CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMontagne Center, Beaumont, TX

UL Monroe

Efficiency #351

2025-26: 4-28 · 1-18 conf

Lamar

Efficiency #236

2025-26: 12-19 · 7-15 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · TBD

68.8

win 16%

Projected

80.3

win 84%

No line posted yet.

Model: LAM −11.5 · total 149.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Lamar 67.0, UL Monroe 70.2 → 68.9 possessions

+1.2

Lamar offense vs UL Monroe defense

+3.6

UL Monroe offense vs Lamar defense

−3.9

Projected total

149.1

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Lamar offense vs UL Monroe defense

+3.6

UL Monroe offense vs Lamar defense

+3.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Lamar by 11.5

11.5

UL Monroe side ◂▸ Lamar side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Lamar.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UL Monroe is the faster team (70.7, #65 of 365) and Lamar the slower (65.8, #301). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.1

model

Projected team totals

68.8 / 80.3

UL Monroe / Lamar

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.2#37

UL Monroe

67.0#287

Lamar

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLamar

Where Lamar scores: the offensive glass

Lamar rebounds 35.7% of its own misses (#31); UL Monroe lets opponents grab 35.4% of their own misses (#345). Expect about 36.5%, 6.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageUL Monroe

Where UL Monroe struggles: shooting

UL Monroe shoots an effective 47.8% (#316); Lamar allows 50.9% (#153). Expect about 49.1%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseLamar

Lamar's shot-blocking

Lamar ranks #31 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.6% of UL Monroe's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

GlassUL Monroe

UL Monroe gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.2% is worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions against UL Monroe's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (UL Monroe's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UL Monroe at about 40.2% of its shots from three, Lamar about 36.8%.

UL Monroe has the ball

OffenseLamar allowsvs D1 avg

47.8% #316

50.9% #153

-3.1 pt/100

16.9% #199

17.3% #130

-0.5 pt/100

25.1% #338

29.4% #130

-2.5 pt/100

38.8% #85

44.4% #347

+0.9 pt/100

72.7% #178

—

+0.0 pt/100

UL Monroe net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.2 pts/100

Lamar has the ball

OffenseUL Monroe allowsvs D1 avg

47.8% #318

57.1% #358

+1.4 pt/100

18.1% #273

15.7% #236

-0.1 pt/100

35.7% #31

35.4% #345

+3.7 pt/100

27.9% #344

27.7% #32

-1.0 pt/100

70.7% #249

—

-0.2 pt/100

Lamar net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UL Monroeoffense vsLamardefense

Share of shots by zone

UL Monroe shoots

39.9

6.0

13.6

40.5

Lamar allows

39.6

5.0

17.7

37.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.5%#313	59.0%#189	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.3%#312	32.9%#27	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#287	33.6%#40	38.0%
Three	32.2%#270	35.3%#266	33.7%

Lamaroffense vsUL Monroedefense

Share of shots by zone

Lamar shoots

33.4

7.3

26.1

33.1

UL Monroe allows

39.5

5.4

13.1

42.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.3%#337	65.0%#351	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.1%#77	35.6%#74	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.0%#188	46.1%#356	38.0%
Three	32.9%#238	36.9%#343	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UL Monroe

−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#237 of 365

Off reb %

25.1%

#338

Def reb %

64.6%

#345

Turnover %

16.9%

#199

Forced TO %

15.7%

#236

FT rate

38.8%

#85

FT allowed

27.7%

#32

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn+1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.9

