CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBartow Arena, Birmingham, AL
Samford
Efficiency #202
2025-26: 18-14 · 11-8 conf
@
UAB
Efficiency #111
2025-26: 20-12 · 11-8 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
72.4
win 28%
Projected
79.2
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: UAB −6.9 · total 151.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UAB 69.6, Samford 68.3 → 69.6 possessions
+2.8
UAB offense vs Samford defense
+1.7
Samford offense vs UAB defense
−1.2
Projected total
151.6
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UAB offense vs Samford defense
+1.7
Samford offense vs UAB defense
+1.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
UAB by 6.9
6.9
Samford side ◂▸ UAB side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.5 against a projected 151.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UAB.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UAB is the faster team (70.4, #78 of 365) and Samford the slower (68.4, #176). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.6
model
Projected team totals
72.4 / 79.2
Samford / UAB
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.3#182
Samford
69.6#77
UAB

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUAB
Where UAB scores: ball control
UAB turns it over on 12.5% of possessions (#2); Samford forces turnovers on 13.0% of opponent possessions (#354). Expect about 12.0%, 4.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSamford
Where Samford struggles: the offensive glass
Samford rebounds 25.3% of its own misses (#333); UAB lets opponents grab 27.7% of their own misses (#53). Expect about 25.5%, 4.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversSamford
Samford protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.4% is worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions for Samford's offense.
ClashUAB
Style match: 3-point volume
UAB rarely shoots threes (30.5% of its shots); Samford runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.0% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (UAB, Samford's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Samford at about 44.3% of its shots from three, UAB about 30.0%.
ClashSamford
Strength vs strength: free-throw rate
Samford (#32 in free-throw rate) against UAB (#38 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.6%. Historically UAB's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).
Samford has the ball
OffenseUAB allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #101
50.0% #98
+0.6 pt/100
13.4% #11
16.1% #215
+2.9 pt/100
25.3% #333
27.7% #53
-3.0 pt/100
41.9% #32
28.7% #38
-0.1 pt/100
69.2% #293
—
-0.3 pt/100
Samford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.1 pts/100
UAB has the ball
OffenseSamford allowsvs D1 avg
48.4% #305
51.9% #206
-2.0 pt/100
12.5% #2
13.0% #354
+5.9 pt/100
32.5% #104
25.7% #17
-0.5 pt/100
36.4% #141
32.9% #128
-0.1 pt/100
70.6% #251
—
-0.2 pt/100
UAB net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Samfordoffense vsUABdefense
Share of shots by zone
Samford shoots
UAB allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.5%#6358.6%#17158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)27.5%#35937.9%#13339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.4%#13635.5%#9238.0%
Three35.6%#8432.6%#9533.7%
UABoffense vsSamforddefense
Share of shots by zone
UAB shoots
Samford allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.8%#10157.1%#11458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.3%#34737.5%#12439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.2%#28242.7%#32538.0%
Three27.8%#36436.5%#32633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Samford
+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#94 of 365
Off reb %
25.3%
#333
Def reb %
74.3%
#17
Turnover %
13.4%
#11
Forced TO %
13.0%
#354
FT rate
41.9%
#32
FT allowed
32.9%
#128
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.6
Defensive rebounding+1.6
Ball security+2.3
Forcing turnovers−2.5
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed+0.6
UAB
+6.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#11 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#104
Def reb %
72.3%
#53
Turnover %
12.5%
#2
Forced TO %
16.1%
#215
FT rate
36.4%
#141
FT allowed
28.7%
#38
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+2.9
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.4
Foul shots allowed+1.7

UAB has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.2 (#11 of 365) to Samford’s +2.1 (#94).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Samford2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Jadin BoothGSr6'2"30-3036.521.63.72.21.660.3%43.6%9.786.9%29.2%
5Cade NorrisGSo6'4"32-3130.78.94.62.10.856.2%40.4%3.476.3%15.7%
3Keaton NorrisGSr6'0"28-2832.910.04.34.91.447.4%31.1%4.783.6%20.0%
0Isaiah Campbell-FinchGFr6'0"29-1923.47.41.51.30.749.5%32.1%2.951.6%20.0%
10Kam MartinGSo6'4"32-816.65.72.10.90.550.0%32.6%2.885.1%19.6%
8Zion WilburnGSo6'5"30-517.04.62.20.91.045.5%29.6%1.860.7%19.6%
22Jaxon PollardFSr6'7"25-813.03.23.70.60.337.4%19.6%2.060.0%19.4%
35Will ShaverCSo6'10"30-09.62.72.60.81.150.8%33.3%0.459.3%22.0%
4Judson BjornstadFSo6'8"24-18.82.31.40.30.341.3%28.6%0.972.7%17.1%
23Caleb HarrisonFFr6'9"12-06.11.71.50.80.360.0%0.0%0.150.0%15.1%
33Zach LameyGSo6'3"5-08.24.61.00.00.668.8%46.2%2.650.0%26.5%
21Corey BrownGSo6'4"5-06.40.80.60.80.225.0%0.0%0.6100.0%10.1%
11Cooper DavenportGFr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1DaJion HumphreyGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7JD GossettGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
31Joshua HughesFSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
SamfordUAB
Efficiency
109.1
109.0
110.4
106.2
68.3
69.6
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
48.4%
52.8%
51.3%
35.6%
27.8%
69.2%
70.6%
41.9%
36.4%
Ball control & glass
13.4%
12.5%
13.0%
16.1%
25.3%
32.5%
25.7%
27.7%
7.6%
8.1%
10.2%
9.7%
Style
45.7%
30.5%
37.7%
50.7%
10.8%
19.6%
55.2%
50.3%
28.1%
29.9%
Roster
2.69
2.89
6'3.3"
6'4.7"
87.9%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Samford
Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 77.5%
Lost
  • Dylan Faulkner 24.5 mpg, 16.1 ppg · transferred to Clemson
Added
  • JD Gossett no D1 minutes last season
  • Cooper Davenport no D1 minutes last season
  • DaJion Humphrey no D1 minutes last season
  • Joshua Hughes no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UAB
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UAB's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.