CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help High Point.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, High Point is the faster team (71.2, #45 of 365) and George Mason the slower (64.7, #334). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.8%#40 | 57.7%#138 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.5%#34 | 40.5%#198 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.0%#313 | 35.3%#83 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.3%#214 | 32.6%#97 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.0%#50 | 60.1%#234 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.8%#308 | 38.8%#157 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.6%#320 | 30.9%#8 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#161 | 32.6%#91 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersHigh Point has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.5 (#4 of 365) to George Mason’s +4.1 (#36).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kory Mincy | G | Jr | 6'2" | 33-32 | 34.0 | 14.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 53.5% | 38.9% | 5.3 | 88.7% | 25.5% | |
| 2 | Jahari Long | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 33.8 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 53.8% | 37.7% | 3.9 | 82.6% | 22.1% | |
| 35 | Riley Allenspach | F | Jr | 6'11" | 32-31 | 24.9 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 60.2% | 31.3% | 2.1 | 68.0% | 30.2% | |
| 0 | Masai Troutman | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-22 | 25.1 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 49.2% | 33.3% | 3.1 | 81.1% | 21.9% | |
| 5 | Fatt Hill | G | Sr | 6'5" | 23-4 | 24.1 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 51.6% | 28.0% | 1.1 | 73.7% | 27.9% | |
| 13 | Malik Presley | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-22 | 16.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 53.5% | 31.8% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 14.4% | |
| 10 | Emmanuel Kanga | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-0 | 13.3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 58.1% | — | 0.0 | 59.5% | 20.3% | |
| 23 | Nick Ellington | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-5 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 57.1% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 64.7% | 21.9% | |
| 9 | Stas Sivka | F | So | 6'10" | 29-2 | 11.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 47.4% | 28.2% | 1.3 | 73.3% | 14.7% | |
| 4 | Dola Adebayo | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-13 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 46.2% | 26.1% | 0.9 | 80.8% | 20.7% | |
| 11 | Devin Booker | G | Fr | 6'4" | 25-0 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 35.6% | 22.6% | 1.2 | 53.3% | 19.8% | |
| 1 | Brayden O'Connor | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 44.0% | |
| 14 | T.J. Prosise | G | So | 6'3" | 6-0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 22.2% | |
| 12 | Ben Woodward | G | Jr | 6'4" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | — | 22.5% | |
| 7 | Isaiah Skinn | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Ryan-Preston Mendy | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rob Martin | G | Sr | 5'10" | 35-35 | 27.3 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 48.2% | 30.2% | 4.5 | 83.9% | 32.6% | |
| 8 | Owen Aquino | F | Sr | 6'8" | 36-36 | 26.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 57.9% | 44.4% | 1.0 | 65.3% | 19.8% | |
| 9 | Conrad Martinez | G | Jr | 6'0" | 36-1 | 21.8 | 8.8 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 54.0% | 32.8% | 3.3 | 84.4% | 21.8% | |
| 15 | Braden Hausen | F | So | 6'7" | 36-25 | 20.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 54.2% | 35.8% | 4.4 | 79.2% | 17.7% | |
| 12 | Scotty Washington | G | Sr | 6'4" | 36-29 | 18.8 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 57.3% | 37.9% | 2.9 | 77.3% | 21.0% | |
| 11 | Cam'Ron Fletcher | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-11 | 22.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 61.1% | 36.2% | 3.5 | 71.6% | 28.8% | |
| 99 | Chase Johnston | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-11 | 13.8 | 6.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 71.2% | 48.6% | 4.4 | 100.0% | 19.3% | |
| 2 | Vincent Brady II | G | Sr | 6'3" | 25-0 | 16.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 44.7% | 24.2% | 2.6 | 80.6% | 19.7% | |
| 24 | Youssouf Singare | F | Jr | 6'10" | 32-0 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 68.2% | — | 0.0 | 55.0% | 9.9% | |
| 7 | Caden Miller | F | Fr | 6'9" | 25-0 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 74.4% | — | 0.0 | 28.6% | 18.6% | |
| 4 | Babacar Diallo | G | Sr | 6'6" | 16-0 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 72.7% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 43.8% | 15.2% | |
| 19 | Josh Ibukunoluwa | F | So | 6'10" | 16-0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 63.0% | — | 0.0 | 68.8% | 18.1% | |
