CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameGalen Center, Los Angeles, CA
Washington
Efficiency #59
2025-26: 16-17 · 8-14 conf
@
USC
Efficiency #97
2025-26: 18-14 · 7-14 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · TBD
75.1
win 45%
Projected
76.6
win 55%
No line posted yet.
Model: USC −1.5 · total 151.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: USC 70.5, Washington 68.1 → 70.4 possessions
+4.4
USC offense vs Washington defense
−1.7
Washington offense vs USC defense
+0.8
Projected total
151.8
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
USC offense vs Washington defense
−1.7
Washington offense vs USC defense
−0.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
USC by 1.5
1.5
Washington side ◂▸ USC side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.7 against a projected 151.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help USC.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, USC is the faster team (71.0, #53 of 365) and Washington the slower (68.0, #200). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.8
model
Projected team totals
75.1 / 76.6
Washington / USC
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.1#197
Washington
70.5#25
USC
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetDefenseUSC
USC's shot-blocking
USC ranks #9 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.9% of Washington's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageWashington
Where Washington scores: the offensive glass
Washington rebounds 34.6% of its own misses (#56); USC lets opponents grab 32.2% of their own misses (#269). Expect about 34.2%, 3.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (USC's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Washington at about 36.2% of its shots from three, USC about 34.3%.
AdvantageUSC
Where USC struggles: shooting
USC shoots an effective 50.4% (#225); Washington allows 50.2% (#108). Expect about 50.2%, 1.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.
Washington has the ball
OffenseUSC allowsvs D1 avg
51.2% #187
49.7% #89
-1.2 pt/100
15.3% #85
16.3% #198
+1.4 pt/100
34.6% #56
32.2% #269
+2.3 pt/100
30.1% #308
33.4% #139
-0.4 pt/100
76.4% #42
—
+0.4 pt/100
Washington net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
USC has the ball
OffenseWashington allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #225
50.2% #108
-1.6 pt/100
17.4% #228
14.3% #325
+1.5 pt/100
32.4% #113
28.5% #84
+0.3 pt/100
44.2% #8
31.0% #84
+0.3 pt/100
72.6% #182
—
+0.0 pt/100
USC net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersWashingtonoffense vsUSCdefense
Share of shots by zone
Washington shoots
33.6
10.6
21.4
34.4
USC allows
37.0
4.7
18.0
40.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.0%#96 | 56.0%#87 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.3%#115 | 44.6%#283 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.0%#15 | 44.3%#342 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.5%#307 | 30.9%#31 | 33.7% |
USCoffense vsWashingtondefense
Share of shots by zone
USC shoots
38.6
6.4
21.2
33.8
Washington allows
30.9
9.5
21.9
37.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.7%#128 | 61.6%#288 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.6%#184 | 37.0%#110 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.3%#179 | 39.6%#226 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#299 | 33.6%#163 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersWashington
+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#129 of 365
Off reb %
34.6%
#56
Def reb %
71.5%
#84
Turnover %
15.3%
#85
Forced TO %
14.3%
#325
FT rate
30.1%
#308
FT allowed
31.0%
#84
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.6
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+1.1
USC
+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#82 of 365
Off reb %
32.4%
#113
Def reb %
67.8%
#269
Turnover %
17.4%
#228
Forced TO %
16.3%
#198
FT rate
44.2%
#8
FT allowed
33.4%
#139
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+2.4
Foul shots allowed+0.5
USC has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#82 of 365) to Washington’s +1.2 (#129).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Washington2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Quimari Peterson | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-18 | 30.9 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 52.3% | 35.0% | 6.2 | 78.1% | 17.8% | |
| 9 | Wesley Yates III | G | So | 6'4" | 27-25 | 31.4 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 45.6% | 31.2% | 6.3 | 78.2% | 27.1% | |
