CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameJames T. Morris Arena, Indianapolis, IN

Robert Morris

Efficiency #142

2025-26: 22-11 · 14-8 conf

IU Indy

Efficiency #315

2025-26: 7-25 · 3-18 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · 6:30 PM ET

80.2

win 61%

Projected

77.0

win 39%

No line posted yet.

Model: RMU −3.2 · total 157.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: IU Indy 72.5, Robert Morris 66.4 → 70.6 possessions

+4.9

IU Indy offense vs Robert Morris defense

−1.6

Robert Morris offense vs IU Indy defense

+5.6

Projected total

157.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

IU Indy offense vs Robert Morris defense

−1.6

Robert Morris offense vs IU Indy defense

−5.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Robert Morris by 3.2

3.2

Robert Morris side ◂▸ IU Indy side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 157.1 against a projected 157.2, and the margin steps add to −3.1 against −3.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help IU Indy.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, IU Indy is the faster team (74.9, #4 of 365) and Robert Morris the slower (66.1, #289). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

157.2

model

Projected team totals

80.2 / 77.0

Robert Morris / IU Indy

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.4#323

Robert Morris

72.5#2

IU Indy

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageRobert Morris

Where Robert Morris scores: shooting

Robert Morris shoots an effective 54.9% (#39); IU Indy allows 58.2% (#362). Expect about 56.9%, 5.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +8.0 points per 100 possessions.

GlassRobert Morris

Robert Morris owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 37.9% is worth roughly +4.5 points per 100 possessions for Robert Morris's offense.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

IU Indy averages 74.9 possessions per 40, Robert Morris 66.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversRobert Morris

Robert Morris turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 19.3% is worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions against Robert Morris's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Robert Morris, IU Indy's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Robert Morris at about 38.1% of its shots from three, IU Indy about 39.4%.

Robert Morris has the ball

OffenseIU Indy allowsvs D1 avg

54.9% #39

58.2% #362

+8.0 pt/100

18.6% #302

19.2% #41

-3.1 pt/100

37.5% #11

35.6% #348

+4.5 pt/100

28.0% #343

46.6% #356

+0.4 pt/100

69.4% #289

—

-0.3 pt/100

Robert Morris net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.6 pts/100

IU Indy has the ball

OffenseRobert Morris allowsvs D1 avg

52.2% #136

50.0% #100

-0.1 pt/100

15.9% #127

15.9% #225

+1.3 pt/100

28.7% #243

28.8% #98

-1.2 pt/100

21.7% #365

40.1% #303

-0.4 pt/100

72.1% #204

—

-0.0 pt/100

IU Indy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Robert Morrisoffense vsIU Indydefense

Share of shots by zone

Robert Morris shoots

38.1

6.1

15.5

40.2

IU Indy allows

48.7

4.0

11.4

35.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.2%#86	64.3%#343	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.8%#271	41.8%#228	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.7%#85	38.4%#173	38.0%
Three	38.0%#18	38.5%#361	33.7%

IU Indyoffense vsRobert Morrisdefense

Share of shots by zone

IU Indy shoots

34.6

8.1

15.3

42.0

Robert Morris allows

42.6

6.6

15.3

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.5%#62	55.8%#80	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.3%#11	39.3%#163	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.0%#223	37.5%#141	38.0%
Three	32.4%#258	33.2%#135	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Robert Morris