| 35 | David Fonville | G | So | 6'3" | 11-0 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 16.6% | |
| 14 | Birgir Irving | F | So | 6'7" | 10-0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 42.9% | 36.4% | |
| 10 | Dorian Grosber | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Kasen Krueger | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 16 | Liam Carney | G | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Mavrick Miller | G | So | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kory Mincy | G | Jr | 6'2" | 33-32 | 34.0 | 14.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 53.5% | 38.9% | 5.3 | 88.7% | 25.5% | |
| 2 | Jahari Long | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 33.8 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 53.8% | 37.7% | 3.9 | 82.6% | 22.1% | |
| 35 | Riley Allenspach | F | Jr | 6'11" | 32-31 | 24.9 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 60.2% | 31.3% | 2.1 | 68.0% | 30.2% | |
| 0 | Masai Troutman | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-22 | 25.1 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 49.2% | 33.3% | 3.1 | 81.1% | 21.9% | |
| 5 | Fatt Hill | G | Sr | 6'5" | 23-4 | 24.1 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 51.6% | 28.0% | 1.1 | 73.7% | 27.9% | |
| 13 | Malik Presley | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-22 | 16.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 53.5% | 31.8% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 14.4% | |
| 10 | Emmanuel Kanga | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-0 | 13.3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 58.1% | — | 0.0 | 59.5% | 20.3% | |
| 23 | Nick Ellington | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-5 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 57.1% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 64.7% | 21.9% | |
| 9 | Stas Sivka | F | So | 6'10" | 29-2 | 11.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 47.4% | 28.2% | 1.3 | 73.3% | 14.7% | |
| 4 | Dola Adebayo | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-13 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 46.2% | 26.1% | 0.9 | 80.8% | 20.7% | |
| 11 | Devin Booker | G | Fr | 6'4" | 25-0 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 35.6% | 22.6% | 1.2 | 53.3% | 19.8% | |
| 1 | Brayden O'Connor | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 44.0% | |
| 14 | T.J. Prosise | G | So | 6'3" | 6-0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 22.2% | |
| 12 | Ben Woodward | G | Jr | 6'4" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | — | 22.5% | |
| 7 | Isaiah Skinn | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Ryan-Preston Mendy | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | Liberty | H | L 71–77 | −3.0 | L−9.0 | 141.5 | O148 | 112.8 | 122.3 | 63.0 |
| Mar 12 | St Bonaventure | N | L 57–63 | −2.5 | L−8.5 | 142.5 | U120 | 93.7 | 103.5 | 60.9 |
| Mar 7 | #25Saint Louis | H | W 86–57 | +7.0 | W+36.0 | 147.0 | U143 | 136.6 | 90.6 | 62.9 |
| Mar 3 | VCU | A | L 65–70 | +10.0 | W+5.0 | 147.5 | U135 | 106.9 | 115.1 | 60.8 |
| Feb 28 | St Bonaventure | H | W 71–58 | −3.5 | W+9.5 | 147.0 | U129 | 119.8 | 97.9 | 59.3 |
| Feb 25 | Saint Joseph's | A | L 63–81 | −1.0 | L−19.0 | 136.5 | O144 | 97.7 | 125.7 | 64.5 |
| Feb 18 | Dayton | H | L 67–82 | −2.0 | L−17.0 | 137.0 | O149 | 106.8 | 130.8 | 62.7 |
| Feb 13 | G Washington | A | L 53–72 | +3.5 | L−15.5 | 150.0 | U125 | 90.2 | 122.6 | 58.8 |
| Feb 10 | Richmond | A | L 70–82 | −3.0 | L−15.0 | 140.0 | O152 | 99.8 | 116.9 | 70.1 |
| Feb 7 | Saint Joseph's | H | W 60–52 | −7.0 | W+1.0 | 139.5 | U112 | 99.5 | 86.2 | 60.3 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21 | #4Arkansas | N | L 88–94 | +12.0 | W+6.0 | 170.5 | O182 | 113.8 | 121.5 | 77.4 |
| Mar 19 | #5Wisconsin | N | W 83–82 | +10.0 | W+11.0 | 161.5 | O165 | 113.7 | 112.3 | 73.0 |
| Mar 8 | Winthrop | N | W 91–76 | −7.0 | W+8.0 | 157.5 | O167 | 116.0 | 96.9 | 78.5 |
| Mar 7 | UNC Asheville | N | W 75–71 | −13.0 | L−9.0 | 147.5 | U146 | 110.5 | 104.6 | 67.9 |
| Mar 6 | Gardner-Webb | N | W 81–59 | −27.5 | L−5.5 | 156.5 | U140 | 115.3 | 84.0 | 70.3 |
| Feb 26 | Presbyterian | A | W 79–73 | −11.5 | L−5.5 | 151.5 | O152 | 115.6 | 106.8 | 68.3 |
| Feb 21 | Winthrop | H | W 89–87 | −9.5 | L−7.5 | 166.5 | O176 | 120.5 | 117.8 | 73.9 |
| Feb 19 | UNC Asheville | H | W 74–48 | −15.0 | W+11.0 | 152.0 | U122 | 115.0 | 74.6 | 64.4 |
| Feb 14 | Gardner-Webb | A | W 112–87 | −25.5 | L−0.5 | 162.0 | O199 | 143.5 | 111.4 | 78.1 |
| Feb 12 | SC Upstate | A | W 95–70 | −14.0 | W+11.0 | 154.5 | O165 | 126.6 | 93.3 | 75.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputReturns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
- Terry Anderson 26.9 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kasen Krueger no D1 minutes last season
- Mavrick Miller no D1 minutes last season
- Dorian Grosber no D1 minutes last season
- Liam Carney no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.