CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHilton Coliseum, Ames, IA

Alcorn St

Efficiency #355

2025-26: 9-23 · 8-12 conf

Iowa State

Efficiency #7

2025-26: 29-8 · 14-7 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · TBD

58.8

win 1%

Projected

87.1

win 99%

No line posted yet.

Model: ISU −28.3 · total 145.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Iowa State 68.2, Alcorn St 68.6 → 68.5 possessions

+0.5

Iowa State offense vs Alcorn St defense

+10.8

Alcorn St offense vs Iowa State defense

−13.6

Projected total

145.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Iowa State offense vs Alcorn St defense

+10.8

Alcorn St offense vs Iowa State defense

+13.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Iowa State by 28.3

28.3

Alcorn St side ◂▸ Iowa State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iowa State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Alcorn St is the faster team (69.4, #119 of 365) and Iowa State the slower (68.5, #173). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.9

model

Projected team totals

58.8 / 87.1

Alcorn St / Iowa State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#154

Alcorn St

68.2#188

Iowa State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageIowa State

Where Iowa State scores: shooting

Iowa State shoots an effective 56.2% (#20); Alcorn St allows 55.0% (#330). Expect about 56.0%, 4.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageAlcorn St

Where Alcorn St struggles: ball control

Alcorn St turns it over on 19.6% of possessions (#339); Iowa State forces turnovers on 22.6% of opponent possessions (#4). Expect about 22.1%, 5.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.5 points per 100 possessions.

GlassIowa State

Iowa State owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.2% is worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions for Iowa State's offense.

DefenseIowa State

Iowa State's ball-hawking

Iowa State ranks #9 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.3% of Alcorn St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

GlassAlcorn St

Alcorn St gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.1% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Alcorn St's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Iowa State) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Alcorn St at about 36.8% of its shots from three, Iowa State about 36.1%.

Alcorn St has the ball

OffenseIowa State allowsvs D1 avg

47.7% #320

49.8% #92

-4.1 pt/100

19.6% #339

22.6% #4

-6.5 pt/100

26.9% #297

28.6% #85

-2.0 pt/100

31.8% #259

28.1% #33

-0.7 pt/100

70.8% #245

—

-0.1 pt/100

Alcorn St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -13.4 pts/100

Iowa State has the ball

OffenseAlcorn St allowsvs D1 avg

56.2% #20

55.0% #330

+6.8 pt/100

14.9% #59

18.1% #93

+0.3 pt/100

35.2% #45

35.5% #347

+3.5 pt/100

34.5% #194

39.4% #293

+0.3 pt/100

67.5% #333

—

-0.4 pt/100

Iowa State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Alcorn Stoffense vsIowa Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Alcorn St shoots

40.5

7.1

18.6

33.8

Iowa State allows

29.2

8.4

19.4

43.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.2%#319	63.4%#332	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#133	39.4%#168	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.4%#351	34.6%#64	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	32.0%#63	33.7%

Iowa Stateoffense vsAlcorn Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Iowa State shoots

38.2

8.6

14.9

38.3

Alcorn St allows

45.8

5.4

13.5

35.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.2%#20	65.9%#356	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.1%#220	39.5%#175	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.3%#210	34.7%#68	38.0%
Three	38.3%#12	33.0%#120	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Alcorn St

