CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceESPNWatsco Center, Coral Gables, FLACC/SEC Men's Challenge
Alabama
Efficiency #18
2025-26: 25-10 · 13-6 conf
@
Miami
Efficiency #30
2025-26: 26-9 · 14-6 conf
Wed, Dec 2 · 9:15 PM ET
81.4
win 44%
Projected
83.3
win 56%
No line posted yet.
Model: MIA −1.9 · total 164.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Miami 68.7, Alabama 71.9 → 72.3 possessions
+8.6
Miami offense vs Alabama defense
+2.8
Alabama offense vs Miami defense
+5.0
Projected total
164.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Miami offense vs Alabama defense
+2.8
Alabama offense vs Miami defense
−5.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
Miami by 1.9
1.9
Alabama side ◂▸ Miami side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 164.6 against a projected 164.7, and the margin steps add to +2.0 against +1.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Miami.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Alabama is the faster team (74.2, #5 of 365) and Miami the slower (69.2, #137). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
72.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
164.7
model
Projected team totals
81.4 / 83.3
Alabama / Miami
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.9#5
Alabama
68.7#145
Miami

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Miami averages 69.2 possessions per 40, Alabama 74.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageMiami
Where Miami scores: the offensive glass
Miami rebounds 37.2% of its own misses (#14); Alabama lets opponents grab 32.8% of their own misses (#295). Expect about 36.3%, 5.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageAlabama
Where Alabama scores: shooting
Alabama shoots an effective 55.2% (#34); Miami allows 51.7% (#198). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversMiami
Miami protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 13.9% is worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions for Miami's offense.
ClashMiami
Style match: 3-point volume
Miami rarely shoots threes (31.9% of its shots); Alabama runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.7% — both habits push the same way.
ClashMiami
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Miami (#34 in 2-point shooting) against Alabama (#46 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.9%. Historically Miami's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
Alabama has the ball
OffenseMiami allowsvs D1 avg
55.2% #34
51.7% #198
+3.6 pt/100
13.1% #9
18.2% #88
+1.4 pt/100
32.4% #111
25.9% #19
-0.5 pt/100
36.0% #150
29.5% #50
-0.3 pt/100
76.7% #39
—
+0.4 pt/100
Alabama net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.6 pts/100
Miami has the ball
OffenseAlabama allowsvs D1 avg
55.3% #32
49.2% #73
+1.8 pt/100
16.2% #150
12.8% #359
+3.6 pt/100
37.2% #14
32.8% #295
+3.6 pt/100
37.1% #125
32.0% #103
-0.1 pt/100
68.3% #320
—
-0.4 pt/100
Miami net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Alabamaoffense vsMiamidefense
Share of shots by zone
Alabama shoots
Miami allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.8%#9859.8%#21958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.6%#8844.3%#27739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)45.7%#1037.3%#13838.0%
Three35.8%#6635.8%#29633.7%
Miamioffense vsAlabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
Miami shoots
Alabama allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.2%#3455.1%#6458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.6%#27536.3%#9839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.0%#5438.5%#17538.0%
Three34.9%#12733.8%#17033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Alabama
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#148 of 365
Off reb %
32.4%
#111
Def reb %
67.2%
#295
Turnover %
13.1%
#9
Forced TO %
12.8%
#359
FT rate
36.0%
#150
FT allowed
32.0%
#103
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+2.5
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Miami
+7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#7 of 365
Off reb %
37.2%
#14
Def reb %
74.1%
#19
Turnover %
16.2%
#150
Forced TO %
18.2%
#88
FT rate
37.1%
#125
FT allowed
29.5%
#50
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.2
Defensive rebounding+1.5
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers+1.0
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+1.5

Miami has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.2 (#7 of 365) to Alabama’s +0.8 (#148).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Alabama2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Amari AllenFFr6'8"32-2428.311.46.93.11.453.3%34.1%4.373.8%21.7%
22Aiden SherrellFSo6'10"34-3423.911.16.21.10.959.5%33.8%2.471.3%22.4%
2Aden HollowayGJr6'1"28-2728.416.82.83.81.559.9%43.8%6.086.4%27.3%
7Taylor Bol BowenFJr6'10"30-1119.16.34.20.50.651.0%30.2%3.279.6%18.0%
6London JemisonFFr6'8"33-1315.66.23.40.40.654.1%34.8%2.760.4%21.5%
15Noah WilliamsonCSr7'0"33-08.11.31.50.30.536.5%16.7%0.964.3%14.7%
1Jalil BetheaGSo6'5"26-08.03.91.70.50.547.5%31.4%2.080.6%27.6%
4Davion HannahGFr6'6"10-012.73.31.90.81.053.8%36.4%1.162.5%16.4%
10Keitenn BristowFSo6'10"10-112.63.64.00.50.837.9%11.1%0.973.3%20.0%
11Preston Murphy Jr.GJr6'1"6-02.50.30.70.50.20.0%0.0%0.3100.0%17.8%
25Jacob MartinFSo—9-01.40.30.10.10.0100.0%—0.050.0%8.1%
34Collins OnyejiakaCFr6'11"2-05.51.03.00.01.050.0%—0.00.0%22.7%
31Jack FaganGSo—1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
30Klark JamesGSr—1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
AlabamaMiami
Efficiency
120.7
115.9
104.9
103.2
71.9
68.7
—
—
Shooting
55.2%
55.3%
57.0%
56.7%
35.8%
34.9%
76.7%
68.3%
36.0%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
13.1%
16.2%
12.8%
18.2%
32.4%
37.2%
32.8%
25.9%
8.6%
9.7%
12.6%
10.2%
Style
54.3%
31.9%
35.8%
51.9%
14.3%
14.2%
54.3%
54.4%
33.9%
25.0%
Roster
2.08
3.04
6'7.4"
6'5.9"
62.0%
42.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Alabama
Returning minutes: 62.0%Returning production: 60.6%
Lost
  • Labaron Philon Jr. 29.1 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Houston Mallette 23.3 mpg, 6.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Latrell Wrightsell Jr. 21.0 mpg, 10.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Charles Bediako 3.1 mpg, 1.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Miami
Returning minutes: 42.5%Returning production: 45.1%
Lost
  • Tre Donaldson 34.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Ernest Udeh Jr. 26.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Tru Washington 24.3 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Timotej Malovec 14.1 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Noam Dovrat 7.3 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Salih Altuntas 7.1 mpg, 1.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Brent Bland from Saint Peter's · 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
  • DeSean Goode from Robert Morris · 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg last season
  • Acaden Lewis from Villanova · 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg last season
  • Nick Dorn from Indiana · 21.8 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
  • Somto Cyril from Georgia · 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
  • Robert Miller III from LSU · 18.8 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season

Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.