CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceBob Carpenter Center, Newark, DE

Bucknell

Efficiency #334

2025-26: 10-23 · 7-13 conf

Delaware

Efficiency #302

2025-26: 10-21 · 6-14 conf

Wed, Dec 2 · 7:00 PM ET

66.9

win 31%

Projected

72.7

win 69%

No line posted yet.

Model: DEL −5.8 · total 139.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Delaware 65.5, Bucknell 68.1 → 65.3 possessions

−6.5

Delaware offense vs Bucknell defense

0.0

Bucknell offense vs Delaware defense

−2.1

Projected total

139.6

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Delaware offense vs Bucknell defense

0.0

Bucknell offense vs Delaware defense

+2.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Delaware by 5.8

5.8

Bucknell side ◂▸ Delaware side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +5.9 against +5.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Delaware.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bucknell is the faster team (66.9, #247 of 365) and Delaware the slower (63.9, #356). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

139.6

model

Projected team totals

66.9 / 72.7

Bucknell / Delaware

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.1#202

Bucknell

65.5#356

Delaware

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Delaware averages 63.9 possessions per 40, Bucknell 66.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageDelaware

Where Delaware scores: shooting

Delaware shoots an effective 53.3% (#89); Bucknell allows 54.7% (#323). Expect about 54.2%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.2 points per 100 possessions.

GlassDelaware

Delaware gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 24.1% is worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions against Delaware's offense.

ClashDelaware

Style match: 3-point volume

Delaware takes 46.2% of its shots from three; Bucknell lets opponents take 45.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.9% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageBucknell

Where Bucknell struggles: shooting

Bucknell shoots an effective 48.5% (#304); Delaware allows 51.5% (#185). Expect about 49.8%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Delaware, Bucknell, Bucknell's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bucknell at about 44.6% of its shots from three, Delaware about 48.9%.

Bucknell has the ball

OffenseDelaware allowsvs D1 avg

48.5% #304

51.5% #185

-2.1 pt/100

19.0% #320

14.0% #334

+0.6 pt/100

27.0% #295

31.1% #206

-1.3 pt/100

29.8% #314

30.2% #62

-0.7 pt/100

76.8% #35

—

+0.4 pt/100

Bucknell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100

Delaware has the ball

OffenseBucknell allowsvs D1 avg

53.3% #89

54.7% #323

+4.2 pt/100

18.2% #285

17.9% #99

-1.9 pt/100

20.8% #362

31.3% #216

-3.8 pt/100

30.6% #291

35.3% #186

-0.2 pt/100

78.6% #10

—

+0.5 pt/100

Delaware net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Bucknelloffense vsDelawaredefense

Share of shots by zone

Bucknell shoots

39.5

6.2

12.0

42.2

Delaware allows

33.6

5.7

17.4

43.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#201	59.3%#206	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#265	38.0%#136	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.5%#336	36.1%#112	38.0%
Three	30.6%#328	35.1%#255	33.7%

Delawareoffense vsBucknelldefense

Share of shots by zone

Delaware shoots

33.1

6.3

14.6

46.0

Bucknell allows

33.5

6.5

13.6

46.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.4%#179	60.3%#245	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.6%#185	45.5%#309	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.0%#144	40.7%#268	38.0%
Three	36.8%#31	37.0%#344	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Bucknell