Lamar

−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#284 of 365

Off reb %

35.7%

#31

Def reb %

70.6%

#130

Turnover %

18.1%

#273

Forced TO %

17.3%

#130

FT rate

27.9%

#344

FT allowed

44.4%

#347

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers+0.4

Foul shots drawn−1.8

Foul shots allowed−2.4

UL Monroe has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.1 (#237 of 365) to Lamar’s −2.5 (#284).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UL Monroe2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UL Monroe's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Krystian Lewis	G	So	6'3"	32-32	36.2	18.4	4.5	3.2	2.8	42.9%	31.5%	6.2	84.1%	32.1%
21	MJ Russell	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	35.7	15.3	3.9	1.9	2.0	47.2%	31.3%	5.2	69.9%	27.3%
4	Lavell Brodnex	G	Sr	6'5"	26-24	31.6	14.7	8.5	2.2	1.7	56.9%	33.3%	2.3	71.5%	24.6%
5	Renars Sondors	F	So	6'9"	28-25	28.5	10.7	4.2	1.0	1.4	53.7%	34.4%	4.6	68.3%	21.4%
8	Alex Molofeev	G	Fr	6'5"	30-21	21.9	5.0	2.6	1.7	1.5	47.7%	26.4%	1.8	60.0%	16.8%
0	Dylan Diaz	G	Jr	6'2"	23-15	22.6	6.2	2.0	1.2	1.0	51.7%	37.6%	3.7	75.0%	16.5%
2	Micah Caster	G	So	6'2"	27-3	13.4	3.1	1.0	0.8	0.7	34.4%	32.4%	1.3	75.6%	18.1%
11	Wiggy Ball	G	Fr	6'3"	32-0	9.9	0.5	1.0	0.8	0.5	33.3%	28.6%	0.2	70.0%	5.9%
23	Ayomide Bamisile	F	So	6'7"	22-6	13.8	2.8	3.0	0.2	0.4	50.9%	0.0%	0.0	50.0%	12.9%
1	Przemek Hartman	F	Fr	6'9"	25-2	9.3	2.5	1.2	0.2	0.6	46.7%	19.0%	0.8	38.9%	20.1%
12	Alex Huguet Carrasco	G	Fr	6'7"	16-0	7.0	1.8	1.9	0.2	0.2	46.4%	26.7%	0.9	33.3%	16.7%
6	Ajay Tew	G	Jr	6'11"	13-0	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	31.8%	20.0%	0.4	80.0%	38.7%
32	Cam Campbell	G	So	6'3"	8-0	1.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
13	Brady Craig	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Brentay Noel	F	Jr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Lamar2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Rob Lee Jr.	G	Jr	6'2"	31-30	28.2	16.0	3.2	2.0	1.5	53.6%	40.0%	6.0	81.1%	33.5%
0	Cody Pennebaker	G	Sr	6'5"	31-31	27.5	7.1	4.3	2.5	1.3	50.7%	26.5%	1.1	51.9%	18.2%
4	Braden East	F	So	6'9"	30-28	23.9	12.8	9.1	0.7	1.7	54.2%	31.3%	0.5	70.6%	32.7%
10	Errol White	F	Sr	6'7"	31-15	22.3	5.0	4.9	1.2	1.4	47.4%	—	0.0	56.9%	17.4%
3	King-Njhsanni Wilhite	G	Jr	6'1"	29-16	21.0	5.8	1.1	2.5	1.0	43.0%	34.5%	1.9	65.9%	21.2%
11	Eian Lowe	G	Fr	5'10"	30-2	17.9	4.3	1.5	2.5	1.2	43.5%	34.9%	1.4	63.6%	19.3%
32	Janko Bulajic	C	Sr	6'10"	31-2	11.8	1.5	3.1	0.9	0.7	60.0%	—	0.0	43.5%	10.4%
5	Jayden Gambrell	G	Fr	6'3"	30-1	11.2	4.0	0.8	0.4	0.6	45.3%	32.3%	3.1	71.4%	26.5%
8	B.B. Knight	G	Jr	6'6"	20-0	8.1	2.7	0.6	0.4	0.6	28.7%	13.9%	1.8	95.0%	30.7%
20	Spencer Ezewiro	F	Jr	6'9"	20-0	5.7	0.5	1.7	0.3	0.2	30.8%	—	0.0	10.0%	11.4%
2	Jayden Barrs	G	So	6'1"	7-0	11.7	3.1	1.3	1.1	0.7	42.3%	28.6%	1.0	—	21.5%
12	Christian Thomas	PF	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
51	Izuchukwu Emelife	C	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Quinton Sanders	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UL Monroe2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UL Monroe's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Krystian Lewis	G	So	6'3"	32-32	36.2	18.4	4.5	3.2	2.8	42.9%	31.5%	6.2	84.1%	32.1%
21	MJ Russell	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	35.7	15.3	3.9	1.9	2.0	47.2%	31.3%	5.2	69.9%	27.3%
4	Lavell Brodnex	G	Sr	6'5"	26-24	31.6	14.7	8.5	2.2	1.7	56.9%	33.3%	2.3	71.5%	24.6%
5	Renars Sondors	F	So	6'9"	28-25	28.5	10.7	4.2	1.0	1.4	53.7%	34.4%	4.6	68.3%	21.4%
8	Alex Molofeev	G	Fr	6'5"	30-21	21.9	5.0	2.6	1.7	1.5	47.7%	26.4%	1.8	60.0%	16.8%
0	Dylan Diaz	G	Jr	6'2"	23-15	22.6	6.2	2.0	1.2	1.0	51.7%	37.6%	3.7	75.0%	16.5%
2	Micah Caster	G	So	6'2"	27-3	13.4	3.1	1.0	0.8	0.7	34.4%	32.4%	1.3	75.6%	18.1%
11	Wiggy Ball	G	Fr	6'3"	32-0	9.9	0.5	1.0	0.8	0.5	33.3%	28.6%	0.2	70.0%	5.9%
23	Ayomide Bamisile	F	So	6'7"	22-6	13.8	2.8	3.0	0.2	0.4	50.9%	0.0%	0.0	50.0%	12.9%
1	Przemek Hartman	F	Fr	6'9"	25-2	9.3	2.5	1.2	0.2	0.6	46.7%	19.0%	0.8	38.9%	20.1%
12	Alex Huguet Carrasco	G	Fr	6'7"	16-0	7.0	1.8	1.9	0.2	0.2	46.4%	26.7%	0.9	33.3%	16.7%
6	Ajay Tew	G	Jr	6'11"	13-0	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	31.8%	20.0%	0.4	80.0%	38.7%
32	Cam Campbell	G	So	6'3"	8-0	1.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
13	Brady Craig	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Brentay Noel	F	Jr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UL Monroe