| 8 | Bryson Tucker | F | So | 6'7" | 21-14 | 22.0 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 48.7% | 26.1% | 2.2 | 54.5% | 16.9% | |
| 23 | JJ Mandaquit | G | Fr | 6'1" | 22-6 | 19.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 49.5% | 28.2% | 1.8 | 70.0% | 18.0% | |
| 1 | Desmond Claude | G | Sr | 6'6" | 12-9 | 27.6 | 13.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 46.1% | 30.0% | 2.5 | 87.2% | 29.2% | |
| 24 | Lathan Sommerville | C | So | 6'10" | 22-7 | 14.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 44.5% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 73.2% | 19.5% | |
| 33 | Nikola Dzepina | F | Fr | 6'10" | 14-0 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 40.7% | 25.0% | 2.6 | 50.0% | 17.3% | |
| 41 | Jacob Ognacevic | F | Sr | 6'8" | 12-1 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 63.0% | 44.4% | 1.5 | 60.0% | 15.0% | |
| 4 | Jasir Rencher | F | Fr | 6'5" | 7-0 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 54.2% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 84.6% | 16.7% | |
| 3 | BJ Roy | G | Fr | 6'2" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 0.8 | — | 35.4% | |
| 7 | Christian Nitu | F | So | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Mady Traore | F | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
USC2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jacob Cofie | F | So | 6'10" | 32-32 | 30.4 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 55.3% | 31.8% | 2.1 | 60.5% | 19.5% | |
| 13 | Kam Woods | G | Sr | 6'2" | 20-17 | 31.4 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 44.1% | 16.7% | 2.1 | 61.1% | 20.9% | |
| 7 | Jordan Marsh | G | Jr | 5'11" | 28-0 | 18.3 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 49.7% | 35.7% | 3.0 | 77.8% | 23.3% | |
| 8 | Jerry Easter II | G | Fr | 6'5" | 28-7 | 17.9 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 45.5% | 23.5% | 0.6 | 74.4% | 17.0% | |
| 5 | Terrance Williams II | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-13 | 13.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 36.7% | 27.6% | 1.0 | 64.1% | 11.2% | |
| 0 | Alijah Arenas | G | Fr | 6'6" | 14-13 | 27.6 | 14.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 37.6% | 21.3% | 4.4 | 79.2% | 37.1% | |
| 33 | Jaden Brownell | F | Sr | 6'10" | 30-0 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 48.2% | 29.4% | 2.8 | 83.3% | 26.9% | |
| 9 | Ryan Cornish | G | Sr | 6'5" | 25-11 | 11.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 48.0% | 32.4% | 1.4 | 93.3% | 13.7% | |
| 1 | Rodney Rice | G | Jr | 6'5" | 6-6 | 34.0 | 20.3 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 48.9% | 38.5% | 6.5 | 74.4% | 32.8% | |
| 3 | Amarion Dickerson | G | Sr | 6'7" | 8-1 | 21.6 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 59.1% | 44.4% | 1.1 | 61.1% | 12.3% | |
| 12 | EJ Neal Jr. | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 0.6 | — | 28.3% | |
| 21 | Jonah Goorin | G | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 26.4% | |
| 18 | Patrick O'Brien | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 22 | Brit Burden | F | So | 6'7" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.4% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Washington2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Quimari Peterson | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-18 | 30.9 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 52.3% | 35.0% | 6.2 | 78.1% | 17.8% | |
| 9 | Wesley Yates III | G | So | 6'4" | 27-25 | 31.4 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 45.6% | 31.2% | 6.3 | 78.2% | 27.1% | |
| 8 | Bryson Tucker | F | So | 6'7" | 21-14 | 22.0 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 48.7% | 26.1% | 2.2 | 54.5% | 16.9% | |
| 23 | JJ Mandaquit | G | Fr | 6'1" | 22-6 | 19.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 49.5% | 28.2% | 1.8 | 70.0% | 18.0% | |
| 1 | Desmond Claude | G | Sr | 6'6" | 12-9 | 27.6 | 13.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 46.1% | 30.0% | 2.5 | 87.2% | 29.2% | |
| 24 | Lathan Sommerville | C | So | 6'10" | 22-7 | 14.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 44.5% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 73.2% | 19.5% | |
| 33 | Nikola Dzepina | F | Fr | 6'10" | 14-0 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 40.7% | 25.0% | 2.6 | 50.0% | 17.3% | |
| 41 | Jacob Ognacevic | F | Sr | 6'8" | 12-1 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 63.0% | 44.4% | 1.5 | 60.0% | 15.0% | |
