 55.5% (#28); Ohio State allows 50.2% (#114). Expect about 53.2%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversNebraska

Nebraska protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.7% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for Nebraska's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Nebraska's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Ohio State at about 46.8% of its shots from three, Nebraska about 49.3%.

AdvantageOhio State

Where Ohio State scores: shooting

Ohio State shoots an effective 56.2% (#19); Nebraska allows 48.1% (#40). Expect about 52.5%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.

GlassNebraska

Nebraska gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Nebraska's offense.

Ohio State has the ball

OffenseNebraska allowsvs D1 avg

56.2% #19

48.1% #40

+1.8 pt/100

15.3% #91

18.9% #54

-0.7 pt/100

30.4% #185

27.4% #47

-0.9 pt/100

37.2% #122

25.1% #7

-0.6 pt/100

77.7% #21

—

+0.5 pt/100

Ohio State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.1 pts/100

Nebraska has the ball

OffenseOhio State allowsvs D1 avg

55.5% #28

50.2% #114

+2.8 pt/100

14.4% #40

15.6% #242

+2.5 pt/100

26.7% #306

30.0% #160

-1.7 pt/100

26.2% #356

34.7% #170

-0.6 pt/100

75.5% #64

—

+0.3 pt/100

Nebraska net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Ohio Stateoffense vsNebraskadefense

Share of shots by zone

Ohio State shoots

31.3

9.5

18.8

40.4

Nebraska allows

23.8

5.7

19.3

51.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.1%#14	64.2%#342	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.3%#12	40.6%#202	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	47.6%#4	35.0%#76	38.0%
Three	35.7%#72	30.5%#19	33.7%

Nebraskaoffense vsOhio Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Nebraska shoots

31.8

5.5

11.3

51.3

Ohio State allows

31.5

8.2

20.1

40.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	68.2%#4	59.8%#220	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.6%#253	38.4%#143	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#288	42.7%#328	38.0%
Three	35.5%#91	31.9%#57	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Ohio State

+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#132 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#185

