CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCurry Arena, Charlotte, NC
Coastal
Efficiency #241
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
@
Queens
Efficiency #191
2025-26: 21-14 · 16-5 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · 7:00 PM ET
74.3
win 31%
Projected
80.1
win 69%
No line posted yet.
Model: QUC −5.8 · total 154.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Queens 69.7, Coastal 68.1 → 69.5 possessions
+2.7
Queens offense vs Coastal defense
+2.7
Coastal offense vs Queens defense
+0.8
Projected total
154.4
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Queens offense vs Coastal defense
+2.7
Coastal offense vs Queens defense
−0.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Queens by 5.8
5.8
Coastal side ◂▸ Queens side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +5.9 against +5.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Queens.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Queens is the faster team (70.6, #68 of 365) and Coastal the slower (68.3, #189). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
154.4
model
Projected team totals
74.3 / 80.1
Coastal / Queens
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.1#200
Coastal
69.7#68
Queens

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageQueens
Where Queens scores: ball control
Queens turns it over on 14.8% of possessions (#54); Coastal forces turnovers on 12.3% of opponent possessions (#364). Expect about 12.8%, 4.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageCoastal
Where Coastal scores: ball control
Coastal turns it over on 15.2% of possessions (#82); Queens forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#277). Expect about 14.8%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Queens's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Coastal at about 42.4% of its shots from three, Queens about 42.7%.
ClashQueens
Strength vs strength: eFG%
Queens (#15 in eFG%) against Coastal (#18 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.0%. Historically Queens's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).
ClashQueens
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Queens (#13 in 2-point shooting) against Coastal (#10 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.7%. Historically Queens's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
ClashQueens
Style clash: 3-point volume
Queens takes 46.5% of its shots from three; Coastal runs teams off the line (35.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 42.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Coastal has the ball
OffenseQueens allowsvs D1 avg
47.9% #314
54.6% #319
-0.4 pt/100
15.2% #82
15.1% #277
+2.4 pt/100
26.9% #296
33.6% #308
-0.5 pt/100
32.3% #254
38.1% #263
+0.1 pt/100
73.1% #165
—
+0.1 pt/100
Coastal net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100
Queens has the ball
OffenseCoastal allowsvs D1 avg
56.4% #15
46.8% #18
+1.0 pt/100
14.8% #54
12.3% #364
+4.9 pt/100
30.2% #190
27.6% #52
-0.9 pt/100
35.4% #167
34.9% #174
+0.0 pt/100
74.9% #88
—
+0.2 pt/100
Queens net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Coastaloffense vsQueensdefense
Share of shots by zone
Coastal shoots
Queens allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.7%#32458.9%#18658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.3%#21550.5%#35739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.6%#24537.8%#15338.0%
Three33.5%#19636.5%#32533.7%
Queensoffense vsCoastaldefense
Share of shots by zone
Queens shoots
Coastal allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.2%#3248.8%#358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.8%#4245.2%#30239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.5%#9538.9%#19838.0%
Three35.7%#7432.8%#10533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Coastal
−2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#291 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#296
Def reb %
72.4%
#52
Turnover %
15.2%
#82
Forced TO %
12.3%
#364
FT rate
32.3%
#254
FT allowed
34.9%
#174
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−3.0
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.1
Queens
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#251 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#190
Def reb %
66.4%
#308
Turnover %
14.8%
#54
Forced TO %
15.1%
#277
FT rate
35.4%
#167
FT allowed
38.1%
#263
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.7

Queens has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.3 (#251 of 365) to Coastal’s −2.7 (#291).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Coastal2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Rasheed JonesGJr6'6"32-3236.214.84.62.91.549.1%36.7%6.180.7%24.8%
0AJ DanclerGJr6'2"32-3233.215.65.52.11.549.6%39.3%6.375.7%28.5%
5Joshua BeadleGSr6'3"32-3232.217.83.92.92.646.2%26.3%3.779.7%35.8%
21Reggie HillFSr6'7"31-3025.26.65.80.81.445.3%35.1%3.672.1%19.2%
4Nadjrick PeatFSr6'10"32-3223.14.35.70.11.168.6%—0.063.5%10.6%
1Tristan ThompsonGFr6'5"32-019.54.04.20.80.843.2%16.1%1.065.1%14.9%
3DaJohn CraigGSo6'1"32-012.64.51.50.40.553.5%37.2%2.988.9%20.9%
15Derrick GreenFSo6'9"31-010.62.12.90.20.465.7%—0.043.2%12.4%
14Jerry NgopotFSr6'10"24-28.52.22.30.10.241.4%28.1%1.30.0%19.2%
13Braeden MacVicarFSo6'11"23-07.52.72.10.10.343.3%29.6%2.368.8%25.1%
11Jackson KeilGSr6'2"6-03.70.70.30.50.525.0%0.0%0.5100.0%17.8%
30Charles DunlapGSr6'2"3-04.01.31.00.00.0100.0%—0.0—8.1%
20Connor MartinFJr6'4"3-03.70.00.70.00.00.0%0.0%1.3—17.7%
7Andre MulibeaGSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
12Devin BrownFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CoastalQueens
Efficiency
103.8
113.5
107.3
114.4
68.1
69.7
—
—
Shooting
47.9%
56.4%
46.1%
58.9%
33.5%
35.7%
73.1%
74.9%
32.3%
35.4%
Ball control & glass
15.2%
14.8%
12.3%
15.1%
26.9%
30.2%
27.6%
33.6%
7.9%
9.0%
7.6%
9.4%
Style
43.1%
46.5%
34.5%
43.6%
10.3%
13.2%
40.4%
54.9%
26.8%
32.2%
Roster
3.10
2.73
6'5.4"
6'6.2"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Coastal
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Queens
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Queens's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.