−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#267 of 365

Off reb %

37.5%

#11

Def reb %

71.2%

#98

Turnover %

18.6%

#302

Forced TO %

15.9%

#225

FT rate

28.0%

#343

FT allowed

40.1%

#303

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.3

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn−1.8

Foul shots allowed−1.2

IU Indy

−6.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#358 of 365

Off reb %

28.7%

#243

Def reb %

64.4%

#348

Turnover %

15.9%

#127

Forced TO %

19.2%

#41

FT rate

21.7%

#365

FT allowed

46.6%

#356

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers+1.7

Foul shots drawn−3.4

Foul shots allowed−2.9

Robert Morris has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.9 (#267 of 365) to IU Indy’s −6.2 (#358).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Robert Morris2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Ryan Prather Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	33-33	34.0	15.7	3.9	3.6	0.8	54.3%	36.8%	6.9	84.7%	25.8%
16	Nikolaos Chitikoudis	F	Jr	6'9"	32-27	26.1	11.3	7.7	1.8	1.3	54.7%	0.0%	0.1	39.8%	27.8%
12	Darius Livingston	G	Fr	6'2"	27-7	25.8	9.6	2.0	3.0	2.6	52.5%	38.4%	5.9	64.3%	27.3%
20	Albert Vargas	G	Sr	5'10"	28-26	24.1	7.5	2.3	4.0	2.0	47.6%	38.9%	3.2	87.5%	22.3%
4	Kaleb Brown	G	Sr	6'7"	32-20	19.7	4.1	2.5	2.3	1.3	50.4%	30.0%	2.2	60.0%	16.2%
3	Ta'Zir Smith	G	Jr	6'3"	31-11	19.2	6.5	2.2	1.3	1.0	47.1%	30.6%	2.7	77.4%	23.3%
1	Josh Hill	F	So	6'11"	22-6	16.9	7.5	4.4	0.4	1.5	51.7%	29.0%	2.8	51.9%	30.7%
5	Cam Wilds	G	Jr	6'6"	24-3	13.1	4.0	1.6	0.6	0.7	57.4%	48.3%	1.2	75.0%	18.3%
13	Samuel Obenjo	F	Fr	6'10"	23-0	9.0	1.7	1.4	0.6	0.4	60.0%	—	0.0	43.5%	13.2%
6	Eddie Cooke III	F	Fr	6'5"	14-0	8.6	2.6	2.6	1.2	0.6	47.6%	0.0%	0.2	94.1%	19.2%
35	Ubong Okon	C	Sr	7'1"	17-0	6.2	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.6%
21	Jeremiah Littlejohn	G	Jr	6'5"	5-0	4.2	3.6	0.4	0.2	0.6	50.0%	40.0%	1.0	80.0%	54.0%
9	Cyril Arvanitis	G	Sr	6'3"	3-0	2.3	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	25.1%
8	Tanner O'Grady	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Vasilije Serafimoski	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

IU Indy2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Finley Woodward	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	30.8	8.8	5.3	6.3	2.2	51.5%	0.0%	0.0	68.6%	18.0%
12	Kyler D'Augustino	G	Jr	6'1"	30-30	32.3	18.5	3.2	3.4	1.9	58.0%	39.4%	3.5	79.3%	27.9%
13	Maguire Mitchell	G	Fr	6'5"	32-31	26.3	11.8	2.3	1.2	0.9	54.5%	34.9%	7.4	78.4%	22.9%
4	Micah Davis	G	So	6'2"	32-6	25.4	9.4	2.1	2.9	1.8	49.6%	31.3%	5.2	70.0%	22.9%
0	Jaxon Edwards	G	Sr	6'5"	30-14	23.0	11.6	5.6	1.9	1.8	55.1%	21.3%	1.6	73.6%	27.3%
20	Kameron Tinsley	F	So	6'6"	29-5	17.5	7.9	2.4	1.1	0.9	52.0%	34.6%	4.7	83.9%	23.1%
23	Aiden Miller	F	So	6'8"	29-9	14.7	5.0	3.8	1.0	0.8	49.2%	31.6%	3.4	64.5%	20.5%
15	Matt Compas	G	Sr	6'4"	31-5	13.5	7.1	1.2	1.4	0.9	51.9%	20.6%	1.1	68.4%	28.5%
1	Reece Hagy	F	Fr	6'8"	31-23	11.0	2.4	2.1	0.7	0.3	46.9%	21.2%	1.1	56.5%	12.8%
5	JP Dragas	G	So	6'1"	15-0	16.3	6.1	1.6	1.6	1.0	51.9%	34.8%	4.4	71.4%	20.2%
24	Gabe Stewart	F	Fr	6'9"	12-5	5.6	1.1	2.1	0.2	0.3	28.1%	25.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.1%
10	Lav Cvetkovic	F	Sr	6'7"	12-0	3.9	1.4	0.8	0.2	0.1	57.7%	37.5%	0.7	40.0%	17.6%
22	Ajay Holubar	G	Sr	6'3"	9-0	4.1	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.7	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	—	18.9%
2	Corey Boston	G	Sr	5'10"	6-0	3.5	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.7	44.4%	33.3%	1.0	75.0%	32.6%
11	Garrett Sever	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	3.7	1.0	0.3	0.7	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	1.0	—	11.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Robert Morris2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Ryan Prather Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	33-33	34.0	15.7	3.9	3.6	0.8	54.3%	36.8%	6.9	84.7%	25.8%
16	Nikolaos Chitikoudis	F	Jr	6'9"	32-27	26.1	11.3	7.7	1.8	1.3	54.7%	0.0%	0.1	39.8%	27.8%
12	Darius Livingston	G	Fr	6'2"	27-7	25.8	9.6	2.0	3.0	2.6	52.5%	38.4%	5.9	64.3%	27.3%
20	Albert Vargas	G	Sr	5'10"	28-26	24.1	7.5	2.3	4.0	2.0	47.6%	38.9%	3.2	87.5%	22.3%
4	Kaleb Brown	G	Sr	6'7"	32-20	19.7	4.1	2.5	2.3	1.3	50.4%	30.0%	2.2	60.0%	16.2%
3	Ta'Zir Smith	G	Jr	6'3"	31-11	19.2	6.5	2.2	1.3	1.0	47.1%	30.6%	2.7	77.4%	23.3%
1	Josh Hill	F	So	6'11"	22-6	16.9	7.5	4.4	0.4	1.5	51.7%	29.0%	2.8	51.9%	30.7%
5	Cam Wilds	G	Jr	6'6"	24-3	13.1	4.0	1.6	0.6	0.7	57.4%	48.3%	1.2	75.0%	18.3%
13	Samuel Obenjo	F	Fr	6'10"	23-0	9.0	1.7	1.4	0.6	0.4	60.0%	—	0.0	43.5%	13.2%
6	Eddie Cooke III	F	Fr	6'5"	14-0	8.6	2.6	2.6	1.2	0.6	47.6%	0.0%	0.2	94.1%	19.2%
35	Ubong Okon	C	Sr	7'1"	17-0	6.2	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.6%
21	Jeremiah Littlejohn	G	Jr	6'5"	5-0	4.2	3.6	0.4	0.2	0.6	50.0%	40.0%	1.0	80.0%	54.0%
9	Cyril Arvanitis	G	Sr	6'3"	3-0	2.3	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	25.1%
8	Tanner O'Grady	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Vasilije Serafimoski	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Robert Morris

