CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJoel & Diane Bloom Wellness and Events Center, Newark, NJ
Navy
Efficiency #104
2025-26: 26-8 · 18-2 conf
@
NJIT
Efficiency #331
2025-26: 16-17 · 11-7 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · 7:00 PM ET
72.5
win 68%
Projected
67.1
win 32%
No line posted yet.
Model: NAVY −5.4 · total 139.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: NJIT 68.7, Navy 66.8 → 67.2 possessions
−2.3
NJIT offense vs Navy defense
−7.8
Navy offense vs NJIT defense
+1.5
Projected total
139.6
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
NJIT offense vs Navy defense
−7.8
Navy offense vs NJIT defense
−1.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Navy by 5.4
5.4
Navy side ◂▸ NJIT side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help NJIT.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NJIT is the faster team (67.9, #204 of 365) and Navy the slower (65.2, #327). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.6
model
Projected team totals
72.5 / 67.1
Navy / NJIT
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.8#301
Navy
68.7#140
NJIT

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageNJIT
Where NJIT struggles: shooting
NJIT shoots an effective 46.7% (#342); Navy allows 48.3% (#42). Expect about 47.1%, 4.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
NJIT averages 67.9 possessions per 40, Navy 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassNJIT
NJIT gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.1% is worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions against NJIT's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (NJIT, Navy's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Navy at about 35.2% of its shots from three, NJIT about 44.2%.
Navy has the ball
OffenseNJIT allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #100
50.0% #99
+0.6 pt/100
16.8% #190
16.2% #210
+0.4 pt/100
31.9% #126
32.1% #264
+1.2 pt/100
38.8% #82
37.9% #258
+0.4 pt/100
73.6% #145
—
+0.1 pt/100
Navy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.7 pts/100
NJIT has the ball
OffenseNavy allowsvs D1 avg
46.7% #342
48.3% #42
-5.9 pt/100
17.1% #210
18.3% #83
-1.4 pt/100
26.2% #316
27.4% #49
-2.7 pt/100
33.2% #233
26.0% #13
-0.8 pt/100
70.5% #253
—
-0.2 pt/100
NJIT net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -11.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Navyoffense vsNJITdefense
Share of shots by zone
Navy shoots
NJIT allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.8%#12357.8%#14258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)48.4%#1943.7%#26139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.5%#17230.7%#738.0%
Three35.8%#6432.3%#7933.7%
NJIToffense vsNavydefense
Share of shots by zone
NJIT shoots
Navy allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.7%#32461.7%#29558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15236.1%#9139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17538.0%#15938.0%
Three30.4%#33630.0%#733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Navy
+6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#14 of 365
Off reb %
31.9%
#126
Def reb %
72.6%
#49
Turnover %
16.8%
#190
Forced TO %
18.3%
#83
FT rate
38.8%
#82
FT allowed
26.0%
#13
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed+2.4
NJIT
−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#316 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#316
Def reb %
67.9%
#264
Turnover %
17.1%
#210
Forced TO %
16.2%
#210
FT rate
33.2%
#233
FT allowed
37.9%
#258
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn−0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.7

Navy has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.0 (#14 of 365) to NJIT’s −3.5 (#316).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Navy2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Navy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Austin BenigniGSr5'11"34-3436.118.03.44.42.849.2%44.1%4.088.0%31.6%
99Aidan KehoeCSr6'11"34-3433.615.210.92.41.873.1%—0.047.0%23.6%
10Jinwoo KimGJr6'3"34-3330.59.93.11.80.950.0%40.6%4.183.6%20.1%
11Donovan DraperFSr6'6"32-1626.98.76.62.51.846.6%11.6%1.379.3%22.8%
21Jordan PennickGJr6'0"34-2024.67.22.11.41.246.3%31.2%4.174.6%21.1%
30Mike WoodsFSr6'4"34-3122.46.64.21.60.949.5%28.9%1.378.4%19.3%
2Cam ColeGJr6'2"34-019.16.11.91.60.955.7%38.5%2.875.9%19.8%
7David BurnettGSo6'4"18-06.51.71.20.40.354.3%25.0%0.245.5%17.3%
8Sam KristGSr6'5"15-13.51.20.40.10.364.3%40.0%0.7—20.9%
42Cooper JacksonFSo6'7"17-02.90.90.50.10.162.5%0.0%0.160.0%18.2%
0Nyles HowardGJr6'4"11-03.51.50.90.60.350.0%0.0%0.275.0%25.6%
14Cam CormanyGSr6'0"14-12.71.10.30.10.263.6%44.4%0.6100.0%23.3%
25Jerry Ashley Jr.FFr6'8"9-03.41.11.30.00.266.7%—0.050.0%20.1%
3Julian GabbidonGJr6'3"7-01.61.10.40.00.060.0%—0.0100.0%33.2%
20Matt GaffneyGFr5'11"4-02.00.50.50.30.30.0%—0.0100.0%23.2%
77Owen GrayFSo6'9"4-02.00.50.30.00.0——0.0100.0%7.4%
33Tobi RajiFSo6'7"1-02.00.01.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
40C.J. KearnsFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Colin PollockFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
18Davyn de JonghGSo6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
32Jordan McConnellCFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
16Julien KingGSo6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
35Luke MorganFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Reiss WhitakerFJr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Steven McLeodGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
NavyNJIT
Efficiency
108.5
100.5
104.9
110.6
66.8
68.7
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
46.7%
52.7%
47.5%
35.8%
30.4%
73.6%
70.5%
38.8%
33.2%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
17.1%
18.3%
16.2%
31.9%
26.2%
27.4%
32.1%
9.2%
9.6%
7.8%
9.0%
Style
33.1%
40.1%
44.8%
40.9%
11.6%
12.9%
61.2%
45.7%
25.5%
33.0%
Roster
3.56
2.09
6'3.7"
6'4.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Navy
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Navy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

NJIT
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted NJIT's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 222025-26NJIT 70 – 86 Navy

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.