CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCabot Center, Boston, MA

Holy Cross

Efficiency #325

2025-26: 11-22 · 6-14 conf

Northeastern

Efficiency #274

2025-26: 7-24 · 3-17 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · TBD

72.6

win 29%

Projected

79.0

win 71%

No line posted yet.

Model: NE −6.4 · total 151.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Northeastern 69.8, Holy Cross 67.1 → 68.6 possessions

+0.5

Northeastern offense vs Holy Cross defense

+2.6

Holy Cross offense vs Northeastern defense

+0.2

Projected total

151.6

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Northeastern offense vs Holy Cross defense

+2.6

Holy Cross offense vs Northeastern defense

−0.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Northeastern by 6.4

6.4

Holy Cross side ◂▸ Northeastern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.5 against a projected 151.6, and the margin steps add to +6.3 against +6.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Northeastern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Northeastern is the faster team (69.6, #108 of 365) and Holy Cross the slower (65.8, #302). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.6

model

Projected team totals

72.6 / 79.0

Holy Cross / Northeastern

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.1#280

Holy Cross

69.8#63

Northeastern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageHoly Cross

Where Holy Cross struggles: the offensive glass

Holy Cross rebounds 21.9% of its own misses (#356); Northeastern lets opponents grab 30.2% of their own misses (#169). Expect about 24.3%, 6.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageNortheastern

Where Northeastern scores: shooting

Northeastern shoots an effective 52.4% (#130); Holy Cross allows 54.8% (#324). Expect about 53.7%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversNortheastern

Northeastern protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for Northeastern's offense.

GlassNortheastern

Northeastern gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.6% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against Northeastern's offense.

ClashNortheastern

Style match: paint scoring

Northeastern scores 47.0% of its points in the paint; Holy Cross gives up 47.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.5% — both habits push the same way.

Holy Cross has the ball

OffenseNortheastern allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #248

56.4% #351

+2.5 pt/100

15.3% #86

16.8% #170

+1.0 pt/100

21.9% #356

30.2% #169

-3.7 pt/100

31.5% #268

41.9% #320

+0.3 pt/100

77.2% #29

—

+0.4 pt/100

Holy Cross net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100

Northeastern has the ball

OffenseHoly Cross allowsvs D1 avg

52.4% #130

54.8% #324

+3.5 pt/100

16.4% #162

14.1% #332

+2.4 pt/100

27.3% #286

27.0% #37

-2.3 pt/100

29.4% #324

27.6% #30

-0.9 pt/100

69.0% #299

—

-0.3 pt/100

Northeastern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Holy Crossoffense vsNortheasterndefense

Share of shots by zone

Holy Cross shoots

33.1

8.5

22.4

36.0

Northeastern allows

43.5

6.2

14.9

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.6%#310	63.5%#335	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.2%#49	45.5%#314	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	46.0%#7	47.9%#364	38.0%
Three	32.5%#252	35.8%#297	33.7%

Northeasternoffense vsHoly Crossdefense

Share of shots by zone

Northeastern shoots

42.0

5.9

15.1

37.1

Holy Cross allows

41.5

6.4

13.3

38.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#103	63.4%#333	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.7%#249	50.0%#354	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.7%#157	43.3%#332	38.0%
Three	33.7%#187	34.0%#181	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Holy Cross