Def reb %

70.0%

#160

Turnover %

15.3%

#91

Forced TO %

15.6%

#242

FT rate

37.2%

#122

FT allowed

34.7%

#170

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.1

Nebraska

+3.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#49 of 365

Off reb %

26.7%

#306

Def reb %

72.6%

#47

Turnover %

14.4%

#40

Forced TO %

18.9%

#54

FT rate

26.2%

#356

FT allowed

25.1%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security+1.6

Forcing turnovers+1.5

Foul shots drawn−2.3

Foul shots allowed+2.6

Nebraska has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.3 (#49 of 365) to Ohio State’s +1.2 (#132).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Ohio State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Devin Royal	F	Jr	6'6"	32-32	32.5	13.7	5.7	1.6	1.7	52.5%	31.6%	3.1	80.2%	25.1%
0	John Mobley Jr.	G	So	6'1"	31-31	31.6	15.7	2.4	2.8	1.8	56.7%	41.1%	7.6	86.8%	28.2%
1	Amare Bynum	F	Fr	6'8"	34-24	28.5	9.7	4.9	1.1	1.1	56.1%	30.8%	2.7	72.6%	20.2%
4	Gabe Cupps	G	So	6'2"	33-0	12.2	1.7	1.1	1.1	0.6	45.6%	25.9%	0.8	73.7%	11.2%
3	Taison Chatman	G	So	6'4"	28-3	12.9	4.3	1.2	0.8	0.8	59.8%	47.1%	1.8	85.0%	19.8%
7	Ivan Njegovan	C	So	7'1"	30-2	11.4	2.6	3.0	0.7	0.6	58.8%	66.7%	0.1	65.5%	14.7%
14	Brandon Noel	F	Sr	6'8"	16-10	18.9	6.6	3.7	0.9	1.0	65.1%	20.0%	0.9	73.3%	18.3%
6	Puff Johnson	G	Sr	6'8"	9-1	11.4	2.3	1.1	0.1	0.4	41.7%	42.9%	0.8	66.7%	15.3%
9	Mathieu Grujicic	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.5	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.2	18.8%	14.3%	1.2	42.9%	20.7%
55	Braylen Nash	G	So	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
17	Josh Ojianwuna	F	Sr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Myles Herro	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Nebraska2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Pryce Sandfort	F	Jr	6'7"	35-35	33.6	18.1	4.9	2.0	0.7	62.1%	41.6%	8.9	85.5%	26.5%
10	Jamarques Lawrence	G	Sr	6'3"	35-35	27.9	9.8	2.4	3.8	2.0	52.2%	35.5%	4.4	75.6%	23.2%
9	Berke Buyuktuncel	F	Jr	6'10"	33-33	24.3	6.5	5.6	1.9	1.2	50.6%	24.1%	1.6	61.2%	18.3%
5	Braden Frager	F	Fr	6'7"	33-2	23.7	11.8	3.8	1.0	1.0	59.1%	35.2%	4.9	80.5%	26.8%
31	Cale Jacobsen	G	Jr	6'4"	35-1	19.7	4.6	2.9	1.3	0.6	58.5%	36.6%	1.2	59.5%	13.9%
15	Jared Garcia	F	Sr	6'8"	28-0	8.3	3.0	2.1	0.3	0.7	39.2%	24.4%	1.5	77.8%	28.7%
0	Connor Essegian	G	Sr	6'4"	7-0	13.9	5.4	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	25.8%	4.4	50.0%	28.9%
2	Kendall Blue	G	Sr	6'6"	19-0	3.5	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.4	42.3%	37.5%	0.4	100.0%	18.6%
33	Leo Curtis	F	Fr	7'1"	15-0	4.2	1.8	0.6	0.3	0.3	58.8%	0.0%	0.2	87.5%	24.0%
7	Justin Bolis	F	So	6'8"	14-0	1.8	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	13.9%
13	Ugnius Jarusevicius	F	Sr	6'11"	1-0	11.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	116.7%	100.0%	1.0	0.0%	28.6%
35	Henry Burt	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Quentin Rhymes	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Will Cooper	F	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Ohio State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Devin Royal	F	Jr	6'6"	32-32	32.5	13.7	5.7	1.6	1.7	52.5%	31.6%	3.1	80.2%	25.1%
0	John Mobley Jr.	G	So	6'1"	31-31	31.6	15.7	2.4	2.8	1.8	56.7%	41.1%	7.6	86.8%	28.2%
1	Amare Bynum	F	Fr	6'8"	34-24	28.5	9.7	4.9	1.1	1.1	56.1%	30.8%	2.7	72.6%	20.2%
4	Gabe Cupps	G	So	6'2"	33-0	12.2	1.7	1.1	1.1	0.6	45.6%	25.9%	0.8	73.7%	11.2%
3	Taison Chatman	G	So	6'4"	28-3	12.9	4.3	1.2	0.8	0.8	59.8%	47.1%	1.8	85.0%	19.8%
7	Ivan Njegovan	C	So	7'1"	30-2	11.4	2.6	3.0	0.7	0.6	58.8%	66.7%	0.1	65.5%	14.7%
14	Brandon Noel	F	Sr	6'8"	16-10	18.9	6.6	3.7	0.9	1.0	65.1%	20.0%	0.9	73.3%	18.3%
6	Puff Johnson	G	Sr	6'8"	9-1	11.4	2.3	1.1	0.1	0.4	41.7%	42.9%	0.8	66.7%	15.3%
9	Mathieu Grujicic	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.5	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.2	18.8%	14.3%	1.2	42.9%	20.7%
55	Braylen Nash	G	So	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
17	Josh Ojianwuna	F	Sr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Myles Herro	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Ohio State

Against the spread

Season

17-16-1

Home

7-9-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +6.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-18

