CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCam Henderson Center, Huntington, WV

UNC Wilmington

Efficiency #86

2025-26: 27-7 · 15-4 conf

Marshall

Efficiency #175

2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · TBD

75.3

win 48%

Projected

75.9

win 52%

No line posted yet.

Model: MRSH −0.7 · total 151.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Marshall 69.7, UNC Wilmington 66.7 → 68.1 possessions

−0.5

Marshall offense vs UNC Wilmington defense

+0.1

UNC Wilmington offense vs Marshall defense

+3.3

Projected total

151.2

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Marshall offense vs UNC Wilmington defense

+0.1

UNC Wilmington offense vs Marshall defense

−3.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Marshall by 0.7

0.7

UNC Wilmington side ◂▸ Marshall side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.1 against a projected 151.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marshall.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marshall is the faster team (70.7, #66 of 365) and UNC Wilmington the slower (66.1, #291). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.2

model

Projected team totals

75.3 / 75.9

UNC Wilmington / Marshall

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.7#307

UNC Wilmington

69.7#71

Marshall

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageUNC Wilmington

Where UNC Wilmington scores: the offensive glass

UNC Wilmington rebounds 35.3% of its own misses (#40); Marshall lets opponents grab 33.8% of their own misses (#316). Expect about 35.5%, 5.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Marshall, UNC Wilmington's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UNC Wilmington at about 39.0% of its shots from three, Marshall about 45.3%.

ClashUNC Wilmington

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

UNC Wilmington (#54 in shot-blocking exposure) against Marshall (#23 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.3%. Historically Marshall's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

TurnoversUNC Wilmington

UNC Wilmington protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.4% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for UNC Wilmington's offense.

AdvantageMarshall

Where Marshall scores: ball control

Marshall turns it over on 16.6% of possessions (#171); UNC Wilmington forces turnovers on 14.9% of opponent possessions (#295). Expect about 15.5%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashMarshall

Style match: paint scoring

Marshall gets only 37.7% of its points in the paint; UNC Wilmington protects the paint (39.1% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 40.3% — both habits push the same way.

UNC Wilmington has the ball

OffenseMarshall allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #220

50.3% #118

-1.4 pt/100

14.8% #57

16.3% #201

+1.7 pt/100

35.3% #40

33.8% #316

+3.1 pt/100

40.4% #54

41.1% #313

+0.8 pt/100

68.7% #306

—

-0.3 pt/100

UNC Wilmington net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.8 pts/100

Marshall has the ball

OffenseUNC Wilmington allowsvs D1 avg

54.8% #42

47.5% #30

+0.2 pt/100

16.6% #171

14.9% #295

+1.6 pt/100

31.9% #127

27.6% #51

-0.2 pt/100

29.2% #328

31.7% #99

-0.6 pt/100

73.0% #168

—

+0.1 pt/100

Marshall net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Wilmingtonoffense vsMarshalldefense

Share of shots by zone

UNC Wilmington shoots

35.7

9.4

16.2

38.7

Marshall allows

36.7

5.4

18.8

39.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.5%#145	60.2%#241	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.1%#327	35.8%#87	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.2%#308	34.0%#50	38.0%
Three	35.0%#124	33.6%#162	33.7%

Marshalloffense vsUNC Wilmingtondefense

Share of shots by zone

Marshall shoots

31.0

3.9

21.0

44.1

UNC Wilmington allows

31.4

8.2

18.0

42.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.8%#8	58.8%#182	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.8%#248	32.6%#25	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.9%#229	39.3%#215	38.0%
Three	36.8%#34	29.7%#6	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Wilmington