Against the spread

Season

19-11-1

Home

10-4-1

Road

9-6

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +7.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14-1

Home

6-8-1

Road

10-5

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.9

Under 4 straightOver in 1 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	N	L 64–70	−4.0	L−10.0	146.5	U134	101.5	111.1	63.0
Mar 4	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	H	W 68–53	−4.0	W+11.0	143.5	U121	109.0	84.9	62.4
Feb 28	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 83–64	−12.5	W+6.5	157.5	U147	129.8	100.1	63.9
Feb 25	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	H	W 73–62	−8.0	W+3.0	150.5	U135	114.8	97.5	63.6
Feb 22	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	W 81–68	+4.0	W+17.0	146.5	O149	119.9	100.6	67.6
Feb 15	OaklandAdjEM #172	H	W 93–69	−1.5	W+22.5	156.0	O162	140.7	104.4	66.1
Feb 12	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	A	W 85–68	−4.0	W+13.0	154.0	U153	135.3	108.3	62.8
Feb 7	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	W 72–66	+3.5	W+9.5	144.0	U138	111.5	102.2	64.6
Feb 4	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	W 72–66	+1.5	W+7.5	147.0	U138	105.0	96.2	68.6
Jan 31	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	L 71–83	+2.5	L−9.5	144.5	O154	101.6	118.8	69.9

IU Indy

Against the spread

Season

12-17-1

Home

5-7

Road

7-9-1

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −1.6

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

13-16-1

Home

4-8

Road

9-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.4

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 2	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	A	L 93–101	+1.0	L−7.0	169.5	O194	112.1	121.7	83.0
Feb 28	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	L 81–87	+1.0	L−5.0	160.5	O168	116.4	125.0	69.6
Feb 25	OaklandAdjEM #172	H	L 74–86	+5.5	L−6.5	167.5	U160	101.9	118.5	72.6
Feb 19	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	L 73–85	+12.0	P0.0	160.5	U158	102.5	119.3	71.2
Feb 15	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	L 78–83	+6.5	W+1.5	158.5	O161	104.1	110.7	75.0
Feb 12	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	L 81–84	+6.0	W+3.0	164.5	O165	114.6	118.8	70.7
Feb 10	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	H	L 88–92	+2.0	L−2.0	158.0	O180	113.6	118.7	77.5
Feb 7	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 82–74	−2.5	W+5.5	168.5	U156	109.3	98.7	75.0
Jan 30	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	L 76–85	+10.5	W+1.5	154.0	O161	103.7	116.0	73.3
Jan 28	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 58–74	+8.5	L−7.5	159.5	U132	97.3	124.2	59.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Robert MorrisIU Indy

Efficiency

110.0

106.3

108.4

114.9

66.4

72.5

—

Shooting

54.9%

52.2%

53.5%

54.8%

38.0%

32.4%

69.4%

72.1%

28.0%

21.7%

Ball control & glass

18.6%

15.9%

19.2%

37.5%

28.7%

28.8%

35.6%

10.3%

10.1%

10.0%

7.9%

Style

40.7%

42.1%

43.9%

48.0%

8.4%

15.6%

62.8%

61.9%

32.8%

38.0%

Roster

2.82

2.64

6'5.2"

6'4.6"

84.8%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Robert Morris

Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 77.0%

Lost

DeSean Goode 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg · transferred to Miami

Added

Tanner O'Grady no D1 minutes last season
Vasilije Serafimoski no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

IU Indy

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Jan 28	2025-26	IU Indy 58 – 74 Robert Morris
Thu, Jan 15	2025-26	Robert Morris 93 – 96 IU Indy

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.