Home

10-7

Road

4-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.5

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#9TCUAdjEM #51	N	L 64–66	−2.0	L−4.0	146.0	U130	102.5	105.7	62.4
Mar 13	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 67–71	+12.5	W+8.5	155.0	U138	100.0	106.0	67.0
Mar 12	IowaAdjEM #22	N	W 72–69	+1.5	W+4.5	140.5	O141	124.1	118.9	58.0
Mar 7	IndianaAdjEM #45	H	W 91–78	−4.0	W+9.0	148.0	O169	134.0	114.8	67.9
Mar 4	Penn StateAdjEM #194	A	W 94–62	−7.0	W+25.0	152.0	O156	145.1	95.7	64.8
Mar 1	#8PurdueAdjEM #9	H	W 82–74	+6.5	W+14.5	149.5	O156	133.4	120.4	61.5
Feb 25	IowaAdjEM #22	A	L 57–74	+6.0	L−11.0	140.5	U131	97.4	126.4	58.5
Feb 22	#15Michigan StAdjEM #11	A	L 60–66	+10.0	W+4.0	147.0	U126	98.4	108.2	61.0
Feb 17	#24WisconsinAdjEM #28	H	W 86–69	−1.0	W+16.0	157.5	U155	125.0	100.3	68.8
Feb 14	#15VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 66–70	+5.0	W+1.0	147.0	U136	100.4	106.5	65.7

Nebraska

Against the spread

Season

19-15-1

Home

8-9-1

Road

7-3

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-23

Home

4-14

Road

4-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.5

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 26	#9IowaAdjEM #22	N	L 71–77	−1.5	L−7.5	131.0	O148	117.4	127.4	60.5
Mar 21	#5VanderbiltAdjEM #12	N	W 74–72	+2.0	W+4.0	147.5	U146	115.8	112.7	63.9
Mar 19	#13TroyAdjEM #136	N	W 76–47	−13.0	W+16.0	139.5	U123	125.1	77.4	60.8
Mar 13	#18PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 58–74	+4.5	L−11.5	146.0	U132	95.9	122.4	60.5
Mar 8	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 84–75 OT	−5.0	W+4.0	136.5	O159	112.8	100.7	74.5
Mar 3	UCLAAdjEM #37	A	L 52–72	−1.0	L−21.0	144.5	U124	85.7	118.7	60.6
Feb 28	USCAdjEM #97	A	W 82–67	−5.0	W+10.0	148.5	O149	119.1	97.3	68.8
Feb 25	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 74–61	−16.5	L−3.5	141.0	U135	116.4	95.9	63.6
Feb 21	Penn StateAdjEM #194	H	W 87–64	−17.5	W+5.5	147.5	O151	125.4	92.2	69.4
Feb 17	IowaAdjEM #22	A	L 52–57	+1.0	L−4.0	139.5	U109	86.5	94.8	60.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Ohio StateNebraska

Efficiency

117.4

114.2

104.9

98.3

67.5

67.7

—

Shooting

56.2%

55.5%

58.0%

35.7%

35.5%

77.7%

75.5%

37.2%

26.2%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

14.4%

15.6%

18.9%

30.4%

26.7%

30.0%

27.4%

8.1%

7.6%

8.9%

9.1%

Style

40.1%

51.1%

43.4%

40.1%

8.5%

8.1%

52.6%

65.9%

23.7%

26.7%

Roster

2.19

2.93

6'5.5"

6'6.3"

66.1%

69.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Ohio State

Returning minutes: 66.1%Returning production: 58.1%

Lost

Bruce Thornton 36.6 mpg, 19.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christoph Tilly 24.5 mpg, 10.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Colin White 7.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Akron

Added

Myles Herro no D1 minutes last season
Josh Ojianwuna no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 66% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Nebraska

Returning minutes: 69.8%Returning production: 67.0%

Lost

Sam Hoiberg 32.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Rienk Mast 28.5 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Quentin Rhymes no D1 minutes last season
Henry Burt no D1 minutes last season
Will Cooper no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 70% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Jan 5	2025-26	Nebraska 72 – 69 Ohio State

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.