+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#23 of 365

Off reb %

35.3%

#40

Def reb %

72.4%

#51

Turnover %

14.8%

#57

Forced TO %

14.9%

#295

FT rate

40.4%

#54

FT allowed

31.7%

#99

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security+1.3

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed+0.9

Marshall

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#322 of 365

Off reb %

31.9%

#127

Def reb %

66.2%

#316

Turnover %

16.6%

#171

Forced TO %

16.3%

#201

FT rate

29.2%

#328

FT allowed

41.1%

#313

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn−1.5

Foul shots allowed−1.5

UNC Wilmington has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.0 (#23 of 365) to Marshall’s −3.7 (#322).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UNC Wilmington2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UNC Wilmington's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Nolan Hodge	G	Sr	6'7"	34-34	32.3	14.2	4.6	1.6	1.0	52.7%	39.3%	6.9	76.8%	25.1%
7	Greedy Williams	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.6	9.1	2.7	4.1	1.7	49.3%	34.3%	2.1	77.4%	19.3%
5	Noah Ross	G	Sr	6'7"	34-34	29.2	9.4	5.1	1.9	0.8	47.0%	25.6%	2.3	69.4%	21.1%
8	Christian May	G	Sr	6'5"	33-31	29.6	10.6	5.5	1.5	1.6	51.3%	35.2%	5.5	64.7%	23.9%
2	Patrick Wessler	F	Jr	7'1"	34-34	26.7	13.6	9.5	1.1	1.4	59.9%	0.0%	0.0	55.8%	28.6%
1	Madison Durr	G	Sr	6'5"	34-0	21.6	10.3	2.8	2.2	1.2	42.6%	31.9%	2.0	75.4%	30.1%
22	Gavin Walsh	F	Jr	6'8"	15-3	26.0	9.5	6.5	1.0	0.9	49.2%	32.6%	3.1	45.8%	24.0%
13	Makoi Mabor Makoi	F	So	6'11"	33-0	8.7	1.5	2.6	0.2	0.5	48.8%	0.0%	0.0	80.0%	13.7%
0	Jahnathan Lamothe	G	Jr	6'4"	19-0	15.0	5.4	1.7	0.7	0.5	54.6%	40.3%	3.5	53.3%	21.9%
10	Grady Whitt	G	So	6'3"	7-0	4.4	0.7	0.4	0.4	0.1	30.0%	20.0%	0.7	50.0%	13.9%
12	Makel Smith	G	So	6'1"	8-0	3.6	2.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	66.7%	40.0%	1.3	0.0%	27.7%
14	JoJo Fullwood	G	Sr	6'2"	8-0	3.0	0.1	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	15.9%
35	Adam Tokpah	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	CJ Luster II	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	Matija Prodanovic	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Marshall2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
50	Jalen Speer	G	Sr	6'1"	32-32	32.5	15.7	4.1	5.5	2.4	48.7%	36.4%	7.8	83.0%	30.4%
5	Noah Otshudi	G	Sr	6'2"	31-31	31.5	14.5	3.4	3.5	2.7	48.9%	30.0%	2.3	84.5%	29.0%
3	Wilson Dubinsky	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	18.8	5.0	3.2	1.2	0.4	49.6%	37.1%	3.3	77.4%	15.6%
15	Caleb Hollenbeck	G	Sr	6'4"	32-27	17.3	5.7	1.6	1.0	0.4	58.3%	39.7%	4.3	41.7%	17.5%
6	Landen Joseph	G	Fr	6'2"	31-6	17.8	7.9	2.5	2.1	1.2	59.2%	41.3%	3.0	70.8%	24.5%
13	Matt Van Komen	C	Sr	7'4"	22-20	20.9	7.8	7.6	0.6	1.6	73.7%	—	0.0	76.2%	18.7%
11	Erich Harding	F	So	6'10"	32-12	14.3	3.8	2.7	0.5	0.7	62.8%	0.0%	0.1	47.2%	15.5%
9	Shamarrie Hugie	G	Jr	6'6"	26-1	12.3	4.4	2.5	0.5	0.7	56.8%	41.4%	1.1	64.7%	20.4%
4	Drew Fuquay	F	Jr	6'8"	28-0	7.8	2.8	1.9	0.2	0.3	64.3%	41.7%	0.4	72.7%	17.5%
8	Bryce Slay	G	Fr	6'6"	24-0	8.7	2.1	1.1	0.6	0.3	41.3%	35.7%	1.2	81.3%	16.5%
0	Kai Spears	G	Jr	6'3"	15-0	4.9	1.2	1.1	0.4	0.1	31.3%	0.0%	0.1	88.9%	16.0%
14	Grant Moore	G	Jr	6'6"	2-0	3.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	33.3%	1.5	—	35.8%
1	Kaiden White	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Will Moore	G	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UNC Wilmington2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted UNC Wilmington's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Nolan Hodge	G	Sr	6'7"	34-34	32.3	14.2	4.6	1.6	1.0	52.7%	39.3%	6.9	76.8%	25.1%
7	Greedy Williams	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.6	9.1	2.7	4.1	1.7	49.3%	34.3%	2.1	77.4%	19.3%
5	Noah Ross	G	Sr	6'7"	34-34	29.2	9.4	5.1	1.9	0.8	47.0%	25.6%	2.3	69.4%	21.1%
8	Christian May	G	Sr	6'5"	33-31	29.6	10.6	5.5	1.5	1.6	51.3%	35.2%	5.5	64.7%	23.9%
2	Patrick Wessler	F	Jr	7'1"	34-34	26.7	13.6	9.5	1.1	1.4	59.9%	0.0%	0.0	55.8%	28.6%
1	Madison Durr	G	Sr	6'5"	34-0	21.6	10.3	2.8	2.2	1.2	42.6%	31.9%	2.0	75.4%	30.1%
22	Gavin Walsh	F	Jr	6'8"	15-3	26.0	9.5	6.5	1.0	0.9	49.2%	32.6%	3.1	45.8%	24.0%
13	Makoi Mabor Makoi	F	So	6'11"	33-0	8.7	1.5	2.6	0.2	0.5	48.8%	0.0%	0.0	80.0%	13.7%
0	Jahnathan Lamothe	G	Jr	6'4"	19-0	15.0	5.4	1.7	0.7	0.5	54.6%	40.3%	3.5	53.3%	21.9%
10	Grady Whitt	G	So	6'3"	7-0	4.4	0.7	0.4	0.4	0.1	30.0%	20.0%	0.7	50.0%	13.9%
12	Makel Smith	G	So	6'1"	8-0	3.6	2.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	66.7%	40.0%	1.3	0.0%	27.7%
14	JoJo Fullwood	G	Sr	6'2"	8-0	3.0	0.1	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	15.9%
35	Adam Tokpah	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	CJ Luster II	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	Matija Prodanovic	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UNC Wilmington