−5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#352 of 365

Off reb %

26.9%

#297

Def reb %

64.5%

#347

Turnover %

19.6%

#339

Forced TO %

18.1%

#93

FT rate

31.8%

#259

FT allowed

39.4%

#293

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.9

Forcing turnovers+0.9

Foul shots drawn−0.8

Foul shots allowed−1.1

Iowa State

+9.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#2 of 365

Off reb %

35.2%

#45

Def reb %

71.4%

#85

Turnover %

14.9%

#59

Forced TO %

22.6%

FT rate

34.5%

#194

FT allowed

28.1%

#33

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.5

Defensive rebounding+0.7

Ball security+1.3

Forcing turnovers+4.0

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed+1.8

Iowa State has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.2 (#2 of 365) to Alcorn St’s −5.5 (#352).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Alcorn St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Alcorn St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Nick Woodard	SF	Sr	6'6"	32-32	28.7	8.6	4.2	1.3	1.6	46.5%	30.8%	3.3	61.7%	21.1%
0	Shane Lancaster	G	Jr	6'4"	32-26	28.6	10.8	2.3	2.2	1.2	53.6%	43.0%	4.4	72.5%	21.8%
1	Jameel Morris	PG	Jr	6'1"	30-25	29.5	11.2	2.5	2.9	2.2	48.5%	29.0%	2.3	78.9%	24.9%
8	Tycen McDaniels	F	Jr	6'8"	32-32	27.3	12.0	6.1	1.0	2.6	52.8%	25.0%	0.3	75.4%	27.5%
3	Davian Williams	PG	So	5'10"	32-16	26.4	7.8	2.9	1.3	1.6	44.2%	32.5%	3.8	68.0%	21.7%
12	Omari Hamilton	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	21.4	7.8	4.5	0.5	1.2	48.5%	35.4%	1.5	69.6%	23.4%
30	Travis Roberts	SG	Sr	6'6"	31-10	16.5	3.6	1.7	0.4	0.5	41.5%	29.1%	2.5	50.0%	16.6%
4	Bryson Calamese	PG	Jr	6'2"	31-1	11.1	3.0	0.9	1.2	1.1	38.7%	28.6%	0.9	73.3%	23.5%
22	Mike Jones	SG	Fr	6'7"	13-5	15.0	3.5	3.4	1.1	1.2	40.2%	11.1%	0.7	47.1%	19.5%
2	Jeremy Ellis	PF	Jr	6'6"	22-0	6.3	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	42.9%	—	0.0	83.3%	11.8%
6	William Henderson	F	Jr	6'10"	11-0	10.4	2.6	1.6	0.1	1.0	42.2%	20.0%	0.5	40.0%	22.2%
10	Alex Hawkins	SG	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Ray Glasgow	SG	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Iowa State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
27	Killyan Toure	G	Fr	6'3"	37-37	25.4	8.6	3.5	2.3	1.7	51.0%	31.3%	2.2	72.2%	22.1%
0	Nate Heise	G	Sr	6'5"	37-5	24.9	5.7	4.0	1.6	0.6	53.8%	32.2%	2.4	66.7%	13.4%
23	Blake Buchanan	F	Jr	6'10"	37-36	24.5	8.5	5.7	1.7	1.1	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	49.4%	19.0%
1	Jamarion Batemon	G	Fr	6'3"	37-0	15.6	6.6	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	37.0%	3.9	78.8%	24.8%
21	Dominykas Pleta	F	Fr	6'11"	35-1	11.3	4.4	2.3	0.5	0.8	70.6%	—	0.0	59.6%	20.6%
11	Dominick Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	24-0	8.3	3.7	0.9	0.3	0.7	44.4%	0.0%	0.3	60.4%	29.2%
4	Eric Mulder	F	Sr	6'9"	20-0	3.6	0.9	1.6	0.1	0.3	53.6%	100.0%	0.1	44.4%	17.6%
13	Cade Kelderman	G	Jr	6'1"	18-0	3.8	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.1	60.0%	40.0%	0.6	50.0%	12.1%
55	Xzavion Mitchell	F	Fr	6'6"	7-0	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.1	37.5%	33.3%	0.9	50.0%	23.4%
7	Anthony Rise	G	Fr	6'0"	11-0	1.4	0.2	0.5	0.0	0.1	25.0%	—	0.0	—	18.5%
2	Mason Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Alcorn St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Alcorn St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Nick Woodard	SF	Sr	6'6"	32-32	28.7	8.6	4.2	1.3	1.6	46.5%	30.8%	3.3	61.7%	21.1%
0	Shane Lancaster	G	Jr	6'4"	32-26	28.6	10.8	2.3	2.2	1.2	53.6%	43.0%	4.4	72.5%	21.8%
1	Jameel Morris	PG	Jr	6'1"	30-25	29.5	11.2	2.5	2.9	2.2	48.5%	29.0%	2.3	78.9%	24.9%
8	Tycen McDaniels	F	Jr	6'8"	32-32	27.3	12.0	6.1	1.0	2.6	52.8%	25.0%	0.3	75.4%	27.5%
3	Davian Williams	PG	So	5'10"	32-16	26.4	7.8	2.9	1.3	1.6	44.2%	32.5%	3.8	68.0%	21.7%
12	Omari Hamilton	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	21.4	7.8	4.5	0.5	1.2	48.5%	35.4%	1.5	69.6%	23.4%
30	Travis Roberts	SG	Sr	6'6"	31-10	16.5	3.6	1.7	0.4	0.5	41.5%	29.1%	2.5	50.0%	16.6%
4	Bryson Calamese	PG	Jr	6'2"	31-1	11.1	3.0	0.9	1.2	1.1	38.7%	28.6%	0.9	73.3%	23.5%
22	Mike Jones	SG	Fr	6'7"	13-5	15.0	3.5	3.4	1.1	1.2	40.2%	11.1%	0.7	47.1%	19.5%
2	Jeremy Ellis	PF	Jr	6'6"	22-0	6.3	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	42.9%	—	0.0	83.3%	11.8%
6	William Henderson	F	Jr	6'10"	11-0	10.4	2.6	1.6	0.1	1.0	42.2%	20.0%	0.5	40.0%	22.2%
10	Alex Hawkins	SG	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Ray Glasgow	SG	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Alcorn St