| 4 | Jasir Rencher | F | Fr | 6'5" | 7-0 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 54.2% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 84.6% | 16.7% | |
| 3 | BJ Roy | G | Fr | 6'2" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 0.8 | — | 35.4% | |
| 7 | Christian Nitu | F | So | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Mady Traore | F | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Washington
Against the spread
Season
20-13
Home
9-7
Road
8-5
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −1.8
Covered 2 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
16-17
Home
7-9
Road
6-7
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +1.3
Over 6 straightOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | #23Wisconsin | N | L 82–85 | +6.5 | W+3.5 | 156.5 | O167 | 124.0 | 128.5 | 66.2 |
| Mar 11 | USC | N | W 83–79 OT | −3.5 | W+0.5 | 153.0 | O162 | 102.7 | 97.8 | 80.8 |
| Mar 7 | Oregon | A | L 79–85 | −1.5 | L−7.5 | 146.0 | O164 | 120.5 | 129.7 | 65.5 |
| Mar 4 | USC | H | W 91–72 | −5.5 | W+13.5 | 151.0 | O163 | 119.7 | 94.7 | 76.0 |
| Feb 28 | Wisconsin | H | L 73–90 | +2.5 | L−14.5 | 153.5 | O163 | 103.6 | 127.7 | 70.5 |
| Feb 24 | Rutgers | A | W 79–72 | −4.5 | W+2.5 | 140.0 | O151 | 111.9 | 102.0 | 70.6 |
| Feb 21 | Maryland | A | L 60–64 | −3.0 | L−7.0 | 143.5 | U124 | 105.7 | 112.7 | 56.8 |
| Feb 14 | Minnesota | H | W 69–57 | −7.0 | W+5.0 | 138.5 | U126 | 115.1 | 95.1 | 59.9 |
| Feb 11 | Penn State | H | L 60–63 | −12.5 | L−15.5 | 153.0 | U123 | 91.7 | 96.3 | 65.4 |
| Feb 7 | UCLA | A | L 73–77 | +5.5 | W+1.5 | 145.0 | O150 | 111.2 | 117.3 | 65.7 |
USC
Against the spread
Season
13-18
Home
6-9
Road
5-6
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −7.8
Missed the spread 7 straightCovered 2 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-13-1
Home
10-5
Road
5-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +4.2
Over 4 straightOver in 7 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Washington | N | L 79–83 OT | +3.5 | L−0.5 | 153.0 | O162 | 97.8 | 102.7 | 80.8 |
| Mar 7 | UCLA | H | L 68–89 | +5.0 | L−16.0 | 151.0 | O157 | 108.7 | 142.2 | 62.6 |
| Mar 4 | Washington | A | L 72–91 | +5.5 | L−13.5 | 151.0 | O163 | 94.7 | 119.7 | 76.0 |
| Feb 28 | #12Nebraska | H | L 67–82 | +5.0 | L−10.0 | 148.5 | O149 | 97.3 | 119.1 | 68.8 |
| Feb 24 | UCLA | A | L 62–81 | +7.0 | L−12.0 | 150.5 | U143 | 94.5 | 123.4 | 65.6 |
| Feb 21 | Oregon | H | L 70–71 | −5.0 | L−6.0 | 149.5 | U141 | 99.8 | 101.3 | 70.1 |
| Feb 18 | #10Illinois | H | L 65–101 | +9.0 | L−27.0 | 152.5 | O166 | 91.0 | 141.4 | 71.4 |
| Feb 11 | Ohio State | A | L 82–89 | +8.0 | W+1.0 | 152.5 | O171 | 111.9 | 121.5 | 73.3 |
| Feb 8 | Penn State | A | W 77–75 | −3.0 | L−1.0 | 157.0 | U152 | 106.4 | 103.7 | 72.3 |
| Feb 3 | Indiana | H | W 81–75 | +1.5 | W+7.5 | 152.5 | O156 | 111.5 | 103.2 | 72.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeWashingtonUSC
Efficiency
112.6
109.7
104.8
105.5
68.1
70.5
—
—
Shooting
51.2%
50.4%
53.4%
51.8%
31.5%
31.7%
76.4%
72.6%
30.1%
44.2%
Ball control & glass
15.3%
17.4%
14.3%
16.3%
34.6%
32.4%
28.5%
32.2%
8.2%
10.2%
8.7%
8.3%
Style
34.6%
34.1%
47.7%
42.7%
14.1%
12.8%
49.4%
56.5%
26.0%
30.8%
Roster
2.62
2.79
6'4.3"
6'5.7"
56.8%
68.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputWashington
Returning minutes: 56.8%Returning production: 42.5%
Lost
- Hannes Steinbach 31.4 mpg, 16.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zoom Diallo 29.6 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- Franck Kepnang 18.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- Courtland Muldrew 7.7 mpg, 2.0 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech
Added
- Christian Nitu no D1 minutes last season
- Mady Traore no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 57% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).
USC
Returning minutes: 68.1%Returning production: 58.4%
Lost
- Ezra Ausar 29.8 mpg, 14.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chad Baker-Mazara 24.1 mpg, 15.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Gabe Dynes 11.2 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Added
Nobody of note.
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 68% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Mar 11 | 2025-26 | USC 79 – 83 Washington(N) |
| Wed, Mar 4 | 2025-26 | USC 72 – 91 Washington |
| Sat, Dec 6 | 2025-26 | Washington 84 – 76 USC |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.