Against the spread

Season

17-12

Home

6-5

Road

9-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 7 of 10 as an underdogCovered 6 of 8 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

20-9

Home

7-4

Road

11-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +8.4

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 5 of 8 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 3	Old DominionAdjEM #242	N	L 80–87	+10.5	W+3.5	157.5	O167	114.6	124.6	69.8
Feb 27	TroyAdjEM #136	A	L 65–80	+18.0	W+3.0	153.5	U145	104.3	128.4	62.3
Feb 25	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	A	L 54–89	+14.5	L−20.5	153.5	U143	80.3	132.3	67.3
Feb 21	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	H	L 94–102	+15.5	W+7.5	164.0	O196	120.9	131.2	77.8
Feb 18	TroyAdjEM #136	H	L 76–77	+17.0	W+16.0	155.5	U153	107.6	109.0	70.6
Feb 14	Texas StAdjEM #249	A	L 84–95	+14.0	W+3.0	149.0	O179	131.0	148.1	64.1
Feb 11	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	A	L 70–103	+21.0	L−12.0	163.0	O173	94.6	139.2	74.0
Feb 7	Ball StateAdjEM #295	H	L 68–73	+4.5	L−0.5	143.5	U141	98.1	105.3	69.3
Feb 4	Old DominionAdjEM #242	A	W 85–79	+14.5	W+20.5	154.0	O164	115.0	106.8	73.9
Feb 1	CoastalAdjEM #241	H	L 79–83	+9.0	W+5.0	145.0	O162	118.4	124.4	66.7

Lamar

Against the spread

Season

13-14-2

Home

5-7-1

Road

8-6-1

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −5.0

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-15

Home

6-7

Road

7-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −5.7

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 2	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	A	L 53–75	−2.5	L−24.5	134.0	U128	79.4	112.3	66.8
Feb 28	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	A	L 60–72	+1.0	L−11.0	138.0	U132	94.4	113.3	63.6
Feb 23	NichollsAdjEM #250	H	L 52–53	−3.5	L−4.5	143.5	U105	80.3	81.8	64.8
Feb 21	LSU N OrleansAdjEM #221	H	L 71–77	−5.5	L−11.5	146.5	O148	101.3	109.8	70.1
Feb 16	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	A	L 65–70	+6.0	W+1.0	142.0	U135	108.8	117.1	59.8
Feb 14	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	A	L 63–76	+2.5	L−10.5	136.0	O139	93.7	113.1	67.2
Feb 9	N'Western StAdjEM #299	H	L 68–70	−7.5	L−9.5	136.5	O138	103.1	106.1	66.0
Feb 7	SF AustinAdjEM #73	A	L 74–84	+8.0	L−2.0	139.5	O158	108.7	123.4	68.1
Feb 2	SE LouisianaAdjEM #296	H	W 73–54	−6.0	W+13.0	133.5	U127	120.3	89.0	60.7
Jan 31	McNeeseAdjEM #49	H	L 63–64	+10.5	W+9.5	144.0	U127	109.8	111.6	57.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UL MonroeLamar

Efficiency

103.0

105.0

117.2

108.3

70.2

67.0

—

Shooting

47.8%

47.4%

47.0%

32.2%

32.9%

72.7%

70.7%

38.8%

27.9%

Ball control & glass

16.9%

18.1%

15.7%

17.3%

25.1%

35.7%

35.4%

29.4%

10.2%

11.4%

11.7%

8.5%

Style

41.9%

33.9%

37.9%

40.5%

11.4%

14.2%

50.2%

55.4%

23.7%

34.7%

Roster

2.31

2.88

6'4.6"

6'4.4"

—

85.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UL Monroe

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted UL Monroe's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Lamar

Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 84.0%

Lost

Andrew Holifield 28.6 mpg, 11.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Christian Thomas no D1 minutes last season
Izuchukwu Emelife no D1 minutes last season
Quinton Sanders no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Nov 17	2025-26	Lamar 79 – 66 UL Monroe

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.