Against the spread

Season

16-14-2

Home

5-4

Road

9-9-2

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-16-2

Home

2-7

Road

11-8-1

Last 10

2-6-2

avg vs total −4.2

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	N	L 56–65	+6.0	L−3.0	142.5	U121	84.2	97.7	66.5
Mar 9	Alabama StAdjEM #324	N	W 77–65	+7.5	W+19.5	142.0	P142	109.4	92.4	70.4
Mar 5	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	H	L 48–83	+1.0	L−34.0	144.0	U131	64.5	111.6	74.4
Mar 3	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	H	W 67–64	−9.5	L−6.5	139.0	U131	103.7	99.1	64.6
Feb 28	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	A	L 51–72	+4.5	L−16.5	150.0	U123	72.5	102.3	70.4
Feb 26	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	L 87–92 OT	+6.5	W+1.5	145.0	O179	109.3	115.6	79.6
Feb 21	Jackson StAdjEM #353	H	W 83–65	−1.0	W+17.0	149.0	U148	115.8	90.7	71.7
Feb 16	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	H	L 78–86	+1.5	L−6.5	137.0	O164	109.0	120.1	71.6
Feb 14	BethuneAdjEM #260	H	W 57–55	+8.0	W+10.0	145.0	U112	89.3	86.2	63.8
Feb 9	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	A	W 74–66	−5.5	W+2.5	140.0	P140	126.0	112.4	58.7

Iowa State

Against the spread

Season

22-15

Home

9-8

Road

5-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-21

Home

9-8

Road

2-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +0.1

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 27	#6TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	L 62–76	−3.0	L−17.0	139.5	U138	91.2	111.8	68.0
Mar 22	#7KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	W 82–63	−4.5	W+14.5	146.5	U145	118.4	91.0	69.2
Mar 20	#15Tennessee StAdjEM #155	N	W 108–74	−25.0	W+9.0	147.5	O182	137.7	94.4	78.4
Mar 13	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	N	L 80–82	+3.5	W+1.5	144.5	O162	120.8	123.9	66.2
Mar 12	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	N	W 75–53	−5.5	W+16.5	143.5	U128	115.9	81.9	64.7
Mar 11	Arizona StAdjEM #93	N	W 91–42	−12.5	W+36.5	149.5	U133	132.3	61.1	68.8
Mar 7	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 86–65	−16.5	W+4.5	148.0	O151	117.9	89.1	73.0
Mar 2	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	L 57–73	+7.0	L−9.0	149.0	U130	85.4	109.3	66.8
Feb 28	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	H	L 73–82	−9.5	L−18.5	145.0	O155	113.1	127.1	64.5
Feb 24	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 75–59	−14.0	W+2.0	144.5	U134	110.2	86.7	68.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Alcorn StIowa State

Efficiency

99.6

118.3

114.4

97.6

68.6

68.2

—

Shooting

47.7%

56.2%

46.5%

55.4%

33.3%

38.3%

70.8%

67.5%

31.8%

34.5%

Ball control & glass

19.6%

14.9%

18.1%

22.6%

26.9%

35.2%

35.5%

28.6%

10.5%

9.6%

11.1%

10.2%

Style

33.7%

38.8%

45.4%

45.2%

14.8%

14.1%

46.6%

59.0%

30.7%

28.6%

Roster

3.14

2.34

6'4.1"

6'5.9"

—

55.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Alcorn St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Alcorn St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Iowa State

Returning minutes: 55.7%Returning production: 46.0%

Lost

Milan Momcilovic 30.4 mpg, 16.9 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
Joshua Jefferson 29.3 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tamin Lipsey 29.0 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Mason Williams no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 56% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Dec 3	2025-26	Alcorn St 68 – 132 Iowa State

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.