Against the spread

Season

16-15-1

Home

8-8-1

Road

8-6

Last 10

7-3

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-14

Home

8-9

Road

9-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −4.2

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	DaytonAdjEM #62	H	L 61–80	+3.5	L−15.5	138.5	O141	95.9	125.8	63.6
Mar 17	YaleAdjEM #57	A	W 68–67	+4.5	W+5.5	148.5	U135	104.5	103.0	65.1
Mar 8	CampbellAdjEM #208	N	L 70–85	−7.5	L−22.5	149.0	O155	97.8	118.7	71.6
Mar 3	ElonAdjEM #228	A	W 76–57	−5.0	W+14.0	145.5	U133	113.6	85.2	66.9
Mar 1	CharlestonAdjEM #165	H	L 76–79	−5.0	L−8.0	147.0	O155	117.9	122.6	64.5
Feb 26	NC A&TAdjEM #271	H	W 88–65	−13.5	W+9.5	147.5	O153	136.2	100.6	64.6
Feb 21	CampbellAdjEM #208	A	W 73–68	−2.5	W+2.5	150.5	U141	106.8	99.5	68.3
Feb 19	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	W 79–69	−7.5	W+2.5	145.0	O148	109.7	95.8	72.0
Feb 14	HofstraAdjEM #69	H	W 70–66	−2.5	W+1.5	137.5	U136	114.7	108.2	61.0
Feb 12	ElonAdjEM #228	H	W 65–54	−8.0	W+3.0	149.5	U119	108.0	89.7	60.2

Marshall

Against the spread

Season

10-20-1

Home

4-11-1

Road

6-8

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.3

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

19-12

Home

12-4

Road

7-7

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +12.6

Under in the last gameOver in 7 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	N	L 78–82	−3.5	L−7.5	166.5	U160	107.7	113.3	72.4
Feb 27	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	H	L 82–99	−7.5	L−24.5	168.5	O181	114.4	138.1	71.7
Feb 24	Old DominionAdjEM #242	H	W 97–88	−8.5	W+0.5	160.5	O185	134.5	122.0	72.1
Feb 21	CoastalAdjEM #241	A	L 75–79	−2.5	L−6.5	153.5	O154	99.5	104.8	75.3
Feb 19	App StateAdjEM #180	A	W 94–93	+3.5	W+4.5	143.5	O187	141.4	139.9	66.5
Feb 16	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	H	W 84–80	−5.5	L−1.5	151.0	O164	129.8	123.6	64.7
Feb 14	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	A	L 87–101	−2.5	L−16.5	162.5	O188	112.2	130.3	77.5
Feb 11	Old DominionAdjEM #242	A	W 81–79	−3.0	L−1.0	156.0	O160	114.7	111.9	70.6
Feb 7	#23Miami OHAdjEM #66	H	L 74–90	+2.0	L−14.0	164.5	U164	104.9	127.6	70.5
Feb 4	Southern MissAdjEM #218	H	W 81–77	−10.5	L−6.5	148.5	O158	122.1	116.1	66.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UNC WilmingtonMarshall

Efficiency

110.7

111.3

105.8

111.2

66.7

69.7

—

Shooting

50.4%

54.8%

49.1%

54.6%

35.0%

36.8%

68.7%

73.0%

40.4%

29.2%

Ball control & glass

14.8%

16.6%

14.9%

16.3%

35.3%

31.9%

27.6%

33.8%

7.8%

10.1%

7.9%

8.1%

Style

38.8%

44.3%

40.4%

37.7%

10.0%

15.3%

51.7%

56.5%

25.5%

32.6%

Roster

3.66

3.30

6'7"

6'4.6"

—

85.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UNC Wilmington

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted UNC Wilmington's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Marshall

Returning minutes: 85.4%Returning production: 80.3%

Lost

Wyatt Fricks 29.1 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Kaiden White no D1 minutes last season
Will Moore no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Dec 3	2025-26	Marshall 69 – 70 UNC Wilmington

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.