CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameDraddy Gymnasium, Riverdale, NY
Saint Peter's
Efficiency #225
2025-26: 17-12 · 14-7 conf
@
Manhattan
Efficiency #328
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-13 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · 7:00 PM ET
74.0
win 54%
Projected
73.0
win 46%
No line posted yet.
Model: SPU −1.0 · total 147.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Manhattan 68.7, Saint Peter's 67.1 → 67.4 possessions
−1.9
Manhattan offense vs Saint Peter's defense
−2.1
Saint Peter's offense vs Manhattan defense
+2.8
Projected total
147.0
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Manhattan offense vs Saint Peter's defense
−2.1
Saint Peter's offense vs Manhattan defense
−2.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Saint Peter's by 1.0
1.0
Saint Peter's side ◂▸ Manhattan side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Manhattan.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Manhattan is the faster team (68.1, #195 of 365) and Saint Peter's the slower (65.5, #316). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.0
model
Projected team totals
74.0 / 73.0
Saint Peter's / Manhattan
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.1#283
Saint Peter's
68.7#143
Manhattan

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageManhattan
Where Manhattan struggles: shooting
Manhattan shoots an effective 47.9% (#315); Saint Peter's allows 48.1% (#39). Expect about 47.7%, 3.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSaint Peter's
Where Saint Peter's scores: the offensive glass
Saint Peter's rebounds 37.0% of its own misses (#16); Manhattan lets opponents grab 37.0% of their own misses (#358). Expect about 38.2%, 7.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.7 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Peter's, Manhattan's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Saint Peter's at about 38.0% of its shots from three, Manhattan about 35.0%.
ClashManhattan
Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers
Manhattan (#52 in live-ball turnovers) against Saint Peter's (#7 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.4%. Historically Saint Peter's's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).
TurnoversManhattan
Manhattan turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Manhattan's offense.
Saint Peter's has the ball
OffenseManhattan allowsvs D1 avg
46.4% #347
53.9% #297
-2.1 pt/100
17.7% #249
16.7% #175
-0.5 pt/100
37.0% #16
37.0% #358
+4.7 pt/100
35.5% #163
25.7% #11
-0.7 pt/100
73.6% #148
—
+0.1 pt/100
Saint Peter's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100
Manhattan has the ball
OffenseSaint Peter's allowsvs D1 avg
47.9% #315
48.1% #39
-5.1 pt/100
15.6% #111
20.0% #22
-1.8 pt/100
28.6% #247
34.7% #330
+0.5 pt/100
34.0% #208
46.4% #354
+0.8 pt/100
79.6% #3
—
+0.6 pt/100
Manhattan net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Saint Peter'soffense vsManhattandefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Peter's shoots
Manhattan allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.6%#35158.5%#16658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.8%#19842.5%#23739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.2%#21642.7%#32638.0%
Three31.0%#32136.6%#33233.7%
Manhattanoffense vsSaint Peter'sdefense
Share of shots by zone
Manhattan shoots
Saint Peter's allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim50.2%#36051.7%#1358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.8%#8541.1%#21039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.9%#3839.6%#22738.0%
Three32.0%#28032.1%#6833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Saint Peter's
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#189 of 365
Off reb %
37.0%
#16
Def reb %
65.3%
#330
Turnover %
17.7%
#249
Forced TO %
20.0%
#22
FT rate
35.5%
#163
FT allowed
46.4%
#354
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−2.9
Manhattan
+0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#168 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#247
Def reb %
63.0%
#358
Turnover %
15.6%
#111
Forced TO %
16.7%
#175
FT rate
34.0%
#208
FT allowed
25.7%
#11
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−2.0
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers0.0
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+2.4

Manhattan has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.3 (#168 of 365) to Saint Peter's’s −0.2 (#189).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Saint Peter's2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
8Bryce EatonGJr6'0"29-2127.211.13.04.02.343.9%31.0%4.982.4%30.9%
15Bryson Wilsonat BinghamtonGSr6'5"28-2228.19.94.40.92.044.8%24.1%1.977.5%24.9%
7Elijah PerkinsGSr6'4"22-1925.43.92.91.80.836.3%0.0%0.555.6%13.9%
2Shaedon SimpsonGJr6'6"18-411.23.31.60.30.545.7%33.3%1.884.2%19.4%
3Trey Pattersonat RiceFSr6'9"13-08.11.41.60.00.430.4%22.2%0.766.7%17.7%
0Phoenix Glassnorat ToledoGSo6'0"6-06.33.00.80.30.353.3%33.3%1.0100.0%25.6%
17Bourgeois Tshiloboat Weber StFSo6'8"7-04.92.62.00.10.469.2%—0.00.0%24.0%
14Jonathan Noudjihidiat UC DavisCJr6'11"3-06.00.31.70.31.00.0%—0.033.3%16.6%
24Robert WilmoteGJr6'4"1-03.02.00.00.00.0100.0%—0.0—17.3%
23Akil WatsonFSr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Ken WalkerGSr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Mason SantiagoGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
4Xavier ThomasFJr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Phoenix Glassnor (from Toledo), Jonathan Noudjihidi (from UC Davis), Trey Patterson (from Rice), Bourgeois Tshilobo (from Weber St), Bryson Wilson (from Binghamton)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Saint Peter'sManhattan
Efficiency
105.4
105.7
108.1
115.7
67.1
68.7
—
—
Shooting
46.4%
47.9%
46.2%
47.8%
31.0%
32.0%
73.6%
79.6%
35.5%
34.0%
Ball control & glass
17.7%
15.6%
20.0%
16.7%
37.0%
28.6%
34.7%
37.0%
9.3%
8.2%
10.0%
10.7%
Style
38.7%
37.1%
39.9%
41.4%
17.0%
11.1%
53.2%
49.6%
36.5%
28.1%
Roster
3.54
3.05
6'3.5"
6'4"
26.5%
7.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Saint Peter's
Returning minutes: 26.5%Returning production: 21.7%
Lost
  • Brent Bland 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg · transferred to Miami
  • Jahki Gupton 24.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Zaakir Williamson 21.7 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • TJ Robinson 18.1 mpg, 9.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lucas Scroggins 16.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Adetokunbo Bakare 10.4 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Bryson Wilson from Binghamton · 25.4 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
  • Trey Patterson from Rice · 3.4 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
  • Phoenix Glassnor from Toledo · 1.1 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
  • Bourgeois Tshilobo from Weber St · 1.1 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
  • Jonathan Noudjihidi from UC Davis · 0.5 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
  • Xavier Thomas no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Manhattan
Returning minutes: 7.4%Returning production: 5.3%
Lost
  • Jaden Winston 35.3 mpg, 15.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Devin Dinkins 33.6 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Fraser Roxburgh 30.6 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Terrance Jones 28.2 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Anthony Isaac 23.8 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Marko Ljubicic 20.0 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Ben Tweedy from Colgate · 29.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
  • Josiah Sabino from Niagara · 19.6 mpg, 6.6 ppg last season
  • Ognjen Stankovic from Akron · 3.4 mpg, 1.2 ppg last season
  • Kevin Kearney from Saint Joseph's · 1.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
  • Liam McChesney from Creighton · 0.2 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
  • Jameson Borodawka no D1 minutes last season

Returns 7% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Feb 272025-26Manhattan 65 – 75 Saint Peter's
Thu, Feb 52025-26Saint Peter's 80 – 75 Manhattan

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.