CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCFSB Center, Murray, KY
Chicago St
Efficiency #342
2025-26: 7-25 · 5-14 conf
@
Murray St
Efficiency #108
2025-26: 20-13 · 12-9 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
70.9
win 10%
Projected
85.6
win 90%
No line posted yet.
Model: MUR −14.7 · total 156.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Murray St 71.2, Chicago St 67.2 → 70.1 possessions
+4.0
Murray St offense vs Chicago St defense
+7.5
Chicago St offense vs Murray St defense
−3.2
Projected total
156.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Murray St offense vs Chicago St defense
+7.5
Chicago St offense vs Murray St defense
+3.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Murray St by 14.7
14.7
Chicago St side ◂▸ Murray St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Murray St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Murray St is the faster team (72.3, #20 of 365) and Chicago St the slower (65.8, #304). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.5
model
Projected team totals
70.9 / 85.6
Chicago St / Murray St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#272
Chicago St
71.2#12
Murray St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageMurray St
Where Murray St scores: shooting
Murray St shoots an effective 53.8% (#70); Chicago St allows 56.7% (#354). Expect about 55.5%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashChicago St
Style match: 3-point volume
Chicago St rarely shoots threes (30.9% of its shots); Murray St runs teams off the line (27.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 24.8% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageChicago St
Where Chicago St struggles: shooting
Chicago St shoots an effective 45.3% (#358); Murray St allows 52.4% (#236). Expect about 48.4%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.
ClashMurray St
Style match: 3-point volume
Murray St takes 44.8% of its shots from three; Chicago St lets opponents take 50.8% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 51.1% — both habits push the same way.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Murray St averages 72.3 possessions per 40, Chicago St 65.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassMurray St
Murray St owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.2% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Murray St's offense.
Chicago St has the ball
OffenseMurray St allowsvs D1 avg
45.3% #358
52.4% #236
-4.1 pt/100
15.6% #113
15.8% #232
+1.6 pt/100
28.3% #255
31.3% #214
-0.7 pt/100
30.0% #311
32.2% #109
-0.5 pt/100
75.0% #84
—
+0.2 pt/100
Chicago St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.5 pts/100
Murray St has the ball
OffenseChicago St allowsvs D1 avg
53.8% #70
56.7% #354
+6.0 pt/100
16.3% #158
20.1% #20
-2.3 pt/100
32.6% #100
35.0% #339
+2.3 pt/100
38.6% #86
38.0% #261
+0.4 pt/100
75.5% #67
—
+0.3 pt/100
Murray St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Chicago Stoffense vsMurray Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Chicago St shoots
Murray St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim49.8%#36157.1%#11758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.0%#19540.2%#19539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.8%#23241.2%#28138.0%
Three32.1%#27536.2%#31033.7%
Murray Stoffense vsChicago Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Murray St shoots
Chicago St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.1%#9364.9%#35058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.9%#10531.0%#1939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.6%#9144.1%#34138.0%
Three35.0%#12035.6%#29033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Chicago St
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#232 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#255
Def reb %
65.0%
#339
Turnover %
15.6%
#113
Forced TO %
20.1%
#20
FT rate
30.0%
#311
FT allowed
38.0%
#261
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed−0.7
Murray St
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#103 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#100
Def reb %
68.7%
#214
Turnover %
16.3%
#158
Forced TO %
15.8%
#232
FT rate
38.6%
#86
FT allowed
32.2%
#109
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed+0.8

Murray St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#103 of 365) to Chicago St’s −1.0 (#232).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Chicago St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Chicago St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
23CJ RayFSr6'6"32-2731.113.54.71.51.347.8%37.2%3.585.2%28.3%
4Marcus TankersleyGSr6'5"30-2930.613.03.12.52.046.5%23.3%1.065.6%29.9%
3Doyel Cockrill IIIGJr6'2"28-924.411.82.62.01.049.4%36.4%5.883.3%29.7%
21Braelon BushGSr5'9"26-925.98.51.93.11.445.6%27.7%3.991.9%23.3%
10Corey SandsGSr6'4"30-2017.42.81.90.60.439.4%25.8%2.173.3%13.1%
8Stephen ByardFSr6'8"22-922.69.84.80.81.448.3%41.7%0.573.4%28.7%
9Malek RobinsonGFr5'11"32-2215.43.01.60.90.836.5%31.8%0.770.4%15.8%
22Dailliss CoxFSr6'6"32-2115.23.13.20.20.448.4%33.3%0.369.2%14.0%
15Joseph OwensFSr6'7"26-211.22.12.20.20.653.7%—0.062.5%13.5%
11Lionel Larvadain IIIGSo6'0"21-111.22.81.10.71.031.6%20.0%0.771.4%24.4%
5Chauncey GibsonGJr6'7"15-415.54.92.31.21.137.8%26.4%3.542.9%30.0%
6Daniel ZatsepinFJr6'4"25-28.70.91.40.10.235.2%50.0%0.150.0%10.1%
25Dakari ThomasGSo6'1"19-05.00.70.60.10.142.9%—0.063.6%8.3%
20CJ DelancyFSr6'9"6-29.21.71.80.30.344.4%—0.0100.0%12.4%
1Deshawn Jean-CharlesGSr6'7"4-38.50.81.30.50.00.0%—0.075.0%7.7%
12DaJuan BatesGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Greg SpateGJr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Chicago StMurray St
Efficiency
102.4
113.2
114.4
110.0
67.2
71.2
—
—
Shooting
45.3%
53.8%
44.0%
55.0%
32.1%
35.0%
75.0%
75.5%
30.0%
38.6%
Ball control & glass
15.6%
16.3%
20.1%
15.8%
28.3%
32.6%
35.0%
31.3%
8.4%
9.5%
8.7%
8.1%
Style
30.9%
44.8%
41.8%
40.4%
11.7%
12.0%
50.3%
49.1%
39.8%
38.1%
Roster
3.49
2.84
6'3.7"
6'5.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Chicago St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Chicago St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Murray St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Murray St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.