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#248 of 365

Off reb %

21.9%

#356

Def reb %

73.0%

#37

Turnover %

15.3%

#86

Forced TO %

14.1%

#332

FT rate

31.5%

#268

FT allowed

27.6%

#30

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.8

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Northeastern

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#321 of 365

Off reb %

27.3%

#286

Def reb %

69.8%

#169

Turnover %

16.4%

#162

Forced TO %

16.8%

#170

FT rate

29.4%

#324

FT allowed

41.9%

#320

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.7

Holy Cross has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.3 (#248 of 365) to Northeastern’s −3.7 (#321).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Holy Cross2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Gabe Warren	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.6	12.5	4.5	1.5	1.3	52.4%	33.7%	2.6	73.1%	23.5%
0	Tyler Boston	G	So	6'0"	32-32	32.0	14.2	3.7	3.6	1.8	49.7%	35.9%	4.0	82.3%	27.2%
2	DeAndre Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-18	25.5	7.9	3.2	1.8	1.4	48.1%	31.1%	2.7	81.0%	21.7%
23	Aidan Richard	F	So	6'6"	30-24	27.2	5.2	4.1	0.8	0.8	38.9%	22.3%	3.7	51.4%	16.1%
30	Joe Nugent	G	Jr	6'6"	21-21	29.7	11.8	3.6	0.7	0.9	59.1%	40.7%	5.6	87.2%	21.2%
4	John St. Germain III	G	Jr	6'1"	31-0	15.5	4.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	48.6%	36.0%	0.8	78.7%	18.8%
34	Declan Ryan	F	Jr	6'8"	26-4	13.5	4.9	2.2	0.7	1.2	55.2%	25.0%	0.5	62.5%	24.9%
1	Will Aljancic	F	Jr	6'6"	17-0	11.8	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.9	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	30.0%	21.7%
22	Chuck Hare	F	So	6'10"	24-3	7.7	2.2	1.7	0.1	0.3	46.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	19.7%
5	Jaden Kirkwood	G	Sr	6'5"	16-1	6.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.2	34.6%	16.7%	0.4	—	9.2%
11	Jude Haigh	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	6.9	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	37.0%	27.3%	1.7	100.0%	20.8%
15	Tim Finau	F	Fr	6'11"	8-0	2.3	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	28.7%
33	Austin Mejia	G	So	6'3"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	4.8%
25	Ethan Clark	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	5.9%
3	Ben Capron	G	Sr	6'0"	3-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northeastern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Mike Loughnane	G	Jr	6'4"	31-23	30.9	10.2	2.9	3.8	1.6	52.7%	35.1%	3.6	78.8%	20.0%
8	William Kermoury	G	Jr	6'5"	27-24	26.9	13.1	3.2	2.3	1.4	57.9%	40.2%	6.8	71.7%	26.7%
7	Youri Fritz	F	Sr	6'9"	25-23	25.9	9.8	5.4	1.5	1.6	59.8%	33.3%	0.1	52.1%	22.1%
1	Xavier Abreu	G	Fr	6'3"	29-9	21.0	12.6	2.7	1.0	1.1	50.3%	28.3%	3.2	75.6%	34.8%
13	Luca Soroa Schaller	G	So	6'7"	29-12	20.7	5.6	3.4	2.2	1.9	40.0%	22.6%	1.8	73.7%	22.0%
2	Ryan Williams	G	So	6'4"	28-10	14.7	7.4	1.1	1.6	0.6	62.3%	42.5%	2.6	90.9%	24.2%
21	Petar Pinter	C	Fr	6'11"	26-14	14.3	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.7	55.1%	—	0.0	55.0%	14.7%
9	Ty Francis	F	Fr	6'7"	24-5	15.0	4.5	2.6	0.4	0.6	52.9%	21.1%	0.8	57.6%	18.5%
0	Xander Alarie	F	Fr	6'8"	11-11	27.7	10.3	7.4	1.5	2.2	45.3%	26.3%	1.7	85.7%	24.1%
12	Liam Koelsch	C	Fr	6'9"	26-1	8.6	1.8	2.3	0.2	0.1	65.7%	—	0.0	8.7%	12.4%
10	Miles Newton	G	Fr	6'3"	9-7	16.8	5.4	2.0	0.9	0.8	58.3%	35.3%	1.9	70.0%	18.0%
22	Haris Elezovic	F	Sr	6'8"	17-0	8.1	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.4	45.7%	25.0%	0.5	85.7%	18.0%
3	LA Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	3-3	33.0	17.0	1.7	3.3	2.0	51.2%	27.3%	3.7	90.9%	31.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Holy Cross2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Gabe Warren	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.6	12.5	4.5	1.5	1.3	52.4%	33.7%	2.6	73.1%	23.5%
0	Tyler Boston	G	So	6'0"	32-32	32.0	14.2	3.7	3.6	1.8	49.7%	35.9%	4.0	82.3%	27.2%
2	DeAndre Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-18	25.5	7.9	3.2	1.8	1.4	48.1%	31.1%	2.7	81.0%	21.7%
23	Aidan Richard	F	So	6'6"	30-24	27.2	5.2	4.1	0.8	0.8	38.9%	22.3%	3.7	51.4%	16.1%
30	Joe Nugent	G	Jr	6'6"	21-21	29.7	11.8	3.6	0.7	0.9	59.1%	40.7%	5.6	87.2%	21.2%
4	John St. Germain III	G	Jr	6'1"	31-0	15.5	4.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	48.6%	36.0%	0.8	78.7%	18.8%
34	Declan Ryan	F	Jr	6'8"	26-4	13.5	4.9	2.2	0.7	1.2	55.2%	25.0%	0.5	62.5%	24.9%
1	Will Aljancic	F	Jr	6'6"	17-0	11.8	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.9	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	30.0%	21.7%
22	Chuck Hare	F	So	6'10"	24-3	7.7	2.2	1.7	0.1	0.3	46.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	19.7%
5	Jaden Kirkwood	G	Sr	6'5"	16-1	6.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.2	34.6%	16.7%	0.4	—	9.2%
11	Jude Haigh	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	6.9	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	37.0%	27.3%	1.7	100.0%	20.8%
15	Tim Finau	F	Fr	6'11"	8-0	2.3	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	28.7%
33	Austin Mejia	G	So	6'3"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	4.8%
25	Ethan Clark	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	5.9%
3	Ben Capron	G	Sr	6'0"	3-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Holy Cross

