CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceQubein Center, High Point, NC
George Mason
Efficiency #83
2025-26: 23-10 · 11-8 conf
@
High Point
Efficiency #50
2025-26: 31-5 · 18-1 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
71.2
win 28%
Projected
78.1
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: HPU −6.9 · total 149.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: High Point 70.1, George Mason 65.9 → 67.6 possessions
−1.5
High Point offense vs George Mason defense
+2.8
George Mason offense vs High Point defense
−0.2
Projected total
149.3
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
High Point offense vs George Mason defense
+2.8
George Mason offense vs High Point defense
+0.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
High Point by 6.9
6.9
George Mason side ◂▸ High Point side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help High Point.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, High Point is the faster team (71.2, #45 of 365) and George Mason the slower (64.7, #334). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.3
model
Projected team totals
71.2 / 78.1
George Mason / High Point
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.9#345
George Mason
70.1#43
High Point

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageHigh Point
Where High Point scores: ball control
High Point turns it over on 12.8% of possessions (#5); George Mason forces turnovers on 15.4% of opponent possessions (#256). Expect about 13.7%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
High Point averages 71.2 possessions per 40, George Mason 64.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseHigh Point
High Point's ball-hawking
High Point ranks #2 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.5% of George Mason's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
AdvantageGeorge Mason
Where George Mason struggles: ball control
George Mason turns it over on 15.8% of possessions (#122); High Point forces turnovers on 21.3% of opponent possessions (#8). Expect about 19.1%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashHigh Point
Strength vs strength: free-throw rate
High Point (#50 in free-throw rate) against George Mason (#43 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.1%. Historically George Mason's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).
George Mason has the ball
OffenseHigh Point allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #113
50.5% #126
+0.6 pt/100
15.8% #122
21.3% #8
-2.8 pt/100
31.3% #149
31.1% #207
+0.6 pt/100
41.1% #44
35.5% #199
+0.4 pt/100
72.5% #188
—
+0.0 pt/100
George Mason net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.2 pts/100
High Point has the ball
OffenseGeorge Mason allowsvs D1 avg
54.5% #51
49.5% #83
+1.4 pt/100
12.8% #5
15.4% #256
+3.8 pt/100
31.8% #131
28.3% #79
-0.0 pt/100
40.8% #50
28.9% #43
-0.1 pt/100
74.3% #112
—
+0.2 pt/100
High Point net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
George Masonoffense vsHigh Pointdefense
Share of shots by zone
George Mason shoots
High Point allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.8%#4057.7%#13858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.5%#3440.5%#19839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.0%#31335.3%#8338.0%
Three33.3%#21432.6%#9733.7%
High Pointoffense vsGeorge Masondefense
Share of shots by zone
High Point shoots
George Mason allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.0%#5060.1%#23458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.8%#30838.8%#15739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.6%#32030.9%#838.0%
Three34.2%#16132.6%#9133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
George Mason
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#36 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#149
Def reb %
71.7%
#79
Turnover %
15.8%
#122
Forced TO %
15.4%
#256
FT rate
41.1%
#44
FT allowed
28.9%
#43
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed+1.6
High Point
+7.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#4 of 365
Off reb %
31.8%
#131
Def reb %
68.9%
#207
Turnover %
12.8%
#5
Forced TO %
21.3%
#8
FT rate
40.8%
#50
FT allowed
35.5%
#199
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+2.7
Forcing turnovers+3.1
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.1

High Point has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.5 (#4 of 365) to George Mason’s +4.1 (#36).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

George Mason2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Kory MincyGJr6'2"33-3234.014.33.62.91.753.5%38.9%5.388.7%25.5%
2Jahari LongGSr6'5"33-3333.812.23.34.01.853.8%37.7%3.982.6%22.1%
35Riley AllenspachFJr6'11"32-3124.913.66.10.81.360.2%31.3%2.168.0%30.2%
0Masai TroutmanGSr6'5"31-2225.18.43.41.21.349.2%33.3%3.181.1%21.9%
5Fatt HillGSr6'5"23-424.110.33.71.91.951.6%28.0%1.173.7%27.9%
13Malik PresleyGJr6'6"33-2216.13.21.50.80.853.5%31.8%0.744.4%14.4%
10Emmanuel KangaFFr6'8"32-013.34.65.30.50.558.1%—0.059.5%20.3%
23Nick EllingtonFSr6'8"31-512.94.73.10.30.657.1%100.0%0.064.7%21.9%
9Stas SivkaFSo6'10"29-211.02.31.40.40.447.4%28.2%1.373.3%14.7%
4Dola AdebayoFSr6'8"27-1311.63.42.30.40.646.2%26.1%0.980.8%20.7%
11Devin BookerGFr6'4"25-08.31.80.70.20.335.6%22.6%1.253.3%19.8%
1Brayden O'ConnorGSr6'5"1-115.04.03.01.03.025.0%0.0%3.0—44.0%
14T.J. ProsiseGSo6'3"6-01.80.30.20.20.233.3%0.0%0.2—22.2%
12Ben WoodwardGJr6'4"5-01.60.00.20.00.00.0%0.0%0.4—22.5%
7Isaiah SkinnGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
31Ryan-Preston MendyFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
George MasonHigh Point
Efficiency
110.8
115.4
105.7
105.8
65.9
70.1
—
—
Shooting
52.7%
54.5%
54.3%
57.0%
33.3%
34.2%
72.5%
74.3%
41.1%
40.8%
Ball control & glass
15.8%
12.8%
15.4%
21.3%
31.3%
31.8%
28.3%
31.1%
9.6%
6.8%
9.8%
10.7%
Style
35.2%
43.6%
46.4%
43.6%
12.1%
18.9%
49.9%
52.8%
33.9%
38.5%
Roster
3.24
3.47
6'6"
6'4.2"
—
86.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
George Mason
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

High Point
Returning minutes: 86.6%Returning production: 82.8%
Lost
  • Terry Anderson 26.9 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kasen Krueger no D1 minutes last season
  • Mavrick Miller no D1 minutes last season
  • Dorian Grosber no D1 minutes last season
  • Liam Carney no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.