−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#310 of 365

Off reb %

27.0%

#295

Def reb %

68.7%

#216

Turnover %

19.0%

#320

Forced TO %

17.9%

#99

FT rate

29.8%

#314

FT allowed

35.3%

#186

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security−1.5

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed0.0

Delaware

−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#355 of 365

Off reb %

20.8%

#362

Def reb %

68.9%

#206

Turnover %

18.2%

#285

Forced TO %

14.0%

#334

FT rate

30.6%

#291

FT allowed

30.2%

#62

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.1

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Bucknell has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.4 (#310 of 365) to Delaware’s −5.9 (#355).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bucknell2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Achile Spadone	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	34.8	12.4	6.1	1.9	1.9	47.3%	29.7%	4.4	79.2%	23.9%
2	Jayden Williams	G	So	5'10"	33-33	32.6	7.5	2.9	4.0	1.8	39.4%	31.0%	3.5	82.8%	18.7%
22	Amon Dorries	C	Fr	6'11"	33-32	32.5	16.2	4.4	1.4	2.7	57.8%	33.3%	2.5	78.8%	29.2%
3	Aleksander Pachucki	G	So	6'5"	33-10	20.7	5.9	2.8	0.8	0.7	53.9%	35.9%	3.5	69.6%	17.5%
21	Pat Curtin	G	Fr	6'3"	27-19	25.1	12.8	4.3	1.5	1.8	47.8%	26.9%	4.4	80.2%	33.4%
4	Ruot Bijiek	F	Sr	6'9"	12-11	28.8	11.8	5.2	0.8	2.6	44.2%	28.4%	6.2	85.4%	29.2%
1	Jacob Meachem	G	Fr	5'8"	30-0	10.4	1.5	0.5	1.6	1.0	27.4%	25.0%	0.4	77.3%	17.5%
23	Grgur Brcic	C	Jr	6'10"	18-8	16.9	4.3	4.8	0.4	0.7	56.9%	—	0.0	46.2%	16.2%
10	Brandon McCreesh	G	Jr	6'4"	8-8	27.6	7.4	3.1	1.6	0.8	52.9%	37.5%	4.0	62.5%	16.2%
0	Patrick O'Brien	F	Jr	6'8"	21-3	9.8	2.2	1.2	0.1	0.2	39.7%	16.7%	0.9	70.4%	15.1%
5	Josh Fulton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	10.9	2.3	2.4	1.3	1.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.1	85.7%	12.7%
7	Matt Lange	G	So	6'2"	8-0	2.5	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.1	150.0%	100.0%	0.1	25.0%	11.0%
32	Kellen Welch	F	So	6'7"	10-0	1.9	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.0	28.6%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	23.9%
11	Brady Muller	F	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Delaware2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
00	Christian Bliss	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	39.8	16.7	5.2	5.9	3.1	51.5%	39.2%	5.5	84.8%	27.4%
5	Macon Emory	F	So	6'8"	31-31	37.1	11.3	6.6	1.2	1.7	49.8%	28.5%	4.9	75.4%	21.0%
4	Justyn Fernandez	G	Sr	6'5"	28-28	37.4	16.6	4.6	2.1	3.0	52.9%	40.3%	5.7	87.8%	29.6%
20	Alex Kazanecki	G	Fr	6'6"	31-13	28.7	5.1	2.1	0.6	0.6	57.5%	37.1%	3.1	72.2%	10.9%
44	Tyler Houser	F	Sr	6'9"	26-26	33.3	14.2	5.4	1.7	1.3	57.4%	38.3%	4.1	81.7%	24.6%
11	Jayden Taylor	F	Fr	6'8"	31-10	15.3	3.1	2.4	0.2	0.5	61.7%	33.3%	0.4	61.8%	12.4%
15	Houston Emory	F	Sr	6'9"	24-5	11.1	1.7	1.6	0.3	0.6	72.7%	100.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
1	Mason Ellison	G	Fr	6'4"	7-1	21.3	4.7	1.3	0.9	1.3	40.6%	16.7%	1.7	58.3%	18.1%
55	Jameel Brown	G	Sr	6'4"	4-4	23.5	9.8	2.8	0.8	1.8	46.9%	42.1%	4.8	75.0%	27.8%
35	Bouna Kebe	F	Sr	6'9"	14-5	5.7	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.1	42.5%	12.5%	0.6	0.0%	17.4%
21	Nnanna Njoku	F	Sr	6'9"	2-0	14.0	2.0	1.5	0.0	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	0.5	50.0%	25.0%
3	Cavan Reilly	G	Sr	6'4"	1-1	23.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	12.5%	0.0%	5.0	50.0%	26.2%
10	Brandon Baffone	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	2.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.4%
12	Alex McFadden	G	So	6'1"	4-0	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.4%
14	Lance Piper	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bucknell2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Achile Spadone	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	34.8	12.4	6.1	1.9	1.9	47.3%	29.7%	4.4	79.2%	23.9%
2	Jayden Williams	G	So	5'10"	33-33	32.6	7.5	2.9	4.0	1.8	39.4%	31.0%	3.5	82.8%	18.7%
22	Amon Dorries	C	Fr	6'11"	33-32	32.5	16.2	4.4	1.4	2.7	57.8%	33.3%	2.5	78.8%	29.2%
3	Aleksander Pachucki	G	So	6'5"	33-10	20.7	5.9	2.8	0.8	0.7	53.9%	35.9%	3.5	69.6%	17.5%
21	Pat Curtin	G	Fr	6'3"	27-19	25.1	12.8	4.3	1.5	1.8	47.8%	26.9%	4.4	80.2%	33.4%
4	Ruot Bijiek	F	Sr	6'9"	12-11	28.8	11.8	5.2	0.8	2.6	44.2%	28.4%	6.2	85.4%	29.2%
1	Jacob Meachem	G	Fr	5'8"	30-0	10.4	1.5	0.5	1.6	1.0	27.4%	25.0%	0.4	77.3%	17.5%
23	Grgur Brcic	C	Jr	6'10"	18-8	16.9	4.3	4.8	0.4	0.7	56.9%	—	0.0	46.2%	16.2%
10	Brandon McCreesh	G	Jr	6'4"	8-8	27.6	7.4	3.1	1.6	0.8	52.9%	37.5%	4.0	62.5%	16.2%
0	Patrick O'Brien	F	Jr	6'8"	21-3	9.8	2.2	1.2	0.1	0.2	39.7%	16.7%	0.9	70.4%	15.1%
5	Josh Fulton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	10.9	2.3	2.4	1.3	1.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.1	85.7%	12.7%
7	Matt Lange	G	So	6'2"	8-0	2.5	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.1	150.0%	100.0%	0.1	25.0%	11.0%
32	Kellen Welch	F	So	6'7"	10-0	1.9	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.0	28.6%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	23.9%
11	Brady Muller	F	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Bucknell