Against the spread

Season

16-15

Home

6-6

Road

9-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover 0.0

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-16

Home

7-5

Road

8-10

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.2

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 66–69	+5.5	W+2.5	142.5	U135	99.1	103.6	66.6
Mar 3	LafayetteAdjEM #319	A	W 82–77	+4.5	W+9.5	141.5	O159	121.4	114.0	67.5
Feb 28	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	L 62–76	−1.0	L−15.0	151.0	U138	97.9	120.0	63.3
Feb 25	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 63–78	+8.5	L−6.5	142.0	U141	99.0	122.5	63.7
Feb 22	BucknellAdjEM #334	A	W 72–63	+2.5	W+11.5	141.5	U135	109.4	95.7	65.8
Feb 18	LafayetteAdjEM #319	H	L 83–86	−2.0	L−5.0	139.5	O169	116.1	120.3	71.5
Feb 15	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	A	L 73–83	+4.5	L−5.5	145.5	O156	112.2	127.5	65.1
Feb 11	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	L 70–74	+8.0	W+4.0	143.0	O144	102.3	108.1	68.5
Feb 7	LehighAdjEM #273	H	W 76–67	+1.5	W+10.5	137.0	O143	117.2	103.3	64.8
Feb 2	Boston UAdjEM #237	H	L 64–72	+2.0	L−6.0	140.0	U136	110.1	123.9	58.1

Northeastern

Against the spread

Season

11-19-1

Home

2-10

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-11

Home

9-3

Road

8-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.4

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	DrexelAdjEM #214	N	L 77–84	+5.0	L−2.0	140.5	O161	112.0	122.2	68.8
Mar 6	NC A&TAdjEM #271	N	W 88–72	−2.0	W+14.0	152.5	O160	122.9	100.5	71.6
Mar 3	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	L 83–89	+4.0	L−2.0	149.5	O172	123.9	132.9	67.0
Feb 28	HamptonAdjEM #268	A	L 65–76	+4.5	L−6.5	146.5	U141	98.6	115.2	65.9
Feb 26	William & MaryAdjEM #127	A	L 77–84	+11.0	W+4.0	164.5	U161	96.4	105.1	79.9
Feb 21	HofstraAdjEM #69	H	L 68–82	+7.5	L−6.5	145.0	O150	106.1	128.0	64.1
Feb 19	DrexelAdjEM #214	H	L 61–70	−1.0	L−10.0	145.0	U131	91.0	104.4	67.0
Feb 12	William & MaryAdjEM #127	H	L 67–94	+5.5	L−21.5	167.5	U161	96.2	135.0	69.7
Feb 7	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	A	L 55–69	+4.0	L−10.0	153.5	U124	82.0	102.9	67.1
Feb 5	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 63–80	+9.0	L−8.0	153.5	U143	94.9	120.5	66.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Holy CrossNortheastern

Efficiency

103.6

107.7

113.1

113.7

67.1

69.8

—

Shooting

49.8%

52.4%

50.4%

53.6%

32.5%

33.7%

77.2%

69.0%

31.5%

29.4%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

16.4%

14.1%

16.8%

21.9%

27.3%

27.0%

30.2%

9.7%

9.3%

8.3%

9.5%

Style

37.3%

37.8%

41.4%

47.0%

10.3%

15.3%

44.7%

55.7%

27.9%

33.4%

Roster

2.63

2.26

6'4.3"

6'6.1"

87.9%

90.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Holy Cross

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 86.0%

Lost

Aiden Disu 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Northeastern

Returning minutes: 90.0%Returning production: 93.2%

Lost

JB Frankel 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Dec 3	2025-26	Northeastern 59 – 76 Holy Cross

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.