Against the spread

Season

14-19

Home

5-9

Road

7-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.1

Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-20-1

Home

5-8-1

Road

7-10

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total −0.8

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	NavyAdjEM #104	A	L 69–74	+14.5	W+9.5	132.5	O143	110.1	118.1	62.7
Mar 3	ArmyAdjEM #336	H	W 65–55	−2.0	W+8.0	144.0	U120	97.2	82.2	66.9
Feb 28	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 79–89	+4.5	L−5.5	139.5	O168	116.3	131.1	67.9
Feb 25	ArmyAdjEM #336	A	W 75–73	+3.5	W+5.5	142.5	O148	103.6	100.8	72.4
Feb 22	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	L 63–72	−2.5	L−11.5	141.5	U135	95.7	109.4	65.8
Feb 18	AmericanAdjEM #234	H	L 57–75	+3.0	L−15.0	140.5	U132	88.1	115.9	64.7
Feb 14	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 69–82	+5.5	L−7.5	137.0	O151	105.6	125.5	65.3
Feb 9	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 60–76	+6.5	L−9.5	136.0	P136	86.7	109.9	69.2
Feb 7	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	L 59–78	+5.0	L−14.0	141.5	U137	80.4	106.3	73.4
Feb 4	AmericanAdjEM #234	A	W 60–59	+8.0	W+9.0	142.0	U119	101.4	99.7	59.2

Delaware

Against the spread

Season

14-15-1

Home

6-7-1

Road

7-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +0.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14

Home

10-4

Road

6-8

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +13.9

Under in the last gameOver in 8 of 10 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	H	L 38–81	+2.0	L−41.0	132.5	U119	60.3	128.5	63.0
Mar 5	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	H	W 83–80	+7.5	W+10.5	148.0	O163	116.7	112.4	71.2
Feb 28	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	A	L 82–90	+12.0	W+4.0	143.0	O172	117.9	129.4	69.5
Feb 26	Jax StateAdjEM #215	A	L 70–80 OT	+7.5	L−2.5	134.0	O150	104.8	119.8	66.8
Feb 21	MTSUAdjEM #167	A	L 66–78	+10.0	L−2.0	137.5	O144	106.5	125.8	62.0
Feb 18	Western KYAdjEM #159	H	L 87–88 OT	+4.0	W+3.0	139.5	O175	125.3	126.7	69.4
Feb 14	Missouri StAdjEM #212	A	W 76–67	+8.5	W+17.5	135.0	O143	121.0	106.7	62.8
Feb 12	FIUAdjEM #200	A	W 68–66	+8.5	W+10.5	146.5	U134	101.9	98.9	66.8
Feb 7	MTSUAdjEM #167	H	W 89–88 OT	+4.5	W+5.5	133.5	O177	129.9	128.5	68.5
Feb 4	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	L 69–75	+10.0	W+4.0	132.0	O144	110.6	120.2	62.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BucknellDelaware

Efficiency

101.2

105.2

111.7

112.6

68.1

65.5

—

Shooting

48.5%

53.3%

50.4%

51.7%

30.6%

36.8%

76.8%

78.6%

29.8%

30.6%

Ball control & glass

19.0%

18.2%

17.9%

14.0%

27.0%

20.8%

31.3%

31.1%

11.1%

11.4%

11.5%

10.4%

Style

42.7%

46.2%

43.4%

36.8%

9.9%

6.9%

54.0%

52.3%

24.0%

15.7%

Roster

2.30

2.72

6'4.5"

6'6.4"

92.5%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Bucknell

Returning minutes: 92.5%Returning production: 96.3%

Lost

Quin Berger 15.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Miami

Added

Brady Muller no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Delaware

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Nov 3	2025-26	Delaware 70 – 78 Bucknell

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.